06E Advisories

...06E strengthens into a tropical storm...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 40 knots; 45 mph; 75 km/h24 hours: 45 knots; 50 mph; 85 km/h36 hours: 50 knots; 60 mph; 85 km/h48 hours: 55 knots; 65 mph; 100 km/h72 hours: 60 knots; 70 mph; 110 km/h96 hours: 50 knots; 60 mph; 95 km/h120 hours: 40 knots; 45 mph 75 km/h

Advisory 1


1-minute sustained wind: 35 knots; 40 mph; 65 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 1007 mbCurrent position: 11.6N 126.2W

Public Advisory

06E (Erick) currently has winds of 35 knots, or 40 miles per hour, an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 millibars, and is moving west at a forward speed of 14 knots, or 16 miles per hour. Erick has a chance of impacting Hawaii as a weak tropical cyclone or a post-tropical low.

Scientific Discussion

Erick has organized just a little bit, though not much. An ASCAT pass from 17z reveals 1-minute sustained peak winds of 35 knots, and there has been little change in the storm's organization since the ASCAT pass, aside from the appearance of a broken banding feature. This is above the subjective Dvorak estimate of T2.0/30 knots. The ADT has assessed gradually rising T-numbers since 17z, now at a 6-hour average of 3.0 or 45 knots. However, I will not give much weight to the ADT at this time as it is likely assessing the wrong scene type (assessing CDO instead of spiral band).
The track forecast is very straightforward, with all models mostly clustered very tightly all the way through the forecast period. Thus, the intensity forecast is fairly straightforward as well. SSTs remain fairly modest throughout the entire forecast period, starting at 28C and decreasing to 27C by the start of August. Shear is expected to rise above 15 knots by August 1. For now, I will start this forecast quite conservatively, with a predicted peak intensity of 60 knots for this advisory.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Advisory Archive

Below is an archive of previous advisories for 02E.