Homicide_database

Please note that the pages on this website do not reflect the methods and definitions that were used to generate the final set of results for the GBD-2010 study, which was published in December 2012.

-- If you are interested in the methods or results of GBD-2010 and subsequent revisions, please visit the official website of IHME's GBD project (http://www.healthdata.org/gbd). The materials described on the website are now obsolete but these webpages have been retained as an internet archive of the work of the group.

-- Please visit the website www.globalburdenofinjuries.org to find out more about other closely related collaborations of our group members.

Global Mortality from Inter-personal Violence

Summary: The objective of this collaborative sub-project is to develop national level estimates of deaths from inter-personal violence for all countries for the GBD-2005 study. There are two aspects to this sub-project. First, a global database of all existing statistics of population-based estimates of deaths from inter-personal violence and covariates of interpersonal violence will be developed. Next spatial-temporal regression models will be used to model the relationship between these variables and to estimate inter-personal injury mortality for all countries.

Project Team: During Phase 1 (Database Development), a project officer will do the groundwork, under the guidance of an expert panel. During Phase 2 (Statistical Modeling), researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) will build the models and the expert panel will review results and provide feedback.

Project Officer : Prachi Sanghavi, PhD student, Health Policy, Harvard University

Expert Panel - Confirmed : Richard Matzopoulos, Kavi Bhalla, James Harrison, Anna Alvazzi (Small Arms Survey)

Funding: This short-term effort to improve estimates of global mortality from inter-personal violence in the GBD-2005 study is funded by the Small Arms Survey. A summary report on estimates and methods will be produced as part of this project for inclusion in a forthcoming publication of the Small Arms Survey. The funding is being used partially to support the work of the project officer and partially for small honorariums to the expert panel.

Publications and Authorship: It is expected that a report to the Small Arms Survey and a journal publication will be produced. As always, the authorship principles of the Expert Group apply. In essence, those who do the work will be named authors on all products.

Communications: A section of this website will be used to track the development of the database, regression models, and results. The Project Officer will send weekly emails to the expert panel updating them on the status of the work for feedback and guidance. Skype phone calls will be held approximately every two weeks between members of the Expert Panel.

Timeline: Please note that this sub-project has aggressive timelines that are dictated by the deadlines of the GBD-2005 study, and the needs of the Small Arms Survey.

Phase 1 (Database Development): A preliminary version of the database will need to be ready by the third week of August for preliminary modeling.

Phase 2 (Modeling): Preliminary results will need to be ready by mid-September.

Report to Small Arms Survey: The deadline for this report is Oct 1 2010.

Work Plan

Phase 1: Database Development

National estimates of deaths from inter-personal violence: Work will be done on the following aspects:

1. Acquiring and assembling all existing cross-national crime databases that report homicides

2. Acquiring and assembling all existing cross-national health databases that report deaths from inter-personal violence

3. A systematic review of the literature on deaths from inter-personal violence.

Co-variates of inter-personal violence: The expert panel will identify known co-variates of inter-personal violence for which long time histories of data are readily available.

Phase 2: Statistical Analysis

The statistical framework for the spatial-temporal regression models has already been developed and tested at the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Generation of final results is an iterative process that repeated model runs to test their validity. Examples of similar models can be found on this section of the IHME website. The role of the expert panel during this phase would be to review and critique the results.

Phase 1: Database Development

Click here or on the image below to open the document that tracks Phase 1 (Database Development)

If you can contribute to this section of the project, please contact Kavi Bhalla (kavi_bhalla@harvard.edu)