Summative

Analyze Geoscience Data to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change

Nevado del Tolima, 5276 m.s.n.m, in PNN Los Nevados, Colombia. I summited it in February 2023

Finca La Playa and Nevado del Tolima (Smith, 2023)

The majestic Los Nevados National Natural Park is located in Colombia’s coffee-growing region, in the northern volcanic complex formed by Nevado del Ruiz, Nevado de Santa Isabel, Nevado del Tolima, and the paramillos of Cisne, Santa Rosa and Quindío. It was created to contribute to the conservation of ecosystems that are important worldwide such as three of the glaciers left in the country, super páramo and páramo ecosystems, high Andean wetlands and Andean and high Andean forests. The Park is central in articulating biological connectivity at a regional level, interacting with regional, departmental and local environmental entities.

The Park is in the heart of Colombia’s coffee growing region. The rivers that descend from its snow peaks and páramos supply water to the farmlands and aqueducts of cities, towns and villages in the center of the country. The Otún wetland system, located within the Park, was declared an internationally important Ramsar Convention wetland. By conserving the water and biological wealth, in harmony with the communities residing in its zone of influence and its visitors, we can imagine a better future for everyone.

Parques Nacionales Naturales de Colombia. (2017, May 11). Los Nevados National Natural Park. https://old.parquesnacionales.gov.co/portal/en/ecotourism/andean-region/los-nevados-national-natural-park/

Task Overview

Task: Analyze geoscience data about the cryosphere in Colombia, to make evidence-based forecasts based on the current rate of climate change

The cryosphere is one of several Earth systems. It is composed of the places and parts of our world with frozen water in the forms of snow and ice. This includes the Arctic and Antarctic poles, on the tops of mountains, sea ice, ice shelves and icebergs, glaciers, and frozen ground (permafrost). The cryosphere is an important climate regulator. Surfaces with high albedo reflect solar radiation back to Space, and low temperatures reduce or halt decomposition. What effects will climate change have on the cryosphere in Colombia, and what will the impacts of these changes be?

Section 1: Analyzing geoscience data in orthoimages
Section 2: Analyzing geoscience from glacier photo pairs
Section 3: Forecasting the rate of change with thermodynamics
Section 4: Forecasting future conditions in Colombia

Volcán Nevado de Santa Isabel en 1980 y 2019. Fotos: Jair Ramírez e Ideam. - Foto: Jair Ramírez e Ideam. 13 glaciares han desaparecido en Colombia en los últimos 200 años

Assessment Criteria

Make a valid, reliable claim

The claim needs to be argumentative, specific, makes one point at a time, and is short. You're identifying something you explicitly or implicitly observe in the data.

Analyze trends

State the relationship you see, using the variables and referencing specific data points.

Evaluate how new data impacts understanding

What does the data allow you to predict or forecast about the future?

Make accurate calculations.

Accuracy is the degree to which a measured value is to the actual value. In other words, compute/calculate correct numbers. Show all your work.

Models are used to explain how changes affect behavior within of the system; Use conceptual ideas to explain a phenomenon

Study Guide Materials

Section 1: Evidence of Change

H.2 Glacier Photo Pairs
H.7 Arctic Sea Ice (extent, concentration, and anomaly maps)

Section 2: Albedo and Energy Balance

H.5 Albedo and Surface Temperature
H.1 Glacier Lab (the albedo feedback loop)
H.7 Arctic Sea Ice (ice-albedo feedback)

Section 3: Rate, Forecast, and Uncertainty

H.3 Vostok Cores
H.4 GHGs
Dec 4 Deep Dive (same skill, practiced on different nevados)
H.7 Arctic Sea Ice (forecast with a range, not just a point)
Calculating percent change AND rate of change

Section 4: Thermodynamics

H.1, H.3, H.4 — every lesson uses the three laws; review examples from each
Explain the 0th, 1st, and 2nd laws using examples

Section 5: Magnet Summary and Feedback Loop

H.2 Magnet summary strategy
H.1 Feedback loops (signs, positive/negative)
H.6 Páramo feedback loop
Dec 4 Feedback jigsaw

Section 6: Colombia by 2099

H.6 Percentiles
H.7 Arctic Sea Ice (model-range reasoning)
Your understanding of the whole unit
Writing an evidence-based explanation using data from across the exam

Optional Extension, Conceptual Study Guide

Study Guide Criteria—

Diagram Model, meeting the following criteria:
- Brief, accurate, descriptive text in boxes of the changes in the system
- Arrows accurately linked and oriented between the changes
- Accurately labelled + and - on arrows, depending on the type of feedback
- Classification of the entire feedback loop as positive or negative
An explanation, no longer than one paragraph, how increases and decreases in solar radiation affect the behavior of feedback loop you modeled.
A brief statement/description of changes in the structure or function of the atmosphere as a result of these interactions (with reason)

You may also refer by name to a law (0th, 1st, 2nd) of thermodynamics, a form a heat transfer (radiation, conduction, convection), or both, that’s involved in this as an extra, brief explanation. This is what will get you a “4”.

Procedure:

Read the article through once, before drawing your diagram. Highlight the relevant components and interactions referenced in the article.
- Review your notes and formatives for what the components and interactions could be.
- The article is not edited for length or content. You may wind up highlighting within a small or dispersed regions of the article
Draft some initial model designs so that you can clearly and accurately diagram the system.
- Arrows connected between related components that directly interact
- No overlapping lines
- Legible handwriting, clear labels

Unit 2 Study Guide

An example of a brief explanation of how increases and decreases in solar radiation affect the behavior of the feedback loop modeled:

When the insolation increases due to seasonal changes, the local temperature increases as well. Due to the 0th law of thermodynamics, two objects with different temperatures will have the tendency to reach thermal l equilibrium. Thermal equilibrium occurs as a result of an increase in ground and air temperatures, which will cause ice and snow to melt, exposing the permafrost to more radiation. This cause the permafrost to thaw and melt. As permafrost melts, CO2 is released into the atmosphere. More CO2 (a GHG) will trap more heat energy in the atmosphere, resulting in increased temperatures. When there is less solar radiation, the global temperatures will decrease. A decrease in temperature will lead to the synthesis of snow and ice, which will freeze the permafrost and store (sequester) CO2 from being released in the atmosphere. This will stabilize or decrease global temperatures.

An example of a brief statement of how the structure or function of the atmosphere is altered by interactions in the feedback loop:

In this positive feedback loop, increases in the solar energy change the composition of the atmosphere by adding more CO2.

To achieve a "4" you will need to state specific examples of thermodynamics, heat transfer, AND/OR energy conversions that is interacting in the feedback loop. Expand the text below to see a list of examples for laws of thermodynamics, only:

Examples for Laws-Connections

0th Law of Thermodynamics: (as included in the explanation above) Air and ice temperatures have a tendency to reach thermal equilibrium with each other. If air temperatures are above freezing, air will transfer heat to ice, causing it to melt.
1st Law of Thermodynamics: When incoming solar radiation reaches the surface, 100% of the light is either absorbed by the surface or reflected by it. Light energy that is absorbed can be converted into other forms of energy, but none of the energy is created or destroyed.
2nd Law of Thermodynamics: Decomposition of the thawing permafrost provides chemical energy to decomposers by respiration. Waste products of respiration include heat and CO2, which are emitted to the atmosphere. As CO2 increases in the atmosphere, it traps more of this waste heat causing global temperatures to increase.