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The 2024 Puerto Rican Elections, the state of the race as of writing in September 15th, 2024, is... lets face it, a boring one, with the marquis race—La Fortaleza/the governorship—being all but decided for current Resident commissioner Jenniffer Gonzalez.
This is because, whilst it receives most of the coverage from the media in Puerto Rico, who treat it as a presidential contest; the fundamental truth is that, after vanquishing unpopular Incumbent Governor Pedro Pierluisi in the Primary, Jenniffer leads both potential second place finishers—Ortiz and Dalmau—by drapes measuring leads, between 7% on the low end (AtlasIntel) to 19% on the high end (Gaither).
The underlying reason for this comanding lead is the fact that polls throughout the last four years have found her to have the highest popularity out of any Puerto Rican Politician, with El Nuevo Día finding her having 39% favorability in February 2023 and a 45% Favorability Rating in March of 2024
This is despite recent negative publicity such as her flip flopping from her Primary stance on LUMA Energy with a Pierluisi Supported LUMA Czar, her not showing up to multiple candidate forums, public displays of PNP disunity such as spats with the governor she beat in the primary, and the leaking of official information from the State Elections Commission (Comisión Estatal de Elecciones o CEE) to a chat of PNP functionaries.
The End result being that barring an ninth, tenth or eleventh hour upset by the Comonwealth supporter Jesus Manuel Ortiz, Progressive independence supporter Juan Dalmau, or the Christian Conservative former PNP Javier Jímenez Jenniffer Gonzalez will be the next governor of Puerto Rico. Governorship: Likely PNP
However, for all the hullabaloo about the non-competitive actually,,, winning and becoming governor of Puerto Rico, the position for second place is neck and neck with Jesus Manuel Ortiz and Juan Dalmau being statistically tied in the four polls of the race conducted.
I add the two Pre-primary polls because of their differing methodologies from the post Primary Gaither and Jorge Benítez polls allow us to get a stronger picture of the curent electoral landscape. Without them Jenniffer Gonzalez is still comfortably ahead with 40%, followed by Juan Dalmay at 25%, in third place is Jesus Manuel Ortiz at 19%, and then Javier Jímenez at 11%.
The underlying reason for this competitiveness for second place, if not a Likely PIP second place finish, is the focus on Dalmau in Electoral coverage in Puerto Rico—with the Media discussing the MVC/PIP alliance since the 2022 Ballot Fusion debate, the PNP focusing on attacking the Alliance more than the PPD throughout this campaign season, and the fact that—as of writing—Juan Dalmau + the PIP have a cash on hand advantage over Jesus Manuel Ortiz + the PPD 2.5:1. Second Place: Tossup
A second place finish for the PIP would be a historic showing for the party, as they have not achieved that since 1952 where they got 19% of the vote, distantly behind the PPD's founder Luis Muñoz Marín's 65% of the vote. After which the Partido Estadista Republicano under the leadership of Luis A. Ferré would surge before winning the governorship as the PNP in 1968.
It would also signify that more independence/Free Association suporters are voting on their dominant Status preference rather than the historical "Melónismo" that has led them to vote PPD to stop the PNP from attaining power.
(a phenomenon where independent suporters, who's color is historically green, vote for the PPD, who's color is red, leading them to be green independence supporters on the outside and Red PPDs on the inside)
Polls since 2020 have found the combined support of independence and Independence with Free Association (Libre Asociasion) at 33% of the Population, slightly higher than the 29% they combined for in the 2012 Puerto Rican Plebiscite.
*Note: the Atlas/Intel Poll did not give the option to support ELA, so None/Refused has been added to the ELA column, *Note 2: in the Data For Progress Column, Sovereign Free Associatin and "Enhanced Comonwealth" have been combined into the same option for simplicity
A result where Dalmau attains 22-28% (as Polls suggest), whilst it would still have a significant chunk of Statehooders (Estadistas) present, would likely represent a consolidation of the Free Asociation and independence vote, with some Independence/Free Asociation Supporters voting for the PD and PPD instead of Dalmau.
The potential result of this outcome is a cementation of the Alliance at a third of the Electorate, with future growth dependent on one of the PPD's support, the PD taking multiple PNP voters, the Alliance themselves taking Statehooders from the PNP, or some combination of these.
Looking Past the Governorship to the last ballot added, there's not much to say on it. The PNP instituted another local Plebiscite as an attempt to increase turnout, and while the PIP tried to get it thrown off the ballot, it's still on. With regards to Campaigns, outside the PNP no Party has campaigned for any option
Here, despite some Alianza Politicians supporting voting in the plebiscite, the official Position of MVC is to Spoil the plebiscite and Presidential ballots.
The PD has no official Position though Gubernatorial Candidate Javier Jímenez won't vote in the plebiscite, and the PPD has called for a boycott much like MVC.
PIP has not discussed publicly their position since they failed to get the plebiscite thrown off the ballot.
The end result of all of this is that Statehood is all but certain to "Win", in that it will have the most votes, but fall below 50%+1 of the total ballots cast in the gubernatorial race—a similar scenario to what occurred in the 2012 Plebiscite—but largely meaningless as it is disentangled from the Velazquez-Gonzalez-Ocasio Cortez Puerto Rico Status act that passed congress in 2022 and is the likeliest bill to resolve Puerto Rico's colonial Status.
I should note that with everything going against it, should statehood succeed in getting 50%+1 of all the ballots cast at the polls, that would constitute the single largest victory for the option in Puerto Rico's 126 year history with the United States. Safe Statehood, likely Plurality
Taking a quick Detour to Federal Politics, there have been no Public Polls of the race conducted since Kamala entered the Presidential contest, with only one Poll being conducted Prior to Biden's Exit. Said Poll from IZQ Strategies in March of 2024 found Biden ahead with PR voters in PR by 43-19%, down 14% from where 2020 Polls found him in his first contest against trump where he was up on average by 38%.
Here, despite the aforementioned official position of the MVC to spoil the presidential ballot, it is likely that Kamala Harris will win Puerto Rico decently comfortably. And along with this the giant swathe of Puerto Ricans all across the mainland, such as in Central Florida, Western Massachusetts, South Eastern PA, South Jersey, the Bronx in New York, Western Massachussets, and many other places that voted for Joe Biden in a landslide in 2020.
However, at the Present I rate the presidential preference it as Likely Democratic simply because while Polls, Mainland results, and anecdotal Data that the PR GOP want the presidential Poll canceled while the Puerto Rico Dems want it to continue suggests a safe Democratic contest there is a lack of overall data as to how Puerto Rico will vote—and potential for a boycott to grow—that requires caution to be exercised.
In the last statewide contest, the resident commisionership, we begin to see the facrt that Jenniffer Gonzalez is heavily Outrunning the rest of the PNP ticket, and that the Alliance may not be as unified as it may first seem.
Here, we find that, in the average of the three polls conducted for the race, William Villafañe (PNP/R) Leads Pablo Jose Hernandez Rivera (PPD/D) and Ana Irma Rivera Lassén (MVC/D) by 5%.
Only including post primary polls, that lead balloons to 9% with Villafañe leading Hernandez by 9%, 35%-26%
Here, Villafañe, the most Liberal PNP in the legislature, and a Self-IDed Republican whom does not support Former Republican President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election is in a good position to succeed Jenniffer Gonzalez as resident commissioner.
This decent position is despite the fact that, when Looking at FEC filings via Open Secrets we find that Villafañe is at a significant Cash disadvantage to Pablo Jose.
Note, Elmer Román was defeated in the PNP primary and Jose E. "Quiquito" Melendez dropped out before the filing deadline
The underlying reason that he's in a good position, however, is because of the fact that (PNP) Jenniffer Gonzalez is currently ahead of (PPD) Jesus Manuel Ortiz by 16% (38%-22%) a funcionally insurmountable lead given that Puerto Rico, while increasingly Prone to ticket splitting, has not had a 16% ticketsplit in it's history.
In addition to this, once you consider the fact that post Primary polling has Jenniffer leading Jesus Manuel Ortiz by 21%, and Villafañe over Pablo Jose by 9%, the likely insurmountability becomes even more evident.
Despite this, the large difference and favorability gap (Villafañe is underwater by -16% in favorability while Hernandez is underwater by -2% in the same) poses a potential for an upset not present in the governorship, and if the PPD is to eventually mount a comeback sometime in the future, Pablo Jose winning (if not holding at least one chamber of the legislature with a majority) is a neccesity for the party which at present looks unlikely. Resident Commissionership: Lean PNP
The 2024 San Juan Mayoral Election, the only Mayoral election I will discuss in depth here as San Juan is the capital and most important city of Puerto Rico, is a competitive affair where Incumbent Miguel Romero holds a lead over challenger, 2020 Runner Up Manuel Natal, and Mail vote Fraud conspiracy theorist
Polling for this race has been all over the place, with three different pollsters with histories of overestimating or underestimating a diferent polity in Puerto Rican Politics finding a small lead for Miguel Romero.
Only counting the two post primary polls (PNP) Miguel Romero is at 38%, to (MVC) Manuel Natal's 31% to (PPD) Terrestella Gonzalez's 12% to (PD) Maidalys Irrizary's 4%
Outside of some criticism of Romero not showing up to certain forums (and long since forgotten Scandal); the race has overall been dominated by attacks on voting procedures. Here, so far, Natal has claimed that registering to vote by mail in a multiparty forum posed a risk to the security of voter's information as the PNP having an additional form for voter's to fill out in addition to the CEE's mail vote solicitation form was denounced as a means by which they could commit fraud.
Conversely, a similar scandal has engulfed the MVC in San Juan—and Manuel Natal personally—as in an alleged MVC scheme of voters being registered to vote in San Juan when they don't live there; Natal's brother was alleged by Romero's campaign to be registered to vote in an apartment complex in SJ that doesn't exist to which Natal has cried foul, claiming that 'he is the candidate, not his brother'.
Beyond this, Polling by El Nuevo Día has found Miguel Romero with Sky High Approval, in San Juan, with 64% approving of the job Romero is doing to 10% disapproving, an improvement from their November 2023 Poll. However, they also found him leading with 53% of the vote and Natal in third place with 10% of the vote, so some caution should be taken with their polling, even if it is clear that Romero is—at the present moment—liked overall in San Juan. San Juan Mayor: Lean PNP
Sidenote, I should note that in the 2020, election, where Manuel Natal lost with 33% of the vote to Romero's 36% of the vote—like in 2024—the only El Nuevo Día poll of the race conducted in late September showed Natal in a distant third place with 12% while Romero had 34% and then PPD candidate Rossana López had 32%. Meanwhile the other poll of this race, October 13th's Gaither poll had Natal at 18% with Romero at 38% and 24% of those polled undecided. As such Natal is not out of this and can rise in October even if the current numbers suggest a Romero Win.
Onto the Senate. Overal, the PNP is incredibly likely to retake at least the plurality (<14 seats) in the senate, if not probably retake the majority.
Here, the retirement of strong incumbents, such as Javier Aponte Dalmau, Rosamar Trujillo Plumey, and Gretchen Hau have placed one of each of the Carolina VIII, Humacao VII and Guayama VI seats either in PNP hands or in more risk than if they had run. In fact, out of these, the PPD is likely only favored in Guayama VII due to the likely (what can best be described as) coattails of Luis Javier Hernández who is running for one of the at large senate seats, and will likely seek the senate presidency if the PPD wins a plurality or majority
Beyond this, other incumbents such as Rubén Soto, Ada García Montes and Juan Zaragoza have also retired from the senate, though these retirements serve a lesser effect as to the state of the senate. Here, this is because Soto was the weaker PNP candidate in Arecibo III in 2020, while García Montes stood to lose more by the entrance of a PD candidate than her ticketmate Migdalia Gonzalez.
Beyond this, the only races that have moved to favoring a party while having their incumbents run is Ponce V and one of the Arecibo III PPD senators, this is because of the fact that Jenniffer Gonzalez's coalition is likely to be less Metro-Centric than Pierluisi's allowing her to take both districts back as outside of 2020 they have tended to vote more PNP than the island as a whole. This then combines with the likely collapse of the PPD in Ponce due to the fact their mayor there was suspended from the mayoralty for a major corruption scandal this past term to make reelection potentially challenging for Marially González, Ramón "Ramoncito" Ruiz and Elizabeth Rosa Vélez.
That Covers the PPD/PNP races, now onto the PPD Alianza Races—San Juan I and surprisingly Bayamón II.
Here, starting with San Juan, we have Alianza's best district, one which Jenniffer Gonzalez likely hurts more than she helps. This is because come 2020 while she won San Juan, relative to her statewide performance she did worst in San Juan, allowing disgrased Ex-governor Aníbal Acevedo Vila to hold his own against her in the capital city.
The result from this is that both candidates, Incumbents Nitza Moran and Juan Oscar Morales, both of whom came close to losing to MVC candidates in 2020 (though Morales in HD-03) despite Pierluisi's and the PNP's overall strength in San Juan have been placed in a precarious position where—despite them attempting to tie themselves to the popular Miguel Romero—it is probable that their race becomes the first race where third parties win seats in the legislature by district since 1944, and the first ever time third parties win a state senate seat by district.
Lastly, Bayamon II, a surprise addition to the board for Puerto Rico's only safe Senate District (Hasn't been perceived as competitive since 1976) is seeing what is close to the worst case scenario for the PNP. Here, the Alianza is focusing on getting one candidate over the line, State house Representative Bernardo "Betitito" Márquez over the line. Son of the popular PNP mayor of Toa Baja, estadista, and Progressive he's a strong candidate for the Alianza's second best senate district. Comparatively, the weaker PNP candidate is Migdalia Gonzalez, in office since 2000, she recently faced—and barely won—a primary where Thomas Rivera Schatz attempted to be rid of her due to the risk of losing this seat. While she was the stronger PNP candidate in that seat the primary has apeared to have left her in a weaker position than when she started in, and combiend with the likelyhood that Jenniffer Gonzalez does worse in this seat, especially in Guaynabo/HD-06) she is in Bayamón II's most competitive election in 48 years.
The House of Representatives Elections, In terms of control, it is the closest of the four partisan statewide contests, and as a result it is the PPD's best chance to hold a majority or plurality; as it's perceived to be close at the moment.
Beginning with the Alianza's five best pickup opportunities, we have HD-03, HD-02, HD-04, HD-24, and HD-31.
Here, the San Juan seats have received the most fanfare as to them being potential Alianza Gains as Juan Dalmau and Alexandra Lúgaro, were their votes combined, would have won all three of them comfortably.
Beginning with HD-03, the seat that MVC nearly won in 2020, we find that Runner up Eva Prados is in a strong position, not just with Incumbent Oscar morales moving up into the senate, but with incumbent José "Cheito" Hernández facing a brutal special primary and the aforementioned PNP weakness in the Metro. Here, it would be a moderate surprise if she were to lose and would point to a bad night for the Alliance. Lean MVC
Secondly, what SHOULD be the easiest pickup for MVC, HD-02, the only seat that Manuel Natal won in 2020 here, the race is a tossup because San Juan Municipal Legislator for the MVC Joel Vázquez Rosario has been accused of sexual harassment by a former Employee, and despite the perceived ease for Alianza to win this seat, this presents a vital opening for the PNP to win a seat they have not held since 2000. Tossup
Thirdly, HD-04, the only San Juan race with a strong Popular—Manuel Calderón Cerame (PPD) faces against Incumbent Victor Páres (PNP) and Adriana Gutiérrez Colón (PIP), Combining the PIP and MVC House results for the new seat places the results as follows: PNP-34%, Alliance-34%, and PPD-35%. This combined with Manuel Calderon Cerame distancing himself from the PPD and running on a similar Platform to Alianza, and Páres' incumbency places this contest as one of Puerto Rico's few three way tossups. Tossup
Following this, Alliance's next best pickup is in Ponce, HD-24. Here' they notched a stelar recruit in MVC municipal legislator José Hernández Lázaro, grandson of Rafael Hernandez Colón and cousin to Pablo Jose Hernandez Rivera. This combined with Part of the Elder PPD establishment supporting Alianza in Ponce (MVC's mayoral candidate is Javier Bonnin, who was close with the popular Ex-mayor of Ponce Rafael "Churumba" Cordero Santiago (PPD)) places Alianza in a strong position in the Second of three three way tossups. Tossup.
Following this is the Caguas-Gurabo seat, HD-31. Here, incumbent Jesus Santa Rodriguez faces strong PIP opposition in the Melonismo capital of Puerto Rico, Northern Caguas, and PNP opposition in the party's bastion in Gurabo. Combined with the fact he got a small boost in redistricting he should be able to hold on due to his appeal to Melones (2020 PPD Gov Candidate Charlie Delgado got 27% in the current seat in 2020 where Santa Rodriguez got 33%), However, through investment in Caguas by the PIP and PNP in Gurabo, both parties have a strong possibility to potentially take the seat from the PPD in what is a three way tossup. Tossup.
Onto the PNP/PPD tossups, begining with HD-10. Here, despite the potential for Jenniffer to do better in Toa Baja, the PNP nominated 2020 Loser Pellé Santiago, and as such have given the PPD a vital lifeline the PPD as Santiago lost in 2020 as a two term incumbent in a seat carried by every other PNP in that election. Tossup
Next up, HD-18, Here, like in HD-10, there's a good chance for Jenniffer to do better, however, the PPD mayor of Aguada has proven to be powerful, and when combined with Rincón, the PPD has a strong chance to hold this normally PNP district as a strong local party apparatus has taken form. Tossup.
Lastly, HD-28 Incumbent PPD Juan José Santiago Nieves faces former Senator Axel "Chino" Roque, both of whom won HD-28 in their contests, however the former won largely because of the controversial then Incumbent's scandals while the PNP won the seat in every other contest, as such while he had an impressive performance, Roque who also lost a special primary for Barranquitas in 2019 poses a potential challenge to him holding on. Tossup.
All of these contests bear out a very interestign and competitive down ballot in Puerto Rico, however, I should note that this is unusual. Pre-2016 Ticket Splitting was a rarity, and with Jenniffer Gonzalez's astronomical polling—even if she loses ground due to political gravity—the contests may potentially equalize into a strong PNP showing. This potential equalization is not something that should be forgotten as we head into the more turbulent months of the election, as it may end up being determinative for a large amount of contests in Puerto Rico.
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