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Puerto Rico faces an interesting election this cycle, one which a large cacophony of polls, spending, and general vibes prognosticate will be a landslide for Jenniffer González, and potentially the PNP. Despite this, under the hood there's a lot to cover, and likely interesting results to come to understand.
However, knowing most english speakers are not familiar with the current state of Puerto Rican Politics, nor even the systems that Puerto Ricans utilize and vote in, I seek to have this explainer be a guide for people to understand Puerto Rican Politics as it stands, and—in my final November update—where it may head towards.
We begin with the very Basics of the Puerto Rico Election system, the ballot. I link here an online practice ballot from paravotar.org. But fundamentally, there are three ways to vote in PR:
By Party via íntegro bajo insignia (literally integral under the sign),
Voto Mixto (By party, Mixed vote, while voting for specific candidates wherin choosing them will overide the party vote)
Voto por Candidatura (voting for candidates while not voting for any party)
Papeleta Estatal—Integral Vote, Results in a vote for Jenniffer González & William Villafañe
Papeleta Estatal—Mixed vote, Results in a vote for Jesus Manuel Ortiz & William Villafañe
Papeleta Estatal—Vote by Candidate, Results in a vote for Javier Córdova Ittereugi & Pablo Jose Hernandez
Herein, the Voto íntegro in the statewide ballot (Papeleta Estatal) is important for maintaining a party's electoral franchize, which enables it for things such as representation in the State Elections Commission (Comisión Estatal de Elecciones o CEE), and non-election year funding otherwise not available.
Beyond the Voto íntegro, I should also note that there are more than just one ballot in Puerto Rico—in fact—in 2024 there are 5 ballots: the Statewide, Legislative, Municipal, Presidential and Plebiscite ballots.
Legislative for the San Juan Election District 1
Plebiscite
Presidential
Municipal for San Juan
We'll need to return to the Voto íntegro in a bit. but in the Meantime we have to shift over to the "Por Acumulación" or At-Large election system.
Here, the most basic way to explain the system is such: you get one vote in each At Large competition (Senate or House), with both major parties (the PPD & PNP until 2020) running 6 candidates to attempt to get 6 in.
Now, how do parties not split the vote if voters only get one At-Large vote per chamber? the answer lies in the Integral/Party vote and the spanish name of the system: "Por Acumulación".
Literally meaning "by accumulation" the por Acumulación system works via At-Large candidates being assigned a specific electoral District "Precinto" wherein as the party accumulates integral or Mixed* votes, the At large candidates accumulate votes without vote splitting.
*the exception to this is when someone votes mixed for a different At-Large candidate, even one of the same party, which throws the vote splitting strategy by the parties off and harms their chances of getting all 6 in.
An example of this can be seen in 2020, where Héctor Ferrer Jr got 11.74% of the vote, taking votes from other PPDs and resulting in only him and Jesus Manuel Ortiz getting elected in the House at-large.
I'll add that this is also the system whereby the PIP, has stayed relevant, as you only need between 5-8% of the statewide vote as a minor party in order to enter the Legislature.
Example of a legislative ballot that results in José Che Peréz and Leyda Cruz getting into the legislature. Here, the PNP would frown on a vote for Che Peréz, but approve of a vote for Cruz
There's a similar function in the Municipal ballot, but where voters can vote for all but 3 of the total seats in the municipal legislature, normally resulting in the said legislature being controlled unanimously by the mayor's party, and wholly controlled by them .
Next up, a quick explanation of the minorities law. Here, if a party sums more than 66.6% of the legislative seats in a chamber, the Parties that lost the governor's race will have seats added to their legislative total in rough proportion to how many seats the party that won the legislature passed 66.6%.
Now that we have the technical stuff out of the way, onto the context for the 2024 Elections. I won't be covering the deep minutiae of all the elections—as I'll save that for when I map 2012, 2016 and 2020—just the broad strokes that have led us to where we are now.
We begin our context in 2012, Governor Luis Fortuño, Speaker Jenniffer González, and Senate President Thomas Rivera Schatz had just lost to Governor-Elect Alejandro García Padilla, Speaker-Elect Jaimé Perrelló, and Senate President Elect Eduardo Bhatia, but what at first seems like a victory for the PPD, would be the first cut of many that would lead the party to being a third place contender in 2024.
That result, was the 2012 Status Plebiscite, while Statehood getting 61.16% in the second question (and 44.40% of all valid votes cast) is the eyecatcher, the result that was devastating for the PPD was the first question, "Should Puerto Rico continue its current territorial status?" getting 46.03% of the vote as the PPD got 48.04%, signifying a rejection of ELA as a concept even as the PPD won on a fundamentally Anti-PNP message. What's more, it was the first time that ELA got more votes than Statehood did—in absolute terms, one to 1 percentage comparisons aren't possible due to voters in question 1 voting in question two, but this was a seismic change that was the canary in the coal mine for the PPD's oncoming weakness.
The following 2013-2017 term, moreover, was a disaster for the party. This term was filled with division, a marquis corruption scandal with Anaudi Hernandéz that resulted in Speaker Perrelló resigning, and most damning, Puerto Rico v Sánchez Valle, which declared that Puerto Rico did not in fact have it's own Sovereignty as constitutional scholars who supported ELA and the PPD understood it. This plus the institution of the unpopular PROMESA fiscal oversight board further stirred animosity towards the actual Colonial/Commonwealth/ELA status, and then combined with the Independent Candidate Alexandra Lúgaro running in 2016, reduced the PPD to 39% and the PNP by association to the PROMESA board (actual governor Pedro Pierluisi was one of the people that pushed for it in congress) to 42%. The PNP, however, won this election due to the mass of damage the PPD took during the 2013-2017 Term.
There's too much to cover during the 2017-2021 Term. Hurricane Irma and Maria devastating the island, the continuation of dealing with PROMESA, the Trump Administration, Tellegramgate and the Resignation of Ricardo Rosselló in Verano 2019, The Pierluisi Interregnum, Governor Wanda Vázquez, COVID-19, the August Primary Controversy, Endless corruption scandals such as the one that ensnared Maria Milagros "Tata" Charbonier, and a sexual harassment scandal that resulted in Hectór O'Neil Resigning, the privatization of the Energy Electricity Authority (Autoridad Energia Electrica, o AEE), and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on to a degree that the also concurrent demographic and migration crisis was more than understandable, one would be willing to actively help people flee.
On Status, outside of the passage of the law that would give us the 2020 Plebiscite and 2024 Presidential preference ballot, there was the 2017 off-year Status Plebiscite. The results, however, where highly questionable as the PIP and PPD boycotted the Plebiscite which had 23% Turnout; leading to no action and a persistent myth of a boycott for the 2020 Plebiscite.
The Results for the 2017 Plebiscite:
Statehood: 97%
Independence: 1.5%
Current Status: 1.5%
Despite this chaos that would get thrown out of a writing room for being unrealistic, the 2020 elections were still to be held. And with such a string of endless one would think that it would be a slam dunk for the PPD right? well... not exactly.
Despite the endless... Everything,,, the PNP overall wasn't yet in chaos, with them having the strongest core base of supporters placing them early on where they were in 2016, and the new incumbent Wanda Vázquez with positive approval. This, would not last.
The Primary Scandal and the campaign took their toll. Coming out of the disaster of a primary election, Isabela Mayor Carlos "Charlie" Delgado Altieri would attain most undecideds and trail Pierluisi 38-37% in October. the later October campaign would cost each 6% off of here with Pierluisi—due to a stronger PNP base, winning over San Juan Libs as Charlie collapsed with them to an extreme degree, and despite being underwater 54-37% the month before his election—would become governor in 2020 with 33% of the vote.
2020 was not all bad for the PPD, they did win the Senate and House of Representatives in that election, and a majority of the mayoralties, but the loss of the governorship is a specter that haunts them in the present and threatens to kill the party in its weakest moment.
Conterminously, the PNP had called for a plebiscite that questioned "whether Puerto Rico should be immediately Admitted into the Union As a State?" and with vigorous campaigning by the PIP and PPD against and PNP for, with only 3.18% blank ballots in the election, more votes than any individual candidate, and—let me emphasize—no Boycott
the results were:
In Favor: 52.52%
Against: 47.48%
This constituted the First time in Puerto Rico's history that any status option that was not ELA/Commonwealth/Territory got a majority of the vote, and while the 2012 plebiscite ended the mandate for ELA only *after* 2020 was there an affirmative mandate for statehood to be pursued.
Overall the calmest four years in Puerto Rico, the dominant political debate between 2021-2024 was the privatization of the Autoridad Energia Electrica and the granting of the energy contract to LUMA energy; with natural disasters such as flooding, a hurricane and debates about beachside development and the PR Act 22 tax breaks to rich mainland Americans, as well as just a general bad feelings about the state of Puerto Rico predominating and playing a roll in the discourse.
The LUMA crisis, and general economic despondency would end up contributing to Incumbent Governor Pedro Pierluisi's high disapproval rating. At it's highest Pierluisi was underwater by 40%: 21% Favorable, 61% unfavorable. By contrast, Jenniffer Gozález was the most popular politician in Puerto Rico throughout the term, that same poll had her above water by 3%, 39-36%.
The PPD during this time was rudderless, with many of those fighting for the top job, such as Senate President Jose Luis Dalmau, Speaker of the House Rafael "Tatito" Hernández Montañez, and 2020 PPD candidate, former Isabela Mayor Charlie Delgado Altieri, opting for running for reelection, the Mayoralty of Dorado, or not running at all.
Here, after a 2023 Special Primary for the Presidency of the PPD resulted in House Member Jesús Manuel Ortiz barely beating the Mayor of Villalba Luis Javier Hernández Ortiz, he was functionally the Party's gubernatorial candidate in all but name, only needing to beat the former Hacienda (Treasury) Secretary Juan Zaragoza in order to officially be the nominee—something he did by 23.42% the same night Pierluisi went down.
While all this was going on, in 2022 the PIP and MVC—both believing they had a better shot at winning the San Juan Mayoralty and Governorship if they unified as a party—began talks of an electoral alliance, eventually solidifying into what it is today. With a minor hurdle of the MVC's at-large candidates being thrown off the ballots for failing to comply with signature requirements.
The thinking behind both parties is that due to the high rates of despondency with the Puerto Rican Political system, alongside their 28% result in 2020 and the decreasing salience of Status Politics—because of the fundamental truth outlined by Dr. Cristina Ponsa-Kraus that Puerto Rico has no power to change its status—they have an opening to win in 2024.
While the agreement took two years to be solidified, and some seats (such as HD-20) have Fraternal Alianza competition, The Alianza was in fact finalized into what it is today. And as seen bellow, was only 6% behind the PNP in 2020 once Unified.
Despite this all of this, throughout 2024, as I covered in September and October, Alianza remains far behind Jenniffer Gonzalez; with the October ENDI poll placing González at 37%, to the Alianza's 25%. This state of the race, moreover, has been incredibly stable throughout the year with multiple different polls placing Jenniffer González in the high 30%s/low 40%s with a comfortable lead. The one fact that will bring Dalmau hope is that there are three weeks to election day, and potentially gives him time to catch up even if Jenniffer is a substantial favorite.
2024 Elections results will be available on November 5th, 2024 on ceepur.org. Polls are Open from 9am-5pm with first results expected between 5:30-6:30pm.
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