EUFIRST

Globalization, Inequality and Populism Across Europe

Project Summary

The EUFIRST project has advanced our understanding of the rise of (right-wing) populism in Europe. This research, funded by the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) (EUFIRST, n.13956644) and the Belgian Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS), has produced key findings across four areas:
1. A New Framework for Analyzing Populism Trends

Developed a novel method to measure left-wing and right-wing populism
Found that right-wing populism has reached unprecedented levels across the EU

2. Drivers of Populism

Identified globalization's skill content—not just its size—as a key determinant of populist support
Showed that low-skilled immigration fuels right-wing populism, while high-skilled immigration helps mitigate it

3. Consequences of Populism

Demonstrated that populism undermines governance and economic performance at both local and national levels
Highlighted how right-wing populism discourages high-skilled immigration and exacerbates voter brain drain

4. Vicious Cycle and Geopolitical Impact

Uncovered a self-reinforcing cycle of xenophobia driven by the interplay between populism and immigrant skill composition
Illustrated how populist-driven disengagement reshapes the geopolitical order, increasing global inequality and the risk of conflict

These findings provide critical insights into the persistence of populist movements in the EU and address urgent societal and policy challenges.

Team Members

Coordinators

Frédéric DOCQUIER (LISER)
Eugenio PELUSO (LISER & UniLu)

EUFIRST has also established a strong international research network based in Luxembourg, solidifying its position as a leader in the study of populism and migration.

Francesco ANDREOLLI (U.Verona & LISER)
Etienne BACHER (LISER)
Luca BELLODI (Stanford U.)
Stefano IANDOLO (U.Salerno)
Dorothée HILLRICHS (ifo Institute)
Adam LEVAI (LISER)
Massimo MORELLI (U.Bocconi & LISER)
Elie MURARD (U.Trento)
Hillel RAPOPORT (PSE & LISER)
Michel TENIKUE (LISER)
Riccardo TURATI (U.A.Barcelona)
Gonzague VANOORENBERGHE (UCLouvain)
Chrysovalantis VASILAKIS (U.Bangor)

Research Outputs — Academic Papers

Measurement and Trends in Populism

Docquier, Frédéric & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (2024). Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years. CESifo Working Paper Series 10068 (2023) or CEPR Discussion Paper 18822, under review (R&R).

Determinants of Populism

Andreoli, Francesco & Alessio Fusco & Eugenio Peluso (2024). Closed communities and spatial separation. Manuscript available soon as a Discussion Paper.
Barsbai, Toman & Hillel Rapoport (2024). Exit and Voice: Germany, 1848–1933. Manuscript available soon as a Discussion Paper.
Docquier, Frédéric & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (2024). Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years. CESifo Working Paper Series 10068 (2023) or CEPR Discussion Paper 18822, under review (R&R).
Docquier, Frédéric & Adam Levai & Elie Murard & Eugenio Peluso & Hillel Rapoport (2024). Local Exposure to Immigration and Populist Votes: Evidence from Polling Districts in the City of Milan. Manuscript available soon as a Discussion Paper.

Economic Consequences of Populism

Bacher, Etienne (2024). Populist leaders and international migration. Manuscript available soon as a Discussion Paper.
Bacher, Etienne & Michel Beine & Hillel Rapoport (2024). Estimating the impact of xenophobia on immigration: evidence from terrorist attacks. Manuscript available soon as a Discussion Paper.
Bellodi, Luca & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni (2023). A Costly Commitment: Populism, Economic Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy. American Journal of Political Science 68(1): 193-209.
Levai, Adam & Ricardo Turati (2024). The Impact of Immigration on Workers’ Protection. LISER Working Paper 2022-10, under review (R&R).
Moriconi, Simone & Giovanni Peri & Riccardo Turati (2023). Are immigrants more left leaning than natives? NBER WP No. 30523, conditionally accepted in the Journal of Urban Economics.

Impact of Populism on Migration and Vicious Cycle

Bellodi, Luca & Frédéric Docquier & Stéfano Iandolo & Massimo Morelli & Riccardo Turati (2024). Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility & the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities. IZA Discussion Paper 16732, CEPR Discussion Paper 18778, LISER Discussion Paper 2024-01. Under Review.
Docquier, Frédéric & Hillel Rapoport (2025). The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia: Immigration and Right-Wing Populism. IZA Discussion Paper, LISER Working Paper. Economic Policy, forthcoming
Docquier, Frédéric & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis (2024). Migrants' Self-Selection and the Vicious Circle of Right-Wing Populism. IZA Discussion Paper 17402, LISER Working Paper 2024-10. Under Review.

Research Outputs — Policy Briefs

Measurement of Populism, Trends and Determinants

Docquier, Frédéric & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (2024). Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization. VOX EU Columns, 12 March 2024.

Guriev, Sergei (2020). Immigration and Populism. LISER Policy Brief 2020-10.

Consequences of Populism and Vicious Cycle

Docquier, Frédéric & Massimo Morelli & Eugenio Peluso (2022). Democracies in Danger: How Can We Break the Vicious Circle of Populism? LISER Policy Brief 2022-05.
Docquier, Frédéric & Hillel Rapoport (2024). Immigration and Populism: the Vicious Cycle of Xenophobia. Policy Brief, Paris School of Economics; LISER Policy Brief 2025-05.
Docquier, Frédéric & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis (2024). The vicious cycle of populism and migration: How far-right ideologies undermine human capital. IZA WoL Opinions.
Funcke, Manuel & Moritz Schularik & Christoph Trebesch (2024). The Growth Impact of Populism. LISER Policy Brief, 2024-09.
Morelli, Massimo & Eugenio Peluso (2024). The Populist Geopolitical Order. LISER Policy Brief 2025-03.

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Beine, Michel & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado & Bierte Nienaber & Adolfo Sommarribas (2022). Ukrainian Refugee Crisis Tests Luxembourg’s Humanitarian and Integration Policy. Research Luxembourg - Policy Brief (May 2022).
Guichard, Lucas & Joël Machado & Jean-François Maystadt (2022). The Ukrainian Exodus Calls for Better Coordination in the European Asylum Policy. LISER Policy Brief 2022-04.

EUFIRST Events

EUFIRST Workshop on “Migration and Politics: Current and Future Challenges”

13-14 October 2023 (in Caglio, near Lake Como)

LISER, in collaboration with leading researchers from the Bocconi University and Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Milan, organized a workshop on “Migration and Politics: Current and Future Challenges,” serving as a component of the EUFIRST project.

Scientific committee: Massimo Bordignon, Frédéric Docquier, Massimo Morelli, Eugenio Peluso, and Hillel Rapoport. The workshop took place in the Town Hall of the charming village of Caglio (Lombardy, Italy).

20th IMISCOE Annual Conference

3-6 July 2023 (in Warsaw)

Frederic Docquier will deliver a keynote lecture titled "Democracies in Danger: Selective Migration and the Vicious Circle of Populism" during the 20th IMISCOE Annual Conference. This significant event, focusing on "Migration and Inequalities: In search of answers and solutions," will feature the presentation as part of the Opening Plenary, themed "Inequalities as one of the key challenges for the 21st century."

Moreover, a comprehensive presentation on the same topic served as a keynote lecture during the Junior Workshop on Economics of Migration. The workshop, held in Paris on June 15-16, 2023, was a collaborative effort by renowned institutions such as CERDI, PSE, LISER, the University of Luxembourg, Universidad Carlos III, CEPII, and the IC Migrations.

Political Economy of Open Borders: Theory and Evidence on the Role of Electoral Rules

Special Seminar: and Roundatble Discussion
21 March 2023 at LISER

As part of the EUFIRST project, the Living Conditions Dpt. and Crossing Borders Prog. at LISER organized a special seminar with Massimo Morelli on the “The Political Economy of Open Borders Theory and Evidence on the role of Electoral Rules” .

Abstract: Institutions matter for the political choice of policies. We study, theoretically and empirically, how different electoral systems affect the immigration policy of a country or city. We show that electoral systems where parties need the absolute majority of the votes to gain control of the decision-making power are weakly more open to immigration than those where a plurality of the votes is sufficient. There is evidence for this result at all levels in terms of correlations, and we establish causality via RDD for the Italian case. (joint work with M. Gamalerio,and M. Negri)

EEA-ESEM Congress 2022 - Session on Globalization and Populism

22-26 August 2022 at Bocconi University

The EUFIRST team organized a contributed session on "Globalization and Populism" at the EEA-ESEM Congress 2022. The session was organized and chaired by our team member, Prof. Riccardo Turati (UAB). It included four presentations, two of which are part of our research outcomes:

R. Turati (Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona) : Globalization and Populism: The Last Sixty Years
C. Aksoy (EBRD and King's College London) : Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide
M. Funke (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) : Populist leaders and the economy
M. Morelli (Bocconi University) : A Costly Commitment: Populism, Government Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy

Roundtable: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Refugee Crisis

24 March 2022 at the Chamber of Commerce (Kirchberg)

The conflict in Ukraine has resulted in a significant influx of Ukrainian refugees in EU countries. While there has been a notable display of solidarity, this large-scale flow poses significant challenges in terms of reception and integration. To better frame these challenges, LISER organized a roundtable discussion that brought together scholars, field experts, and policymakers. The objective of this roundtable was to raise awareness and enhance understanding of the implications this situation has for both EU countries and Luxembourg.

18h00-18h20: Context. Prof. Massimo Morelli (Bocconi U.)
18h20-18h40: Global and European perspectives. Dr. Caglar Ozden (World Bank); Dr. Joël Machado (LISER); Prof. Hillel Rapoport (PSE and LISER)
18h40 -19h10: Luxembourg perspective. Mr. Minister Jean Asselborn (Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Minister of Immigration and Asylum); Mr. Sergio Ferreira (ASTI); Mr. Charles Margues (Chamber of Deputies)

EUFIRST Workshop on Globalization, Attitudes and Populism

23-24 March 2022 at LISER

The workshop dealt with the causes and consequences of populism and sanction votes, their links with perceptions of inequality and cultural threats, trade and immigration shocks.

Keynote speakers: Massimo Morelli (Bocconi University), Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics)
Speakers: Gloria Gennaro (ETH Zurich), Dorothée Hillrichs (UCLouvain), Riccardo Turati (Universitat Autnoma Barcelona), Francesco Andreoli (University of Verona), Silvia Peracchi (University of Luxembourg), Etienne Bacher (LISER), Nicola Daniele Coniglio (University of Bari Aldo Moro), Massimo Bordignon (Catholic University of Milan)
Conference organizers: Axelle Depireux, Frédéric Docquier, Lucas Guichard, Eugenio Peluso

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