State of the 2024 Puerto Rican Elections, October 12, 2024

Between the two of these, however, only the one on Mayagüez-Aguadilla IV, Published by the Podcast Puestos Pal Problema, run by PPD funcionaries, is a major outlier, suggesting an 9% decline in Jenniffer Gonzalez's voteshare and 2% increase in Jesus Manuel Ortiz's

Such a result, if applied to the rest of the island, would put JMO as a modest ~5% favorite over PIP candidate Juan Dalmau, who gains 1% over the combined Alianza (Dalmau/Lúgaro) voteshare in 2020.

However, no other poll shows what this likely PPD internal is showing. 

In fact, the other Full Master Services Poll, the one of the municipality of Ponce—if coalitions line up with 2020, sugests something closer to a 6-7%—for Jenniffer Gonzalez over Juan Dalmau, likewise with the PPD holding stronger than the statewide polls would suggest. With a slight 2% decline for the Alianza. This top-line result is within the above average's error but since regions have potential to trend, won't be taken as a direct implicature as such.

Both of these polls are being taken into account, as they potentially signify 2 things, 1) potentially more PPD strength in the West than the statewide average indicates & 2) Alianza being roughly around their 2020 Voteshare once undecideds are taken out (with undecideds they're beneath in both, like in the topline averages, without, they're right where they were in 2020.

In turn overall, this polling data—both the average and district polls—shows what is basically no growth, or loss on net for Alianza compared to 2020. Which would be a midling result for them in the governorship, but not on the district level, where holding their numbers (if Juan Dalmau's votes translate down ballot which isn't neccesarilly true everywhere as most all PIP's underperformed him in 2020) would indicate a decent night for them in the legislature. 

In terms of directionality both it and ENDI specifically and the averages more generally sugest that  Villafañe will underperform JGo on Margin, but not in terms of voteshare (ENDI says that Jiménez voters are splitting tickets for Villafañe too), adding more potential for a directional error to cost him the victory. 

Here, Villafañe is closer to historical examples that have led to ENDI polls predicting the wrong winner than JGo—barely. However, for Resident Commisioner's elections errors normally happen because of a close Gov race being found in the polls. In terms of governor Poll Errors Villafañe is outside the error for the second worst ENDI October Governor polling miss since 2000, 2004's 8%, by 2% (he leads ENDI by 10%) and is just within the 2016 one (10% error). 

I've noted before, and will do so again, that the Boycott is primarily contained to the furthest left sections of the Puerto Rican electorate, with MVC and the Alianza endorsing spoiling the ballot, Leading to Alianzista (PIP) Juan Dalmau having the voters with the largest abstencion rate amongst all Gov candidates. 

What can be gleamed from this polling data is the same as September, with the plebiscite results being Safe Statehood, and Likely Plurality, However, despite Most polls placing Libre Association at 20% and Independence at 15%, ENDI placing the combined at 44% instead of the usual 35% places a chance for Statehood to fall under 49% under the reported votes.

This is because Blank Ballots or explicit support for ELA are only 9% compared to 18% combined—likely a result of the confusingly worded Libre Association which sounds like Estado Libre Asosiado (Colonial status), which combined with the PPD campaigning on "ELA Mejorado"—a fundamentally illegal status where Puerto Rico has all the benifits of a state, but is a sovereign independent state—likely has prompted PPDs to assume that is a continuation of the current status, but reformed as the PPD claims, when in reality it's another form of independence. 

This difference has not been emphasized and likely will have a major effect on the results. 

Here, Romero is losing 6% from September, with Natal gaining 8%. This, however, is mainly a function of the ENDI poll fixing their major underestimation of Alianza—no longer requiring a disclaimer in the process. 

As a consequence, Romero leads by 5%, 37-32%, with 13% undecided. (1% goes to independent Candidate José "Joe" Vargas). This lead, and close result, is also explicable by ENDI's latest San Juan favorability polls, which Place Romero at +27% favorable at 62-35%; here, Natal is also up by 22%, 58-36%.

Likewise, this western PPD strength shows up to a lesser degree in the Full Master Services Ponce Poll of Ponce, indicating they're holding up better in the municipality by 5% than island wide. 

Whilst this still places an advantage for one PNP in the seat seat (Jamie Barlucea—who has a hometown advantage in Adjuntas, where both PNP challengers need to win), as JGo is still wining that poll—and seat—comfortably, the PPD can potentially hold one incumbent through their strength in Ponce, leading to Ponce V being Lean PNP and Tossup in seat 1 & 2 respectively

Lastly, we have Bayamón II, where upon a major scandal for Proyecto Dignidad Candidate César Vazquez has deflated his candidacy and strengthened Incumbent Migdalia Padilla, making it significantly harder for MVC candidate Jose Bernardo Marquez to overcome the longtime PNP advantage in the seat. 

Here, the only exceptions that will allow Bernardo to win is if there's a significantly closer than expected race for the governorship, if not (PIP) candidate Juan Dalmau actually winning, something which lies at the very end of the probability scale.

For now I'm moving this seat to Likely PNP, maintaining caution, but for most practical purposes, Migdalia Padilla is set to get a 7th term come november, and the race may move to Safe PNP in my final update.