Report
How can we mitigate the negative effects of a potential viral diseas e outbreak?
Infectious Diseases are a constantly changing problem. The world has seen many infectious
diseases in its past. Only recently have we been able to control and bring these infectious
diseases to an end. Furthermore, when a new infectious disease popped up in 2019, the world
thought our defenses would keep it at bay.1 This assumption was wrong however, and we need
to find solutions to mitigate the effects of these viral diseases. These solutions are to use
lockdowns and tracing the infectious disease on mobile devices. While this is happening, we
can spend more money on vaccine development so that we can find a reliable vaccine quickly.
This inquiry will explore diseases in the past, Covid-19, possible solutions to viral infectious
diseases, and what we must do. This is a problem that needs to be solved before we get caught
out again.
There are two types of infectious disease. Both can be deadly. There are bacterial and viral
diseases, this report will focus on viral diseases (viruses).The difference between them is how
they interact with their host and how our bodies fight them. Bacterial disease is when the
bacteria gets into the body and begins to reproduce and take over all of the healthy bacteria in
the body. A viral disease relies on a host cell to take over and replicate. Examples of harmful
infectious diseases are bacteria,fungi and parasites. The most common type of viral disease is
the common cold which is caused by a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract (nose and
throat). Covid 19 is a viral disease. An infectious disease is a disease that we can contact
directly or indirectly no matter if they are a virus or bacteria.
1 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/us/coronavirus-us-update.html
Viral diseases are transmitted in two ways. These are indirect and direct.
Direct transmission is through human to human contact, for example touch hugging, or
coughing on others. Indirect transmission is through contaminated objects or surfaces to
humans There are three important vectors. These are, the agent (virus), host and environment.
The agent refers to the viral disease itself for example Influenza Measles and Ebola ect ect. The
host refers to the target or carrier of the agent such as humans, animals or insects. The
environment refers to the prime breeding ground for a viral disease. It can refer to climate, hosts
habitat and population density. Vectors can be controlled by behaviour, vaccines, medication,
surveillance and lockdown. Restructuring the ways a virus can spread will lower the R naught
(R0). The R0 is the reproductive rate.1 or below is containable, above is an outbreak of an
infectious agent. This table shows the R0 of different infectious agents. Vectors, indirect and
direct transmission and the R0 all affect the way viral diseases are transmitted. This table
shows the R0 of different viruses.
Pandemics and epidemics are the scale of an outbreak. An outbreak is a sudden increase in
occurrences of a disease in a particular time and place (R1+).2 Epidemic is an outbreak of a
viral disease that is isolated within a community or region. A pandemic refers to an outbreak of a
virus in multiple countries across the globe. A current EXAMPLE of a pandemic would be
covid-19. An example of an epidemic would be the American chickenpox outbreak. The word
epidemic originates from greece; Epi=on pan=all demos=people. Epidemics and pandemics are
on all people.
2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_outbreak
Viral disease outbreaks affect the globe in many negative ways. It negatively affects population,
standard of living and society as a whole. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that
a total of between 250,000 to 600,000 people die of infectious diseases each year.3 While an
average of 60,000 people die of other natural disasters annually.4 This high mortality rate is a
good example of how viruses have negatively affected the globe.
Epidemics and pandemics affect society by causing panic and hysteria. Pandemics are closely
related to panic and people can take advantage of this. During the SARS outbreak companies
brought large stocks of facemasks and other equipment and sold it for a profit. Sceptics and
conspiracy theorists spreaded fear and lies about the SARS pandemic causing a lot more
people to die than there should have been unnecessary deaths. A total of 774 people died during
the SARS outbreak.5
The same can be said for the current Covid-19 pandemic. Approximately 2 million people have
died from this virus. Some world leaders acted slowly and some might say irresponsibly
responding to the Covid 19 outbreak. Such as US President Donald Trump has contributed to
this number by spreading lies, misinformation and promoting fear about his own government.
This is an example of people with power spreading fake news, panic, and hysteria worsening
the situation. which likely resulted in a higher death toll.
3https://www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza
4https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#:~:text=Natural%20disasters%20kill%20on%20ave
rage%2060%2C000%20people%20per%20year%20and,for%200.1%25%20of%20global%20dea
ths
5 https://www.who.int/health-topics/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome
Viral diseases have been a problem since man made the wheel. Viruses became a problem
when early humans transitioned from living in nomadic tribes to farming and agriculture.
Nomadism is where the tribe, family or people would follow herd migrations like any other
predator. Infectious diseases were not as big a threat to humans as they lived in small isolated
groups and due to this they lived relatively long lives.
People started living in stationary groups when humans started to domesticate animals and
plants. because of this, humans lived in close proximity to animals. This allowed viral infections
to transmit from animals to humans. The average lifespan dropped dramatically and women
were forced to bear many children just to keep the population. how it was. This is when viral
diseases started to become a real problem for humanity. Smallpox originated thousands of
years ago because of this dramatic change. This is a good example of diseases and how they
have started. Diseases spread due to close proximity of animals and humans in the past.
Poor hygiene standards and Close proximity to animals allow for viral diseases to spread. Wet
markets are breeding grounds for infectious diseases. Wet market traders bring animals from
different areas all together in close proximity. They sell live animals, and also butcher animals
onsite. This allows for viral diseases to jump to different species, from contact with infected
livestock. These viruses are called “zoogenic viruses”. SARS originated from a wet market I
would love to see an example of a wet market. They are like local food stores, in Hong Kong.
The SARS virus went on to travel all around the world and killed over 700 people. We do not
know where Covid-19 originated exactly but epidemiologists speculate that it came from a wet
market in Wuhan China, much like SARS. Places like wet markets and other unregulated food
sources are perfect breeding grounds for viral infections to spread. This graph shows how
SARS entered the general population.
Disease prevention has been a growing problem. New Zealand has a pandemic response team
that is still currently working to prevent Covid-19 from breaching us. As well as this, Each
district has a health board with medical officers in charge. When the next viral disease happens,
they will be again, on the front line fighting to keep us safe. These workers also do work to
prevent diseases that are currently affecting us too. Examples of these are measles, influenza,
and mumps. I think that a district health board is something that should be required in all
countries to fight diseases because of their success in first world countries. Another example of
workers eradicating disease is vaccine development pharmaceutical companies. These
companies spend millions of dollars working to find vaccines for deadly diseases. An example
of this is the months of work going into finding the vaccines for Covid-19. I think that these
workers can be as important as the health boards because of their importance in saving
communities.
To be able to mitigate infectious diseases, we need to have some possible solutions. The first of
these possible solutions is to enforce lockdowns further. This solution is important because it is
something that a government can do straight away. 6 Lockdowns are an efficient way to stop the
spread of an infectious disease. An example of an efficient lockdown system is New Zealand
through March and April of 2020. New Zealand had over 100 cases of community transmission
6 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do
of Covid-19. They set up a 4 level lockdown plan. These levels ranged from level one having
limits on gatherings of over 100 to level for not letting people leave their areas. This lockdown
proved to work, as the cases plummeted. I believe lockdowns have their pros and cons.
Lockdowns have been very useful against Covid-19. They are a way for the government to stop
human contact in person, and effectively, slow down a virus immensely.7 A good lockdown will
limit the amount of physical contact that people have, but still provide them a sustainable
lifestyle. During New Zealand’s level 4 lockdown, people were still allowed to visit the
supermarket and leave their household.8 However, any physical contact with people outside
your bubble was forbidden. Lockdowns are also an easy set of rules for the government to
make public. You can follow the rules set out by the government, and by doing that, stay safe. It
is an easy and efficient way to flatten the curve of an infectious disease.
Lockdowns can also have negative effects on a country. A lockdown when all business except
essential services are closed will have devastating effects on the country. During the Level 4
Covid-19 Lockdown, the Gross Domestic Product value was down by 37%.9 The effects on
small businesses losing money and closing was shocking. This is not to mention the effects on
mental health. ⅓ New Zealanders said that lockdown took a toll on their mental health, being so
far away from everyone.10 I think these negative effects take a toll on the positive effects, but
lockdowns should still be an option when an infectious disease strikes.
tracing an infectious disease can prove to be a challenge. In the current day, over 60% of the
worlds’ population own a mobile phone.11 This large number of devices is a great way to trace an
infectious disease if it jumps from person to person. Currently, New Zealand has a Covid-19
tracing app.12 This app involves scanning into any place you visit such as a cafe or workplace.
This enables the government to see where you have been and if you have come in contact with
the virus. More recently, the government has added a feature to the app called bluetooth tracing.
This feature will send out a text message to the phones of people who have been in contact with
someone with Covid-19.13 As our expert, Dr Bundalu-Thompson said, “If everyone uses this
app, it will make the jobs of public health workers much easier.”
Mobile device tracing may help us in the future. Because infectious disease pandemics do not
strike very often, mobile device tracing is a very new idea. It is an efficient entrepreneurial idea
because it goes virtually undetected to the public. Because almost 5 Billion people carry a
mobile device, this method will work for most western countries.14 Taking almost no time out of
7 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do
8 https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/history-of-the-covid-19-alert-system/
11 https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-phones-are-in-the-world
s-and-tools/nz-covid-tracer-app
s-and-tools/nz-covid-tracer-app
14 https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-phones-are-in-the-world
peoples day, but having the ability to see where the virus has been will help the government
immensely. It is also something that the public can do themselves rather than have the
government sort everything out. Mobile device tracing will be a great method when the next
infectious disease pandemic strikes.
A method of tracing that involves peoples’ devices can have it’s negative aspects. Many people
do not like to have their privacy. In New Zealand, 50% of adults surveyed felt uncomfortable
having the Covid-19 tracer monitoring their location.15 I think that this feeling would be reflected
in other countries. Another way that the mobile device infectious disease tracing could be
problematic is people being lazy. Scanning into wherever you go can end up being too much
work for some people. The amount of people scanning in and out will be much smaller than the
amount of people who visit that place.16 This becomes problematic when a cluster of the
infectious disease spreads, and people have not scanned in. They might have the disease and
not know it. Mobile device infectious disease tracking can be problematic.
The final solution to the problem of infectious diseases is vaccine development. Vaccines are a
system where a few cells from the infectious disease are put into the body. This means the
immune system can build antibodies that will fight the disease next time it enters the body.17
This strategy has been used all over the world to great success.18 Vaccines have helped us fight
over 30 infectious diseases in the past.19 Millions of dollars are put into vaccine research for new
infectious diseases. When the next pandemic strikes, we can have money and resources ready
to find a new vaccine quickly and safely.
-tracing/YPJBUMC6IO5BLPQJUAYLDOR5YU/
v
%20weakened%20or%20inactive,immune%20response%20within%20the%20body.
18 https://www.immune.org.nz/vaccines/vaccine-development/brief-history-vaccination
19 https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/vaccines-list.html
Vaccines are the most trusted method to fight infectious diseases.
This image shows the elimination of Polio because of the revolutionary vaccine.20 We have seen
before the success of vaccines and we know how useful they are. We also have, as mentioned,
Pharmaceutical companies who are ready to pump money into vaccine development. We can
make this system most effective for when the next infectious pandemic strikes so that we can
eliminate it with a vaccine.
Vaccines can be problematic. In the past, we have seen many people refusing vaccines
because of health risks or other reasons. This graph21 shows the vaccine intentions of people in
20https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#:~:text=Polio%20vaccines%20are%20vaccines%20used,be%
20fully%20vaccinated%20against%20polio.
survey
the USA surrounding the Covid-19 vaccine.
This proves that when the herd immunity rate for a vaccine is around 95%, like with Covid-19,
the number will not be reached.22 As well as this, the distribution process is a much larger job
than the process of finding an effective vaccine. These are many stoppages in the way of
having vaccines as solutions to infectious diseases.
These three solutions have their pros and cons. If we have five categories to rate these
solutions, we see their specific positives and negatives.
To be able to have the best solution, we have to combine these three options. As soon as an
infectious disease hits, we can implement a lockdown. As we move out of the lockdown, we can
use mobile device infectious disease tracing to follow the infectious disease and trace infected
people and their close contacts. While this is in progress, we can spend more money on
survey
vaccine research, and distribution. This will be the best way we can mix the solutions to create
the best solution.
Infectious diseases will continue to affect the world. However, we can use our knowledge to
mitigate the negative effects of these infectious diseases. We can use lockdowns and tracing
the infectious disease on mobile devices. While this is happening, we can spend more money
on vaccine development so that we can find a reliable vaccine quickly. This is the best way to
help decrease this grim natural disaster
Works Cited
“(COVID-19) Coronavirus Restrictions: What You Can and Cannot Do.” GOV.UK,
www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do.
“(COVID-19) Coronavirus Restrictions: What You Can and Cannot Do.” GOV.UK,
www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do.
“History of the COVID-19 Alert System.” 19,
covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/history-of-the-covid-19-alert-system/.
“How Do Vaccines Work?” World Health Organization, World Health Organization,
www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/how-do-vaccines-work#:~:text=Vaccines
contain weakened or inactive,immune response within the body.
“Impacts of Lockdown on the Mental Health of Children and Young People.” Mental Health
Foundation, 21 Sept. 2020,
www.mentalhealth.org.uk/publications/impacts-lockdown-mental-health-children-and-youn
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“List of Vaccines Used in United States.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, 13 Apr. 2018,
www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/vaccines-list.html.
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-facebook-survey.
“NZ COVID Tracer App.” Ministry of Health NZ,
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19-resources-and-tools/nz-covid-tracer-app.
“Polio Vaccine.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 16 Mar. 2021,
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#:~:text=Polio vaccines are vaccines used,be fully
vaccinated against polio.
Ritchie, Hannah, and Max Roser. “Natural Disasters.” Our World in Data, 3 June 2014,
ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#:~:text=Natural disasters kill on average 60,000
people per year and,for 0.1% of global deaths.
Romero, Simon, et al. “'We May Be Surprised Again': An Unpredictable Pandemic Takes a
Terrible Toll.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 20 Sept. 2020,
www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/us/coronavirus-us-update.html.
“Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).” World Health Organization, World Health
Organization, www.who.int/health-topics/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome.
Turner, Ash, et al. “How Many People Have Smartphones Worldwide (April 2021).” BankMyCell,
1 Apr. 2021, www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-phones-are-in-the-world.
“What Is the Global Incidence of Influenza?” Latest Medical News, Clinical Trials, Guidelines -
Today on Medscape, 6 Dec. 2020,
www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza.
“A Brief History of Vaccination.” Immunisation Advisory Centre, 8 Jan. 2020,
www.immune.org.nz/vaccines/vaccine-development/brief-history-vaccination.