Shuttle Bay Life Expectancy

Ken Lin

USS Ohio

Similar to a previously published play aid that focused on analyzing expected battery life ("The Duracell Factor"), this analysis uses Monte Carlo spreadsheet simulation methods to analyze the expected survival life of the shuttle bay. The purpose of this play aid is to provide tactical guidance to captains who need to estimate how many internals they can take from a single large volley before starting to lose the shuttle bay.

Number of Internals That Produce the 1st Shuttle Hit

Number of Internals That Produce the 4th Shuttle Hit

The way to read the first table is as follows. Examine the Klingon line. On average (50^th percentile), the 1^st shuttle hit will come at the 42^th internal. 20% of the time the 1^st shuttle hit will come at or before the 35^th internal, and 5% of the time the 1^st shuttle hit will come at or before the 30^th internal.