image via Emeka Egbuka IG
Key offseason losses: (WR) Mike Evans, (LB) Lavonte David, (CB) Jamel Dean, (DL) Logan Hall, (OC) Josh Grizzard.
Key offseason additions: (LB) Alex Anzalone, (RB) Kenneth Gainwell, (DL) A'Shawn Robinson (OC) Zac Robinson
Key draft additions: (DE) Rueben Bain Jr, (LB) Josiah Trotter, (WR) Ted Hurst III.
SEASON PREDICTION
Tampa Bay has sacrificed so much to keep Tood Bowles in the building, and it may end up setting their franchise back for a long time. This past season, the Bucs missed the playoffs and lost their franchise icon Mike Evans, which was speculated to be due to his grudge of the front office keeping Todd Bowles as HC. The front office has chosen to keep their defensive minded HC at the helm and relinquished the rights to stars such as Dave Canales, and Liam Coen in the process. Both Coen, and Canales are leading promising young roster while Tampa is stuck with a mediocre HC who isn't even great at his trademark specialty of defense. In fact, last year the biggest issue apart from health was how terrible the Bucs defense was. This was most publicly visible in the loss vs the Falcons on TNF when Mike Evans yelled in the tunnel frustrated at his teammates poor defensive performance. On top of Bowles being on the hot seat, the front office has made no moves to sign Mayfield to an extension which could potentially nip them in the bud.
While losing their franchise staple on offense in Mike Evans this offseason, Tampa also lost their defensive staple in Lavonte David as he hung up the cleats after an illustrious 14-year career. Fortunately, the Bucs signed Anzalone to replace David's production. I feel the Anzalone signing will be one of the biggest free agency wins in the NFL and fully expect him to anchor the defense and lead the team in tackles. My only concern with the signing is his age (31) and how much he may regress in the upcoming years. However, this season I'm confident he has enough juice left in the tank to work the middle of the field with Rozeboom. Ultimately Anzalone may not have much to do if Rueben Bain is as good as I expect him to be. Bain dropped from the projected 4th pick all the way to 15th and into the lap of the Bucs. The reason given was that his short arm length made teams hesitant. As an Ohio State fan, I can personally attest that this is a load of bs as this man single handedly ended our playoff hopes last year and tore apart one of the best O-lines in CFB. While the genetic gifts may not be to his advantage his sheer hard work and talent more than make up for it and I am boldly predicated him to rack up 7+ sacks in his rookie year debut. He will also be working in tandem with newly resigned NT Vita Vea who racked up 5 sacks last year. Hence, these two new additions will strengthen the front 7 of the Bucs and improve their likelihood of winning this weak division.
Alas, while the defense has improved slightly from last year, the offense has regressed. Losing Evans and a consistent 1k receiver severely dampens my hopes for what the unit can accomplish. All the other news surrounding the offense isn't great either. Firstly, Mayfield is "Not anywhere close" to an extension which makes relationships with the front office sour before the year has even begun. Secondly their star WR who their banking on having a huge second year breakout is suffering from a toe Injury with little news on his return which is concerning. Thirdly Godwin is coming off of back to back injury riddled seasons dealing with a broken fibula while also being 30 years old, which is where receivers tend to fall off. Fourthly the team is rolling out yet another new OC which means Mayfield and this offense won't have continuity and have to learn a new system yet again. The only positive offseason news was the addition of Kenneth Gainwell, who at worst can be a reliever to Irving and at best make this run game a 2 headed spearhead attack which many successful offenses are running. They are also heading into 2026 with the 3rd best O-line and the best LT in the game protecting Mayfield from injury. Albeit even with an iron fortress in the trenches, Mayfield is bound to scramble and make some reckless decisions that put his body in jeopardy. And while I love his moxie, there is no denying his stupid decisions led to him suffering unnecessary injuries, which is one of the reasons the front office is hesitant to extend him.
Overall, the Bucs have strength at positions on both sides of the ball. Offensively their O-line will be the driving force behind their ability to move the ball downfield, and defensively the new rookie addition of Rubein Bain will strengthen their front 4. However, there are too many concerns for me on the offensive side of the ball to have Tampa Bay winning this division despite how weak it is hence my 7-10 prediction. The final straw that makes me choose against them is that Todd Bowles is still their HC, and he has yet to show me that he can elevate a team, nor has he shown me that he is a good game manager. He simply inherited the throne from Bruce Arians and sooner or later someone will come to cut off the head of the king.