Policy briefs

Crossing Borders at a Glance...

Sascha O. Becker

Monash University, Australia

Refugees are not just another group of immigrants

Refugees differ from other immigrant groups in that they have rarely had the opportunity to plan and prepare for their departure. History teaches us that this uprooting often prompts refugees to acquire new professional skills to adapt to their new environment or to strengthen their educational aspirations for their children, as education is a mobile asset tied to individuals. This policy brief documents the exodus of over two million Polish migrants forced to leave the Kresy, a border region in eastern Poland annexed by the former Soviet Union after World War II. These refugees were mostly resettled in the western territories reclaimed from Germany. The analysis shows that the descendants of this forced migration now have significantly higher levels of education than all other comparable groups. Forced migration has led to a shift in preferences toward education and training, a lower valuation of material goods, and a rebalancing of what they consider most important in life, namely freedom and human capital. These effects are not automatic. Educational aspirations are doomed to failure if access to education is delayed, unaffordable, or simply impossible.

Dominik Hangartner

ETH Zurich and Immigration Policy Lab, Switzerland

Immigrants who naturalize outearn their peers

Naturalization policies are shaped by two contrasting perspectives. The first contends that naturalization should be viewed as the culmination of successful integration, serving as a reward for immigrants' efforts. Conversely, an alternative viewpoint posits that citizenship functions as a catalyst for integration. Demonstrating the positive impact of citizenship on integration is challenging due to differing skills and integration desires among immigrants who attain naturalization and those who do not. Swiss data facilitates a more thorough analysis and causal identification. From 1970 to 2003, numerous Swiss cities subjected naturalization applications to popular votes, requiring candidates to secure over 50% of favorable votes for Swiss citizenship. Consequently, candidates who narrowly won or lost can be considered initially similar before being subject to discrimination through the popular vote. Comparing these initially similar groups reveals that post-vote, naturalized immigrants experience sustained and accelerated salary growth compared to their less fortunate counterparts. The most pronounced effects are observed among low-skilled immigrants or those likely to face discrimination based on their origin or religiosity. These findings emphasize the crucial role that naturalization policy can play in promoting more equitable access to employment opportunities for immigrants.

Paola Giuliano

UCLA Anderson School of Management, USA

Diversity in Schools: Impact on Academic Achievement of U.S. Native Students

Foreign-born students constitute a substantial segment of the student population in many nations, prompting inquiries into how immigration impacts the academic achievements of native students. This policy brief sheds light on the influence of exposure to diversity throughout students' educational journeys on the performance of native students. Research in this field encounters two significant empirical challenges stemming from the selection of immigrant and native cohorts within public schools. While prior studies have effectively addressed biases linked to foreign student selection, constraints in available data have impeded an examination of the selection process affecting native students. To address this, the author compares students from the same families who have encountered varying levels of diversity in their educational experiences. The analysis demonstrates that exposure to foreign students is linked to enhanced academic performance among native students hailing from less privileged backgrounds. This effect is primarily driven by foreign students originating from countries where values such as patience, deferred gratification, and self-control are most prevalent. Students from these countries contribute to the transmission of their cultural traits to native populations.

Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga

University Carlos III of Madrid, Spain

Natives contribute to the residential segregation of immigrants

In many countries, migrants and natives often reside in separate neighborhoods, leading to residential segregation. This significantly impacts inequality, as where one lives determines employment opportunities, access to amenities, quality of life, and children's educational environment. Thus, studying residential segregation and its changes provides insight into the integration prospects of immigrants and their descendants in host countries. This policy brief focuses on Spain, which experienced substantial immigration waves from 1990 to 2010. It shows that segregation arises not solely from immigrants' choices but also from native-born residents leaving areas where immigrants settle. This phenomenon, known as "native flight," primarily affects immigrants from poorer countries, contributing to the isolation of less-educated immigrants. While short-term positive effects may arise, residential segregation hampers language learning, negatively impacting parents' wage progression and children's educational success. Among immigrants from impoverished countries, refugees represent the most vulnerable and challenging group to integrate. The geographical placement of international protection applicants into accommodation centers significantly influences their integration process.

Dany Bahar

Brown University, USA

The labor market integration of refugees is key to their nation's reconstruction effort

Refugees, particularly those from Ukraine, have the potential to make swift and positive contributions to host countries' economies. To achieve this, it is crucial to develop effective policies based on evidence and insights gained from other nations' experiences. This policy brief underscores the significance of inclusive policies that welcome and integrate refugees, not only for the migrants and host countries, but also for the countries of origin. Successful integration places refugees in the optimal position to contribute to the reconstruction of their home countries. While integration may reduce the number of candidates for return migration in the post-conflict period, it does enhance the "quality" of returns and their economic impact in the country of origin. Economically well-integrated refugees play a vital role in spreading ideas, knowledge, and technologies. They enhance the productivity of existing businesses and foster entrepreneurial endeavors in their countries of origin. Given the current context, if the international community genuinely desires to assist Ukraine and contribute to extensive post-conflict reconstruction efforts, the appropriate approach is to empower refugees to reach their full potential in the host country, rather than assuming their immediate desire to return home.

Patricia Cortes

Boston University, USA

Immigration, Household Services, and Women’s Economic Opportunities

Personal services encompass a broad array of activities, including childcare, care for the elderly and disabled, household services, gardening, and more. In Europe and North America, approximately two-thirds of employees working in this sector have an immigrant background and possess relatively low levels of education. These employees alleviate families of certain domestic responsibilities, enabling them to allocate more time to the labor market. The impact is particularly notable among highly skilled women, who tend to invest more in household help and childcare. In this policy brief, Patricia Cortes reveals that the inflow of low-skilled foreign workers results in a decrease in the cost of household services, fostering an increased demand for domestic services and subsequently leading to higher labor force participation among women. This effect primarily manifests among women in the top quartile of the wage distribution, contributing to a significant reduction in the gender pay gap at higher income levels. Similar outcomes have been observed across Europe, including countries such as Spain, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Joan Monras

Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Spain) and Princeton University (USA)

The labor market effects of immigration dissipate rapidly over time and space

The existing body of literature on the labor market impact of immigration has never reached a consensus. Diverging perspectives from renowned economists, including recent Nobel Prize laureate David Card, contribute to the ongoing debate. Card's research, which compares cities with varying levels of immigration, suggests that the effects of immigration on native labor market outcomes are minimal. In contrast, Harvard economist George Borjas contends that local labor markets in the United States are closely interconnected, meaning shocks affecting one market can spill over to nearby markets. Borjas' estimates differ significantly from those put forth by David Card. Within this literature, the labor market response to immigration is often conceptualized as a single numerical value: the extent to which a one-percent increase in labor supply, resulting from immigration, impacts native wages or employment rates. However, this policy brief shows that the most comprehensive approach to this fundamental question might not rely on a single figure, but rather on a new set of inquiries. These include exploring whether any observed effects dissipate over time and space, determining the duration of the diffusion process, and uncovering the economic mechanisms that underlie these phenomena.

Tijan Bah*, Catia Batista**, Flore Gubert*°, David McKenzie°°

* Navarra Center for International Development, ** Nova School of Business and Economics, *° IRD/DIAL, and °° World Bank, July 2022

What policies to deter irregular migration from Africa to Europe?

Undocumented migrants frequently embark on perilous journeys across the Mediterranean Sea, exposing themselves to extreme dangers and the violence perpetrated by smuggling networks. In this policy brief, the authors employ randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to compare the effectiveness of three policies aimed at addressing undocumented migration from the Gambia to Europe. These policies include: (i) an information campaign highlighting the risks and benefits of illegal migration to Europe, (ii) an information campaign emphasizing the benefits of legal migration to Dakar, and (iii) a free vocational training program tailored to meet labor demands in urban Gambia or Dakar. After a sixteen-month period following the interventions, the migration behaviors and intentions of the "treated groups" were evaluated in comparison to a control group of similar size. The results reveal that information campaigns emphasizing the high risks associated with illegal migration to Europe have limited effects on migration behaviors and intentions. Conversely, policies that provide local economic alternatives have a tangible impact on migratory behavior. Specifically, offering vocational training programs that lead to job prospects in Dakar or urban Gambia yields the desired effects. Addressing the underlying causes of illegal emigration necessitates implementing policies that generate stable and high-quality employment opportunities for young job seekers.

Michel Beine, Frédéric Docquier, Joël Machado, Birte Nienaber, Adolfo Sommarribas*

* University of Luxembourg, ** LISER, and *** European Migration Network
June 2022

Ukrainian Refugee Crisis Tests Luxembourg’s Humanitarian and Integration Policy

This policy brief discusses the issues related to the massive inflow of refugees from Ukraine, the need for monitoring its consequences and for implementing a solid evidence-based action plan to improve refugees’ integration. It refers more specifically to the situation of Ukrainian refugee women and children (accompanied and unaccompanied), in relation with three specific issues of this crisis: (i) the historic decision made by the European Council of granting refugees immediate protection with the Temporary Protection Directive; (ii) the high human trafficking risks due to the population involved; (iii) the challenges of integration and accommodation caused by the scale of the crisis. The authors insist on the importance of establishing a monitoring system for refugees and developing an action plan to accelerate and facilitate integration, based on data analysis and research. Academic research of past refugee crises reveals that some policies have a strong incidence on the economic and social integration of displaced persons. The effectiveness of integration policies is likely to be context-specific and varies according to the type of population targeted. A rigorous evaluation of existing policies and reforms is desirable. This first requires accessing, linking and merging different sorts of data. Researchers also formulates concrete recommendations of research regarding the situation in Luxembourg.

Andrea Albanese, David Marguerit

LISER
May 2022

The gap in the middle: Luxembourg attracts low and high-skilled cross-border workers

Nearly half of Luxembourg's workforce live in a neighboring country. Relying on administrative data and Artificial Intelligence algorithms, this policy brief sheds light on the main determinants of Belgian workers’ probability of accepting a cross-border job in Luxembourg. It show that Luxembourg's economy attracts workers from the tails of the skill distribution – i.e. both workers with relatively low levels and high levels of education. Graduates of primary schooling have the same probability of transition to cross-border work as holders of a bachelor degree. The probability is even greater for holders of a Master degree. By contrast, individuals at the center of the distribution (e.g. secondary school diploma) are less likely to cross the border. The same polarized structure is obtained when skills are proxied by the pre-transition income level, rather than by level of education. Less surprisingly, the probability of accepting a job in Luxembourg is also positively correlated with past experience (having previously worked in Luxembourg), age (young people are more mobile), unemployment status, or distance to the border.

Frédéric Docquier*, Massimo Morelli**, Eugenio Peluso*

* LISER and ** Bocconi University
May 2022

Democracies in danger: How Can We Break the Vicious Circle of Populism?

Populist parties draw attention to the perceived divide between the virtuous, homogeneous people they claim to represent and the corrupt, self-serving elite. Their discourse is characterized by authoritarianism, nationalism, and the exploitation of societal divisions. While populism has always existed in various forms, the current surge of populism in Europe is particularly concerning due to its intensity and the enduring factors that supposedly underlie it. The number of countries led by populist leaders has reached an unprecedented high, following a continuous upward trend over the past three decades. Analysis of manifesto data reveals a significant and unremitting increase in both the volume margin (vote share for populist parties) and the mean margin of populism (a weighted average of populism scores across all parliamentary parties) since the financial crisis of 2007-09. Governance indicators thus indicate that democracies are currently facing a profound crisis. In this policy brief, we shed light on these trends in populism, explore the potential mechanisms that contribute to the "snowball" effect, and advocate for concrete actions to restore trust in traditional parties, local institutions, and European institutions alike. Addressing the rise of populism requires proactive measures to rebuild trust and strengthen democratic institutions. It is crucial to counter the allure of populist rhetoric by promoting inclusive policies, fostering open dialogue, and reaffirming the importance of democratic values. Only through concerted efforts can we overcome this challenging period and restore faith in our democratic systems.

Lucas Guichard, Joël Machado, Jean-François Maystadt**

* LISER and ** UCLouvain
April 2022

The Ukrainian Exodus Calls for Better Coordination in the European Asylum Policy

The inflow of Ukrainian refugees is unprecedented in the history of Europe since the Second World War. This policy brief discusses the potential economic consequences of this crisis, as well as issues related to the geographical distribution of refugees within the European Union. Using different distribution keys, they propose some ways to determine a more balanced distribution of refugees according to the absorption capacities of each country. A lack of coordination would certainly lead to an asymmetrical situation where countries such as Germany, Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Romania, characterized by a strong Ukrainian diaspora and geographically close to Ukraine, would host the majority of refugees. According to a minimum scenario of 4 million Ukrainian refugees in the EU27 countries, Luxembourg should welcome between 5,600 (key based on population) and 15,000 (key based on GDP). Applying the same criteria to a more pessimistic scenario of 10 million refugees would lead to flows of between 14,000 and 37,000 individuals. The authors call for better coordination in the European asylum policy.

Tommaso Frattini

University of Milan
March 2022

Lift the Ban? Initial Employment Restrictions and Refugee Labor Market Outcomes

A common feature of asylum legislation in Western countries is the existence of restrictions on the employment of asylum seekers while their application is being considered. This policy brief shows that these restrictions, have lasting effects on refugees’ economic integration. More than the number of months, it is the very existence of a restriction (in other words, whether or not asylum seekers have immediate access to the labor market of the host country) which influences integration. One might think that such restrictions discourage abuse of the humanitarian channel by economic migrants, or makes it easier to send unsuccessful applicants back to their home country. The analysis does not validate such effects and highlights significant costs. Over a period of 8 years, the loss of potential income amounts to approximately 4,100 euros per year and per refugee. This also results in considerable tax losses for the host country.

Martin Fernandez-Sanchez

LISER
December 2021

Historical emigration and its long-run impact on human capital at origin

Over the past decades, migration flows have increased drastically, placing the consequences for countries of origin and destination at the forefront of public debates. Social scientists are increasingly turning to historical data to shed light on migration phenomena. The historical perspective offers the opportunity to explore new questions by exploiting natural experiments as well as very rich data sources covering often several decades. This historical perspective therefore offers sufficient hindsight to distinguish the short, medium and long-term consequences of migration shocks. The recent study by Martín Fernandez-Sanchez uses the historical approach to reexamine one of the main research questions related to emigration: how does the outflow of relatively skilled people affect the dynamics of human capital in the region of origin? The study focuses on the Galician emigration between 1900 and 1930. The analysis shows that the municipalities most affected by past emigration experienced a sharp decline in literacy rates during the exodus. However, this decline was only temporary. A decade after the exodus and in the longer run, these municipalities showed significantly higher levels of human capital than the rest of Galicia.

Paola Giuliano° & Marco Tabellini*

* UCLA and ** Harvard Business School
October 2021

The seeds of ideology – Historical immigration and political preferences in the United States

Immigration is often seen as an important determinant of the rise of far-right movements and populism in host countries. A large and growing body of research has confirmed this short or medium term political impact. The very long-term effect of immigration on the ideology of host countries has been understudied. While first-generation immigrants differ from natives in political preferences, they may also gradually assimilate or affect native preferences. This study quantifies the impact of the migration of millions of Europeans to North America at the turn of the 20th century (period 1900-1930) on the political preferences of the current US-born population. The major result is that the American population who now live in areas of historic high immigration are significantly more likely to adhere to Democratic Party ideology, to vote for more ambitious social programs, or to support increases in social security. minimum wage. These effects are quantitatively important. The origin of immigrants plays an important role. Their exposure to advances in social protection in home countries in the early 20th century is strongly correlated with current preferences for redistribution among the American population..

Michela Carlana*, Eliana La Ferrara & Paolo Pinotti

* Harvard University and ** Bocconi University
May 2021

Stereotypes about immigrant students and discrimination in grading

Anti-immigrant stereotypes are widespread in most contemporary societies. They may lead to discrimination and, possibly, self-fulfilling prophecies by influencing the behavior of discriminated groups in the direction predicted by stereotypes. Focusing on the Italian education system, this Policy brief investigates the impact of revealing implicit stereotypes to teachers by randomizing the timing of disclosure around the date on which they assign term grades. Implicit stereotypes are measured using an Implicit Association Test (IAT). In recent years, employees of several corporations and academic institutions such as Starbucks and Harvard University have been encouraged to take such tests to reveal possible gender-based or racially based stereotypes, and to increases awareness of unconscious associations. Over two-thirds of the sampled teachers exhibit moderate to severe degree of associations between immigrant-bad and native-good… and those who are biased implicitly against immigrants give them lower grades. The second part of the experimentation consists of revealing implicit stereotypes to a randomly selected sub-sample of teachers. Receiving the feedback on the IAT before grading shifts grades in favor of immigrant students. This effect only holds among teachers who do not report explicit views against immigrants, suggesting that revealing stereotypes to someone who already explicitly acknowledges them is ineffective. However, revealing unconscious stereotypes helps prevent discriminatory behavior.

Sulin Sardoschau

Humboldt University in Berlin
March 2021

Immigrants are stealing your culture… but not in the way you think

When talking about migration and cultural change, the first thing that comes to mind is the cultural dynamics triggered by immigration into the receiving countries. Statements such as “Immigration is a threat to Western values” summarize a recurring theme among right-wing nationalists, ranging from outright conspiracy theories of a Great Replacement to milder calls for the protection of the besieged native culture and its values. Various versions of this argument have made their way into mainstream politics. The Hungarian Prime Minister Orban expressed in a speech in 2018 that “We must state that we do not want to be diverse [...] We do not want our own color, traditions, and national culture to be mixed with those of others.” Just a few months later, former US President Trump reaffirmed this concern, saying that European leaders should “better watch themselves” because immigration was “changing the culture” of their societies. While the focus on receiving countries is important and can yield valuable insights, other compositional and dynamic effects can also govern migration-based cultural change. This policy brief investigates whether migration makes countries culturally more similar, looking at the effect of migration on cultural dynamics in both sending and receiving countries, and shedding light on the main diffusion mechanisms at work. It shows that migrants are agents of cultural change but the much cited dilution of Western culture through immigration seems to play a minor role in comparison to the promoting force that migrants play in the diffusion of the destination country’s culture. Immigrants “steal” the destination country’s culture without taking away from it. By contrast, they send these norms and values back to their home communities, inspiring cultural change there.

Frédéric Docquier and Bertrand Verheyden

LISER
February 2021

In Luxembourg, immigrants' integration is everyone's business... So what?

Immigrants and refugees are among the most vulnerable categories of the population. Their economic, social, political and even cultural integration has become a major topic of public debate. It is thus not surprising that governments have designed and implemented policies to facilitate immigrants’ reception and integration, to promote social cohesion and to ensure equal opportunities. Luxembourg has not remained on the sidelines of these developments, The country offers immigrants a Contrat d’Accueil et d’Intégration (CAI) accompanied by two Plans d’Action Nationaux (PAN) giving rise to numerous actions carried out by local authorities, associations and exchange platforms. Contrary to neighboring countries, these instruments are based on voluntary participation. Despite growing attention to integration issues, however, immigrants still tend to have worse economic and social outcomes than the native-born and have generally not caught up. This raises the question of the effectiveness of integration policies. In the new era of evidenced-based policy-making, research in social science, by the means of program evaluation, is desirable to assess the impact of integration programs and to identify what can be improved and reorganized. In Luxembourg, the implementation of a system of monitoring and evaluation is one of the goals of the PAN 2018. Not much has been achieved so far. This policy brief motivates the need to go further, emphasizes the challenges of the task, and proposes a few concrete solutions to overcome them.

Michal Burzynski

LISER
December 2020

The Medium-Term Impact of Covid-19 in Luxembourg

The economy of Luxembourg has been drastically affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. As the spread of Covid-19 continues, hundreds of new cases are reported every day, and infections skyrocket in all EU member states. The chances of improving the economic prospects in the coming months are slim, as authorities in many countries implement mild lockdown measures. This policy brief investigates the distributional impact of the Covid-19 crisis focusing on the medium-term, which is meant to depict a situation with occupational and sectoral labor mobility, endogenous firms’ bankruptcies, relative price adjustments, and a restoration of the pre-crisis fiscal policy. It considers the worst-case scenario of a long-lasting Covid-19 economic recession, taking the Covid-driven changes in final demand, firms’ bankruptcy rates and costs of running business observed in 2020Q2 as permanent. The model predicts that the less-skill intensive sectors (e.g. sales, low-skilled services, construction, and manufacturing sectors) lose substantially, while more back-office sectors (e.g. transports, financial services, professional services and public administrations) suffer less. Overall, 13% of firms exit the market. The shocks force workers to leave the occupations that are intensively used in losing sectors (e.g. service workers, elementary occupations), flowing mainly to unemployment. By contrast, the occupations predominantly used in winning sectors (e.g. manufacturing and professionals) gain new employees. The sorting patterns translate directly into changes in wage distributions by sector. Consequently, inequality increases in the Luxembourgish labor market, as the bottom 40% of workers lose nearly 8% of their real wages, while top 20% lose less than 6%.

Sergei Guriev

Science Po
December 2020

Immigration and Populism

The rise of populism has become a top political and economic issue in the US and Europe. Immigration is certainly not the only explanation for this, but for many today’s populists, immigration is one of the top issues on their policy agenda and they frequently refer to both economic and identity arguments related to immigration. This policy brief summarizes recent work on the impact of increasing immigration on the growing support for populism. It highlights that immigration does not necessarily need to fuel populism; in fact, the sign and size of its impact may vary depending on many factors. If immigrants and refugees are settled and integrated, the attitudes toward them are more positive and anti-immigration parties are less likely to gain votes. Another important takeway is that, to beat populists on their own ground, it is crucial to stand up to populist leaders in the public debate, in particular, online. Fact-checking the populists’ claims is necessary but not sufficient. There is a need for innovative approaches to political communication and engagement, for example, deliberative democracy.

Michal Burzynski, Frédéric Docquier, Joël Machado (LISER)

Ferdy Adam, Tom Haas (STATEC)

Joint LISER-STATEC policy brief
December 2020

How bad will the Covid-19 second wave be for Luxembourg's economy?

The Covid-19 second wave is hitting much of Europe. While this wave mostly affected young healthy people at its start, it is now spreading to older and more vulnerable segments of the population. It is thus with a weary sense of déjà vu that European citizens have been impacted by new packages of restrictions implemented to contain the virus and to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. Some countries entered a new (total or partial) lockdown allowing people to leave their home only to go to work (when teleworking is not feasible) or to buy essential goods and seek medical help, banning or limiting social gatherings, prescribing curfew, shutting non-essential activities, etc. In theory, such restrictions induce ambiguous effects on the economy as they directly curtail market transactions but also avoid panic-driven responses. Yet, lockdown measures implemented in March and April generated mechanical and sizeable cuts in output and plunged most economies into a temporary recession. History might be repeating itself in the coming weeks and the specter of a re-confinement hangs over Luxembourg’s economy. In this policy brief, we combine recent tools developed at STATEC and LISER to assess the macroeconomic impact of the second wave, to shed light on the interactions between macroeconomic and epidemiological outcomes, and to compare the implications of moderately and highly coercive sanitary measures.

Simone Bertoli*, Lucas Guichard**, Francesca Marchetta*

* CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne and ** LISER
October 2020

The Human Cost of Public Events during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the March 2020 Elections in France (October 2020)

The COVID-19 virus is thought to be mostly spread by respiratory droplets or by hand contacts with a contaminated surface. Once carrying the virus on their hands, people usually pick up infection by touching facial mucous membranes such as eyes, nose and mouth. Therefore, the risks associated with the pandemic are increasing with the number of people gathered at the same location. We make use of a unique experiment – the first round of the March 2020 municipal elections in France – to evaluate the human cost of a large public event that was held when the pandemic gained momentum in Europe...

Michal Burzynski and Frédéric Docquier

LISER
June 2020

Recovering from the Covid-19 crisis - Insights from an epidemionomic model

Managing the Covid-19 crisis is often perceived as finding the right balance between saving lives and saving the economy or, to put in crude terms, between epidemiologists and economists’ priorities. The problem is more subtle and complex. Without public health intervention, a collapse of the health care system alone could have generated panic, a systemic crash of the whole international debt network, and an even more severe economic recession. Conversely, restarting the economy is necessary to fund our health care system, to avoid systemic bankruptcies, and to limit the indirect effects that economic damages inflicted by the lockdown have on mental health and human lives. Within the Task Force for the Coordination of the Public Research Sector in the Context of the Covid-19 Pandemic, economists and epidemiologists have developed a new model that links the two facets of the Covid-19 crisis. Parameterized on the Luxembourg's economy and accounting for cross-border labor movements within the Greater Region, this epidemionomic model is used to nowcast and forecast the public health and economic effects of the crisis week after week throughout 2020. The nowcasting part of the analysis reveals that each week of lockdown reduces national output by about 28% (and annual GDP by 0.54%). During the lockdown, the most adversely affected industries were the construction sector, HORESCA, and wholesale and Retail Trade Services. In an economy heavily relying on skill-intensive services, the study also shows that the role of teleworking has been instrumental to limiting the weekly economic output loss (almost by one half) and the propagation of the virus. While it is a good time for lifting containment measures, the forecasting part of the analysis highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future evolution of transmission rates on the job and outside the labor market. There is a significant risk that resuming social activities and, to a lesser extent, increasing the density of employees at the workplace may induce a rebound in the infection curve. To avoid such a rebound, our researchers make five policy recommendations.

Simone Bertoli

CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne
Jun. 2020

Processing time and the origin mix of asylum applications to European countries

The evolution of the total number of asylum applications that are lodged in European countries reveals the occurrence of violent conflicts or of protracted conditions of insecurity in neighboring countries. This happened in the early 1990s, when the war in the Former Yugoslavia led to a surge in the arrivals of asylum seekers, and again more recently between 2014 and 2016, with large number of Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans came to Europe in search for international protection. Over this three-year period, European countries received more than three million asylum applications, with the peak reached in 2015 being more than twice as high as the one recorded back in 1991.

Klaus Desmet

Dedman College at SMU Dallas
April 2020

Escaping the rising tide by moving

Global warming is causing the thermal expansion of oceans, the melting of glaciers, and the retreat of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. If the world continues with “business as usual”, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expects the average sea level to rise by 0.3 to 0.6 meters by the end of the century. This is bound to disrupt life as we know it, especially in many of the world’s coastal cities. Researchers have struggled to come up with credible estimates of the economic cost of coastal flooding. Existing studies have often been limited to simple accounting exercises that estimate the current value of structures or income in flood-prone areas. Essentially, using economic data of today, these studies interpret the cost of coastal flooding as the value of housing and GDP that will become permanently inundated as the sea level rises. As such, these assessments implicitly assume that people and economic activity will simply drown, thus obviating the possibility of relocation.

Giovanni Facchini

University of Nottingham
Mar. 2020

Are political and economic integration intertwined?

Over the past 30 years, several European countries have seen their foreign born populations double or triple and in some cases like Luxembourg, migrants represent today almost half of the residents. As a result societies have become increasingly diverse. Over centuries of political developments democracy and democratic representation have emerged as the preferable means of aggregating heterogeneous preferences, but to what extent are immigrants involved in the political process in the destination country? Answering this question has important implications for the engagement of migrant communities with the host country’s society and for the policies that in turn will be adopted.

Frédéric Docquier

LISER - Crossing Borders
Dec. 2019

Climate migration frightens... climate poverty is frightening!

Michał Burzyński, Christoph Deuster, Frédéric Docquier, Jaime de Melo published a VoxEU entry on climate migration. There has been much discourse on how long-term climate change will affect human mobility over the course of the 21st century. This column estimates the long-term welfare and mobility responses to climate change. Depending on the scenario, climate change will force between 210 and 320 million people to move, mostly within their own countries. Massive international flows of climate refugees are unlikely, except under generalised and persistent conflicts. The poorest economies will be hardest hit, thus increasing global inequality and extreme poverty.

Michel Beine

University of Luxembourg
Dec. 2019

Can governments facilitate the enrolment of foreign students in their universities?

Skill-biased technological changes tend to lead to more complex tasks and jobs in most industries. They generate skill shortages in some sectors or occupations, which can be intensified by the fierce international competition to attract foreign talent. Attracting foreign students, educating them, and retaining them so they can work in the domestic labour market is a relevant option. An investigation of the Campus France policy initiated in 2007 shows that making applications to universities easier for foreign students increases the number of applications and allows universities to select the best ones.

Hillel Rapoport

Paris School of Economics
Nov. 2019

Do immigrants make us (Europeans) less supportive of redistribution?

Hillel Rapoport is Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, a researcher at LISER, and a research fellow at IZA, CESifo, Harvard Center for International Development, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and the European Development Network (EUDN). He serves as scientific advisor to CEPII and as Director of the department “Dynamics” of the Migration Institute in Paris. His research focuses on the growth and developmental impact of migration and on the economics of immigration, diversity, and refugees’ relocation and resettlement.

Georges J. Borjas

Harvard Kennedy School
Mar. 2019

Job Vacancies and Immigration: Evidence from Pre- and Post-Mariel Miami

As part of the ongoing LISER Research Seminar Series (RSS), Prof. George Borjas (Harvard) was invited to present at the lecture series his latest paper entitled “Job Vacancies and Immigration: Evidence from Pre- and Post-Mariel Miami.”
LISER researcher Joël Machado sat down with Prof. Borjas to discuss current and future developments in migration economics.