MODELling
Example of graphical interface of the web platform for the consultation of the results of the Popillia japonica phenology estimation model implemented on the territory of the Lombardy Region.
DEVELOPMENT OF A TOOL FOR PREDICTING THE PHENOLOGY OF P. japonica
In the GESPO project, some predictive tools have been developed for the rational and sustainable management of P. japonica. These tools are the product of a thorough analysis of the information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of P. japonica, in the different biological stages of the parasite, made available by the Phytosanitary Service of the Lombardy Region with reference to the entire monitoring period conducted in Lombardy.
The first tool developed is based on a mathematical model that allows to simulate the influence of temperature on the timing of development of larvae, pupae, and adults. The model provides quantitative and accurate information about the timing of termination of the larval diapause period and timing of emergence of the adult stage. Both information are particularly useful for planning and implementing monitoring and/or control activities of the pest. The model can also be used to obtain phenological maps, useful to identify the areas that are most climatically suitable for the development of the species or to implement early-warning systems. For more details, see the scientific publication at the following link.
A Web Platform has been developed to guarantee an easy access to the results of the phenological model. The Platform allows to obtain real-time indications about the main phenological events linked to larvae, pupae and adults in Lombardy region.
DEVELOPMENT OF TOOL FOR ESTIMATING HABITAT SUITABILITY FOR P. japonica
The presence and abundance of P. japonica population at a given site is influenced by several anthropogenic and environmental factors. Through the analysis of the monitoring data of P. japonica collected by the Phytosanitary Service of the Lombardy Region, a model has been developed that allows to investigate the suitability of different types of habitats to host larval populations of P. japonica in function of relevant variables such as, for example, land use, geo-pedological characteristics of soils and meteorology.
Study of the suitability of the habitat for the larval populations of Popillia japonica through the analysis of the data related to the presence of larvae in the infesting area in the Lombardy region.
The results of this analysis showed that the probability of presence of the species is positively influenced by the presence of low acid soils, with an intermediate concentration of organic carbon, especially if combined by the presence of sandy skeletal soils. Instead, the probability of presence of larvae is particularly low in extremely arid or extremely humid sandy soils.
Soils characterized by particularly high temperatures or longer colder periods are poorly suitable for the presence of larvae. For more details, see the scientific publication at the following link.
DEVELOPMENT OF A TOOL FOR THE STUDY OF THE DIFFUSIVE CAPACITIES OF P. japonica
The model for estimating the diffusion of P. japonica has allowed to obtain accurate estimates of both the growth rate and the diffusion rate of P. japonica populations in relation to the different types of land use encountered during the ongoing invasive process. From the area of first infestation on the Ticino Valley, along the border between Lombardy and Piedmont regions, a total of 14 spatial directions (from northeast to southeast) were investigated to better understand how land use affects the diffusive process of P. japonica. The results of the model show that the diffusion capacity of the species is positively influenced by the presence of cultivable fields, permanent meadows, broad-leaved forests, and rice fields, while the presence of coniferous forests or heavily anthropized areas, reduced the spread of the insect.