• Existing superpowers face ongoing economic restructuring, which challenges their power.
• Economic restructuring has been seen with the changing world's economic centre of gravity towards Asia, shifting eastwards from the west. Restructuring has been in the form of an unpredictable shift from primary and secondary industries towards tertiary and Quaternary sectors. Traditional manufacturing cities such as Detroit in the US, and Newcastle and Sheffield, in the USA, have lost jobs and required major investment in regeneration resulting in large social and economic costs.
• It is due to the global shift of manufacturing taking advantage of cheap labour, tax breaks and related health/safety and environmental regulations, primarily in South East Asia, that areas of deindustrialisation and deprivation have developed in the west. Unemployment, economic restructuring and social costs challenge the power of the affected superpowers.
• Unemployment rates following the 2008 global financial crisis, peaked at around 10% in the USA and around 11% in the EU.
• Debt is an economic problem representing an ongoing challenge to the EU and the USA. Debt in the Eurozone accounted to £1.6 trillion in the UK. Debt is a drag on economic growth, it has to be expended for. A shift away from the production of goods, has led to the USA having a significant trade deficit, as the Quaternary sectors have replaced the primary and secondary industries. China owns a significant proportion of the USA's debt, arguably compromising the US hegemony.
• Economic growth in China has led to potential problems in it's counterpart trading partner, Africa. Economic challenges may prevent existing superpowers from maintaining their global importance going forward. As superpowers may struggle to retain their place in the global economy, their spheres of influence may decrease as nations cease their relationship with powers, such as the USA and the EU.

• The economic costs of maintaining global military power (naval, nuclear, air power, intelligence services) and space exploration are questioned in some existing powers. The viability of the maintenance is questionable, can the cost of such missions be justified? On the other hand, military power is a pillar of power and potential necessity.
• For many superpowers such as the USA, the main mechanism of maintaining power is 'hard' power or military forced action. This however, is costly, and money could be spent elsewhere. The USA spent over US$900 billion, more than the entire annual GDP of Indonesia or the Netherlands, on US defence, intelligence gathering, space and aid spending in 2013-14. The USA often accounts for close to half of all the world's military expenditure. Expenditure has fallen in the austerity-hit Western Europe and the USA, whilst increasing in Eastern Europe and Asia.
• The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to a reduction in military spending. The UN highlighted that increased military spending may be detrimental to failure to increase foreign aid to it's target of 0.7% of GDP to effectively tackle economic and social development challenges. It could be argued that failure to comply with these challenges may hinder the role of superpowers in global issues and relations, and so have an effect on their future image.

• The future balance of global power in 2030 and 2050 is uncertain and there are a range of possible outcomes. Applying future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using data from different sources, is one way of exploring the future of superpowers.
• It is impossible to say what the world will be like in 2030 or 2050, there are too many variables and unknowns. A ranking published by the Independent following from the earlier ranking of world superpowers, predicts that China will be the most powerful economy in the world by 2050. It could be a new superpower in a uni-polar world.
• However, China and other Asian countries are expected to encounter strong economic and population growth, increasing the demand for food by 35 percent, demand for water and demand for energy. This could lead to shortages and unrest or conflict over remaining resources. There could be exacerbation of the East and South China Seas conflict to gather remaining minerals and reserves, to solve this issue.
• The USA could continue to be the dominant superpower in the present uni-polar world as it continues to spread a global Western culture across the globe. Alternatively, possible scenarios include a bi-polar world which could emerge between the USA and China, or even a multi-polar world as emerging powers such as the BRICS continue to grow, out-competing the potentially declining EU and USA. This could include a number of nations and organisations exerting considerable influence across the world.

Additional resources:

Using the notes on this page and your own knowledge, evaluate the costs and benefits of maintaining global military power and space exploration.

Read the article about the future of superpowers, including China and Russia. Click here to access the article. To what extent do you agree that China will lose it's current power, and Turkey will become an emerging superpower?