What are the impacts of superpowers on the global economy, political systems and the physical environment?
7.6 The physical environment
Whilst superpowers have impact on the global economy, political systems, people and the physical environment, this does not belong without concern. Global concerns about the physical environment are disproportionately influenced by superpower actions.
Superpowers and emerging nations have increased their wealth and standard of living dramatically, leading to an accelerating rise in the demand for energy and other resources. This can cause both local and global environmental damage.
Superpower resource demands for food, fossil fuels, and minerals, can cause environmental degradation and their carbon emissions contribute disproportionately to global warming.
The global demand for energy is expected to rise, by 55 percent between 2005 and 2030. Fossil fuels are expected to be the dominant source (although these are non-renewable). The reason for this increasing demand is worldwide population growth. The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to increase to 8.6 billion in 2030. The population is growing at an alarming rate, with it originally growing to 1 billion in hundreds of thousands of years. In just another 200 years, it has grown seven-fold at an accelerating rate.
By 2040, an average Chinese household will consume nearly twice as much electricity as today. Fortunately, China's growing energy needs are increasingly met by renewables, reducing the reliance on coal, as China aims to diversify it's energy mix. Coal has fuelled China's dramatic industrialisation since 1990. It has previously been documented for it's acute problems with air pollution with headlines such as 'China's "airpocalypse" kills 350,000 to 500,000 each year'.
Environmental degradation includes reduction in urban air quality, greenhouse gas emissions, and deforestation and land degradation. Providing resources can lead to deforestation and desertification. Emerging powers seek to convert more land into farmland, continue to urbanise increasing the demand for water and increase the use of chemicals in farming to increase yields. Mining for minerals can scar the landscape. Transportation of the minerals then additionally degrades the environment, with methods associated with high carbon footprints. There is environmental degradation caused and carbon emissions contributing disproportionately to global warming. Concerns can be mapped using proportional symbols.
As demands for energy grow ever higher, more environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic could be exploited, with unconventional sources and methods such as fracking growing more popular, and energy pathways becoming more complex and risky.
A notable case is the proposal by Shell (a superpower TNC) to drill for oil in the Arctic following permissions to explore the oil reserves here in 2009.
This attracted international campaigns against Shell, by Greenpeace. Greenpeace campaigned to Lego, who had a contract with Shell. To their success, Greenpeace managed to convince Lego to abandon the contract. In 2014, Lego announced that it would not be renewing it's multi-million pound deal which sees Shell-branded Lego sets distributed at petrol stations in 26 countries.
This is an example of consumer boycotting by Greenpeace.
Some superpowers are more willing to act than others in order to reduce carbon emissions and reach global agreements on environmental issues.
The EU is one superpower which has become a global leader in tackling climate change with the EU 20:20:20 targets and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The EU 20:20:20 is a set of binding legislation to ensure the EU meets it's climate and energy targets for 2020. Targets are a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), 20% of EU energy from renewables and a 20% improvement in energy efficiency.
It could be argued the USA has been less willing to act in order to reduce emissions as it failed to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is one of two major international climate change agreements. It commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets. The protocol was ratified in 1997, entering into force in December 2005. The first commitment period ended in 2012, with the second from 2013 to 2020. The USA, however, failed to ratify this, abandoning the agreement in 2001. Its failure to ratify the protocol and its recent shift towards unconventional sources of energy, undermines the role of this superpower to act willingly to address environmental issues. At COP 21, for the UNFCC, the Paris Agreement was established. This latter international climate agreement, sets out a plan to limit global warming to well below 2°C.
Future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers has implications for the availability and cost of key resources (rare earths, oil, staple grains and water), as well as for the physical environment.
With the growth of the BRICS and other emerging powers, there is concern that rising affluence associated with this growth will increase the numbers of middle-class consumers. Whilst, this may increase development it may place huge strain on already-limited resources. The growth of middle class spending by 2030 is expected to be greatest in Asia Pacific. The number of middle-class consumers are expected to increase from about 2 billion today to 5 billion by 2030.
Consumption of food alone, is predicted to rise by 70-100% by 2050.
China's middle class has now overtaken that of the USA to become the largest in the world.
Of particular significance is the consumption of rare earths, oil, staple grains and water. Rare earths are a group of 17 chemically similar elements crucial to the manufacture of many hi-tech products. The demand for oil, a fossil fuel, is expected to increase. The consumer-orientated economy of China is expected to see a slower rate of growth in oil demand, whilst growth is expected to pick up in India. China also looks to convert to renewable sources reducing it's reliance on oil. China and India will contribute nearly 50% of global oil demand. Staple grains are essential components of food, just 15 plant crops provide 90 percent of the world's food energy intake. Water scarcity is a political affair, with the demand for water growing but it's scarcity increasing.
Additional resources:
Evaluate the impacts of growth in resource consumption.