“Going Local: Decentralization, Bureaucratic Capacity and Public Spending Efficiency” with A. Cerqua [Working Paper]
Abstract: Decentralization reforms are typically justified on efficiency grounds, yet their distributional consequences remain poorly understood. We show that a uniform administrative decentralization reform can generate aggregate efficiency gains while simultaneously widening territorial disparities, depending on the pre-existing bureaucratic capacity of local governments. Exploiting spatial variation in the implementation of a major Italian constitutional reform of 2001 through a matched difference-in-differences design and data covering 1998–2007, we document significant average efficiency gains. However, aggregate gains mask a distributional divide: high-capacity municipalities achieve efficiency improvements through cost optimization, maintaining their pre-reform growth trajectory, while low-capacity municipalities concentrate efforts on visible short-term gains and experience an average income loss of approximately €116 per capita. We identify four mechanisms driving this divergence: enhanced fiscal accountability through greater reliance on local taxation, a strategic shift toward income taxation paired with greater leniency in tax collection among low-capacity municipalities, incumbents' re-election incentives, and local governments' responsiveness to citizens' expressed preferences for decentralization. This study provides important policy implications for understanding distributional consequences of decentralization processes and inform their optimal design.
Presented at: LSE Geography and Environment Student WIP Seminar, IRVAPP Foundation, Gran Sasso Science Institute, AISRe Annual Conference, RSA Winter Conference, Séminaire en ligne d'Economie Géographique, Banca d'Italia Workshop, EAYE 2025, Lisbon Urban and Public Economics Workshop 2025, UB School of Economics, Madrid European Public Choice Society 2026.
Published and Forthcoming Papers
The Causal Effect of Municipal Mergers on Local Institutional Quality
Journal of Regional Science (2026), with A. Cerqua and F. Zampollo
Femicides, Anti-Violence Centers, and Policy Targeting
European Economic Review (2026), with A. Cerqua, M. Letta and G. Pinto
Webiste and data; replication package
Presented at: European Public Choice Society 2025, LSE Workshop of Early Career Women in Economic Geography and Spatial Economics, Press Conference at the Italian Senate
Media coverage: la Repubblica, IlSole24Ore, Ansa, Domani, IlPost, Senato della Repubblica
Regional Government Institutions and the Capacity for Women to Reconcile Career and Motherhood
Journal of Economic Geography (2025), with A. Rodríguez-Pose
WP versions: CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19621; WP -Utrecht University, Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography
The Municipal Administration Quality Index: the Italian Case
Social Indicators Research (2025), with A. Cerqua, F. Zampollo, and M. Mazziotta
Website and data
Working papers
Signature spending politics, with A. Cerqua, M. Letta and G. Pinto [SSRN Working Paper]
Abstract: We study how politicians use public money when an exogenous shock expands fiscal discretion. We examine a large recovery program in Italy, where resources were unconventionally allocated through individually sponsored legislative motions. Using Large Language Models to parse thousands of parliamentary documents, we build a project–politician–municipality dataset and match it to electoral and social media data. We show that individually attributable transfers—“signature spending”—yield substantial personal electoral returns for both government and opposition politicians, especially when they publicly claim credit, and can shape political careers. These returns also exceed more aggregate pork-barrel gains at the party or coalition level.
“Dead Man Working”: A Place-based Approach to Workplace Fatalities, with A. Cerqua, M. Letta and G. Pinto
R&R at the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organizaton
[SSRN Working Paper]
Media coverage: lavoce, Senato della Repubblica Italiana, IlSole24Ore, Il Fatto Quotidiano
Abstract: Despite increasingly stringent regulations, there has been a concerning stagnation in reducing workplace fatalities. Can place-based policy targeting help? By coupling machine learning techniques with comprehensive data from Italy, we develop a place-based approach to workplace fatalities. Harnessing accurate forecasts, we construct a granular risk map and compare it to the allocation of on-site inspections and public subsidies for occupational safety, uncovering limited overlap. Counterfactual estimates reveal that current public policies are effective only in areas flagged as high-risk by ex-ante machine predictions. AI-powered territorial targeting can reduce the incidence of this chronic issue while lowering the costs of policy implementation.
Selected works in progress
The Recentralisation Hypothesis in Times of Crisis: the Role of Constitutional Courts, with A. Filippetti and F. Tuzi [draft coming soon]
Abstract: This article explores the behavior of the constitutional courts when deciding about the distribution of powers between the central and subnational governments during major economic crisis momentum. We propose an empirical assessment of the crisis-driven recentralization hypothesis, where central governments strive to consolidate authority and resources. We also hypothesize that during major crises constitutional courts tend to favor the central governments by taking a more centralistic stance. Using newly collected data about verdicts on intergovernmental conflicts and relying on a non-linear probability model, we test these hypotheses for the Italian context. Our findings show that during significant economic crises, the likelihood of the central government prevailing in disputes and their proclivity towards litigation escalates. This suggests a substantial change in the Constitutional Court’s behavior towards recentralization during crisis periods, irrespective of the prevailing political cycle.
Climate change and voting preferences, with G. Valenti [Analysis stage]
Other writings
Femicides, Anti-Violence Centres, and Policy Targeting (2026), voxeu.org, with A. Cerqua, M. Letta and G. Pinto
Fiscal Federalism in Italy Twenty Years after the Constitutional Reform: an Appraisal (2023), with A. Filippetti, S. Rondinella and F. Tuzi, Cuadernos Manuel Giménez Abad, Special Issue 9