16L Advisories

Center Track Forecast

INIT 00Z/OCT19 27.9N 87.7W 50KT 60MPH12HR 12Z/OCT19 30.2N 85.6W 55KT 65MPH - Landfall24HR 00Z/OCT20 32.7N 82.7W 40KT 45MPH - Transitioning, inland36HR 12Z/OCT20 35.2N 78.6W 35KT 40MPH - Extratropical, inland48HR 00Z/OCT21 37.1N 73.4W 35KT 40MPH - Extratropical

Advisory 2


1-minute sustained wind: 50 knots; 60 mph; 95 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 995 mbCurrent position: 27.9N 87.7W

Public Advisory

16L, or Nestor, is currently racing through the Gulf of Mexico towards a landfall on the Florida Panhandle in approximately twelve hours. The strongest winds associated with Nestor are expected to reach the coastlines within the next 6 hours, though the storm is not expected to intensify any further as it approaches land and an eventual extratropical transition.

Scientific Discussion

16L has continued to organize and strengthen throughout the previous 24 hours, now attaining partially tropical characteristics, though given the trend in satellite presentation, this will likely not sustain for much longer. The storm is currently under the influence of heavy shear of up to 40 knots, with some partial enhancement from baroclinic forces. The intensity estimate of 50 knots derives from peak SFMRs of 50 knots and flight-level winds of about 61 knots. Given the current synoptic conditions, the flight level winds may be stronger than normal, and as such, the SFMRs are favored more.
Nestor does have somewhat of a frontal boundary, though it also has a fair share of tropical characteristics, particularly an upper level divergence protruding through the trough. It is very likely that the storm is being assisted somewhat by the sea-surface temperatures. Based on this, TCD is designating Nestor as a subtropical storm.
The track forecast is mostly straightforward with a trough providing the primary steering flow. As such, the forecast is very direct and of a high confidence. The intensity forecast suggests some slight strengthening up to landfall, though this will likely be a result of baroclinic forces. The wind shear is expected to effectively void any potential assistance from the fairly warm Gulf waters.
Nestor is expected to have a very lopsided appearance, with its strongest bands expected to come ashore well before the center does. All concerned members should watch this system with vigilance.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Advisory Archive

Below is an archive of previous advisories for 16L.

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Center Track Forecast

No center track forecast has been issued for this advisory.

Partial Advisory 1


1-minute sustained wind: 35 knots; 40 mph; 65 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 1005 mbCurrent position: Unclear

Public Advisory

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is currently churning in the Bay of Campeche within a maze of uncertain synoptic features. Currently, TCD analysis suggests that 1-minute sustained winds are at 35 knots, or 40 miles per hour.
A full advisory is not being issued today due to the synoptic situation, as well as the lack of a clear low-pressure center. Convection is not organized enough to classify this system as a tropical cyclone. Model guidance is suggesting that the center of low pressure, if there is truly any at this time, will likely reform further to the northeast just leeward of a trough.
TCD will issue an advisory tomorrow at 00z, or 8:00 PM EDT, if the center has reformed and the cyclone has subtropical or tropical characteristics.

Forecaster ID

MCK