14L Advisories

...Melissa gradually moving away from the United States...

Center Track Forecast

INIT 00Z/OCT12 37.8N 69.0W 50KT 60MPH12HR 12Z/OCT12 38.1N 67.9W 40KT 45MPH24HR 00Z/OCT13 38.5N 65.3W 35KT 40MPH36HR 12Z/OCT13 39.2N 61.9W 35KT 40MPH - Post-tropical48HR 00Z/OCT14 40.1N 57.7W 30KT 35MPH - Post-tropical

Advisory 1


1-minute sustained wind: 50 knots; 60 mph; 95 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 998 mbCurrent position: 37.8N 69.0W

Public Advisory

14L, or Melissa, is currently moving west-southwest at a slow rate of 4 knots, or 5 miles per hour, and is currently gradually weakening with winds estimated at 50 knots or 60 miles per hour at this time. The radius of storm-force winds is gradually closing, with any current effects on the United States expected to become much-lessened by tomorrow morning.
Due to this, this will likely be the only TCD advisory issued on 14L (Melissa).

Scientific Discussion

Melissa is now taking on a much more subtropical appearance, with it now reducing to a swirl of clouds with some convective activity on the northern end. Given that it is no longer primarily enforced by baroclinic processes, 14L is expected to begin weakening. The intensity estimate of 50 knots is based on a report of 46 knot winds about 160 nautical miles west of the cyclone's center.
An encroaching trough to the west will begin pushing Melissa to the east-northeast. Due to the weakening processes, Melissa is expected to become a remnant low within 36 hours. Baroclinic processes are not expected to reinforce the cyclone significantly enough to be of any note in this forecast.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Advisory Archive

Below is an archive of previous advisories for 14L.