[P.Keys Google Scholar profile]

Bold face indicates members of the Keys Group

journal articles

Submitted/ Under review

Beames, P., Brauman, K., Mitchell, P., McCracken, M., Schmeier, S., Wolf, A.T., Keys, P.W., Zia, A., Rosengaertner, S., Pathways to Instability: A synthetic framework to parse connections between water disturbances and conflict. Submitted. 

Sanhez Ortiz, G., Löberbauer, M., Tomašević, N.A., Mandic, O., Pavelic, D., Demir, V., Keys, P.W., Meijers, M.J.M., and Rugenstein, J.K.C. Meteoric water δ18O across the Dinarides: Role of topography, air-mass mixing, and precipitation seasonality. Submitted to Geologia Croatica

Silveira, M.V.F, Keys, P.W., Ruhoff, A., Anderson, L.O., von Randow, C., Adami, M., Artaxo, P., Costa, M.H., and Aragão, L.E.O.C. Observed shifts in regional climate due to Amazon deforestation. Submitted.

Diao, C., Keys, P.W., Bell, C.M., Barnes, E.A., and Hurrell, J.M. A model study exploring the decision loop between unilateral stratospheric aerosol injection scenario design and Earth system simulations. Submitted. Preprint available here: https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.172901451.16665121/v1 

Keys, P.W. and Bell, C.M. Designing a scenario of unilateral climate intervention. Under review. Preprint available here:  https://doi.org/10.31223/X56T3P 

Dal Prá, G., Chan, C.Y.C., Burkhanov, T., Arnscheidt, C.W., Cremades, R., Cremer, C.Z., Galaz, V., Gambhir, A., Heikkinen, K., HingeI, M., Hoyer, D., Jehn, F.I., Larcey, P., Kemp, L., Keys, P.W., Kiyaei, E., Lade, S.J., Manheim, D., McKay, D.A., Pandey, D., Pegram, T., Spaiser, V., Tómasdóttir, K., Turchin, P., Werners, S.E., Workman, M., Wunderling, N., Yamashita, H., Sutherland, W.J. A Horizon Scan of Global Catastrophic Risks. http://ssrn.com/abstract=5005075 

Keys, P.W., Barnes, E.A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Hertel, T.W., Baldos, U.L.C., and Hedlund, J. Examining near-term climate stress transmitted via global food trade. Under Review. Preprint available here: https://doi.org/10.31223/X5ZB0J 

Arcodia, M.C., Barnes, E.A., Durack., P.J., Keys, P.W., and Rocha, J. Sea Surface Salinity Provides Subseasonal Predictability for Forecasts of Opportunity of U.S. Summertime Precipitation. Submitted to JGR: Atmospheres. Preprint available here: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172590237.75793923/v1 

Published

2024

Salerno, J., Gaughan, A.E., Warrier, R., Boone, R., Stevens, F., Keys, P.W., Mangewa, L.J., Mombo, F., De Sherbinin, A.M., Hartter, J., and Hunter, L. Rural migration under climate and land systems change. Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01396-6  

Moore, M.L, Wang-Erlandsson, L., Bodin, Ö, Enqvist, J., Jaramillo, F., Jónás, K., Folke, C., Garcia M.M., Keys, P.W., Lade, S., Martin, R., Matthews, N., Pranindita, A., Rocha, J.C., Vora S. "From Fit to Fitness: governing complex system dynamics in the Anthropocene for water resilience" Accepted at Nature Water. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00257-y. 

Rockström, J., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Folke, C., Gerten, D., Gordon, L., Keys, P.W. Malin Falkenmark - Water pioneer who coined the notion of water crowding and colored the water cycle. Ambio. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-01989-7 

Driscoll, E., Needham, M., Keys, P.W., and Rugenstein, J.K.C. Cenozoic stable isotope constraints on the Eurasia hydroclimate response to high CO2.  Earth and Planetary Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2024.118623 

Warrier, R., Boone, R.B., Keys, P.W., Galvin, K. Exploring linkages between protected area access and Kenyan pastoralist food security using a new agent-based model. Ecology and Society. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-14455-290118 

Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Moore, M.L., Pranindita, A., Stenzel, F., Varis, O., Warrier, R., Wong, R.B., d’Odorico, P. and Folke, C. The Dry Sky: Futures for Humanity’s Modification of the Atmospheric Water Cycle. Published at Global Sustainability. 

Keys, P.W., Collins, P., Chaplin-Kramer, R., and Wang-Erlandsson, L. Atmospheric water recycling an essential feature of critical natural asset stewardship. Accepted at Global Sustainability.

2023

Keys, P.W. Badia, L., and Warrier, R. The Future in Anthropocene Science. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003820

Bell, C.M. and Keys, P.W. Strategic Logic of Unilateral Climate Intervention. Accepted at Environmental Research Letters; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf94b 

Keys, P.W. The plot must thicken: A call for increased attention to social surprises in scenarios of climate futures. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace4e0  

Pereira, L., Ortuño Crespo, Amon, D., Badhe, R., Bandeira, S., Bengtsson, F., Boettcher, M., Carmine, G., Cheung, W.W.L., Chibwe, B., Dunn,D., Gasalla, M.A., Halouani, G., Johnson, D.E., Jouffray, J.B., Juri, S., Keys, P.W., Lopez, J., Lübker, H.M., Merrie, A.S., Obaidullah, F., Palacios-Abrantes, J., Shannon, L.J., Sumaila, U.R., Superchi,E., Terry, N., Wabnitz, C.C.C., Yasuhara, M., and Wei Zhou. The Living Infinite: Envisioning futures for transformed human-nature relationships on the high seas. Marine Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105644 

Diffenbaugh, N.S., Barnes, E.A., Keys, P.W. Probability of continued local-scale warming and extreme events during and after decarbonization. Environmental Research: Climate. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf2f 

Lüebker, H.M., Keys, P.W., Merrie, A., Rocha, J.C., and Pereira, L.M. Imagination Beyond National Jurisdiction - Computing and Envisioning Possible Sustainable Futures for the High Seas. NPJ Ocean Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-023-00012-y 

Merrie, A.S. and Keys, P.W. Adventures in Science Fiction Prototyping. Vector. 

2022

Keys, P.W., Barnes, E.A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Hurrell, J.W. and Bell, C.M. Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment. Accepted at PNAS. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2210036119 

Keys, P. W., R. Warrier, R. J. van der Ent, K. A. Galvin, and R. B. Boone, 2022: Analysis of Kenya’s Atmospheric Moisture Sources and Sinks. Earth Interactions, 26 (1) 139–150. https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-21-0016.1 

Keys, P.W. and Keys, M.P. Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive-fiction game 'Lagos2199'. Accepted at Ecology & Society. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13393-270340 

Keys, P.W. and Meyer, A.E. Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis And Structured Futuring to Create Story-based Scenarios. Earth's Future, 10 (3) https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002206 

Chaplin-Kramer R., Neugarten R. A., Sharp R. P., Collins P. M., Polasky S., Hole D., Schuster R., Strimas-Mackey M., Mulligan M., Brandon C., Diaz S., Fluet-Chouinard E., Gorenflo L. J., Johnson J. A., Keys P. W., Longley-Wood K., McIntyre P. B., Noon M., Pascual U., Liermann C. R., et al. Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets for people. Nature Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-022-01934-5 

Pereira, L., Ortuño Crespo, G. Juri, S., Keys, P.W., Lübker, H., … Wabnitz, C.C.C. The Living Infinite. Vector. 

Wang-Erlandsson, L., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R.J., Fetzer, I., te Wierik, Sofie, Porkka, M., Staal, A., Jaramillo, F., Dahlmann, H. , Singh,  C., Greve, P., Gerten, D., Keys, P.W., Gleeson, T., Cornell,  S.E., Steffen, W., Rockström, J., A planetary boundary for green water. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00287-8

Lazurko, A. and Keys, P.W. A call for agile futures practice to capture windows of opportunity for transformation: Rapid worldbuilding, sci-fi prototyping, and visual art to imagine positive climate futures emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. Ecology and Society, 27 (3). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13531-270310 

2021

Keys, P.W. , Barnes, E.A., and Carter, E. A machine-learning approach to human footprint index estimation with applications to sustainable development. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe00a

Cluett, A., Thomas, E., Evans, S., and Keys, P.W. Seasonal Variations in Moisture Origin Explain Spatial Contrast in Precipitation Isotope Seasonality on Coastal Western Greenland. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033543 

Spijkers, J., Merrie, A., Wabnitz, C.C.C., Osborne, M., Mobjork, M., Bodin, O., Selig, E., Le Billon, P., Hendrix, C., Singh, G., Keys, P.W., and Morrison, T.H. Exploring the future of fisheries conflict through narrative scenarios. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.004 

2020

Gleeson, T., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Zipper, S.C., Porkka, M., Jaramillo, F. ...The Water Planetary Boundary: Interrogation and Revision. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.02.009 

Gleeson, T., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Zipper, S.C., Porkka, M., Jaramillo, F., ... Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth System resilience in the Anthropocene. Accepted in Water Resources Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024957

2019

Keys, P.W., Porkka, M., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Fetzer I., Gleeson, T., and Gordon, L. J. Invisible Water Security: Moisture Recycling and Water Resilience. Water Security. Volume 8, December 2019, 100046. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100046

Bjørn, A., Bulle, C., Sim, S., Cornell, S., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Margni, M., Keys, P.W., King, Henry. Challenges and opportunities towards improved application of the planetary boundary for Land-system change in life cycle assessment of products. Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133964

Findell, K., Keys, P.W., van der Ent, R.J., Krasting, J., Berg, A., and Lintner, B. Rising Temperatures Increase Importance of Oceanic Evaporation as a Source for Continental Precipitation. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0145.1

Keys, P.W., Galaz, V., Nystrom, M., Cornell, S., Dyer, M., Matthews, N., and Folke, C. (2019) Anthropocene risk.  Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0327-x  

---> Click here for a copy of the Nature Sustainability article, "Anthropocene Risk"

2018

Wang-Erlandsson, L., van der Ent, R. J., Keys, P.W., Fetzer I., Savenije, H. H. G. and Gordon, L. J. (2018) Remote land-use impacts on river flows though atmospheric teleconnection. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (22) 4311-4328. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018

Keys, P.W. and Wang-Erlandsson, L. (2018) On the social dynamics of moisture recycling. Earth System Dynamics 9 (2): 829-847. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018

Keys, P.W. and Falkenmark, M. (2018) Green water and African sustainability. Food Security. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-018-0790-7

Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Gordon, L.J. (2018) Megacity precipitationsheds reveal tele-connected water security challenges. PLoS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194311

Linkov, I., Fox‐Lent, C., Read, L., Allen, C. R., Arnott, J. C., Bellini, E. , Coaffee, J., Florin, M., Hatfield, K., Hyde, I., Hynes, W., Jovanovic, A., Kasperson, R., Katzenberger, J., Keys, P. W., Lambert, J. H., Moss, R., Murdoch, P. S., Palma‐Oliveira, J., Pulwarty, R. S., Sands, D., Thomas, E. A., Tye, M. R. and Woods, D. (2018), Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment. Risk Analysis. . doi:10.1111/risa.12991

2017

Merrie, A., Keys, P.W., Metian, M., and Osterblom, H. (2017) Radical Ocean Futures – An imaginative narrative scenarios approach. FUTURES (95), 22-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.005

Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Galaz, V., Ebbesson, J., and Gordon, L.J. (2017) Approaching Moisture Recycling Governance. Global Environmental Change (45) 15-23. doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.007

2016

Bell, C.M. and Keys, P.W. (2016) Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Foreign Policy Analysis. DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orw002

Wang-Erlandsson, L, Bastiaanssen, W. G. M., Gao, H., Jagermeyr, J., Senay, G.B., Gordon, L.J., Keys, P.W., van Dijk,A. I. J. M., Guerschman, J.P., and Savenije, H. H. G. (2016) Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1459-1481, doi:10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016

Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Gordon, L.J. (2016) Revealing Invisible Water: Moisture Recycling as an Ecosystem service. PLoS ONE 11(3): e0151993. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151993

2014

van der Ent, R. J., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Keys, P. W., and Savenije, H. H. G. (2014) Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle – Part 2: Moisture recycling, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 471-481, doi:10.5194/esd-5-471-2014

Keys, P.W., Barnes, E.A., van der Ent, R.J., and Gordon, L.J. (2014) Variability of moisture recycling using a precipitationshed framework.  Hydrol. Earth. Syst. Sci. doi:10.5194/hess-18-3937-2014

2012

Keys, P. W., van der Ent, R. J., Gordon, L. J., Hoff, H., Nikoli, R., and Savenije, H. H. G. (2012) Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733-746, doi:10.5194/bg-9-733-2012, 2012.

2010

Binder, L.C.W, Barcelos, J.K., Booth, D.B., Darzen, M., Elsner, M.M., Fenske, R., Graham, T.F., Hamlet, A.F., Hodges-Howell, J., Jackson, J.E., Karr, C., Keys, P.W., Littell, J.S., Mantua, N., Marlow, J., McKenzie, D., Robinson-Dorn, M., Rosenberg, E.A., Stöckle, C.O., Vano, J.A. (2010). Preparing for climate change in Washington State. Climatic Change. 102 (1-2), 351-376. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9850-5

Rosenberg, E.A., Keys, P.W., Booth, D.B., Hartley, D., Burkey, J., Steinemann, A.C., and Lettenmaier, D.P. (2010). Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State. Climatic Change. 102, (1-2), 319-349. doi 10.1007/s10584-010-9847-0.

book chapters & reports

Dougherty, B. and Keys, P.W. (2016). Local, National, Regional Climate Change Programme: Food Security and Climate Change. Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative (AGEDI) (permanent link)

Bell, C.M., Keys, P.W., and  Stossmeister, R. (2014) Food Policy and Civil War in Africa’s Drought-Suffering States. in: Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa, eds. Bob, Urmilla and Salome Bronkhorst. Berliner Wissenschafts-Verlag (Berlin Science Publishers), Berlin, Germany

Keys, P.W., Barron, J., and Lannerstad, M. (2012). Releasing the pressure: water resource efficiencies and gains for ecosystem services. United Nations Environment Programme and the Stockholm Environment Institute. ISBN: 978-92-807-3340-5

Barron, J. and Keys, P.W. (2011). Chapter 12: Watershed management through a resilience lens, in: Integrated Watershed Management in Rainfed Agriculture. eds. Wani, S.P., Rockstr ̈om, J., and Sahrawat, K.L. CRC Press.