HUMAN POPULATION

Growth of Population

Through the dawn of time, all animals, insects, and even plants had the similar goal in the wild to reproduce to survive. But throughout time there have been multiple examples of over population of different species that have grown too much, resulting in their demise. Looking back at human history, the population has grown from around 1 billion in the 1800 to 8 billion today. In the grand scheme of population growth, it seems that most growth happened only from 100 years ago, with 2 billion in 1928 and jumping to 6 billion in 1999! With that big of a population explosion, there is a “cause” to the effect. Looking even closer into the 2000s and the present, it is actually the opposite. Scientists have found that the population growth rate peaked decades ago. The highest rate was from 1962 to 1969, with an annual growth rate of 2.2%. (Roser,Ritchie,Ortiz-Ospina,Rodés-Guirao; 2013) In both the rise and fall of population growth, there is always a reason behind it, and with the future predicted to hit 10 billion by 2085, it would be in good interest to be well rounded on the matter.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

WHY

From not only studying our population but also the population of other species that had similar jumps, scientists can link food as a direct relationship with population. Seeing that the growth was so fast, only portrays our success as a species. From being increasingly well fed, healthy, and safe from predators, it is actually shocking that our growth rate was not higher. But ironically, human fertility rates have plummeted. The main cause of this is the invention of different contraceptive methods that give us a means of controlling when to be able to reproduce. Furthermore, controlling, to an extent, how many children a woman chooses to have. This could potentially be due to how “good” humans have it in the survival aspect. Centuries ago, humans had to quite literally fight to survive, and the only way to do that was to reproduce to successfully pass down genes to future generations.

But in today's society, the survival aspect is based on how wealthy a person is. In turn, the more babies someone has the more expensive it would be. As proven, seeing that in the richest parts of the world, they tend to have fewer children. In the European Union, the average number of children born stands at 1.6, and with 2.1 being the number to maintain the population, the population is decreasing. Which might seem scary, as stated earlier, the growth is a reflection of human success. So if there is no more growth, then there could be a failure to human progress.

Luckily, it is not a black and white relationship, success does not always mean growth, and failure does not always mean the end. Low fertility rates could actually be an advantage to humans in the long run. Instead of parents investing in 6 or even 10 different children to protect their lineage and survival, only giving each child the bare minimum. Parents could increase their likelihood of descendants by overly investing in fewer children. Ultimately having the same outcome of successfully ensuring their lineage.

Of course, there are just as many disadvantages as there are advantages. Such as the effect it has on the existing environment. With more people, means more carbon and methane emissions, which will further pollute the environment, and that is with what natural environment is left. Humans take up a lot more space than other species, with the demand for housing and farmlands. Not only more space but also greater consumption of non-renewable resources. All of these effects fall into one umbrella of not being able to have a completely self-sustaining society, and having a greater population only amplifies the issue.

Graph illustrating the Global Population and forecast to 2100

Source: World Bank | United Nations World Population Prospects 2019

Although predictions of the future illustrate the problems that coincide with a larger human population, it seems like an obvious fix would be to lower the human population. Keeping general morals in mind, the only humane way to reduce the size of the human population is to encourage lower per capita fertility. But this has already been in effect for decades in unintentional ways such as higher levels of education and empowerment of women, higher development of all nations. As well as more literal control such as China's one-child policy. But despite these efforts the environment is still declining. This is due to the way that human society is, and the notion that it is immoral to completely control what every individual chooses to do with their body. Along with the political, religious, and societal pressures and opinions of each person. There are different tests and scenarios projected portraying the best results, and strangely the least effective is a catastrophic event such as global epidemics, and world wars. So luckily humans do not have to put all their hopes of creating a better co-habitable world into having a world war, or another pandemic like covid.

Looking at scenarios of better controlling fertility rates instead, gave some promising results. But comes with issues like world governments controlling the natural rights of human beings. With implements such as a world wide one child policy, the population can decrease by half its size now(2013 population) by 2130. With many different factors and opinions, some stating that the population will stop growing by this century and others saying that without control, the population will continue to grow, more research on the topic is needed. Not only for the survival of mankind, but also other species of plants and animals.

Declining Rates In the US

In Mid-November of 2022, The Worlds Human Population surpassed 8 billion people. As of 2020, 385,000 babies are born every day. That would break down to 267 babies being born every minute. While these numbers are very substantial, would you believe that global birth rates are and have been decreasing for decades? If we look at the world during the 1950s, the average global family had five children, but now, they have less than three. Just to clarify some terms, the birth rate isthe total number of births in a year per 1,000 individuals. The fertility rate is the total number of births in a year per 1,000 women of reproductive age in a population. The fertility rate is a more specific measure while allowing for more beneficial planning, efficiency, and resource allocation. A given area needs an overall fertility rate of 2.1 to maintain a stable population.

Rafal Rodzoch / Caiaimage - Getty Images

Why American's Are Waiting to Have Kids

The Great Recession in the United States began in late 2007 and started the disruption of a stable period in birth rates in the US. Between 1980 and 2007, the United States birth rate drifted between 65 and 70 births per 1,000 women. A decline in birth rates during an economic decline is predictable and will recover when the economy recovers. But something was different because, after the Great Recession, the birth rate did not recover. As a result, the U.S. birth rate has continued a steady decline (Mundell 2023). As of 2020, the U.S. birth rate was 55.8 births per 1,000 women which is a large decline of 20 percent from the rate in 2007 of 69.3. Many young people, the majority of people who have children, feel great uncertainty about their ability to reach some of the goals they and society believe is necessary for having children. This would be having a good and stable job, a stable family relationship, and affordable housing that is safe. In the 1960s, during the baby boom, when everyone was starting families, the average cost of raising a child was about 26,000. Now in 2020, the cost of raising a child is just under $230,000 and rising rapidly. Parents are also feeling a greater pressure to live up to high-intensive parenting standards and prepare their children for an uncertain world. As of 2019, when the COVID-19 pandemic began, it has only intensified the feelings of instability by exposing the lack of support for American parents. People who believe in waiting for the “right time” to have a child are feeling increasingly out of reach.

The Effects On The States & Government

David Papazian / Getty Images

Decreasing birth rates not only impacts the population number but can soon affect state revenue. Over the next few decades, as baby boomers make their exit from the workforce and retire, there will be more job openings than there are people to fill them, which is a problem for states when it comes to budgeting and taxes. Today more and more women are joining the workforce to pressure their goals which are currently increasing the amount that states receive from income tax. A result of women joining the workforce is that they are either holding off and waiting to have kids or just eradicating their decision to have kids altogether, which will later affect states because, in the future, there will be fewer people to pay income tax so this becomes the ultimate catch 22 (Murray 2021). States are also facing the problem of migration. In 2020, 10 states experienced reductions exceeding 20% of their population. As an example, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s fiscal 2023 budget proposal brought attention to the mix of early retirements during the pandemic, migration rates, and lower fertility. The document stated, "With the rising cost of living and an already tight housing market, it could become increasingly difficult for the remaining working-age Californians to support the aging population.”

The drop in fertility will also affect the federal funding it receives. Several large federal programs like; Children’s Health Insurance Programs, Title I grants, and Education Programs grant money to states based on stats that incorporate population counts. States with higher birth rate decline and higher rates of migration to other states will see their funding reduced disproportionately to other states that face similar challenges. Trends in fertility will also weigh into property taxes which is a major source of revenue for many local governments and school districts. States like Vermont are already facing this problem. The Vermont Legislature’s Tax Structure Commission (LTSC) is seeing a trend toward smaller households lowering the assessed values of larger homes leading to reduced property taxes which is less revenue funding for education (Tabachnick 2023). Officials in the states beginning to face these challenges are exploring ways to address the issue. In May, lawmakers raised the child tax credit to $3,600 per child for qualifying children under the age of 6 and to $3,000per child for qualifying children ages 6 through 17. This was originally put in place to make it more affordable to start a family.

Authors:

Joey DeLuca, Criminal Justice, 2025

Jordan McDonald, Architecture, 2024

Sam Sirois, Business Management, 2025

Steven Nostro, Architecture, 2024

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