05L (Dorian) Advisories

Impact Predictions

...Dorian now becoming extratropical...

Center Track Forecast

INIT 00Z/SEP07 37.5N 71.4W 85KT 100MPH - Transitioning12HR 12Z/SEP07 40.2N 68.3W 85KT 100MPH - Transitioning24HR 00Z/SEP08 44.4N 63.6W 75KT 85MPH - Extratropical36HR 12Z/SEP08 48.4N 59.3W 60KT 70MPH - Extratropical48HR 00Z/SEP09 51.7N 51.6W 45KT 50MPH - Extratropical

Track Forecast Confidence: High (85%)

This is the probability that the storm will remain within the forecast cone throughout the forecast period. Our forecast cones are currently tuned so that storms being forecasted will be within the cone 3/4 of the time.

Advisory 10

1-minute sustained wind: 85 knots; 100 mph; 155 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 957 mbCurrent position: 37.5N 71.4W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) is currently moving northeast at 21 knots, or 24 miles per hour, and is now moving away from the US Mainland. Maximum sustained winds are estimated as having reached 85 knots, or 100 miles per hour. Dorian is now undergoing extratropical transition and will impact Nova Scotia and New Brunswick with severe winds, likely hurricane-force as an extratropical cyclone (akin to a rain-based nor’easter).
This is the final TCD advisory of 05L (Dorian).

Scientific Discussion

Dorian now has the classic structure of a tropical cyclone entering extratropical transition. Reconnaissance data from an earlier mission found evidence of 83 knots (based on surface-adjusted winds and SFMR averaged), coinciding with stronger convection; the Miller-Lander Extratropical Transition technique suggests XT4.5/77 knots, with adjustments adding up to a sum of 90 knots. Based on this, the 1-minute maximum sustained wind is set at 85 knots for this advisory. It should be noted that this baroclinic enhancement is being simulated fairly well on models.
At this time, there is not much involving forecasting for Dorian. The general model consensus from global models is just being followed at this time, with more weight being given to the global models rather than the hurricane-specialized models as Dorian is becoming more synoptic-scale. Thus, for both the track and intensity forecast, this consensus is being used.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Advisory Archive

Below is an archive of previous advisories for 05L.

...Dorian on the move, Outer Banks landfall predicted...

Center Track Forecast

INIT 00Z/SEP06 33.5N 77.9W 80KT 90MPH12HR 12Z/SEP06 35.2N 76.2W 75KT 85MPH24HR 00Z/SEP07 37.5N 73.0W 70KT 80MPH - Transitioning36HR 12Z/SEP07 40.3N 68.5W 70KT 80MPH - Extratropical48HR 00Z/SEP08 44.0N 64.0W 65KT 75MPH - Extratropical72HR 00Z/SEP09 50.5N 54.1W 45KT 50MPH - Extratropical

Track Forecast Confidence: Average (75%)

Advisory 9

1-minute sustained wind: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 960 mbCurrent position: 33.5N 77.9W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) is currently moving north-northeast at 9 knots, or 10 miles per hour, and is fairly close to land. Maximum sustained winds based on reconnaissance data is 80 knots, or 90 miles per hour, with a minimum central pressure of 960 millibars. Dorian’s projected path continues to suggest a landfall in the Outer Banks tonight, before moving off-to-sea.
Dorian’s outer bands continue to have the ability to produce tornadoes. If a tornado warning has been issued for your location, take immediate action.

Scientific Discussion

Dorian's structure is now deteriorating gradually, as expected as it is now beginning to encounter baroclinic intervention as it prepares for extratropical transition. The ring of convection's warmest cloud top is now around -52C, and this trend has been continuing for the past 12 hours. However, storms in this phase usually maintain their minimum pressure fairly well compared to other weakening processes despite deteriorating appearances on satellite as extratropical transition enlarges their circulations.. Reconnaissance data details extrapolated minimum pressures of around 957 mb; adjusting them to account for potential low estimates brings the pressure estimate at 960 mb. The wind field has expanded quite significantly since yesterday, and this has been reflected in both a visible expansion in the flight-level wind field as well as the reduction in maximum winds; the peak flight-level wind was 88 knots, and the peak SFMR was 79 knots. Based on this the intensity estimate is 80 knots for this advisory.
There is not much significant change to the track forecast, except to adjust it further west by around 18 nautical miles. The intensity forecast has a few caveats; several models are predicting that the extratropical version of Dorian will deepen until around 48 hours out-- afterwards, Dorian's circulation will weaken extensively. Based on this, the intensity forecast is based off of a deepening rate of 6 mb every 24 hours until forecast hour 48, as suggested by a model consensus, before rapidly filling as it passes Nova Scotia.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...Dorian on the move, Outer Banks landfall predicted...

Center Track Forecast

INIT 00Z/SEP05 30.7N 79.7W 95KT 110MPH12HR 12Z/SEP05 31.9N 79.2W 100KT 115MPH24HR 00Z/SEP06 33.6N 77.6W 95KT 110MPH36HR 12Z/SEP06 35.4N 75.5W 90KT 105MPH48HR 00Z/SEP07 37.2N 73.4W 80KT 90MPH72HR 00Z/SEP08 43.1N 65.0W 70KT 80MPH - Transitioning96HR 00Z/SEP09 51.1N 54.6W 60KT 70MPH - Extratropical

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 8

1-minute sustained wind: 95 knots; 110 mph; 175 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 959 mbCurrent position: 30.7N 79.7W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) is now finally on the move, currently moving northward at approximately 7 knots, or 8 miles per hour, based on reconnaissance data. The most recent reconnaissance data suggests that Dorian currently has winds of 95 knots, or 110 miles per hour, and a minimum pressure of 959 millibars.
Dorian is expected to parallel the coast, gradually getting closer, until a landfall or extremely close pass in the Outer Banks of North Carolina. All interests along the path should monitor Dorian’s progress.

Scientific Discussion

Dorian is now recovering from the effects of upwelling, and is now over waters likely between 26.5 to 29C, as synthesized by the HWRF-Parent. There is now a fairly healthy band of convection, with the band of -70C cloud tops encompassing around 70% of the eye, with the weakest convection measuring at -61C. There is a noticeable inflow jet to the north on microwave, which Dorian seems to be absorbing, and will likely soon fully encircle the eye. The reconnaissance data shows a steady pressure and wind, currently holding at 960 millibars based on dropsonde and adjusted extrapolated data. The wind speed estimate of 95 knots derives from a pass at 2155z in which peak flight-level winds of 110 knots blended with an SFMR of 92 knots; adjusting the FL values accordingly and averaging it generates an average of 95.5 knots. I'm weighing it more towards the SFMR given that it is fairly more reliable, and also accounting for the fact that dropsondes are repeatedly measuring weaker winds at the surface than expected compared to higher levels.
The track forecast guidance seems to have swung back towards the west, now suggesting much closer proximity to the coast, and towards a landfall in the Outer Banks. An upper-level anticyclone to the east, as synthesized by model guidance, is trending slightly stronger. Thus, I am following the westward trend, and projecting a landfall or extremely close pass. The intensity forecast is now more of a guess so as to how much Dorian will benefit from the temporarily favorable upper level divergence, and then when Dorian will undergo the extratropical transition that will weaken the winds and greatly expand the wind field. There is still a window of time for Dorian to strengthen wind-wise; it is quite likely that the pressure will fall, though given the projection that the wind field may expand, the maximum wind may remain constant. However, this expansion likely will not happen until about 36 hours out. For the time being, Dorian is expected to regain 100 knots within the next 12-24 hours, though significant restrengthening is not expected.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...Dorian paralleling Floridian coast...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h24 hours: 95 knots; 110 mph; 175 km/h36 hours: 85 knots; 95 mph; 155 km/h48 hours: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/h72 hours: 75 knots; 85 mph; 140 km/h96 hours: 65 knots; 75 mph; 120 km/h120 hours: 65 knots; 75 mph; 120 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 7

1-minute sustained wind: 95 knots; 110 mph; 175 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 959 mbCurrent position: 28.3N 79.2W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) has resumed its movement, and is beginning to parallel the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 110 mph and a minimum pressure of 959 millibars persist, per reconnaissance data.
Models are still agreeing on a northward-then-eastward path, paralleling the southern Atlantic Seaboard as the models progress. However, a U.S. mainland landfall could still be possible.

Scientific Discussion

[The forecaster has elected to omit the scientific discussion for this advisory.]

Forecaster ID

KURZOV

...Dorian parked over the Bahamas...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 105 knots; 120 mph; 195 km/h24 hours: 95 knots; 110 mph; 175 km/h36 hours: 95 knots; 110 mph; 175 km/h48 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h72 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h96 hours: 85 knots; 100 mph; 155 km/h120 hours: 65 knots; 75 mph; 120 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 6

1-minute sustained wind: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 943 mbCurrent position: 26.9N 78.4W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) is currently stalled just north of Grand Bahama, and is currently weakening based on reconnaissance data, with 1-minute sustained winds currently estimated at 120 knots, or 140 miles per hour, and a minimum pressure now at 943 millibars.
Model guidance seems to be finalizing on a parallel track with the East Coast of the United States. All interests within proximity of this track forecast should closely monitor the storm’s progress, as any deviation to the left could mean a landfall.

Scientific Discussion

Dorian has just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and due to this, has weakened to 120 knots. There is also the possibility that Dorian is now experiencing the effects of ocean upwelling, though this may also be combined with the enlarged size of the circulation culling the maximum wind speeds back a bit. At this time, reconnaissance aircraft has found much lower winds within the circulation, with data from the most recent recon mission suggesting maximum flight-level winds of 117 knots, and highest SFMRs being 91 knots. While this would otherwise suggest winds of 100 knots, there were gaps in the data, particularly through the eye passes. Based on this, I am going to set the intensity at 120 knots for this advisory, which could be generous, though this should not be taken lightly.
The track forecast's reliability mainly depends on when Dorian will break out of the stall-- most models suggest that Dorian will finally speed up after 24 hours, and will then mostly follow the Gulf Stream as it moves poleward with the easterlies before becoming an extratropical cyclone. The intensity forecast then becomes a game of determining the degree of ocean upwelling during the stall, and how well it will recover from these effects as it begins moving faster with the trough before it undergoes extratropical transition (which will greatly enlarge the storm). Based on this, Dorian may weaken further until the end of the stall, and may take another 24 hours after the stalling until the SSTs become enough for it to stabilize or even re-intensify. It should also be noted that there is a noticeable blob of dry air on the west end of the trough- this could impart weakening of Dorian ingests it as it makes its poleward movement.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...Dorian meandering slowly through the Bahamas...

Advisory 5B

1-minute sustained wind: 125 knots; 145 mph; 230 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 941 mbCurrent position: 26.8N 78.4W

Scientific Discussion

The purpose of this update is to discuss newer reconnaissance data, and to update the position and intensity estimate of Hurricane Dorian. An eyewall replacement cycle has taken place overnight, thus weakening the storm. A NW to SE eyewall pass recorded peak SFMRs of 120 kt, while peak flight-level winds were at 129 kt. The surface-adjusted FL wind suggests 115 kt. The NE eyewall could potentially be stronger than suggested by this pass, thus I am setting the intensity estimate at 125 kt. Note that the tropical storm-force wind field has expanded to a radius of 110 nm, or 125 miles.
Infrared imagery has suggested that movement has slowed to northwest at 2 kt, or 2 miles per hour.
Remember that this intensity estimate does not reflect NHC's analysis. Please do not cite this as an official source, even if estimates match.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Center Track Forecast (Adjusted)

12 hours: 145 knots; 165 mph; 270 km/h24 hours: 140 knots; 160 mph; 260 km/h36 hours: 130 knots; 150 mph; 240 km/h48 hours: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/h72 hours: 110 knots; 125 mph; 205 km/h96 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h120 hours: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/h

Advisory 5A

1-minute sustained wind: 155 knots; 180 mph; 285 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 914 mbCurrent position: 26.6N 77.8W

Scientific Discussion

The purpose of this update is to discuss newer reconnaissance data. A new pass through the eye was registered at 0045z, with SFMRs as high as 154 knots, with flight-level winds being as high as 150 knots. Averaging these two values out after adjusting to the surface reveals a 145 knot estimate. While I would otherwise downgrade directly to 145 knots, there could be missing data, and the proximity to land may be affecting the reconnaissance data. Thus, the new TCD estimate for 02z is 155 knots, or 180 miles per hour. The CTF on the original post (above) is adjusted accordingly.
Infrared satellite imagery as well as the recon data suggests that Dorian may be moving slightly south of west, though there has been wobbling throughout the past 12 hours. Thus, I am going to hold the movement direction for now as just 270deg, with the forward movement at 5 knots, or 6 miles per hour.
Remember that this intensity estimate does not reflect NHC's analysis. As aforementioned, please do not cite this as an official source, even if estimates match.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 150 knots; 175 mph; 280 km/h24 hours: 145 knots; 165 mph; 270 km/h36 hours: 130 knots; 150 mph; 240 km/h48 hours: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/h72 hours: 110 knots; 125 mph; 205 km/h96 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h120 hours: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 5

1-minute sustained wind: 160 knots; 185 mph; 295 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 915 mbCurrent position: 26.6N 77.6W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) is currently slowing down over the Bahamas while maintaining extreme winds of 160 knots, or 185 miles per hour. The central pressure of Dorian has risen to 915 millibars, based on a recent reconnaissance dropsonde.
Model guidance continues to suggest that Dorian will get uncomfortably close to the East Coast of the United States. All interests within proximity of Dorian should closely monitor the progress of the storm.

Scientific Discussion

Dorian's evolution throughout the past 24 hours is frightening and spectacular. Although it made landfall, Dorian's ring of cloud tops continues to somewhat cool down, now maintaining -78C to -79C. There is a saving grace in the form of an evident eyewall replacement cycle on radar, which may serve to weaken the storm, if it already isn't beginning to weaken already-- a dropsonde recorded a 5mb pressure jump in the last 3 hours, and the NW to SE eyewall passes have revealed slightly weaker winds, at 145 knots in these quadrants. Generally speaking, with these wind readings relative to previous readings, this would support 155 knots, but just to be safe, I'm going to keep the estimate at 160 knots for this advisory.
There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning compared to yesterday, so I'm just only going to talk about the intensity forecast. There is currently an eyewall replacement cycle, which should serve to weaken the storm by around 10 to 25 knots- given the size of this new eye, the reduction may be around 15 knots. Eventually, Dorian will stall over the Gulf Stream, with fairly moderate OHCs of 50-75. If Dorian sits here for 36 hours as predicted, it may run down the OHCs and Dorian is expected to begin weakening from upwelling after around 24-30 hours of stalling. Afterwards, Dorian will recurve poleward, mostly following the Gulf Stream until a potential landfall in the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This new fast movement, combined with its position leeward of a trough, should give it a boost in intensity before wind shear from this interaction is expected to begin transitioning the storm. Do note that any translation to the west may result in a landfall much sooner than predicted, and any translation to the east may result in significantly less effects. Currently, the HWRF predicts a landfall in Cape Canaveral, and given how well HWRF has been initializing with Dorian, this may be the most likely alternate outcome.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...05L keeps intensifying, East Coast landfall still likely...

Advisory 4B

1-minute sustained wind: 160 knots; 185 mph; 295 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 910 mbCurrent position: 26.6N 77.1W

Scientific Discussion

Dorian has made landfall in the Bahamas in Great Abaco with winds of 160 knots and a minimum central pressure of 911 millibars, as shown by reconnaissance data. Flight-level winds right before landfall peaked at 161 knots, and the highest SFMR reading was 177 knots. Blending these two values (after adjusting FL to surface) returns an average of 160 knots. More recent passes suggest that Dorian may have weakened at this time, though only the two western quadrants were sampled (still with the highest unflagged SFMR being 166 knots).
Dorian’s movement is currently a solid westward movement, with some wobbles either to the southwest or the northwest. Dorian is expected to move close to Florida, where it is expected to slow down significantly before moving poleward. The next full TCD advisory will be posted at 00z, or 8PM EST.
Remember that this intensity estimate does not reflect NHC's analysis. As aforementioned, please do not cite this as an official source, even if estimates match.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 140 knots; 160 mph; 260 km/h24 hours: 130 knots; 150 mph; 240 km/h36 hours: 125 knots; 145 mph; 230 km/h48 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h72 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h96 hours: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/h120 hours: 75 knots; 85 mph; 140 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 4A

1-minute sustained wind: 140 knots; 160 mph; 260 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 940 mbCurrent position: 26.2N 74.9W

Scientific Discussion

Recent reconnaissance has sampled the northwestern eyewall of Hurricane Dorian, which has been determined to possibly be the most vigorous quadrant of the circulation. Flight-level winds were 151 knots, and the SFMR had 153 knots. While the SFMR may be questionable at this velocity, the flight-level winds suggest potential 135-140 knot winds. Based on a practice set by NHC in the 14L (Irma) report, based on a balance between surface-adjusted flight-level winds (135.9 kt) and the SFMR, an average of 144 kt is attained. I am setting the TCD wind estimate at 140 knots for now in response to this new data, though this estimate could be a little conservative. The CTF is adjusted accordingly.
Remember that this intensity estimate does not reflect NHC's analysis, which arrives at 03z. As aforementioned, please do not cite this as an official source.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 135 knots; 155 mph; 250 km/h24 hours: 130 knots; 150 mph; 240 km/h36 hours: 125 knots; 145 mph; 230 km/h48 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h72 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h96 hours: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/h120 hours: 75 knots; 85 mph; 140 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 4

1-minute sustained wind: 135 knots; 155 mph; 250 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 941 mbCurrent position: 26.2N 74.6W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) has continued to strengthen, currently moving WNW at 7 knots, or 8 miles per hour. Reconnaissance data suggests that the storm has winds of 135 knots, or 155 miles per hour. It should be noted that this is rounded from 136.3 knot estimate based on a combination of SFMR and flight-level-based surface winds.
New model guidance now suggests that Dorian has a much-increased chance of landfall, with the main risk area returning southward and westward. All residents within this area should monitor Dorian’s progress as it approaches.

Scientific Discussion

Dorian's evolution in the past 24 hours is quite frightening, with cloud tops gradually becoming cooler, with an intermittent ring of -80C having appeared since 19z (5 hours ago), and is currently attempting to become more constant. The eye temperature is currently estimated at 15C. Recent reconnaissance runs have shown maximum flight-level winds of 144 knots, with the highest unflagged SFMR being 143 knots, though this has been surrounded by flagged values. Regardless, I am not going to fully discard this reading, and taking a general average, I will set the advisory intensity at 135 knots.
Do note that missions are ongoing, and an intermediate advisory will be posted if it is determined that Dorian has an intensity higher than suggested here.
The track forecast cautiously maintains the same logic as yesterday. While there has been a general trend towards the east, favoring a recurve after a stall over the Bahamas, more recent dropsonde data near the subtropical ridge have found that this ridge is stronger than previously forecast. This now brings the path forecast back westward, more towards where they were yesterday, and slightly further west. Currently the track forecast still calls for Dorian to stay offshore, though do note that any changes in the steering regime as well as in the hurricane's structure can change this path. The intensity forecast remains within the bounds of the intensity guidance, though there may be reason to break upwards and higher; SSTs are expected to increase to 30C, and there is little indication that shear will reach levels sufficient to weaken the storm. Regardless, Dorian's slow movement between forecast hours 36 and 72 are expected to send it on a weakening trend due to upwelling. Note that the upwelling forecast may be exaggerated, as this is expected to occur over the Gulf Stream.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...05L a Category 4...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/h24 hours: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/h36 hours: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/h48 hours: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/h72 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h96 hours: 100 knots; 115 mph; 185 km/h120 hours: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 3

1-minute sustained wind: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 950 mbCurrent position: 25.3N 71.0W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) currently has winds of 115 knots, or 130 miles per hour, with a measured minimum pressure of 950 millibars, and is moving NW at a forward speed of 9 knots, or 10 miles per hour. Dorian poses a significant threat to areas of the east coast ranging from possibly Miami to as far north as South Carolina.

Scientific Discussion

No scientific discussion has been provided for this advisory.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...05L now with 100 mph winds...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 95 knots; 110 mph; 150 km/h24 hours: 105 knots; 120 mph; 195 km/h36 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h48 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h72 hours: 120 knots; 140 mph; 220 km/h96 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h120 hours: 65 knots; 75 mph; 120 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Low (65%)

Advisory 2

1-minute sustained wind: 85 knots; 100 mph; 155 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 977 mbCurrent position: 22.8N 68.0W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) currently has winds of 85 knots, or 100 miles per hour, with a measured minimum pressure of 977 millibars, and is moving NW at a forward speed of 11 knots, or 13 miles per hour. Dorian poses a significant threat to areas of the east coast ranging from as south as Miami to as far north as Jacksonville, Florida.

Scientific Discussion

Dorian is in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle, with data from reconnaissance reporting concentric eyewalls indicated by some subtle double wind maxima. SFMR readings from an earlier pass reached 83 knots, with flight-level winds of 87 knots. Despite low flight-level winds, I am raising Dorian to 85 knots as the northeast eyewall is perhaps the most violent section of the storm; it has not been sampled yet. A recent dropsonde measured 979 mb with winds of 16 knots, based on this the minimum pressure is 977 mb.
The track forecast has slowed compared to the previous forecast. There is practically little change in the next 48 hours, though the steering currents are now expected to be weaker beyond this point, bringing Dorian into Florida just after 96 hours, and with it potentially stalling. It should be noted that there are a wide range of model solutions, with GFS recurving Dorian, while the ECMWF and UKMET solutions keep Dorian on a more southern path. The intensity forecast stays within the model guidance, though HWRF and HMON now suggest a peak of 135 knots. The general consensus currently has a peak of 120 knots. Currently, the HWRF and HMON solutions are something to consider, but I am not going to follow them explicitly, and I will stay within the model guidance, with the IVCN guidance.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...05L strengthening...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 80 knots; 90 mph; 150 km/h24 hours: 85 knots; 100 mph; 155 km/h36 hours: 95 knots; 110 mph; 175 km/h48 hours: 105 knots; 120 mph; 195 km/h72 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h96 hours: 115 knots; 130 mph; 215 km/h120 hours: 90 knots; 105 mph; 165 km/h

Track Forecast Confidence: Average (75%)

Advisory 1

1-minute sustained wind: 70 knots; 80 mph; 130 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 990 mbCurrent position: 19.2N 65.6W

Public Advisory

05L (Dorian) currently has winds of 70 knots, or 80 miles per hour, with a measured minimum pressure of 990 millibars, and is moving NW at a forward speed of 12 knots, or 14 miles per hour. Dorian poses a fairly significant threat to areas of the east coast ranging from as south as Miami to as far north as Jacksonville, Florida.

Scientific Discussion

Dorian has continued to intensify as it passes Puerto Rico to the northeast. A small nascent eye has appeared on IR satellite imagery, with a particularly pronounced eye appearing on radar from San Juan. Reconnaissance data found SFMRs of 72 knots and flight-level winds of 75 knots. The estimated surface winds from the flight-level measurements are 67.5 knots: based on this average, I am setting the intensity at 70 knots for this advisory. A dropsonde recorded 992 millibars with 20 knot winds in the eye: given the small size of the eye, a minimum pressure of 990 millibars is estimated. Convection is expected to intensify further as diurnal maximum approaches, as well as increasing SSTs approaching 30C.
The track forecast mainly follows the general consensus of the models: a strong subtropical ridge is expected to take shape to the north, bringing the storm on a direct westward track towards the Florida Peninsula. With this in mind, the forecast mainly follows the consensus model guidance. The intensity forecast is fairly amplified in comparison to the general 12z/18z consensus, however. Current model trends from 18z model runs are upwards, with the HWRF predicting a peak of 142 knots. In response to this, I am amplifying the intensity forecast by about 15 knots above the general consensus from the 12z/18z model guidance.

Forecaster ID

MCK