publications
[P.Keys Google Scholar profile]
Bold face indicates members of the Keys Group
journal articles
Submitted/ Under review
Keys, P.W., Barnes, E.A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Hertel, T.W., Baldos, U.L.C., and Hedlund, J. Examining near-term climate stress transmitted via global food trade. Under Review.
Arcodia, M.C., Barnes, E.A., Durack., P.J., Keys, P.W., and Rocha, J. Sea Surface Salinity Provides Subseasonal Predictability for Forecasts of Opportunity of U.S. Summertime Precipitation. Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters. Preprint available here: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.170602087.73596352/v1
Wang-Erlandsson, L., van der Ent, R., Staal, A., Keys, P.W., Zemp, D.C., Fetzer, I., Taniguchi, M., Gordon, L.J. Dry periods amplify the Amazon and Congo forests’ rainfall self-reliance. Under Revision at Water Resources Research.
Published
2024
Salerno, J., Gaughan, A.E., Warrier, R., Boone, R., Stevens, F., Keys, P.W., Mangewa, L.J., Mombo, F., De Sherbinin, A.M., Hartter, J., and Hunter, L. Rural migration under climate and land systems change. Accepted at Nature Sustainability.
Moore, M.L, Wang-Erlandsson, L., Bodin, Ö, Enqvist, J., Jaramillo, F., Jónás, K., Folke, C., Garcia M.M., Keys, P.W., Lade, S., Martin, R., Matthews, N., Pranindita, A., Rocha, J.C., Vora S. "From Fit to Fitness: governing complex system dynamics in the Anthropocene for water resilience" Accepted at Nature Water. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00257-y.
Rockström, J., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Folke, C., Gerten, D., Gordon, L., Keys, P.W. Malin Falkenmark - Water pioneer who coined the notion of water crowding and colored the water cycle. Ambio. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-01989-7
Driscoll, E., Needham, M., Keys, P.W., and Rugenstein, J.K.C. Cenozoic stable isotope constraints on the Eurasia hydroclimate response to high CO2. Accepted at Earth and Planetary Research Letters.
Warrier, R., Boone, R.B., Keys, P.W., Galvin, K. Exploring linkages between protected area access and Kenyan pastoralist food security using a new agent-based model. Ecology and Society. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-14455-290118
Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Moore, M.L., Pranindita, A., Stenzel, F., Varis, O., Warrier, R., Wong, R.B., d’Odorico, P. and Folke, C. The Dry Sky: Futures for Humanity’s Modification of the Atmospheric Water Cycle. Published at Global Sustainability.
Keys, P.W., Collins, P., Chaplin-Kramer, R., and Wang-Erlandsson, L. Atmospheric water recycling an essential feature of critical natural asset stewardship. Accepted at Global Sustainability.
2023
Keys, P.W. Badia, L., and Warrier, R. The Future in Anthropocene Science. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003820
Bell, C.M. and Keys, P.W. Strategic Logic of Unilateral Climate Intervention. Accepted at Environmental Research Letters; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf94b
Keys, P.W. The plot must thicken: A call for increased attention to social surprises in scenarios of climate futures. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace4e0
Pereira, L., Ortuño Crespo, Amon, D., Badhe, R., Bandeira, S., Bengtsson, F., Boettcher, M., Carmine, G., Cheung, W.W.L., Chibwe, B., Dunn,D., Gasalla, M.A., Halouani, G., Johnson, D.E., Jouffray, J.B., Juri, S., Keys, P.W., Lopez, J., Lübker, H.M., Merrie, A.S., Obaidullah, F., Palacios-Abrantes, J., Shannon, L.J., Sumaila, U.R., Superchi,E., Terry, N., Wabnitz, C.C.C., Yasuhara, M., and Wei Zhou. The Living Infinite: Envisioning futures for transformed human-nature relationships on the high seas. Marine Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105644
Diffenbaugh, N.S., Barnes, E.A., Keys, P.W. Probability of continued local-scale warming and extreme events during and after decarbonization. Environmental Research: Climate. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/accf2f
Lüebker, H.M., Keys, P.W., Merrie, A., Rocha, J.C., and Pereira, L.M. Imagination Beyond National Jurisdiction - Computing and Envisioning Possible Sustainable Futures for the High Seas. NPJ Ocean Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-023-00012-y
Merrie, A.S. and Keys, P.W. Adventures in Science Fiction Prototyping. Vector.
2022
Keys, P.W., Barnes, E.A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Hurrell, J.W. and Bell, C.M. Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment. Accepted at PNAS. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2210036119
Keys, P. W., R. Warrier, R. J. van der Ent, K. A. Galvin, and R. B. Boone, 2022: Analysis of Kenya’s Atmospheric Moisture Sources and Sinks. Earth Interactions, 26 (1) 139–150. https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-21-0016.1
Keys, P.W. and Keys, M.P. Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive-fiction game 'Lagos2199'. Accepted at Ecology & Society. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13393-270340
Keys, P.W. and Meyer, A.E. Visions of the Arctic Future: Blending Computational Text Analysis And Structured Futuring to Create Story-based Scenarios. Earth's Future, 10 (3) https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002206
Chaplin-Kramer R., Neugarten R. A., Sharp R. P., Collins P. M., Polasky S., Hole D., Schuster R., Strimas-Mackey M., Mulligan M., Brandon C., Diaz S., Fluet-Chouinard E., Gorenflo L. J., Johnson J. A., Keys P. W., Longley-Wood K., McIntyre P. B., Noon M., Pascual U., Liermann C. R., et al. Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets for people. Nature Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-022-01934-5
Pereira, L., Ortuño Crespo, G. Juri, S., Keys, P.W., Lübker, H., … Wabnitz, C.C.C. The Living Infinite. Vector.
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R.J., Fetzer, I., te Wierik, Sofie, Porkka, M., Staal, A., Jaramillo, F., Dahlmann, H. , Singh, C., Greve, P., Gerten, D., Keys, P.W., Gleeson, T., Cornell, S.E., Steffen, W., Rockström, J., A planetary boundary for green water. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00287-8
Lazurko, A. and Keys, P.W. A call for agile futures practice to capture windows of opportunity for transformation: Rapid worldbuilding, sci-fi prototyping, and visual art to imagine positive climate futures emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. Ecology and Society, 27 (3). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13531-270310
2021
Keys, P.W. , Barnes, E.A., and Carter, E. A machine-learning approach to human footprint index estimation with applications to sustainable development. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe00a
Cluett, A., Thomas, E., Evans, S., and Keys, P.W. Seasonal Variations in Moisture Origin Explain Spatial Contrast in Precipitation Isotope Seasonality on Coastal Western Greenland. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033543
Spijkers, J., Merrie, A., Wabnitz, C.C.C., Osborne, M., Mobjork, M., Bodin, O., Selig, E., Le Billon, P., Hendrix, C., Singh, G., Keys, P.W., and Morrison, T.H. Exploring the future of fisheries conflict through narrative scenarios. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.004
2020
Gleeson, T., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Zipper, S.C., Porkka, M., Jaramillo, F. ...The Water Planetary Boundary: Interrogation and Revision. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.02.009
Gleeson, T., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Zipper, S.C., Porkka, M., Jaramillo, F., ... Illuminating water cycle modifications and Earth System resilience in the Anthropocene. Accepted in Water Resources Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024957
2019
Keys, P.W., Porkka, M., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Fetzer I., Gleeson, T., and Gordon, L. J. Invisible Water Security: Moisture Recycling and Water Resilience. Water Security. Volume 8, December 2019, 100046. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100046
Bjørn, A., Bulle, C., Sim, S., Cornell, S., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Margni, M., Keys, P.W., King, Henry. Challenges and opportunities towards improved application of the planetary boundary for Land-system change in life cycle assessment of products. Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133964
Findell, K., Keys, P.W., van der Ent, R.J., Krasting, J., Berg, A., and Lintner, B. Rising Temperatures Increase Importance of Oceanic Evaporation as a Source for Continental Precipitation. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0145.1
Keys, P.W., Galaz, V., Nystrom, M., Cornell, S., Dyer, M., Matthews, N., and Folke, C. (2019) Anthropocene risk. Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0327-x
---> Click here for a copy of the Nature Sustainability article, "Anthropocene Risk"
2018
Wang-Erlandsson, L., van der Ent, R. J., Keys, P.W., Fetzer I., Savenije, H. H. G. and Gordon, L. J. (2018) Remote land-use impacts on river flows though atmospheric teleconnection. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (22) 4311-4328. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018
Keys, P.W. and Wang-Erlandsson, L. (2018) On the social dynamics of moisture recycling. Earth System Dynamics 9 (2): 829-847. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018
Keys, P.W. and Falkenmark, M. (2018) Green water and African sustainability. Food Security. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-018-0790-7
Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Gordon, L.J. (2018) Megacity precipitationsheds reveal tele-connected water security challenges. PLoS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194311
Linkov, I., Fox‐Lent, C., Read, L., Allen, C. R., Arnott, J. C., Bellini, E. , Coaffee, J., Florin, M., Hatfield, K., Hyde, I., Hynes, W., Jovanovic, A., Kasperson, R., Katzenberger, J., Keys, P. W., Lambert, J. H., Moss, R., Murdoch, P. S., Palma‐Oliveira, J., Pulwarty, R. S., Sands, D., Thomas, E. A., Tye, M. R. and Woods, D. (2018), Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment. Risk Analysis. . doi:10.1111/risa.12991
2017
Merrie, A., Keys, P.W., Metian, M., and Osterblom, H. (2017) Radical Ocean Futures – An imaginative narrative scenarios approach. FUTURES (95), 22-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.005
Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Galaz, V., Ebbesson, J., and Gordon, L.J. (2017) Approaching Moisture Recycling Governance. Global Environmental Change (45) 15-23. doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.007
2016
Bell, C.M. and Keys, P.W. (2016) Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Foreign Policy Analysis. DOI: 10.1093/fpa/orw002
Wang-Erlandsson, L, Bastiaanssen, W. G. M., Gao, H., Jagermeyr, J., Senay, G.B., Gordon, L.J., Keys, P.W., van Dijk,A. I. J. M., Guerschman, J.P., and Savenije, H. H. G. (2016) Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1459-1481, doi:10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016
Keys, P.W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Gordon, L.J. (2016) Revealing Invisible Water: Moisture Recycling as an Ecosystem service. PLoS ONE 11(3): e0151993. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151993
2014
van der Ent, R. J., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Keys, P. W., and Savenije, H. H. G. (2014) Contrasting roles of interception and transpiration in the hydrological cycle – Part 2: Moisture recycling, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 471-481, doi:10.5194/esd-5-471-2014
Keys, P.W., Barnes, E.A., van der Ent, R.J., and Gordon, L.J. (2014) Variability of moisture recycling using a precipitationshed framework. Hydrol. Earth. Syst. Sci. doi:10.5194/hess-18-3937-2014
2012
Keys, P. W., van der Ent, R. J., Gordon, L. J., Hoff, H., Nikoli, R., and Savenije, H. H. G. (2012) Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733-746, doi:10.5194/bg-9-733-2012, 2012.
2010
Binder, L.C.W, Barcelos, J.K., Booth, D.B., Darzen, M., Elsner, M.M., Fenske, R., Graham, T.F., Hamlet, A.F., Hodges-Howell, J., Jackson, J.E., Karr, C., Keys, P.W., Littell, J.S., Mantua, N., Marlow, J., McKenzie, D., Robinson-Dorn, M., Rosenberg, E.A., Stöckle, C.O., Vano, J.A. (2010). Preparing for climate change in Washington State. Climatic Change. 102 (1-2), 351-376. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9850-5
Rosenberg, E.A., Keys, P.W., Booth, D.B., Hartley, D., Burkey, J., Steinemann, A.C., and Lettenmaier, D.P. (2010). Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State. Climatic Change. 102, (1-2), 319-349. doi 10.1007/s10584-010-9847-0.
book chapters & reports
Dougherty, B. and Keys, P.W. (2016). Local, National, Regional Climate Change Programme: Food Security and Climate Change. Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative (AGEDI) (permanent link)
Bell, C.M., Keys, P.W., and Stossmeister, R. (2014) Food Policy and Civil War in Africa’s Drought-Suffering States. in: Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa, eds. Bob, Urmilla and Salome Bronkhorst. Berliner Wissenschafts-Verlag (Berlin Science Publishers), Berlin, Germany
Keys, P.W., Barron, J., and Lannerstad, M. (2012). Releasing the pressure: water resource efficiencies and gains for ecosystem services. United Nations Environment Programme and the Stockholm Environment Institute. ISBN: 978-92-807-3340-5
Barron, J. and Keys, P.W. (2011). Chapter 12: Watershed management through a resilience lens, in: Integrated Watershed Management in Rainfed Agriculture. eds. Wani, S.P., Rockstr ̈om, J., and Sahrawat, K.L. CRC Press.