The FIFA World Cup draw took place last Friday, April 1, in Doha, Qatar. At the ceremony, the 32 teams qualified for the competition were drawn from four different pots and put into eight different groups. The tournament does not actually kick off for another 200+ days, with the first game being Netherlands-Senegal on November 21, 2022. However, now that the groups have been drawn, we have a bit more clarity about the teams competing and their possible paths to glory. It is time to react to the draw, make some early predictions, and analyze what could go down this November at World Cup 2022. 

The Host

We will start with the host, Qatar. In this article, we will not discuss the ethical and moral problems that come with Qatar hosting this World Cup, or the clear corruption in FIFA assigning this competition to Qatar in the first place. We will not discuss the thousands of workers who have died building the stadiums, or the fact that the World Cup is being played in November, but those are good things to keep in mind. In this article, we will analyze exclusively the variables on the field. Qatar is a difficult team to address because not much is known about their players, and, being the hosts, they qualified automatically. Qatar is undoubtedly one of the weakest nations in history to partake in a World Cup, being ranked 51st in the world at the time of writing. They have the lowest odds of winning out of every country in the tournament, and as of right now, I can’t see them being looked at as anything other than a free three points for all the teams in their group. (Wins equal three points,; draws equal one,; and a loss is zero points; the top two point-getters of every group move out of group play). All that being said, nothing beats the momentum and magic of a host country game, so let’s hope Qatar surprises us all…I guess? 

Notable Absentees

Starting in 2026, FIFA will change the number of teams playing in the World Cup from 32 to 48 but until then, there are still only 32 spots. Because of this, every four years, we enjoy the tradition of laughing at the teams that underperformed and disappointed their nation in failing to qualify for the World Cup. In South America both Columbia and Chile failed to qualify—Chile nownow failing to qualify for the second tournament in a row. Columbia ended sixth in the qualifying table, a disappointing showing after being successful in the last two World Cups, qualifying out of the groups both times. Many strong African teams also faced disappointment this year, partly because of underperformance, but also because of the mere five spots given to African teams by FIFA. The nation boasting arguably the best squad in Africa, Nigeria, missed out after losing to Ghana in the pivotal playoff game. Teams with stars such as Algeria and the Ivory Coast will also miss out, and, heartbreakingly, Liverpool star Mohamed Salah who led Egypt to the final of the African Nations Cup will also miss the plane to Qatar.

Finally, in Europe, some notable absent teams include Russia, hosts of the last World Cup, who were banned from this year's competition due to political sanctions. Sweden, quarter-finalists at the 2018 World Cup, did not qualify either. And, to my great joy, the biggest surprise of them all: Italy. After qualifying for the tournament fourteen times in a row, Italy is now facing two consecutive failures in World Cup qualification, losing to Sweden in 2018 and North Macedonia in 2022. The four-time winners and holders of the European Championship, Italy boast some of the best players in the world and have the reputation of being a “big team.”

However, contrary to so many others, I knew all along that this Italy team was nothing but fraudulent, undeservingly winning the EUROS in 2022. Now their flaws are out for everybody to see. Although World Cup qualifying disappointments are painful for the fans, and it is cool to see the best teams and biggest nations, who doesn't love a good underdog story and a nice upset? 

Dark Horse

A dark horse is a team that is underrated and not discussed much before the competition, but then highly overachieves in the tournament. Every World Cup has at least one; Croatia in the final last year, Costa Rica in the quarter finals in 2014, and Uruguay in the semis in 2010 are just a few recent examples. As the years pass and more money is funneled into the sport, we see the rising soccer level in countries all across the globe. Although we may not like all of the effects of this money in football — for example a World Cup in Qatar, we must admit that it makes the World Cup more exciting and unpredictable as more nations are able to field competitive teams. It also means there is a bigger chance of having a dark horse. The biggest favorite for dark horse this year, in my mind, would be Senegal. Winners of the African Cup of Nations earlier this year, Senegal is a complete team with some truly world class players. Goalkeeper Edourard Mendy, defender Kalidoui Koulibaly, and captain and star Sadio Mane leading the line are players that could make it into any team in the world. They were drawn in Group A alongside Qatar, Ecuador, and the Netherlands, so finishing in the top 2 should be more than attainable. Other dark horse candidates for me include Canada, who have qualified for the first time since 1986, finishing top of the North American table, above Mexico and the United States. South Korea and Uruguay are other teams I would keep an eye on as well. 

Awards

After all the games have been played and the trophy has been lifted, there are always awards handed out, such as top scorer, best player, best goalie, etc. Although these are individual awards that don’t mean nearly as much as the trophy itself, they are still honorable awards that every big player will have their eyes on winning. For top scorer I have narrowed it down to three players; France’s Karim Benzema, England’s Harry Kane, and Poland’s Robert Lewandowski. Among many others, all three are elite level strikers at the top of their game, so the award really could go to any of them. Karim Benzema is in absolutely incredible form, and will surely go deep in the tournament with France giving him the chance to score a lot of goals. Harry Kane, top scorer of the last two major tournaments and main striker/penalty/freekick taker is an obvious choice as well. Finally, Lewandowski is the player I have the most uncertainty in winning this award—not due to his ability as he is arguably the best striker in this generation, but because of his team, Poland. Lewandowski will be the main man but will he be enough to carry Poland to an unexpected deep run, which might be needed to win top scorer? I’m not sure, so I will have to go with the more unoriginal approach, I’ll go with Harry Kane for top scorer. For best player, many of the same names come to mind, along with other players such as France’s Kylian Mbappé, Belgium’s Kevin De Bruyne, Brazil’s Neymar, and of course Argentina’s Lionel Messi. This award usually heavily correlates with teams that win or at least make it far, and although I haven’t told you my winners just yet, this may give you a clue: I’ll go with Kylian Mbappé for best player. Finally, for best goalie (the least anticipated award as no one likes people who try to stop goals), I won’t overthink it too much and will just go with the player I think is the best goalie in the world: the Belgian, Thibaut Courtois. 

Favorites

At last, we get to the most exciting part: the teams with the best players and the highest expectations, the favorites to actually go out and win the whole thing. As in any knockout tournament, the best team doesn't always win, and to actually win it all, you must have luck as well as immense talent and determination. We’ll start with the team with the highest odds to win the World Cup at +450: Brazil. Five-time winners Brazil are the team with the most World Cup wins ever, and they come in off the back of their strongest qualifying campaign in history. However, Brazil has not won a World Cup since 2002, and has faced multiple humiliating defeats, like the one to Germany in which they lost 7-1 at home.

Captained by Neymar, Brazil still of course has one of the best squads in the world, with world-class players in nearly every position. I do find them to be a bit too Neymar-centric though, so when teams are able to shut Neymar down, Brazil isn’t as dangerous. However, as I mentioned before, they do have amazing players, and with the World Cup being in Qatar, it will be interesting to see if the warmer weather gives South American countries an advantage. Also from South America, Argentina are still captained by Messi of course, and boast some other great players, who, I’m sure alongside the whole country, will be doing everything they can to give Messi one last shot at winning a World Cup. Spain and Germany, drawn in the same group, are also strong teams, with elite coaches in Luis Enrique for Spain and Hansi Flick for Germany. Both teams have tons of experience, but also offer some exciting young talents.

On the other hand, Portugal is an underachieving team in relation to the strength of their squad. Led by Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal are really in the middle of a golden generation, but so far have not found a way to be successful. Similar to Messi, I’m sure the feeling in the Portugal camp will be to do everything to give Ronaldo the chance to win his first. England and Belgium are two extremely talented sides to keep an eye out for. England are just beginning their golden generation of young talents that they have coming through and Belgium is hoping to give their aging golden generation one more shot at international success.

Winners

All these teams mentioned are more than capable of putting together a World Cup winning run but in my opinion, all bias aside, although probably not, there is only one clear winner: France. Being holders of the 2018 World Cup, most people think it is unlikely that France will win it again as only two teams have ever retained the World Cup — Italy in the 1930s and Brazil in the late ’50s and early ’60s. However this French team is so strong, so equipped with every tool needed to win, that the only thing stopping them from retaining the title is themselves. They have the knowledge of how to win, having so many of the same players from four years ago, as well as new additions that strengthen the squad tremendously. They have stars of world football in every line in their team: Hugo Lloris in goal, Raphael Varane in defense, and N’golo Kanté and Paul Pogba in midfield. And, with the jewels on top of the crown in Mbappé and Benzema up front, France seem unstoppable to me. Mbappé and Benzema play perfectly together and complement each other in so many ways. They are arguably the two best players in the world. Having one of those players at your disposal seems great, but both? Unmatched. 

I am sure a lot will change between now and the World Cup in Qatar this November, including possible injuries, and many of these predictions will be completely inaccurate. But for now, we should enjoy the excitement of the World Cup getting closer, as we count the days until November 21, 2022, when the first ball will be kicked and the world’s greatest sports festival will begin.