DRM | Partnership activities | Preparedness - Forecast-based Financing (FbF)

Anticipation - Forecast-based Financing (FbF)

Forecast-based actions allow for early anticipation and response, using disaster and epidemic forecasts rather than waiting to react to their impacts.

The idea is to take advantage of the time window between the moment we are warned that a disaster is about to occur and the passage of the potential disaster, in order to take early action that allows populations to anticipate the coming event, protect their lives and safeguard livelihoods.

Forecast-based actions combine weather or epidemic forecasts with risk analysis to anticipate and reduce the impacts of disasters and epidemics, thereby enhancing community resilience.

Brochure on the RCRC Movement’s forecast-based financing mechanism (DREF Anticipation Pillar): FR - EN - ES

What is an Early Action Protocol (EAP)?

Various funding mechanisms are available to support anticipatory action based on forecasts—this is known as Forecast-based Financing (FbF).

Within the RCRC Movement, the Early Action Protocol (EAP) is a key tool that makes it possible to access funds from the DREF (Anticipatory Pillar) ahead of an imminent disaster. It outlines a set of activities (preparedness, pre-positioning and early actions) that NS will carry out before a predictable hazard occurs, based on predetermined thresholds and triggers. Developing these forecasting models and trigger mechanisms that are part of an EAP requires thorough analysis of the context and associated risks. Depending on the type of hazard, it may also be necessary to involve data specialists to ensure the robustness and reliability of the model. Below are the stages involved in developing an EAP.

Creating an Early Action Protocol involves several key steps: The process begins with an in-depth analysis of potential hazards and vulnerabilities specific to the country or context in question. This is followed by the identification of forecasts, based on the selection of reliable information sources to define thresholds, assess risk impact levels and anticipate potential consequences. This phase is crucial for determining the early actions to be implemented in the event of a crisis.

Once this foundation is in place, the EAP can be drafted (including procedures, budget and required resources) and submitted to the DREF Approval Committee. Following approval by the IFRC, forecasts are closely monitored to detect any thresholds that have been exceeded. If thresholds are crossed, quick actions are launched immediately. See explanatory diagram.

Glossary of terms related to anticipation and forecast-based financing

EAP development methodology

There is an IFRC manual on how to develop FbF (FR - EN - ES - AR). Below are links to various chapters of the manuall:

Feasibility assessment and willingness to engage in FbF (FR - EN)
Encourage your stakeholders to get involved (FR - EN)
Setting up FbF programme (FR - EN)
Developing an early action protocol (FR - EN)
How to obtain EAP approval and secure funding s (FR - EN)
Activate, monitor, evaluate (FR - EN)
Simplified EAP – Concept Note (FR - EN) - Guide for the Simplified EAP (FR -EN)

EAPs are primarily developed for natural hazards, but the anticipation of epidemics is increasingly being explored (see Epidemic Considerations Guidance – Anticipation Hub - FR - EN). The French Red Cross has contributed to the development of the Movement’s first epidemic-related EAP, focused on cholera in Cameroon (more information below).

Templates

Guide/Template for comprehensive EAP t (FR - EN)
Guide/Template for simplified EAP (FR - EN)
EAP budget template
Activation template - DREF (FR - EN)
Final report activation template - DREF (FR - EN)
Operations update template - DREF (FR - EN)
Annual report template - DREF (FR - EN)
Final report template - DREF (FR - EN)

EAP submission guide

Guide ( FR - EN )
Evaluation grid used by the Approval Committee for the comprehensive EAP ( FR - EN )
Evaluation grid used by the Approval Committee for the simplified EAP ( FR - EN )

Examples

EAP video, drought in Niger