The Uphill Path of Juan Dalmau

Here, lets take a combined look at where Dalmau & Lúgaro's combined 27% stacks up. 37% and 33% in San Juan I and Bayamón II respectively, followed by 22% in Arecibo III, 23% in Mayagüez-Aguadilla IV, 24% in Ponce V 25% in Guayama VI, 28% in Humacao VII, and 29% in Carolina VIII.

Here, in order to account for the spoiler effect, I have choosen to include an MVC candidate in the sample, considering that it is incredibly likely that they will get between 0.5-1% of the vote, mostly concentrated in the San Juan Metro.

Here, we see that in 2020 Dalmau+Lúgaro failed to cross the 30% threshold in all but two districts, Bayamón II where the Alianza has mostly ceded campaigning to MVC's Jose Bernardo Marquez, and San Juan, which they've gone all in in. 

In this haste, outside of the Metro, most efforts have been directed towards consolidating the 2020 voteshare, something that both Full Master Services Polls, as well as the Statewide and San Juan Polls polls have shown is only mostly done.

However, ceding Bayamón II (Outside Bernardo Márquez), and (the yet unmentioned) Humacao VII outside Caguas, as well as Carolina VIII entirely is a decision that will haunt the Alianza, limiting potential gains as they require a significantly more than double digit (potentially needing to cross 45% or 50% in the Senate District) gain in San Juan in order to gain the 6% island wide they need to be in contention. 

And Gains (in San Juan, over the PNP) have yet to materialize in polling outside the Margin of error (Some polls show Manuel Natal 1% above Miguel Romero, statistically within the Margin of Error of where he on his own [ and even more when you add 2020 PIP Mayoral Candidate Adrian Gonzalez] finished in 2020)

In fact, due to basically all polls having Miguel Romero and Manuel Natal in a statistical tie, they suggest something between a 6-9% win for Jenniffer González; below the 12% win Statewide polls suggest, but not far off from the Margin of Error (and exactly the relationship showed by LitDataPR's Polls)

Herein, Juan Dalmau—potentially in part off a sympathy bump—only barely reached 28% in the most recent LitDataPR tracking poll, just above The Combined Alianza's 27% showing, but within the margin of Error of 25% which Alianza has been in the past few months.