Population Aging and Climate
Andrew Demos
The planet is in the throes of climate change and the effects are only beginning. The effects of climate change are being exacerbated by industrial civilization. Human energy use is a key contributor to emissions in the atmospheres. Meanwhile, the world’s demographics are rapidly shifting. Nearly all nations on the globe have growing proportions of population that is elderly. (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2015, pg 1)
This phenomenon is known as population aging or less charitably as “The Silver Tsunami”. With this never before seen shift the world is expected to see chances in emissions and energy use, which will have large-scale implications for the environment and health care industry.
Due to innovations in health, decreasing fertility and mortality, the elderly population is increasing in proportion. It is estimated that between 2015 and 2030, that humans of the age of 60 or over will increase by 56%, resulting in 2.1 billion seniors by 2015. (UNDESA, 2015, p. 1-2) With climate change this will be an issue for two reasons.
This population is far more susceptible to the impact of climate change
This population has the highest energy use compared to other populations. (Estiri & Zagheni, 2019)
Climate change can produce extreme heat, which can put stress on the body leading to exponential complications for the old and frail (Span, 2019). Some medications the elderly take for cholesterol or blood pressure reduce the body’s ability to regulate temperature (Span, 2019). Other extreme weather events have already shown that the elderly suffer most during climate disasters. For instance, half of the deaths during Hurricane Sandy were people over 75 (Span, 2019). In addition, research has shown that poor thermal efficiency in homes has an association with heat-related morbidity and mortality for seniors (Vandentorren et al., 2006). Paradoxically, the most at risk have become the architects' of their own destruction, when it comes to climate vulnerability.
The senior populations require more energy to endure. (Jo, 2020) With homes or buildings accounting for the largest share of energy consumption, this is a concern. (Estiri & Zagheni, 2019) Research is showing that the people tend to increase energy consumption with old age to maintain their well-being, thus adding to the issues of energy demand.
The Research
Hossein Estiri and Emilio Zagheni found in a 2019 study that household energy use increased from ages 30 to 55, then people hit a stabilization period until 70 (Estir & Zagheni, 2019). However after 70, energy use “increases rapidly” (Estir & Zagheni, 2019). Estiri and Zagheni attribute part of the reason energy use increases with age is in part due to increases in housing size. Another possible explanation was that the elderly may have issues maintaining their homes in regards to energy conservation, as well as using less efficient appliances (Estir & Zagheni, 2019).
Liddle 2013 also found that household size was a factor for energy use. The age of the head of the household, had a relationship to the size of the house and thus the energy consumption (Liddle, 2013). Another finding was that age influenced different levels of economic activity that lead to more use of energy. Liddle found both the youngest and oldest created a U-shaped pattern for higher energy consumption (Liddle, 2013). However, Liddle’s study concluded that the model used for the study was not sufficient to paint a clear picture of the effects of age and energy consumption (Liddle, 2013).
Kim and colleagues' study of South Korean populations addressed age and carbon emissions, which was different from the other studies measuring energy consumption. The study acknowledged that the elderly tended to stay at their residence more and longer, which impacted energy use (Kim et al., 2020). Kim and colleagues also hypothesized that this kind of behavior could increase overall emissions. However, the study concluded that even though the elderly stay at home more, they use overall fewer electronic appliances and are less active. The conclusion of this study stated that an aging population would have a inverse effect of overall emissions.
Elisabetta Magnani and Adeline Tubb’s study found that population aging could increase air pollution in part due to low demand for higher environmental quality. Examples of given were that the elderly were less likely to incur higher prices for environmental protections or regulations. The study also theorized that the elder may inadvertently burden the government’s budgets leading to reduced environmental protections. However, there was only minor evidence for this in the study (Magnani & Tubb, 2008).
Hope
If energy consumption is becoming an increasing concern, then there needs to be a mix of policy changes, leading to better energy efficiency. One such mitigation technology would be smart buildings. Smart building and homes use automated systems to operate and control heating and AC, as well as lighting. The technology can communicate with local power grids and soften demand. The US Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy is proposing incentives, in the form of tax credits or rebates, as well as financing options for consumers to upgrade the energy efficiency of their homes (LeBaron & Saul-Rinaldi, 2015). Other policy tools on the radar are implementing energy scores for homes and neighborhoods, that would make scores a variable to real-estate purchases and projects. This would affect appraisal values and be a factor in pricing.
Image from NYC.gov
Policies are a critical method of addressing the demands of population aging. With regulations to keep energy efficiency standards for buildings and homes, energy waste would be significantly diminished. Oregon is one of the state’s leading the way in energy efficiency policy. HB 2496 amends green building requirements for state buildings to upgrade energy efficiency standards for new developments. Other policies such as obligatory disclosure of housing temperature performance would be important to decreasing energy waste while protecting the elderly from temperature extremes.
Senior communal housing is not only a growing trend, but a means to address the issues of energy use and vulnerability. Developments in demographic-specific apartments and homes can provide a sense of community and lessen risks of inadequate thermal efficiency for seniors. Communal developments for seniors can lower the costs of upgrading and managing energy efficiency. Smart buildings and homes designed to optimize energy demand of that age demographic will mitigate the negative energy consumption outcomes that would grow with population aging. With all of these tools and policies available, humans have a real shot at minimizing the negative climate impacts of this historical demographic shift.
References
1. Estiri, H., & Zagheni, E. (2019). Age matters: Ageing and household energy demand in the United States. Energy Research & Social Science, 55, 62–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.05.006 \
2. Span, P. (2019, May 24). Older People Are Contributing to Climate Change, and Suffering From It. The New York Times, pp. D, Pg 5.
3. Yu, Y., Deng, Y. R., & Chen, F. F. (2018). Impact of population aging and industrial structure on CO 2 emissions and emissions trend prediction in China. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 9(3), 446–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2017.11.008
4. Liddle, B. (2013). Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses. Population and Environment, 35(3), 286–304. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-013-0198-4
5. Kim, J., Lim, H., & Jo, H. H. (2020). Do Aging and Low Fertility Reduce Carbon Emissions in Korea? Evidence from IPAT Augmented EKC Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 2972. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082972
6. Magnani, E., & Tubb, A. (2008). The link between economic growth and environmental quality: what is role of demographic change? International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 8(4), 365. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijgenvi.2008.019370
7. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Ageing 2015 (ST/ESA/SER.A/390). https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WPA2015_Report.pdf
8. LeBaron, R., & Saul-Rinaldi, K. (2015). A Policymaker’s Guide to Scaling Home Energy Upgrades. State and Local Energy Efficiency Action Network. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/policymakers-guide-scaling-home-energy-upgrades.pdf
9. Vandentorren, S., Bretin, P., Zeghnoun, A., Mandereau-Bruno, L., Croisier, A., Cochet, C., ... & Ledrans, M. (2006). August 2003 heat wave in France: risk factors for death of elderly people living at home. The European Journal of Public Health, 16(6), 583-591.