U.S. Industrial Cycles

This webpage provides supplementary material for the paper "The propagation of industrial business cycles" by Maximo Camacho and Danilo Leiva-León.

Evolution of univariate recession probabilities

The video shows the choropleth map of industries for the period 1991:Q1 - 2013Q2. The partitions of the map represent the U.S. industries and their size represents their share of the national employment. The darker is an industry the higher is the probability of recession for that industry during that quarter. Numbers used to represent industries are explained in Table 1 of the paper.

Evolution of kernel density estimates of pairwise business cycle distances

The video shows the density estimates of the cross industry distributions of pairwise business cycle synchronization for the period 1991:M01 - 2013:M04.

Evolution of multidimensional scaling map of business cycle synchronization

The video shows two dimensional scale map of the business cycle distances across the industries for the period 1991:M01 - 2013:M05. Numbers used to represent industries are explained in Table 1 of the paper. The closer two industries are in the map, the higher is their business cycle synchronization.