02L Advisories

...Barry makes landfall...

Center Track Forecast

No CTF will be issued for this special advisory.

Advisory 4L


1-minute sustained wind: 60 knots; 70 mph; 110 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 995 mbCurrent position: 29.9N 92.2W

Public Advisory

Barry has made landfall with 1-minute sustained winds of 60 knots, or 70 miles per hour, near the State Wildlife Refuge approximately one hour ago. The more dangerous and rainy southern half of Barry continues to trail behind the low-level circulation of the tropical cyclone, which is expected to produce heavy rainfall as Barry slowly moves inland.

Forecaster ID

MCK

Advisory Archive

Below is an archive of previous advisories for 02L..

...Barry strengthens further than forecast...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 65 knots; 75 mph; 120 km/h (On the coast)24 hours: 50 knots; 60 mph; 95 km/h (Inland)36 hours: 35 knots; 40 mph; 65 km/h (Inland)48 hours: 25 knots; 30 mph; 45 km/h (Inland)72 hours: 20 knots; 25 mph; 35 km/h (Inland, Post-tropical cyclone)96 hours: 20 knots; 25 mph; 35 km/h (Inland, Dissipating)

Advisory 3


1-minute sustained wind: 60 knots; 70 mph; 110 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 992 mbCurrent position: 28.0N 89.6W

Public Advisory

02L (Barry) is now making the approach to landfall, currently transitioning to a northwest movement with a forward speed of 5 knots, or 6 miles per hour. Reconnaissance data suggests that Barry has winds of 60 knots, or 70 miles per hour, with a minimum estimated pressure, based on data extrapolation, of 992 millibars.
Barry is expected to make landfall within the next 24 hours, potentially at hurricane strength. The most significant concerns from this storm is that of flooding, as it is expected to be a slow-moving storm; accumulations up to 24 inches are possible as a result of Barry's passage through Louisiana, with rainfall accumulations ranging from 4 to 12 inches possible near the Louisiana/Mississippi border.

Scientific Discussion

Barry's satellite presentation has not changed much, with dry air still intruding into its northern semicircle while strong convection remains in the southern semicircle, and is now beginning to gradually wrap towards the eastern half of the system. Reconnaissance missions flying through the tropical cyclone revealed flight-level winds of up to 72 knots, with maximum unflagged SFMRs of 65 knots at around 19z. A more recent mission has released data from 23:17z, with flight level winds of 66 knots and SFMR readings of 61 knots. An anemometer atop an oil rig (elevation 90 meters) east of the circulation was recording 1-minute sustained winds of 66 knots earlier in the day but is now recording winds of around 62 knots. Based on this data, Barry's 1-minute sustained wind is set at 60 knots for this advisory, with a pressure of 992 millibars based on extrapolation of dropsonde data correlated with the wind speed increase.
The forecast logic is somewhat like yesterday's, though it now trends slightly faster and with a slight northward amplification after forecast hour 36. Most models have trended towards the west a little, with a more directly northward track from forecast hours 48 to 96 through a break in the ridge prior to a recurvature into the westerlies. For this forecast I am going to follow the TVCN consensus model. The intensity forecast is mostly a prediction of tropical cyclone decay after forecast hour 12, in which Barry is forecast to attain minimal hurricane strength of 65 knots.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...Barry strengthening, turning northward...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 40 knots; 45 mph; 75 km/h24 hours: 50 knots; 60 mph; 95 km/h36 hours: 60 knots; 70 mph; 110 km/h48 hours: 45 knots; 50 mph; 85 km/h72 hours: 30 knots; 35 mph; 55 km/h96 hours: 15 knots; 15 mph; 30 km/h120 hours: Dissipated

Advisory 2


1-minute sustained wind: 35 knots; 40 mph; 65 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 1004 mbCurrent position: 28.0N 89.6W

Public Advisory

02L, now classified as Barry, has strengthened to 40 miles per hour and is slowly making a northward turn. Barry is currently moving west-northwest at around 6 miles per hour.

Scientific Discussion

Barry is still rather disorganized and unreceptive for heavy intensification. Most models no longer show Barry as becoming a hurricane, the sole exception being the UK Met Office model. Most models are also in agreeance that Barry will landfall somewhere in Louisiana about two days from now. Where in Louisiana, however, is still uncertain.

Forecaster ID

KURZOV

...02L's structure improving...

Center Track Forecast

12 hours: 30 knots; 35 mph; 55 km/h24 hours: 40 knots; 45 mph; 75 km/h36 hours: 55 knots; 65 mph; 100 km/h48 hours: 65 knots; 75 mph; 120 km/h72 hours: 40 knots; 45 mph; 75 km/h96 hours: 25 knots; 30 mph; 45 km/h120 hours: 15 knots; 15 mph; 30 km/h

Advisory 1


1-minute sustained wind: 20 knots; 25 mph; 35 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 1010 mbCurrent position: 27.7N 87.9W

Public Advisory

02L continues to organize, now with winds of 25 miles per hour, as it moves to the west-southwest at around 9 miles per hour. This system is expected to make a turn to the north within 48 to 72 hours, impacting the Gulf Coast shortly thereafter.

Scientific Discussion

No scientific discussion has been written for this advisory.

Forecaster ID

Analysis: KURZOVForecast: MCK

...92L begins to consolidate...

Generation Chances

24 hours: 70%48 hours: 90%72 hours: >90%

Advisory P-2


1-minute sustained wind: 15 knots; 15 mph; 30 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 1011 mbCurrent position: Unclear position/Unformed

Public Advisory

Invest 92L is currently meandering in a general southward direction over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, with winds of 15 knots, or around 15 miles per hour. TCD analysis suggests that 92L will very likely transform into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and may complete cyclogenesis within the next 24 hours.
The next outlook will be issued tomorrow at 00z, or 5:00 PM MST. If it is deemed that 92L has sufficiently developed and poses a clear threat to the Gulf Coast, advisories will begin on 92L or its resulting tropical cyclone in place of an outlook.

Scientific Discussion

92L is now forming potential curvebands along a very elongated circulation with a particularly pronounced mid-level circulation centered around 130 nautical miles from the nearest coastline, but has barely any clear movement. Given this, it is very likely that 92L will complete cyclogenesis within the next 24 hours, and is practically certain that cyclogenesis will be completed within the next 48 hours. The risk areas will remain the same as yesterday, given that there still remains uncertainty with the track forecast, though at this time the most likely landfall point will be between Baton Rouge and Beaumont, TX.

Forecaster ID

MCK

...92L beginning to materialize...

Generation Chances

24 hours: <10%48 hours: 30%72 hours: 90%

Advisory P-1


1-minute sustained wind: 5 knots; 5 mph; 10 km/hEstimated minimum pressure: 1011 mbCurrent position: Unclear position/Unformed

Public Advisory

Invest 92L is currently moving southward over Georgia as a low-level circulation with very light winds. TCD analysis suggests that 92L will transform into a tropical cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico within the next 72 hours, but is not expected to complete cyclogenesis in the next 48 hours.
The next outlook will be issued tomorrow at 00z, or 5:00 PM MST. If it is deemed that 92L has sufficiently developed and poses a clear threat to the Gulf Coast, advisories will begin on 92L or its resulting tropical cyclone in place of an outlook.

Scientific Discussion

The system that comprises 92L is currently stemming from a disorganized low-level circulation over Georgia, with an elongated mid-level circulation to its west near the Florida/Georgia/Alabama border. The low-level circulation over Georgia is now beginning to contribute to disorganized thunderstorm activity across a linear swath of the Southeast.
The generation of 92L into a tropical cyclone is now being considered to likely be certain, however the extent of generation and development is fairly complicated, and compounded by a lack of agreement in model runs. The ECMWF suggests that the system will move southward at a slightly brisker pace, with the mid-level circulation and low-level circulation mostly moving in tandem, while the GFS has slower low-level steering currents. A track like the ECMWF's would suggest a stronger system, while a track like the GFS would suggests a much more short-lived system that would make landfall as a weak system without having much time to develop. Hopefully more model clarity will arrive tomorrow.

Forecaster ID

MCK