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Theory and Data
Theory and Data
Population distibution
Population distibution
Health
Health
Education
Education
Birth Rate: Number of births over a given period of time over the total population of the same period x1000
Fertility Rate: Average number of children who would be born to a woman in her reproductive performance years.
Mortality Rate: Number of deaths during a determined period over the total population during the same period X1000.
Life Expectancy: It represents the mean length of life of individuals from a hypothetical cohort of births whose members have been subject since birth to the mortality rates for a given year. International comparisons generally use Life expectancy at birth.
Natural Growth Rate: Births minus deaths during a given period of time over the total population X100.
Annual Growth Rate: Births minus deaths plus immigrants minus emigrants, during a given period of time over the total population X100.
Population Pyramids: It is also called "age-sex pyramid", is a horizontal bar graph that illustrates the distribution of different age groups (called cohorts) in a country in a given year, showing the number of males on the left and of females on the right.
Unified growth theory
Unified growth theory
Unified growth theory emphasizes the interactions between technology, human capital, and population changes, explaining how these factors jointly drive economic development.
Malthusian Regime - Demographic Transition - Modern Growth
Demographic Transition Model
Demographic Transition Model
Non-altruist Parents: children as an investment good:
Decreasing mortality rate: parents decide how many children depending on their survival possibility. As LE is increasing, then they have less kids.
Rupture of the tie family-company: children do not inherit parents’ jobs, then they do not contribute with their effort to increase the family´s income.
Welfare State: it guarantees the sustenance of elderly.
Altruist Parents: children as a consumption good:
Female incorporation to labor markets increases the opportunity cost of having children
Increase of children costs due to necessity of investing on H (societies pressure more because they need high qualified workers).
Demographic Dividend: Definition & Explanation
Demographic Dividend: Definition & Explanation
The demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential that arises when a country experiences a shift in its population structure, particularly a decline in birth and death rates, leading to a larger proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) compared to dependents (children and elderly). Reduction in the Number of Dependents per Employed Person
How Does It Work?
The demographic dividend occurs in four key channels:
Increased Labor Supply: A larger working-age population means more people are available for employment.
Higher Savings and Investment: With fewer dependents, families can save more money, leading to greater investment in businesses, infrastructure, and economic growth.
Improvement in Human Capital (Health & Education): As fertility rates decline, families invest more in each child’s education and healthcare, resulting in a more skilled workforce.
Growth in Domestic Demand: More working adults with incomes means increased consumer spending, driving demand for goods and services and boosting economic activity.
Conditions for a Successful Demographic Dividend
Quality Education – A skilled workforce is essential.
Job Creation – Economic policies must promote employment.
Good Governance – Stable institutions support growth.
Healthcare Access – A healthy workforce ensures long-term productivity.
Challenges & Risks
If job creation does not match population growth, unemployment and underemployment may rise.
An aging population in later years can reverse the dividend, leading to higher dependency ratios and economic challenges.
Population Pyramids by Region CIA
https://www.populationpyramid.net/
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/06/visual-guide-global-population-pyramids-demographics/
Beautiful But Terrible Population Pyramids
State-of-the-World-Sculptures ART
Migration
Migration
Neoclassical model people go from countries with low salaries to high salaries countries, this procedure implies:
1.- rise in global productivity
2.- wages fall in the receiving country and raise at the exit
Push Factors: international inequality, inequality within the country, economic and social problems, lack of expectations for progress….
Pull Factors: labour opportunities in destination, increasing homogeneous tastes and global values, social networks, relatives links in the destination country…
Neoclassical model people go from countries with low salaries to high salaries countries:
1.- rise in global productivity
2.- wages fall in the receiving country and raise at the exit ncountry
Push Factors: international inequality, inequality within the country, economic and social problems, lack of expectations for progress….
Pull Factors: labour opportunities, increasing homogeneous tastes and global values, social networks, relatives links in the destination country…
Inequality; https://wid.world/
Source: Principios para enfrentarse al nuevo orden mundial. Ray Dalio
Practice
Practice
Population pyramid
Population pyramid
Demographic Transition Model
Demographic Transition Model
Exercise
Exercise
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