SEASON PREDICTION 

The Chiefs offseason was underwhelming considering it was the first time they had missed the playoffs in 11 years and the first in the Patrick Mahomes era. To end the 2025 campaign Mahomes tore his ACL in week 14 effectively ending any chances Kansas City had of claiming a wild card spot. Now as we enter 2026, the biggest coaching change is reverting back to Eric Beiniemy for the OC role. He was the coordinator who was with the Chiefs when the dynasty first started. However, he has gone through a tubulous offseason putting his mental state in jeopardy all the while the rest of the roster has only weakened since 2025.  

The biggest downgrade for the Chiefs overall roster and specifically the defense is their secondary. Last year they had a pair of elite cornerbacks but during this offseason they both departed for the Rams one in a trade and another in free agency. Now what was once one of the strongest back lines in the league has serious concern going into the season as they'll have to rely on 6th overall pick Mansoor Delane to guard the best receivers in the league in his rookie season. Kansas City did try to beef up their front seven with rookies in the draft and signing Tonga from the Patriots. Yet the unit will still be relying on 33-year-old Chris Jones to man their pass rush which is not ideal for a team with Super Bowl intentions. The squad ended up with a 6-11 record last year and that was with the 10th best defense in the league. Now with both of their cornerbacks gone, I expect the secondary to get exposed by all the elite QBs in the AFC. Furthermore, it seems like Spagnuolo will have to center his gameplans and pull all his chips on the table hoping a rookie cornerback manning his back line and a 33 year old aging pass rusher can lead them to a super bowl. That's a bet I'm not willing to wager on considering all the other elite teams in the conference let alone the division. Spags has proven to be one of the best DC's in the game but with all the downgrades for the defensive unit this year they will have to hope that their offense can pick up some slack as they seem destined for regression.  

Swinging on to the offensive side of things, reports on Mahomes health indicate that he may be ready to return Week 1, which the Chiefs would gladly welcome as a slow start may doom their playoff chances. If Mahomes does return, I expect his designed runs and QB scrambles to be reduced dramatically. Mahomes was the Chiefs leading rusher for the first couple weeks of the season, so his legs have been an integral part of this offense and now that threat may be eliminated due to the torn ACL. Hopefully they're shiny, new offseason addition in Kenneth Walker can help offset that loss. K9 will be the first elite running back Mahomes has had in his career. I expect K9 to have a heavy workload getting 20 to 25 carries a game because frankly this receiving core leaves a lot to be desired. Kelce and the wide receivers on the team have shown a willingness to block in the run game, so Walker should be able to capitalize on all of his opportunities and hopefully stay healthy throughout the year. Speaking of the receiving core, the best option Mahomes will have is Rashee Rice who's coming off an injury and 30 days of jail time. Unfortunately, for Mahomes, Rice is not a deep threat average only 10.8 yards per reception, so the big explosive plays the Chiefs dynasty was synonymous with may not be coming back even with Eric Bieniemy at the helm. Beinemby has missed the start of training camp due to his wife being shot by his 27-year-old son. Thankfully she is okay and in stable condition, but it's unknown how this traumatic event may affect EB's mental state throughout the season. Moreover, the star of the Bienemy system, Kelce, has been on a steady decline in production since 2022 and it seems his prime has been withered away.   

Hence with the Chiefs losing their entire cornerback room, having a questionable defensive line, Mahomes coming off a torn ACL, and a lack of quality receiving talent I have the Chiefs finishing 8-9 and missing the playoffs once again. The Chiefs don't have the luxury of playing in a weak division like the NFC South and they're going to have to face the Chargers and Broncos four times combined this season and both teams I feel outmatch Kansas City greatly in all aspects outside of quarterback. They also have some extremely difficult out of conference games against the Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, and Bills- who have had their number these past 4 years. I expect the defense to rank around the middle of the pack and the offense to continue to struggle due to defenses packing the box against K9 and being content to give up short bubble screens and hitch routes to Rashee Rice. If my prediction comes to fruition, I expect huge changes to come in the 2027 offseason for KC as they look to capitalize on their window with a top 5 QB in NFL history.