Here are some quick tables to help you understand when it's a good time to gamble on silver arrows being in Level 9.
As you start to discover the non-important items (Boomerang, Magical Boomerang, Book, Red Candle, Magical Key, Red Ring, Wand, Heart Container, White Sword) in Levels 1-8, your odds of the Silver Arrows being in Level 9 increase. Finding one of the items that is required to be outside of Level 9 doesn't change these odds, as it has already been calculated in from the beginning.
The other unknown benefit to exploring Level 9 for the Silver Arrows is that you map out the level and also have a chance of running into the hint for the Silver Arrows, which can make a difference as well.
Roll the dice!
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White Sword OR Ladder Heart Shuffled
White Sword AND Ladder Heart NOT Shuffled
White Sword AND Ladder Heart Shuffled
Special thanks to Kababesh for helping fix errors and typos!