SEASON PREDICTION 

The Cowboys 2025 season came to a disappointing end as they missed the playoffs with a 7-9-1 record. Usually when a team fails, it's a collective effort, but this was not the case for Dallas as their defense was the glaring weakness of the squad. Luckily for them they've gotten rid of their terrible defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and replaced him with a disciple from the Vic Fangio tree in Christian Parker. They also went out and prioritized improving their defense throughout free agency and the draft with the highlight pickup being Caleb Downs with the 11th overall pick.  

Fortunately for Dallas, the defense is set to improve upon their disastrous 2025 campaign. The pieces were already set in place in the second half of the season once they traded for Quinnen Williams at the deadline. This offseason they made sure to lock up Williams, giving him a 3-year 106-million-dollar extension which he rightfully deserved. Before Williams the Cowboys were letting up 30.8 PPG, 397.4 YPG, and 143 RYPG. After Williams, all of these numbers took a dip, and the Cowboys defense went from league worst to ranking in the mid 20s. Besides locking up Williams for the foreseeable future, Dallas addressed their biggest weakness in the defense, which was their secondary. They went out and signed Jalen Thomas to a 3-year 33-million-dollar deal and Cobie Durant to a 1-year four-million-dollar deal. They augmented their secondary further by utilizing their 11th overall pick to draft the best safety prospect of this decade, Caleb Downs. All of these additions will be put to use immediately to try and improve this pass defense that was ranked dead last in the league last year, giving up 251 yards a game.  

There's also a great deal of hope that Parker can rejuvenate this unit as he plans to shift the Cowboys usual 4-3 defense to 3-4 base. As mentioned above, Parker is a descendant of the Fangio tree which excites me as he has had time to learn the ins and outs of the game from one of the best defensive minds. Cowboy fans will also be excited to know that Parker was the DB coach for the Broncos from 2021-2023 and helped develop the stars of their secondary in PS2 and Justin Simmons. He then mentored Cooper Dejean and Quinyon Mitchell on their way to a Super Bowl in 2024. Now he's going to have the opportunity to mold their standout rookie safety, Caleb Downs who is my pick for DROTY. Regarding the defensive line, it leaves a lot to be designed outside of Quinnen Williams. No one on the front four is seen as an elite pass rushing threat which in turn will put a lot of pressure on this new secondary to hold up on receivers for extended periods of time. A lack of pass rush will be especially detrimental against teams with elite WR rooms like the Texans, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams and Jaguars who are all on their schedule.  

On the opposite side of the ball, the offense was a powerhouse in 2025 hindered by their lack of defensive capabilities. Entering 2026, the Cowboys retain their main weapons that led to them having the number two total offense in the NFL in 2025. There were some concerns that Pickens wouldn't resign but after a long offseason he agreed to play on the franchise tag for 2026. The duo of Lamb and Pickens was one of the best wide receiving parents in the league and they both racked up 1,000 yard seasons. In the backfield is another 1,000-yard player in Javonte Williams who has had a surprising bounce back career following his injury riddled time in Denver. With the core O-line pieces still in place, I see no reason why Prescott can't replicate what he did last year. If their defense can follow suit, this could be a dangerous squad heading into the playoffs.   

Hence, with the defensive upgrade specifically in the secondary and their new DC I expect Dallas to improve on that side of the ball. The offenses have minimal changes from 2025, so I expect the production to stay similar as well. However, due to how weak I feel their pass rush will be the season I have the Cowboys finishing 10-7 just barely missing out on capturing the division title.  

*NOTE: This was written before the Von Miller signing. It does not change much of my analysis for the team though. I still think they finish 10-7 but the addition just gives Parker another weapon to work with in helping improve that defense.