REVISE AND RESUBMIT:

• Kilic, T. & Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Petruccelli, F. 2026. CLARE: A Causal machine Learning Approach to Resilience Estimation. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.11292. Online Appendix.   UPDATED VERSION (June 2026). [R&R Journal of Development Economics]         

        We propose a new composite indicator of household resilience based on the use of causal machine learning techniques. 

WORKING PAPERS:

• Cerqua, A. & Giannantoni, C. & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2026. Public salience mobilizes collective action against gender-based violence without increasing intimate partner femicides. [Submitted]

       We use state-of-the-art tabular foundation models and newly assembled data to explore the relationship between public salience and gender-based violence.

• Letta, M.  & Nocito, S.  2025. Environmental Risk Salience and Real Estate Markets. SRRN Working Paper. Featured in: lavoce.info.

We explore the impact of environmental risk salience on real estate markets, focusing on the unique case of bradyseism in the Phlegraean Fields, a vast volcanic area near Naples, Italy. 

• Cerqua, A. & Giannantoni, C. & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2025. The Politics of Signature Spending. SRRN Working Paper.  [Submitted]

       We leverage Large Language Models to study the behavior of local politicians when they have unusual discretion over the allocation of public resources.

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. & Menchetti, F.  2024. Causal Inference and Program Evaluation Without a Control Group. SRRN Working Paper.  1. Interview - Florence Data Science Center. 2. Replication Notebook. 3. R Package.  [Submitted]

       We propose a novel causal inference technique based on counterfactual forecasting with machine learning to gauge causal effects without using untreated units.

MAIN PUBLICATIONS:

• Cerqua, A. & Giannantoni, C. & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2026. 'Dead Man Working': A Place-based Approach to Occupational Safety and Health. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 248, 107672. Featured in: lavoce.info, Il Sole 24 Ore, Il Fatto Quotidiano, Radio Radicale, Radio Popolare, ANSA, Senato della Repubblica.

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Paolantonio, A. 2026. Climate-induced Migration or Immobility? Evidence from Nigeria.  World Development, forthcoming.  Featured in: World Bank's 'Let's Talk Development' Blog. 

• Cerqua, A. & Giannantoni, C. & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2026. Femicides, Anti-Violence Centers, and Policy Targeting.  European Economic Review, Vol.183, 105221. Companion Website (Open Access Datasets). Press Conference @ Italian Senate of the Republic. Featured in: ANSA, Il Sole 24 Ore, Domani, Sky TG24, Il Foglio, Adnkronos, Rai News, Nove Colonne, Senato della Repubblica, VoxEU. Replication package. 

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Morales-Opazo, C.  & Petruccelli, F. 2025. Measuring and Testing Vulnerability to Food Insecurity for Prediction and Targeting.  Economics & Human Biology, Vol.59, 101552.

• Barone, G. & Letta, M. 2025. Unlevel playing field? Machine Learning meets State Aid regulation.  International Journal of Industrial Organization, 103175. Featured in: Voxeu, lavoce.info, Il Foglio.

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. & Pinto, G. 2025.  On the (Mis)Use of Machine Learning with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1-13. Featured in: Towards Data Science, Data Science Weekly. Apple Marketing AI Podcasts. Replication package.

• Letta, M., & Montalbano, P.  & Paolantonio, A. 2024. Understanding the climate change-migration nexus through the lens of household surveys: an empirical review to assess data gaps. Journal of Economic Surveys,  Vol. 38(4), 1234-1275. Featured in: World Bank's 'Let's Talk Development' Blog.

• Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M. 2023. Electoral earthquake: Local shocks and authoritarian voting. European Economic Review, Vol. 156, 104464. Featured in: VoxEU, lavoce.info, Nacho. Replication package.

• de Blasio, G. & D'Ignazio, A. & Letta, M. 2022. Gotham City. Predicting 'corrupted' municipalities with machine learning. Technological Forecasting and  Social Change, Vol. 184, 122016. Featured in: VoxEU, lavoce.info.  Replication package.

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. 2022. Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.92, 103752. Previously circulated under the title 'Local economies amidst the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: a tale of diverging trajectories', Covid Economics, CEPR, Issue 60, 142-171. Featured in: VoxEU, lavoce.info, Il Venerdì di Repubblica. Replication package. 

• Azzarri, C., &  Haile, B., & Letta, M. 2022. Plant different, eat different? Insights from participatory agricultural research. PLOS One, 17(3): e0265947. Data. Peer review history.

• Garbero, A., & Letta, M. 2022. Predicting household resilience with machine learning: preliminary cross-country tests. Empirical Economics, Vol. 63, 2057-2070.

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Pierre, G. 2021. Weather shocks, traders' expectations, and food prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,  104(3), 1100-1119. Replication package. Selected for the AJAE Virtual Issue on 'Storage and Commodity Price Volatility'.

• Cerqua, A. & Di Stefano, R. & Letta, M. & Miccoli, S. 2021. Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.  Journal of Population Economics, 34, 1189-1217. Dataset (updated to September 2021).

• d'Errico, M. & Garbero, A. & Letta, M. & Winters, P. 2020. Evaluating program impact on resilience: evidence from Lesotho's Child Grant Programme. Journal of Development Studies. Vol. 56:12, 2212-2234.

• Letta, M. & Tol, R.S.J. 2019. Weather, climate and total factor productivity.  Environmental and Resource Economics, 73(1), 283-305. Featured in: Phys.org.  Replication package.

• Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Tol, R.S.J. 2018. Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: evidence from rural Tanzania. World Development, 112, pp. 13-32. Replication package.

OTHER PUBLICATIONS AND BOOK CHAPTERS:

• Carletto, C., & Letta, M., & Montalbano, P. , & Paolantonio, A., & Zezza, A. 2024. Too rare to dare? Leveraging household surveys to boost research on climate migration. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 51(4), 1069-1093. Featured in: World Bank's 'Let's Talk Development' Blog. 

• Letta,  M.  2023. Rural resilience. In Dictionary of Ecological Economics: Terms for the New Millennium (edited by Haddad, B.H., & Solomon, B.D.), Edward Elgar Press, 474-475.

• Cerqua, A. & Di Stefano, R. & Letta, M. & Miccoli, S. 2023. COVID-19 and local mortality estimates. In Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics.

• Cerqua, A. & Letta, M. & Zampollo, F. 2022. The Italian geography of discontent. Scienze Regionali, 3(2022), 367-384.

• Cerqua, A. & Di Stefano, R. & Letta, M. & Miccoli, S. 2021. Was there a COVID-19 harvesting effect in Northern Italy?. In Regions between challenges and unexpected opportunities (edited by Bernini, C., Emili, S.), AISRe/Italian Journal of Regional Science. 

• d'Errico, M. & Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. & Pietrelli, R. 2019. Resilience thresholds to temperature anomalies: a long-run test for rural Tanzania. Ecological Economics, Vol.164 (October 2019), 106365.

• Colaizzo, R. & Letta, M. & Montalbano, P. 2018. The impact of cultural policies in Apulia.  Factual and counterfactual assessment on touristic attractiveness. Economia della Cultura, Vol. 4(2018), 491-508. 

POLICY REPORTS:

Resilience Analysis in Jordan 2013. FAO Resilience Analysis Report No.11, 2018.

Machine Learning tools for the detection of State Aid recipients (with G.Barone), 2021. Report prepared for the European Commission, DG Internal Market and Competition.

Counterfactual Evaluation of EU Cohesion Policy 2014-2020, 2025. Report prepared for the European Commission, DG Regional and Urban Policy.

OTHER:

La Dad non è stata uguale per tutti (with A.Cerqua and F.Menchetti), lavoce.info, 2 January 2024

Presentation @ Radio Radicale,  "A territorial perspective on abstensionism",  30 May 2023

Il reddito? Dichiarato via Twitter (with G.Barone), lavoce.info, 27 January 2022