WORKING PAPERS AND WORK IN PROGRESS:

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. & Menchetti, F.  2024. Causal inference and policy evaluation without a control group. Available as SRRN Working Paper.  1. Interview - Florence Data Science Center. 2. Replication Notebook. 3. R Package. Previously circulated as "The Machine Learning Control Method for Counterfactual Forecasting". [Submitted]

       We propose a novel causal inference technique based on counterfactual forecasting with machine learning to gauge causal effects without using untreated units.

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Paolantonio, A. 2024. Climate Immobility Traps: A Household-Level Test.  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.10764.  Featured in: World Bank's 'Let's Talk Development' Blog. [Submitted]

       We apply causal forests on longitudinal multi-topic household data to open the black-box of climate-induced migration.

• Cerqua, A. & Giannantoni, C., & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2025. Signature Spending Politics. Available as SRRN Working Paper. 

       We leverage Large Language Models to study the behavior of politicians when they have vast discretion over the allocation and use of public resources.

• CLARE: a Causal machine Learning Approach to Resilience Estimation (with T. Kilic,  P. Montalbano, F.Petruccelli)

       We propose a new indicator of household resilience based on the use of causal machine learning techniques.

• Cerqua, A. & Giannantoni, C., & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2024. 'Dead Man Working': a Place-based Approach to Occupational Safety and Health. Available as SRRN Working Paper.  Featured in: lavoce.info, Il Sole 24 Ore, Il Fatto Quotidiano, Radio Popolare, ANSA, Agenzia Nova, Anmil, Senato della Repubblica [Submitted]

       We develop a place-based and data-driven approach for the ex-ante targeting of policy interventions aimed at reducing workplace fatalities.

• Letta, M.  & Nocito, S.  2025. Disaster Risk, Saliency Shocks, and Real Estate Markets: Evidence from the Phlegraean Fields.  Available as SRRN Working Paper.

We explore the impact of disaster risk salience on housing market prices, focusing on the unique case study of bradyseism in the Phlegraean Fields, a vast volcanic area near Naples, Italy. 

        Drop me a line for preliminary drafts.

REVISE AND RESUBMIT

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Petruccelli, F., & Morales-Opazo, C. 2024. Measuring and Testing Vulnerability to Food Insecurity for Prediction and Targeting.  FAO-ESA Working Paper.  [R&R Economics & Human Biology]

       We develop, apply, and test micro-level models of vulnerability to food insecurity to assess and improve measurement, prediction, and targeting.

MAIN PUBLICATIONS:

• Cerqua, A. & Giannantoni, C., & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2025. Femicides, Anti-Violence Centers, and Policy Targeting.  European Economic Review, Conditionally Accepted.

• Barone, G. & Letta, M. 2025. Unlevel playing field? Machine Learning meets State Aid regulation.  International Journal of Industrial Organization, 103175. Featured in: Voxeu, lavoce.info, Il Foglio.

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2025.  On the (Mis)Use of Machine Learning with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1-13. Featured in: Towards Data Science, Data Science Weekly. Apple Podcasts. Replication package.

• Carletto, C., & Letta, M., & Montalbano, P. , & Paolantonio, A., & Zezza, A. 2024. Too rare to dare? Leveraging household surveys to boost research on climate migration. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 51(4), 1069-1093.

• Letta, M., & Montalbano, P.  & Paolantonio, A. 2024. Understanding the climate change-migration nexus through the lens of household surveys: an empirical review to assess data gaps. Journal of Economic Surveys,  Vol. 38(4), 1234-1275. Featured in: World Bank's 'Let's Talk Development' Blog.

• Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M. 2023. Electoral earthquake: local shocks and authoritarian voting. European Economic Review, 156, 104464. Featured in: VoxEU, lavoce.info. Replication package.

• de Blasio, G. & D'Ignazio, A. & Letta, M. 2022. Gotham City. Predicting 'corrupted' municipalities with machine learning. Technological Forecasting and  Social Change, Vol. 184, 122016. Featured in: VoxEU, lavoce.info.  Replication package.

• Azzarri, C., &  Haile, B., & Letta, M. 2022. Plant different, eat different? Insights from participatory agricultural research. PloS One, 17(3): e0265947. Data. Peer review history.

• Garbero, A., & Letta, M. 2022. Predicting household resilience with machine learning: preliminary cross-country tests. Empirical Economics, Vol. 63, 2057-2070.

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. 2022. Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.92, 103752. Previously circulated under the title 'Local economies amidst the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: a tale of diverging trajectories', Covid Economics, Issue 60, 142-171. Featured in: VoxEU, lavoce.info, Il Venerdì di Repubblica. Replication package. Among the Top-cited Articles in RSUE since January 2022. 

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Pierre, G. 2021. Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,  104(3), 1100-1119. Replication package. Paper selected for the AJAE Virtual Issue on 'Storage and Commodity Price Volatility'.

• Cerqua, A. & Di Stefano, R. & Letta, M. & Miccoli, S. 2021. Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.  Journal of Population Economics, 34, 1189-1217. Dataset (updated to September 2021).

• d'Errico, M. & Garbero, A. & Letta, M. & Winters, P. 2020. Evaluating program impact on resilience: evidence from Lesotho's Child Grant Programme. Journal of Development Studies. Vol. 56:12, 2212-2234.

• d'Errico, M. & Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Pietrelli, R. 2019. Resilience thresholds to temperature anomalies: a long-run test for rural Tanzania. Ecological Economics, Vol.164 (October 2019), 106365.

• Letta, M. & Tol, R.S.J. 2019. Weather, climate and total factor productivity.  Environmental and Resource Economics, 73(1), 283-305. Featured in: Phys.org.  Replication package.

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Tol, R.S.J. 2018. Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: evidence from rural Tanzania. World Development, 112, pp. 13-32. Replication package.

OTHER PUBLICATIONS:

• Letta,  M.  2023. Rural resilience. In Dictionary of Ecological Economics: Terms for the New Millennium (edited by Haddad, B.H., & Solomon, B.D.), Edward Elgar Press, 474-475.

• Cerqua, A. & Di Stefano, R. & Letta, M. & Miccoli, S. 2023. COVID-19 and local mortality estimates. Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics.

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. & Zampollo, F. 2022. The Italian geography of discontent. Scienze Regionali, 3(2022), 367-384.

• Cerqua, A. & Di Stefano, R. & Letta, M. & Miccoli, S. 2021. Was there a COVID-19 harvesting effect in Northern Italy? . Published in the volume Regions between challenges and unexpected opportunities (edited by Bernini, C., Emili, S.), AISRe/Italian Journal of Regional Science. 

• Coromaldi, M. & Garbero, A. & Letta, M. 2019. Recovering the counterfactual as part of ex ante impact assessments: an application to the PASIDP-II project in Ethiopia, Economics Bulletin, 39(3), 1844-1854. 

• Letta, M. & Magrini, E. & Montalbano, P. 2019. Spatial heterogeneity in price (dis)incentives: evidence from the Ugandan maize value chain.  Economics Bulletin, 39(1), A49. 

• Colaizzo, R. & Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. 2018. The impact of cultural policies in Apulia.  Factual and counterfactual assessment on touristic attractiveness. Economia della Cultura, Vol. 4(2018), 491-508. 

POLICY REPORTS:

Resilience Analysis in Jordan 2013. FAO Resilience Analysis Report No.11, 2018.

Machine Learning tools for the detection of State Aid recipients (with G.Barone), 2021. Report prepared for the European Commission, DG Internal Market and Competition.

OTHER:

La Dad non è stata uguale per tutti (with A.Cerqua and F.Menchetti), lavoce.info, 2 January 2024

Presentation @ Radio Radicale, 30 May 2023

Il reddito? Dichiarato via Twitter (with G.Barone), lavoce.info, 27 January 2022