Publications
Below are my publications, listed in reverse chronological order (newest first). I have them separated by those in preparation, those submitted and in revision or review, those in press (and usually online soon after), and those published in final form. My name is in bold, and I have italicized it where I am first author. Contact me if you have any questions! Here is a link to my Google Scholar Page (Also Includes Conference Presentations).
In Preparation
-Alvey, G., Alaka, G., Gramer, L., and A. Hazelton, 2024: Evaluation of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Forecast Error Statistics Stratified by Internal Structure and Environmental Metrics, Wea. Forecasting, in preparation.
-Kim, H.-S., Liu, B., Thomas, B., Rosen, D., Wang, W., Hazelton, A., Zhang. Z., Zhang, X. and A. Mehra, 2024: Ocean component of the first operational version of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Evaluation of HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model forecasts, Frontiers in Earth Science, in preparation.
-Wang, W., Han, J., Shin, J., Chen, X., Hazelton, A., Zhu, L., Kim, H.-S., Li, X., Liu, B., Liu, Q., Steffen, J., Sun, R., Zheng, W., Zhang, Z. and F. Yang, 2024: Physics Schemes in the first version of NCEP Operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), Frontiers in Earth Science, in preparation.
In Revision/Review
-Bower, E., Reed, K. A, Alaka, Jr., G. A., and A. T. Hazelton, 2024: Verification of Operational Forecast Models in Cases of Extratropical Transition of North Atlantic Hurricanes, Wea. Forecasting, in review.
Published
2024
-Hazelton, A. T., Chen., X., Alaka, G. J.. Jr., Alvey, G. R. III, and S. Gopalakrishnan, 2024: Sensitivity of HAFS-B Tropical Cyclone Forecasts to Planetary Boundary Layer and Microphysics Parameterizations, Wea. Forecasting, 39, 655–678.
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0124.1
2023
-Hazelton, A., and Coauthors, 2023: 2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S). Front. Earth Sci., 11.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969/full
-Hazelton, A. T., Alaka, G. J., Jr., Fischer M., Torn, R., and S. Gopalakrishnan, 2023: Factors Influencing the Track of Hurricane Dorian (2019) in the West Atlantic: Analysis of a HAFS Ensemble, Mon. Wea. Rev., 151(1), 175-192.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/151/1/MWR-D-22-0112.1.xml
-Chen, X., Hazelton, A., Marks, F. D., Alaka, G. J., Jr., and C. Zhang, 2023: Performance of an Improved TKE-based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) PBL Scheme in 2021 Hurricane Forecasts from Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, Wea. Forecasting, 38, 321-336.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/38/2/WAF-D-22-0140.1.xml
-Stackhouse, S. D., S. E. Zick, C. J. Matyas, K. M. Wood, A. T. Hazelton, and G. J. Alaka, 2023: Evaluation of Experimental High-Resolution Model Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Using Object-Based Metrics. Weather Forecast., 38, 2111–2134.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/38/10/WAF-D-22-0223.1.xml
2022
-Hazelton, A. T., Gopalakrishnan, S., and J. A. Zhang, 2022: Comparison of The Hybrid EDMF and Modified EDMF-TKE PBL Schemes in 2020 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the Global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, Wea. Forecasting, 37(4), 457-476.
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0124.1
-Hazelton, A. T., and coauthors, 2022: 2020 Real-Time Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from Two High-Resolution Global-Nested Hurricane Models: AOML HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD, Wea. Forecasting, 37(1), 143-161.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/aop/WAF-D-21-0102.1/WAF-D-21-0102.1.xml
-Alvey, G. and A. Hazelton, 2022: The Transition from Mis-aligned to Aligned Vortex Structure Identified in Weak Tropical Cyclones using HAFS, J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD037268.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037268
-Chen, X., Bryan, G., Hazelton, A., Marks, F. and P. Fitzpatrick, 2022: Evaluation and Improvement of a TKE-based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux (EDMF) Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme in Hurricane Conditions, Wea. Forecasting, 37(6), 935-951.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/37/6/WAF-D-21-0168.1.xml
-Gramer, L. J. Zhang, J. A., Alaka, G., Hazelton, A. and S. Gopalakrishnan, 2022: Coastal downwelling intensifies landfalling hurricanes. Geo. Res. Let., e2021GL096630.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL096630
2021
Zhu, P., Hazelton, A., Zhang, Z., Marks, F. D., & Tallapragada, V. (2021). The role of eyewall turbulent transport in the pathway to intensification of tropical cyclones. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2021JD034983.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034983
-Hazelton, A. T., and coauthors, 2021: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts From the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS): Composite statistics and key events, Wea. Forecasting, 36(2), 519-538.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/aop/WAF-D-20-0044.1/WAF-D-20-0044.1.xml
-Hazelton, A.; Alaka, G.J., Jr., Cowan, L., Fischer, M., and S. Gopalakrishnan: Understanding the processes causing the early intensification of Hurricane Dorian through an ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). Atmosphere 2021, 12, 93.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/93
-Gopalakrishnan, S., Hazelton, A. T., and J. A. Zhang, 2021: Improving hurricane boundary layer parameterization scheme based on observations, Earth and Space Science., 8, e2020EA001422.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001422
-Zawislak, J., Rogers, R., Aberson. S., Alaka, G., Alvey, G., Askoy, A., Bucci, L., Cione, J., Dorst, N., Dunion, J., Fischer, M., Gamache, J., Gopalakrishnan, S., Hazelton, A., Holbach, H., Kaplan, J., Leighton, H., Marks, F., Murillo, S. T., Reasor, P., Ryan, K., Sellwood, K., Sippel, J., and J. Zhang, 2021: Fifteen Years of NOAA’s Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: Aircraft observations for improved understanding and prediction of hurricanes, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.
2020
-Hazelton, A. T., Zhang, X., Ramstrom, W., Gopalakrishan, S., Marks, F. D., and J. A. Zhang, 2020: High-resolution ensemble HFV3 forecasts of Hurricane Michael (2018): rapid intensification in shear, Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 2009-2032.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0275.1
-Lucas Harris, Linjiong Zhou, Shian-Jiann Lin, Jan-Huey Chen, Xi Chen, Kun Gao, Matthew Morin, Shannon Rees, Yongqiang Sun, Mingjing Tong, Baoqiang Xiang, Morris Bender, Rusty Benson, Kai-Yuan Cheng, Spencer Clark, Oliver Elbert, Andrew Hazelton, J. Jacob Huff, Zhi Liang, Timothy Marchok, Hyeyum Hailey Shin, and William Stern, 2020: GFDL SHiELD: A Unified System for Weather-to-Seasonal Prediction, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2020, 12(10).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020MS002223
-Dong, J., Liu, B., Zhang, Z., Wang, W., Mehra, A., Hazelton, A., Zhu, L., Wu, K., Zhang, C., Tallapragada, V., Zhang, X., Gopalakrishnan, S., and F. Marks, 2020: The Evaluation of Real-time Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Stand-Alone Regional (SAR) model performance in 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Atmosphere, 11(6), 617.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/617/htm
2019
-Gao, K., Harris, L., Chen, J-H, Lin, S-J, and A. Hazelton, 2019: Improving AGCM Hurricane Structure With Two‐Way Nesting, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 278–292.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018MS001359
2018
-Hazelton, A. T., Bender, M. A., Morin, M., Harris, L. and S.-J. Lin, 2018: 2017 Atlantic hurricane forecasts from a high-resolution version of the GFDL fvGFS model, Wea. Forecasting, 33, 1317-1337 .
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0056.1
-Hazelton, A. T., Harris, L., and S-J Lin, 2018: Evaluation of tropical cyclone forecasts in a high-resolution version of the multiscale GFDL fvGFS model, Wea. Forecasting, 33, 419-442.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0140.1
2017
-Hazelton, A. T., Hart, R. E., and R. Rogers, 2017: Analyzing simulated convective bursts in two Atlantic hurricanes, Part II: intensity change due to bursts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 3073-3094.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0268.1
-Hazelton, A. T., Rogers, R., and R. E. Hart, 2017: Analyzing simulated convective bursts in two Atlantic hurricanes, Part I: burst formation and development, Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 3095-3117.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0267.1
2015
-Hazelton, A. T., Rogers, R., and R. E. Hart, 2015: Shear-relative asymmetries in tropical cyclone eyewall slope, Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 883-903.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00122.1
2013
-Hazelton, A.T. and R. E. Hart, 2013: Hurricane eyewall slope as determined from airborne radar reflectivity data: composites and case studies, Wea. Forecasting, 28, 368-386.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00037.1
PhD Thesis
-Hazelton, A. T., 2016: Development and Evolution of Convective Bursts in WRF Simulations of Hurricanes Dean (2007) and Bill (2008), PhD Thesis, Florida State University, 263 pp. PDF
M.S. Thesis
-Hazelton, A. T., 2013: Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Slope as Determined From Radar Reflectivity Data: Composites and Case Studies, MS Thesis, Florida State University, 89 pp. PDF