Validating the ACG Risk Stratification Tool for Dutch Primary Care

Background

In order to manage increasing healthcare utilization and costs, Population Health Management approaches are becoming popular. Risk stratification, the process of assigning risk scores to individuals, with the aim to assign healthcare resources accordingly, is an important part of Population Health Management. One of the internationally recognized risk stratification tools is the Johns Hopkins University’s Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG) system. However, this tool has not yet been validated in the Dutch setting. 

Aims

The aim of this project is to validate expected healthcare utilization and predicted risk scores of the ACG software in Dutch Primary Care. This comprises: 

• Validation of the main ACG categories and diagnosis groups to determine expected healthcare utilization in primary care. 

• Validation of the ACG system’s risk scores to predict future hospitalization and healthcare costs. 

Project Outcomes

• Girwar, SM (2023, June 22). Risk stratification in Dutch primary care: a promising approach to manage population health. [Doctoral Thesis]

• Girwar S-AM, Verloop JC, Fiocco M, Sutch SP, Numans ME, Bruijnzeels MA (2022) Identifying complex patients using Adjusted Clinical Groups risk stratification tool. Am J Manag Care 2022; 28(4):e140-e145. doi: 10.37765/ajmc.2022.88867

• Girwar S-AM, Jabroer R, Fiocco M, Sutch SP, Numans ME, Bruijnzeels MA (2021). A systematic review of risk stratification tools internationally used in primary care settings. Health Sci Rep, 4:e329. doi: 10.1002/hsr2.329

• Girwar S-AM, Fiocco M, Sutch SP, Numans ME, Bruijnzeels MA (2021). Assessment of the Adjusted Clinical Groups system in Dutch primary care using electronic health records: a retrospective cross-sectional study. BMC Health Serv Res, 21:217. doi: 10.1186/s12913-021-06222-9

Team

• Dr. M. Bruijnzeels, Leiden University Medical Centre, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, LUMC Campus the Hague

• Prof. dr. M. Fiocco, Mathematical Institute Leiden University, Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center & Princess Máxima Center for Pediatric Oncology, Utrecht

• S.-A. Girwar, PhD candidate, Leiden University Medical Centre, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, LUMC Campus the Hague

• Prof. dr. M. Numans, Head Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Centre

• Dr. S. Sutch, Bloomberg School of Public Health Johns Hopkins University, Department of Health Policy and Management, Baltimore & Leiden University Medical Centre, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, LUMC Campus the Hague