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Author: Mariah O'Brien RN/BSN, MPH candidate 2023
Environmental Systems & Human Health
Photo: Mariah O'Brien"The climate crisis is upon us, powered by our addiction to fossil fuels. The consequences for our health are real and often devastating."
"The climate crisis is upon us, powered by our addiction to fossil fuels. The consequences for our health are real and often devastating."
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General, World Health Organization, 2021
Poor air quality has been identified as the 4th largest international risk factor for early death as of 2019 (WHO, 2019). Emissions from fossil fuel burning vehicles is a direct cause of poor air quality. These emissions contain carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), volatile organic chemicals (VOCs), and particulate matter (PM) (Frumkin, 2016). Certain combinations of these with sunlight increase the amount of ground level ozone (O3). When reviewing air quality index reports for public safety, 5 of the 6 chemicals on the list are of significant concern at increased levels (Frumkin, 2016). The State of Global Air Report (2020) states that "these particles, as well as precursor chemicals that contribute to their secondary formation in the atmosphere, are emitted from vehicles, coal-burning power plants, industrial activities, waste burning, and many other human and natural sources."
Efforts to increase air quality have been discussed for decades, with some significant changes already implemented. For instance the 1970 Clean Air Act in the United States made a huge difference in ambient air quality in large cities such as Los Angles and New York, by mandating that the auto industry use catalytic converters to reduce emissions and generally phase out leaded gasoline (Frumkin, 2016). EPA emission limits have steadily helped to increase the fuel economy in standard vehicles with corporate average economy standards (CAFE) laws (Wikipedia, 2021). The first United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) met in 1995, after 158 States had signed on in 1992. In 1997, the United Nations signed the Kyoto Protocol, to mandate that industrialized nations would reduce their green house gas emissions by 2050 (Frumkin, 2016). More recently was the Paris Agreement in 2015, where 196 nations at COP 21 agreed to a limit of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius temperature increase by 2050 (Frumkin, 2016).
The impact of the COP Conferences has been significant over the years. When the first event occurred, there was a huge amount of protest that the scientific study of climate change was a hoax. In comparison, this year at COP 26 there were huge protests about how nations were not moving fast enough to implement the changes being recommended by scientists. Included in this presentation are several COP 26 recommendations, with new information on the most current research and plans for remediation (COP-26,2021).
WHO (2021) data indicates that "9 out of 10 people breathe outdoor air that exceeds the WHO guideline limits for air pollutants. As the saying goes, there is no planet B. So what can we do in our day to day lives that will improve air quality and reduce pollution in our daily lives?
Petroleum industry pressure vs COP 26 policies on auto makers
Petroleum industry pressure vs COP 26 policies on auto makers
While there has been significant lobbying on the part of the petroleum industry in the US ($112 million in 2020 alone) and around the world for a century, as noted in the WHO:COP 26 special report on climate change and health (2021) "the science is unequivocal that the burning of fossil fuels leads to air pollution deaths." Based on this data and policies that are being enacted around the world, the vehicle market is shifting towards electric vehicles (EVs) and zero emission vehicles (ZEVs).
Shipping goods via trucks accounts for 25% of the fuel consumption in the US (Hawkin, 2021). Major investments in fuel reduction technologies and electric trucks are in process by companies such as Tesla, Daimler, and Volvo.
Old standards of the industry such as Ford, GM, Dodge, Toyota, Volkswagen, and BMW have been increasing their investment in various innovative options like solar charge while driving and longer distance between charges (Hardman et al., 2021).
This has included joint efforts such as BMW and Subaru, Hercules unconventional 'on-demand production' in existing factories that it leases time from, or the GM effort to produce "hydrogen fuel cells for use in planes, trains, and automobiles as well as boats" (Wayland, 2021).
GM is also partnering in other industries to develop hydrogen reclamation power generation at commercial sites that do refining, smelting, and chemical production (Wayland, 2021). This could not only reduce emission exposure for people who live nearby, but also provide local power sources that are not dependent on the grid.
Range anxiety issues, charging stations, equity of access
Range anxiety issues, charging stations, equity of access
In the early years of electric vehicles there was a limited range that could be driven on a single charge based on early battery design limitations (Wikipedia, 2021). In the 2000-2010 range they trended from 50 to 100 miles per charge (mpc) and needed 8 hours to fully charge up (Wikipedia, 2021). Due to this, many consumers did not consider EVs to be a practical choice for anything other than 'in town commuting'. It was considered unlikely that that the driving range on an EV would ever come close to the range provided with a combustion engine until Tesla came onto the market in 2008 with the Roadster model that got over 200 mpc (Gregersen, 2021). Evan as the range has increased, there have been such strides made in the fuel efficiency of many combustion vehicles that the final goalpost keeps moving.
Another concern of many consumers is the access to charging stations. Currently there are only ~50,000 public charging station across the US, which are more densely packed in upper class and commercial areas of large cities (Hardman et al., 2021). For many people who live in urban apartment settings (especially older areas with lower socioeconomic status), there is not a dedicated place to park and recharge (Hardman et al., 2021). This can itself be a prohibitive factor in EV ownership. The initial cost of EVs in the early years were very high, for example the first year Tesla cost a whopping $109,000 (Gregersen, 2021). This cost certainly made it a luxury item and was well outside of the purchasing ability of most consumers. As with many other items in the consumer market, more options tend to drive prices down.
Batteries: disposal, recycling, sourcing materials, electric grid resilience
Batteries: disposal, recycling, sourcing materials, electric grid resilience
Many of the specific elements involved in making lithium-ion batteries are somewhat rare, and difficult to source. Socioeconomic, international, and environmental justice concepts need to be considered when reviewing these sources. Lithium, cobalt, and manganese are three of the 17 rare earth elements that are used (Elkind et al., 2020). Cobalt mining has been under scrutiny in many nations, as there are almost no international occupational health and safety standards or practices in place (Elkind et al., 2020). Until recycling becomes more efficient both materially and financially, the market demand will increase the need for these elements to be sourced from their original locations. (Elkind et al., 2020)
Summary of the research
Summary of the research
"The burning of fossil fuels is killing us; causing millions of premature deaths every year through air pollutants, costing the global economy billions of dollars annually, and fueling the climate crisis " (WHO, 2021)
"The IPPCC 6 report shows that public, planetary and economic health are inextricably linked. The race to a zero-emissions economy before 2050 is, therefore, a race to a healthy, clean and resilient future. We need to halve greenhouse gas emissions between 2020 and 2030 while reversing nature loss in order to reach net zero and limit global warming to a 1.5°C. " (COP-26 Special Report, 2021)
"The switch to vehicles with substantially lower emissions, such as electric vehicles, in situations where cars, vans and other transport options are needed, would lead to improved air quality, improved respiratory and cardiovascular health, and reduced noise pollution and road traffic injuries.... A rapid phase out of the internal combustion engine is also needed in public transport systems to ensure equitable access to clean and sustainable transport options for everyone. " (COP-26 Special Report, 2021)
"Some potential problems from increased battery production for various types of EVs would have to be managed. For example, sourcing of key metals such as cobalt, copper, and nickel, whose supply chains can have negative environmental and social impacts around the world. Additionally, the disposal of old batteries is an environmental challenge at this point. These issues should be managed alongside the growth of the EV market." (Hawkin, 2017)
"Electric vehicles charging infrastructure is not equitably dispersed and more low-cost charging is needed in lower income residential areas." (Hardman et al., 2021)
"Lower income communities are missing out on the lower running cost benefits of EV ownership, and their communities are not benefitting from the air quality improvements that EVs can deliver." (Hardman et al., 2021)
More information about Project Drawdown Direct link to Cop-26 Special Report
Chemical Difference: Outcomes of a Natural Experiment during COVID-19 Lockdown
Chemical Difference: Outcomes of a Natural Experiment during COVID-19 Lockdown
"In many places, the halt of movement and industry has shown a glimpse of a cleaner world, with many reports of exceptional blue skies. However, visual perception alone can be deceiving when observing air pollution." (IQAir, 2020). In the US, urban average nitrogen dioxide (NO2) decreased by 26%, and PM2.5 decreased by 11.3% (Berman et al., 2021). This is a significant change, and is especially important when considering that RNA for the COVID-19 virus has been detected on course PM, and that long-term PM2.5 exposure contributes to significant increased risk of COVID-19 mortality (15% per 1 μg/m3) (Berman et al., 2021).
5 Key Data Points Noted during Lockdown (IQAir, 2020)
9 of 10 key global cities experienced PM2.5 reductions from the same period in 2019
Cities with historically higher levels of PM2.5 pollution witnessed the most substantial drops, including Delhi (-60%), Seoul (-54%) and Wuhan (-44%)
During Wuhan’s 10-week lockdown, the city experienced its cleanest February and March air quality on record
Delhi’s ‘unhealthy’ and worse rated hours plummeted from 68% in 2019 to 17% during the lockdown period
Los Angeles experienced its longest stretch of clean air on record meeting the WHO air quality guidelines
More information on COVID-19 and air quality More information about lockdown and long term air quality
Visible Difference
Visible Difference
When you consider the impact of removing fossil fuel burning vehicles from the road, look at this comparison shot of the difference from a normal day in Delhi to a day during the COVID 19 lockdowns. The level of ambient air pollution dropped, and the population got to "enjoy blue skies and stars shining at night, often for the first time in years." (SoGA, 2020)
Comparison view of Rajpath, New Delhi 2018 and 2020 during COVID lockdown (SoGA, 2020)
"The life of every child born today will be profoundly affected by climate change, and current climate commitments are nowhere near enough to protect our children, grandchildren and future generations." (WHO, COP 26: Special Report, 2021)
On the Horizon
On the Horizon
Electric vehicles provide an option to help reduce air pollution, and improve overall air quality (Hawkin, 2021). Increasing the number of electric vehicles while phasing out fossil fuel vehicles will make a long term difference fairly quickly, once they become more widely available . In the passenger vehicle market more makes and models are coming out every year, ranging from mopeds to mini-vans, sports cars to full size trucks and more (Hardman, 2021). Significantly, information on Wikipedia (2021) shows the global number of EVs has risen from 1 million in 2016 to over 10 million in 2020.
By shifting to electric passenger vehicles, delivery/long haul trucks, scooters/motorcycles the United States could reduce it's potential CO2 emissions by 37.4 gigatons. (Hawkin, 2021)
Data shows that "compared to gasoline-powered vehicles, emissions drop by 50 percent if an EV’s power comes off the conventional grid. If powered by solar energy, carbon dioxide emissions fall by 95 percent." (Hawkin, 2021)
With increased availability and use of electric semitrucks, there will be a considerable amount of combustion fuel engines removed from the road (Hawkin, 2021). Early data shows that electric trucks have with a higher speed under tow weight, and a heavier towing capacity (Roadshow, 2021). What this means is that these trucks can move further and faster with more freight than the current internal combustion models .
Range anxiety issues, electric grid resilience
Range anxiety issues, electric grid resilience
For 2021 the standard range has now expanded beyond 300 mpc, with a push to expand over 450 mpc in the next few years (Hardman et al., 2021). Experts predict that there will be a point in the near future where the EV range and battery costs reach similar levels to gasoline powered vehicles (Hardman, et al., 2021).
Several manufacturers (Ford Lightning, Hercules Alpha) have AC/DC power inverter that can power a ~2000 sqft home for 3-4 days in a power emergency if the vehicle is fully charged (~10 days with careful use) (Roadshow, 2021). This could very well be a 'game changer' for people who live in isolated area, who are dependent on medical devices that use electricity, areas with frequent power fluctuations, or areas that are prone to climate/weather impacts.
$65 billion has been allocated in the recently approved US Infrastructure Bill for improvements and shifts towards more renewable energy sources across the nation (White House, 2021). This is in line with the WHO (2021) plans which indicate "Governments should prioritize clean air, including by switching to clean energy sources, by promoting more sustainable and efficient energy uses and policies, stimulating electrification, and by implementing interventions across different sectors."
Equitable access issues: cost to buyers, federal tax credits, charging stations in dense areas/apartments
Equitable access issues: cost to buyers, federal tax credits, charging stations in dense areas/apartments
Federal tax credits range from $8,000 to $12,500 (US built with Union labor) on EVs costing up to $80,000 for individuals who make up to $250,000 single/ $500,000 joint income (White House, 2021). Several states also have additional tax incentives, including buy back programs to get older models with higher emission levels off the road (Hardman et al., 2021). At the same time, manufacturer's are trying to bring down the cost of EVs to be comparable with a combustion vehicle.
Part of the federal infrastructure plan includes $7.5 billion spent on building 500,000 more charging stations to increase access and equity, specifically to people who do not own a home that they can easily recharge from (White House, 2021). This will help to increase the number on EVs in many different areas that have not made EV ownership a feasible option in the past.
Hawkin (2021) states that "e-bicycles make it possible to traverse steep hills or cover long distances with little effort, and allow elderly or physically disabled people to make active, low-carbon transportation choices." The option to make these kinds of choices has not necessarily been available to many of individuals in these groups in the past.
E-bikes, scooters and mopeds can also be a very reasonable option for many people around the world who have limited space for storage. Electric motorcycles and ATVs increase the range of access even further, going outside of the urban environment altogether.
The current cost of EVs now range (with federal tax incentives included where applicable) from $20,000 for a small family car to the upper range of luxury at $180,000 and ranges across more than 60 different makes and models (Hardman et al., 2021).
This could put EV ownership well inside of the option potential for many more people, especially when you consider the possibility of purchasing a used EV at even lower cost.
Example: Consider the 2022 Ford Lightning F-150 truck, one of the most popular vehicle make in the US for over 30 years. The base cost is ~$40,000. This makes the final cost ~$28,000 with tax credits applied, compared to standard combustion base model at ~$30,000 (Roadshow, 2021). Video included at the end of this segment with more details.
Policy shifts: in the US and Abroad
Policy shifts: in the US and Abroad
Policy updates from COP 26 include statements that the European Union plans to ban the sales of further combustion vehicles in 2035, while the United Kingdom will do the same in 2030 (WHO, 2021). The Netherlands have declared that they plan to reduce green house gases 49% in 2030, and by 95% in 2050 (Government of Netherlands, 2019). These goals are inline with the WHO (2021) guideline that indicates in "high-income nations, net-zero carbon emissions should be reached by 2040 at the latest."
US policy is pushing for 50% of vehicle sales by 2030 to be electric (Whitehouse, 2021). The tax credits mentioned above will push the financial aspects of purchasing an EV into the realm of feasible and achievable for many more American auto buyers. This marks a specific shift in policy away from fossil fuel vehicles that can hopefully help achieve the international goals set at COP 26 for maximum temperature increase of 1.5 degree C (WHO, 2021.
There is also a plan in the newly approved Infrastructure Bill for the Federal government to phase out or retrofit fossil fuel vehicles for EVs in it's fleet across the nation, from the postal trucks to semis. This would increase electrification in public transit vehicles such as trains, buses, and ferries as well as garbage trucks and municipal maintenance vehicles (Whitehouse, 2021). It would also have a direct impact nationally and internationally by implementing EVs as the standard of transportation in the various branches of the US military (Whitehouse, 2021.
Also on the positive side, Hawkin (2021) notes "a large increase in the use of lithium-ion batteries will necessitate large-scale production and battery recycling methods that are not yet commercially or practically viable." Considering that multiple different auto makers are investing over $60 billion in electric vehicle and battery development, there is a very high likelihood that there will be innovations in the field of recycling, repurposing, or recharging old batteries.
Of note is the WHO (2021) statement that "in addition to a rapid phase out of fossil fuel subsidies, effective taxation is needed. Pricing the negative health and economic externalities from burning fossil fuels can help ensure the transition to an energy system that protects and improves climate and health." This is a great example of the 'carrot and the stick' style social and governmental influence on behavior. By creating positive feedback loops for EV use financially while dis-incentivizing business in fossil fuels, the government can encourage the shift in public behavior towards a cleaner tomorrow.
This 9 minute video from Road Show gives details about the 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning model, including range, torque, towing capacity, power inverter option, and cost.
A Ray of Light: Stella Vita Camper Van
A Ray of Light: Stella Vita Camper Van
Image: STE / Bart van Overbeeke
The Stella Vita is a 100% Solar powered Electric Camper van that was designed by a group of EU college students, currently touring the EU. Gets a maximum range of 350 mile per charge, sleeps 2, and turns heads where ever it goes. It can charge while driving, but has 3 times the solar capacity when parked. (Orie, 2021) More information about Stella Vita
References
References
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Elkind, E. N., Heller, P. R. P., & Lamm, T. (2020, July). Sustainable Drive Sustainable Supply. Natural Resource Governance Institute . Retrieved December 2, 2021, from https://resourcegovernance.org/sites/default/files/documents/sustainable-drive-sustainable-supply-priorities-to-improve-the-electric-vehicle-battery-supply-chain.pdf
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Photo Credits
Photo Credits
Scooter girl: Photo by Kumpan Electric on Unsplash
Plugged in EVs: Photo by Michael Fousert on Unsplash
Black Tesla on intro page: Photo by Dmitry Novikov on Unsplash
White tesla: photo by Jorgen Hendrickson on Unsplash
Plug in station photo by Ed Harvey on Pexels
Man on scooter photo by Dmitriy Ganin on Pexels
Mt. Rainer and cabin: Photo by Mariah O'Brien
Stella Vita Camper Van, by Bart Van Overbeeke https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/stella-vita-solar-campervan-netherlands-spc-intl/index.html
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