Class B Week 9 Playoff Scenarios

Updated at 3pm 10/25:

Additional details on Gering's points and Ogallala vs. Alliance, some details I forgot to include on McCook's path to a home game, and how GINW's Thursday win over Lincoln Northwest changes the race for #16.

Intro

The regular season  is coming to a conclusion this week, and I dove into what's at stake in Class B, which I think year after year provides some of the best top-to-bottom competition for all 16 playoff seeds. There's a lot to play for with every team in contention, from the battle for the top seed to the race to be the last team in. I looked at how things could play out for the 19 teams still in contention depending on how the final regular season games shake out.

To do this, I put together a spreadsheet to calculate the playoff points, and ran it with all the different potential outcomes for the 8 most competitive and consequential games (256 different possibilities), and analyzed the results for every team. Those 8 games: Elkhorn North-Bennington, Omaha Skutt-Blair, Elkhorn-Norris, Gering-Hastings, Gretna East-Gretna, Lincoln Pius-Waverly, Ralston-Plattsmouth, and Scottsbluff-York.

Since the number of outcomes doubles with every game added, I had to make some assumptions on the other games, or determine if they had the potential to influence the race. These predictions, unless otherwise noted, predict Seward over Crete, McCook over Lexington, and Grand Island Northwest over Lincoln Northwest. It doesn't look like Platteview-Lincoln Christian or Lincoln Standing Bear-Beatrice will change the bracket.

Of course, plenty of Class B teams played teams in other classes, and a few in other states, which I've also had to make guesses on. Of consequence, and again unless otherwise noted, these scenarios are based on predictions of: South Sioux City over Omaha Buena Vista, Ashland-Greenwood over Omaha Gross, Mitchell over Hershey,  Ogallala over Alliance, and in Wyoming, Douglas over Torrington.

With that established, let's get into the possibilities!

Group 1 - Fighting for #1:

Bennington, Elkhorn North, Seward

Bennington (7-1):  The Badgers were in the driver's seat until Omaha Skutt ended their 46-game winning streak last Friday. However, even with that loss they still have a chance to pick up their fifth consecutive #1 seed. 

Step 1: Win over Elkhorn North

Step 2: EITHER of the following: Elkhorn over Norris OR Waverly over Pius

A loss puts the Badgers somewhere in the 3 to 5 seed range.

Elkhorn North (7-1): The Wolves win over Omaha Skutt two weeks ago put them into the race for #1 even after losing to rival Elkhorn High. Their route to #1:

Step 1: Win over Bennington

Step 2: BOTH of the following: Elkhorn over Norris AND Pius over Waverly

Seward (8-0): The Bluejays are Class B's lone undefeated remaining, and are favorites to complete a perfect regular season against 1-7 Crete. However, with a slightly lighter schedule by playoff points than the two B-1 District teams above, going undefeated might not be enough. Here's how Seward gets to #1:

Step 1: Win over Crete

Step 2 (Elkhorn North Wins): EITHER of the following: Norris over Elkhorn OR Waverly over Pius

Step 2 (Bennington Wins): BOTH of the following: Norris over Elkhorn AND Pius over Waverly

Group 2 - Hosting in Round 1:

Omaha Skutt, Scottsbluff, Waverly

Omaha Skutt (7-1): The Skyhawks victory over Bennington has already secured homefield for Skutt, but they are still looking to secure a second home game in the quarter finals when they face Blair.

With a win over Blair: seed 3-5, more often 3 or 4

With a loss: seed 5-7, with 6 being the most common

Scottsbluff (7-1): The Bearcats have already wrapped up the B-5 District title, but like Skutt they're looking to secure a second home playoff game as they travel to play the York Dukes

With a win over York: seed 3-5, more often 3 or 4

With a loss: seed 5-7, with 6 also being the most common

Waverly (6-2): The Vikings are a step behind the teams we've looked at so far, but could pick up a spot if results go their way. While there are no true safe matchups in the Class B playoffs, and certainly no friendly quarterfinal matchups to hunt for, in theory the higher the seed the better.

With a win over Lincoln Pius: seed 5-7, more often 5 or 6 than 7.

With a loss: If Hastings beats Gering, Waverly is #6. If Gering wins, #7

Group 3 - A Chance to Host:

Gering, Gretna, Elkhorn, Hastings, McCook, York

Gering (6-2): The Bulldogs are in an interesting place, in part because of their unique western schedule. The Bulldogs played only 4 other Class B schools, their B5 district opponents. Playing 4 C1/C2 schools and C1 sized Torrington, WY.  Gering has three opponents on the border between Points categories. Mitchell (4-4), would net the Bulldogs three extra points if they win over 2-6 Hershey. Ogallala (2-6) would jump a step with a win over 1-7 Alliance to add three to the Bulldog tally. If Torrington (4-3) beats Douglas, WY (5-2), the Trailblazers would move up a category and Gering gets three more points. Most of our predictions assumed a middle outcome where two of these comes through for Gering, but a few other teams in this group (Gretna, Elkhorn, and especially Hastings) should be rooting for Hershey, Alliance, and Douglas.

With a win over Hastings: Gering hosts as the 4-7 seed, usually 5-6

With a loss and two/three of Mitchell/Ogallala/Torrington winning: Gering hosts as the 7-8 unless ALL of the following: Blair over Skutt AND Elkhorn over Norris AND Gretna over Gretna East AND Waverly over Pius

With a loss and only one/none of Mitchell/Ogallala/Torrington winning: Hastings moves into a tie with Gering on points, with the head-to-head tiebreaker to send the Bulldogs on the road next week.

Gretna (5-3): The Dragons first varsity football clash against new crosstown rival Gretna East has stakes enough on its own, but it's also important for both team's playoff outlooks.

If Gretna wins, they host unless either of the following scenarios happen:

Scenario 1: Skutt over Blair AND Norris over Elkhorn AND Hastings over Gering AND two of Mitchell/Ogallala/Torrington win: Gering and Hastings pass the Dragons down to #9

Scenario 2: Skutt over Blair AND Norris over Elkhorn AND Gering over Hastings AND Waverly over Pius: McCook bumps Gretna down to #9.

With a loss to Gretna East: Gretna is 11-14, more often 12 or 13

Elkhorn (4-4): The Antlers elevated themselves into the homefield race with their upset of Elkhorn North earlier this season. Still, they'll need some help in addition to a win over the Norris Titans.

With a win over Norris, Elkhorn needs one of the following to be the 7 or 8 seed playing at home:

Scenario 1: Gretna beats Gretna East

Scenario 2: Blair over Skutt AND Hastings over Gering AND Waverly over Pius

Scenario 3: Hastings over Gering AND all three of Alliance/Hershey/Douglas winning AND EITHER: Blair over Skutt OR Waverly over Pius

With a loss, Elkhorn is in the 10-15 range, more often 12-14

Hastings (5-3): The Tigers need help to pass TWO of the THREE teams above them in this group, even with a win over Gering, in order to play at home next week.

Step 1: Win over Gering

Step 2: Have TWO of the following occur:

To pass Gering: AT LEAST TWO OF THESE THREE: Douglas over Torrington  AND/OR Hershey over Mitchell AND/OR Alliance over Ogallala  (and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Gering)

To pass Elkhorn: EITHER: Norris over Elkhorn; OR ALL OF: Skutt over Blair AND Gretna over Gretna East AND Pius over Waverly

To pass Gretna: EITHER: Gretna East over Gretna; OR BOTH OF: Skutt over Blair and Norris over Elkhorn

With a loss, Hastings end up in the 11-15 range, more often 12-13.

McCook (5-3): The Bison, back in Class B after two years in C1, are right back in the hunt for a home playoff game if they can beat Lexington.

With a win, the Bison land between 8 and 13, more often 9-11.

The route to #8, interestingly enough, depends on the winner of Omaha Skutt and Blair (note: in an earlier version of this post, I forgot to include the two games in Step 2 as necessary for the Bison to make it to #8)

Step 1: Win over Lexington

Step 2: BOTH Norris over Elkhorn AND Gering over Hastings

Step 3, Scenario 1: If Skutt wins: Gretna East over Gretna AND ONE OF Waverly over Pius OR Scottsbluff over York

Step 3, Scenario 2: If Blair wins: EITHER Waverly over Pius OR BOTH Gretna East over Gretna AND Scottsbluff over York.

York (5-3): The Dukes have a chance to avenge their opening round loss in last year's playoffs to the Scottsbluff Bearcats, and help their playoff seeding as a bonus.

To host:

Step 1: Win over Scottsbluff

Step 2: ALL OF Norris over Elkhorn AND Gering over Hastings AND Gretna East over Gretna AND Pius over Waverly

In general, with a win: between 8 and 11, most often 10

With a loss: 12-15, more often 13-14

Group 4 - In the Playoffs, on the Road:

Gretna East, Lincoln Pius, Norris

Gretna East (4-4): The Griffins have a chance to record their first plus-.500 season in just their second season with a win over Gretna High.

With a win: between 9 and 13, more often 10-11

With a loss: 13-15, ending up as #15 unless BOTH Skutt AND Elkhorn win

The Griffins do have a long shot to the #8 seed:

Step 1: Win over Gretna East

Step 2: ALL OF: Lexington over McCook AND Skutt over Blair AND Norris over Elkhorn AND Gering over Hastings AND Scottsbluff over York.

Lincoln Pius (4-4): The Thunderbolts close with Waverly on the road with a chance to finish above .500 and give them the best chance at a matchup where they can pull an upset on the road next week.

With a win: between 10 and 14, usually 11-13

With a a loss: 14 or 15

Norris (5-3): The Titans play Elkhorn at home to close the regular season.

With a win: between 9 and 12, more often 10-11

With a loss: between 13 and 15, more often 14

Similar to Gretna East, especially optimistic Titan fans can keep an eye out in McCook for a long shot hosting opportunity:

Step 1 to the #8 seed: Win over Elkhorn

Step 2: ALL OF: Lexington over McCook AND Blair over Skutt AND Gering over Hastings AND Gretna East over Gretna

Group 5 - Contenders for Last One In

Blair, Plattsmouth, GINW, Ralston

Blair (2-6): The Bears will need to upset Omaha Skutt to open the door to a potential playoff bid. Here's how they make it:

Step 1: Win over Omaha Skutt

Step 2, Scenario 1: Elkhorn over Norris AND ONE OF THREE: Grenta over Gretna East OR Pius over Waverly OR Ralston over Plattsmouth

Step 2, Scenario 2: Norris over Elkhorn AND Waverly over Pius

Plattsmouth (3-5): The Blue Devils host Ralston with a chance to make it in at #16:

Step 1: Win over Ralston

Step 2: ALL OF Elkhorn over Norris AND Gretna East over Gretna AND Waverly over Pius (I believe you could replace any of these three with Omaha Buena Vista upsetting South Sioux City)

GINW (3-5): An upset of York in Week 7 was a huge boost to the Vikings' playoff chances. Their route to the playoff is essentially the inverse of the Blair and Plattsmouth outcomes. If neither of the above routes come through, the Vikings are #16. 

Step 1: Win over Lincoln Northwest

Step 2: The Vikings' biggest helpers are Ralston and Omaha Skutt to beat the other contenders. They also get a significant boost to their chances with a Norris victory over Elkhorn.

Ralston (3-5): The Rams need to beat Plattsmouth in their final game and get some help from their opening game opponent: Lincoln Northwest. Here's the Rams' route to #16:

Step 1: Win over Plattsmouth

Step 2: Lincoln Northwest over GINW

Step 3: EITHER Skutt over Blair OR BOTH OF Gretna East over Gretna AND Omaha Gross over Ashland-Greenwood

Update 10/25 3pm: GINW beat Lincoln Northwest Thursday night, knocking Ralston out of playoff contention.

For the remaining 6 teams in Class B, the hill is too steep to climb in the final week.

Platteview (3-5) could pass Blair and GINW with a win over Lincoln Christian and losses for the other two, but the winner of Ralston-Plattsmouth will stay ahead of them for #16. It's a similar story for Crete (1-7) even if they pull off the rivalry win over Seward.

The winner of Beatrice (1-7) at Lincoln Standing Bear (1-7) will take home bragging rights and a positive note to start the offseason.

Lexington (1-7)  will have a chance to beat rival McCook and open some the more exciting scenarios above, but is too far back to make the bracket.

Lincoln Northwest (0-8) will look for win #1 on the season and #2 in program history against GINW.