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Tuesday
Tuesday
New El Nuevo Día Favorability Polls came out today (More are coming tomorrow & Thursday definitely)
Results are such:
For those that were both tested in March and October, we find a synchronization of results with the partisan baselines presented by ENDI—Here the three biggest losers are
(PPD) Terestella (-15%)
(PD) Javier Jiménez (-12%)
(PNP) Jenniffer Gonzalez (-10%)
The biggest Winners who improved their favorability are
- (MVC) Manuel Natal (+27%)
- (PNP) William Vilafañe (+18%)
- (PPD) Pablito Hernandez (+9%)
- The Partido Nuevo Progresista (+9%)
+/- change from March
Of note: PD lost 6%, MVC and PIP both gained 9% & 7% respectively on net favorability, (PPD) Jesús Manuel Ortiz gained 3%, and (PIP) Juan Dalmau gained 4%.
With regards to the State Senate elections, (PD) Joanne Rodriguez Veve is basically stagnant gaining only +2%, and Senate President Jose Luis Dalmau loses -4% on favorability
Wednesday
Wednesday
In a shocking turn of events, El Nuevo Día fixed their sampling issue that placed Alianza at a distant third in their Nov. 2023, & Mar. Polls—revealing what the consensus believed heading into this election season: a close fought race between (I) Miguel Romero and Manuel Natal
March & November Polls for Context
The difference in results can't be explained by Romero "More unpopular" but Rather by Yesterday's finding of Natal being the candidate to most benefit from a favorability increase since March
(Aforementioned sampling Caveat)
Looking Deeper we find more Militancy among Natal's supporters
- 90% are certain to vote for him (Natal-MVC)
- 87% for Terestella-PPD
- 80% for Romero-PNP
IMO this is indicative of Romero benefiting most by soft support, ie, people who like him, but can be swayed
This means 1 or 2 things (that are not mutually exclusive).
1) Romero can lose support from here on out
2) Romero benefits most from those whose support is soft and are more likely to be undecided.
Looking into the Partisan and Age Cross-tabs the number that sticks out for me is the 16% of PNPs voting for Natal, something to keep an eye on due to the coloquial nature of PNP identifiers to "not go with the wind, but stay with their party". Otherwise, the PPD number makes sense as there may have been some a good number of PPD Identifiers in 2020, who remain PPD Identifiers—voting for Natal in 2024
Age numbers look Contact on their face, though Terestella > Romero among 18-34s is a statistic that feels ~off~ to put it mildly (PPD is the party of old people, even more so than the PNP)
Overall, I'm back to where I was before I made a determination on (aforementionedly meh) data,
the three polls of this race Place Romero with a small advantage over Natal (in the average) basically where they were in 2020.
San Juan Mayoral Race:
- Lean PNP -> Tossup
Thursday
The Last Day of the ENDI polls, and we have two doozy of Polls, and here we have a redefining of the electoral landscape.
Today we find PNP Resident Commisioner Jenniffer González leads by 12% over frm PIP Senator Juan Dalmau, with Rep Jesús Manuel Ortiz taking 22%, and San Sebastián Mayor Javier Jiménez taking 9%.
This continues a trend seen in the past two ENDI Polls where González has declined in voteshare as her popularity continues to wane, going from 45% in November 2023, to 38% in March, and 37% in October.
I'll note that the prior polls had issues in estimating the Alianza vote so Dalmau/Ortiz numbers a change that is likely greater change than what has actually happened.
Looking at the Results, we find that at present, González is 4% above Pierluisi's numbers in 2020, and Jiménez is 3% above César Vázquez's while Ortiz is 10% below Charlie Delgado's, and Dalmau is 3% bellow the combined 2020 Lúgaro/Dalmau voteshare.
Taling a look into the crosstabs, we find that JGo tends to do worse the younger you get, and Dalmau better the younger you get—with Jesus Manuel Ortiz even among all groups.
Moreover, Gonzalez is holding steady in the broader SJ Metro (gaining 4% from Pierluisi's share), while Ortiz is retaining Charlie's votes there, but collapsing in "the Island" and Dalmau is holding up better in "the island" than Area Metro
The Area Metro Numbers indicate to me that the most likely to gain from the undecideds is Dalmau
Further, I need to emphasize that this excludes undecideds, which could boost the share JGo is getting to the expense of Dalmau in the Metro especially as the combined Dalmau+Lúgaro in the SJ Metro area was 35%.
also the normal crosstabs are buggy and have significantly larger Margins of Error than the topline poll.
Beyond this, we find that most parties are generally staying with those they align with, alongside the fact that Dalmau is performing best with those who aren't affiliated, and an 8% and 5% bleeding too him from those who identify with the PPD and PNP respectively.
Now taking a look into the Resident Commissioner election, we find that Senator William Villafañe leads by 10% over Lawyer Pablo José Hernández, with Senator Ana Irma rivera Lassén attaining 15% and Viviana Ramírez taking 7%.
Looking at the Resident commissioner voteshares vs Governor Voteshares, we find that Villafañe is benefiting insofar as he's holding 91% of Jenniffer's vote while gaining from 25% of Javier Jiménez's and 4% from Juan Dalmau and Ortiz's
meanwhile Pablo José has the best overperformance, outperforming Jesus Manuel Ortiz by 7%, attaining 16% of Javier Jiménez's and Juan Dalmau's votes, 6% of Jenniffer Gonzalez's and 94% of Jesus Manuel Ortiz.
Here, Ana Irma and Viviana Ramírez are doing worst, only getting Half of their gubernatorial Candidates (Juan Dalmau and Javier Jiménez's) votes.
Taking a look at the crosstabs, we find that like the Gov race, Pablo José holds steady throughout all age groups, while Ana Irma does best with younger voters and Villafañe older voters.
Interestingly, here, while Pablo José and Ana Irma do best in the Metro and Villafañe underperforms JGo in el Metro, while over-performing her throughout the island
Looking at the partisan crosstabs, we find Pablo José bleeding PPD identifiers to all parties at a smaller rate that Villafañe is bleeding PNP identifiers, while Ana Irma hasn't consolidated Alianza (PIP/MVC) voters, with a strong minority heading over to Pablo José and William Villafañe
In terms of those not affiliated, we find a 12% advantage for Pablo Jose over William Villafañe, with Ana Irma in a close third at 12%.
Among those who have decided for who they'd vote for, Jenniffer González leads with 38% to Juan Dalmau's 24%, followed by Jesus Manuel Ortiz's 22% and Javier Jiménez'z 9% while 7% are undecided.
Likewise, among those who are certain to vote, Villafañe attains 40% of the vote, while Pablo José Hernandez attains 29%, Anna Irma 16%, and Viviana Ramírez 6%, with 7% undecided (2% refused to vote)
Like with Romero, this militancy among result suggests that (PPD) Pablo José and (PIP Juan Dalmau receive the least militant level's of support when compared to others, especially Villafañe and Jenniffer Gonzalez.
This in turn, like (PNP) Miguel Romero puts them in an ideal position to benifit from the undecideds as they're strongest with soft, nearly undecided voters where (PNP) Jenniffer González, Villafañe, and (MVC) Natal benefit of of the militancy of their supporters.
Friday
Friday
For the First time in Puerto Rico's history, El Nuevo Día has polled Puerto Rico, and finds Kamala Harris leading by 15%, with Trump Trailing with 30%, 19% Boycotting and 6% unsure.
Here, overwhelmingly those who are leaving their ballot blank are democrats/democratic leaners, in protest of the PNP adding this result, calling it a waste of time
As an exercise: adding the "those who leave in blank" for (D) JMO and (PIP) JDM (nominally socialist) brings us to
(D) Kamala: 59% (+25%)
(R) Trump: 34%
I added it this way because the tendency to boycott is limited to those on the farthest left of the Political spectrum
This is basically identical to my estimation of the Partisanship of Puerto Rico's electorate, but far beneath Data For Progress' Biden+37% and PR Herald's Biden+38% polled top-line in 2020
and is also right in line with what @izqstrategies found for Puerto Rico back in March for Biden (D+25% officially before people knew that the Presidential election was happening and the boycott campaign announced)
Overall due to the issues with polling the presidential race with the 2020 election, I'm going with my original work on this as the baseline.
As such, once you take into account those who refuse to vote likely overwhelmingly would vote for her in the states this is a decent poll for Kamala Harris with regards to the Puerto Rican Vote.
Lastly the Puerto Rico Status Poll:
Statehood: 44%
Libre Asociación: 25%
Independence: 19%
Boycott: 8%
Here, the vote totals can be explained by a gigantic decline in Statehood support among Alianzistas and PPDs, cracking in at 6% for both—with voters flocking to what appears to be their party's primary status option while some boycott.
Interestingly, Libre Asociación is at 25%—this is likely is less because of support for it, than lack of knowledge for the term, as it is very close to "Estado Libre Asociado" which what Puerto Ricans call the current colonial status and is supported by the PPD.
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