2011 SJL

2011 Playoffs – Moline Secures Championship

The Moline Greens, answering concerns that their ballclub wasn’t battle-tested because they weren’t challenged during their run to the regular season divisional title, proved the skeptics wrong.   But the victory came hard.  The Greens opened a 3-1 lead in their best-of-seven opening series against the St. Louis Sprockets, lost a one-run decision in game five, and then put the Sprockets away in game six.  In the championship series against the defending champion Aldwych Thanes, who needed all seven games to oust the Durham Knights in their opening series, the decision remained in doubt into the ninth inning of the seventh game, but the Greens held on for the championship.

Opening Series - Moline Greens versus St. Louis Sprockets: Moline ace Tim Lincecum pitched well in the opening game, but lost.  He yielded only three runs on seven hits in eight innings, but Jamie Shields outdueled him for a 3-2 Sprockets win.  Shields threw a complete game.

Moline reversed the result in game two, with Dan Haren claiming a 4-2 win to give the Greens a home split of the opening games.

Resuming in St. Louis, Moline plated a pair in the top of the tenth to take a 5-3 win and a 2-1 series advantage.

In game four, the Sprockets rallied with solo runs in the bottoms of the ninth and tenth to keep the game alive, but couldn’t respond when the Greens’ David Wright hit a solo homerun in the 13th.  With the 7-6 win, the Greens took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series and threatened to close out the series in St. Louis.

But the Sprockets kept the series alive, and gave the local fans a final thrill, when a David Freese ninth inning single score scored Johnny Damon for a 3-2 victory.  Moline ace Lincecum, who started the game, again failed to chalk up a playoff win.

Moline put the series away on the first game back in the Moline ballpark, but needed an assist from the Sprockets.  With the score tied in the bottom of the seventh, the Greens had the bases empty and two outs.  Back-to-back singles created a threat, but the danger to the Sprockets seemed to end with a soft flyball to center by Justin Upton.  Instead, centerfielder Gerardo Parra inexplicably dropped the ball and the tie-breaking run scored.  A following single by Asdrubal Cabrera plated another couple of runs for a 6-3 Greens advantage and the ballgame was effectively over.  St. Louis was unable to mount a response and Moline was headed to the championship series with a six-game series victory.

Opening Series – Durham Knights versus Aldwych Thanes: The opening game of the other first round series offered a matchup between mentor and acolyte.  Jeremy Hellickson was on the mound for Durham, opposing Aldwych hurler Clayton Kershaw.  Until his July trade from the Thanes to the Knights, Hellickson had often sat on the bench next to Kershaw, picking his brain about pitching in the Shoeless Joe League.   Today, the master and the follower matched up well, with both pitchers still in the game when the game entered the ninth inning tied at two.  An error by Durham’s Evan Longoria allowed the tie-breaking run to score, Francisco Cordero closed out the game for the Thanes, and Kershaw had barely edged his shadow Hellickson.

An eighth inning four-run rally the following night gave the Knights a 6-3 win and a split of the games in their home park.

Longoria atoned for his crucial opening game error with a ninth inning single to give the Knights a 4-3 win in game three.  Durham now led the series 2-1.

Aldwych tied the series, barely, the following night.  A ninth inning sacrifice fly knotted the score and a Joey Votto single in the eleventh gave the Thanes 6-5 win.

Going into extra innings again in game five, Durham scored a pair in the top of the eleventh for a 3-1 win.  To continue the defense of their 2010 championship, the Thanes would need to take two in Durham.

The first of those must-win games fell to Aldwych easily, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey throwing eight inning of scoreless, five-hit ball for a 5-0 Aldwych victory.

The seventh and decisive game was more suspenseful.  Four times Aldwych took a one-run lead.  Four times Durham scored a single tally to tie the score.  In the bottom of the eighth, Knight pinch-hitter Jose Lopez hit a homerun to give Durham its first lead of the night.  Jonny Venters came on to try for the three-out save.  Wilson Betemit opened the top of the ninth with a single, but the next two batters were retired.  Down to their last out, the Thanes’ Matt Kemp scratched out a single, followed by a Votto walk.  With bases jammed, burly catcher Victor Martinez cracked a single, Betemit and Kemp scored, and the Thanes had a 6-5 lead.  Cordero came on, recorded three easy outs and clinched the Thanes’ return to the championship series.

Championship Series – Moline Greens versus Aldwych Thanes: Behind a strong effort by Clayton Kershaw, Aldwych grabbed the first game of the championship series, 4-2.  The Greens’ Tim Lincecum continued winless in the playoffs.

Moline evened the series and secured a homefield split with a 5-4 second game win in ten innings.  Justin Upton drove in Ryan Braun with the winning run.

Moline scored three runs in the top of the seventh inning of game three to ruin the Thanes’ return to Regency Park.  Braun, Adrian Gonzalez, and Upton all had RBIs during the key rally.   The final score was 4-2.

Moline moved to within a game of the championship with a 4-3 victory in game four.  The key inning for the Greens was the top of the sixth when homeruns by Braun and Upton, both of who had now played key roles in all three Green victories, both homered.  The twin blasts gave Moline a 4-2 lead.  A Matt Kemp homerun for the Thanes halved the deficit, but Aldwych could get no closer.

With the champagne on ice in the visiting locker room, Aldwych rewarded the loyalty of the Regency Park fans with a ninth inning 4-3 win in game five.  The Aldwych skipper made the unusual call of allowing closer Cordero to hit with a man on first and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, apparently assuming that the game was going to extra frames and wanting Cordero to continue on the mound.  Cordero surprised with a single.  After a Brandon Phillips’ single loaded the bases, Carlos Gonzalez singled home the winning run.  The series would return to Moline, with Aldwych needing to win both games to defend their crown.

Game six was Kemp’s time to shine.  With the score knotted at three in the bottom of the ninth, two on and two out, Braun hit a long drive to centerfield that seemed likely to end the series.  Kemp tracked it down and made a sterling play to keep the series alive.  In the top of the tenth, Kemp singled in the tie-breaking run, stole second, advanced to third on a throwing error, and scored on a Martinez single to give the Thanes a 5-3 lead.  In the bottom of the tenth, Cordero allowed a run, but then stopped the bleeding to secure the win.  The series would go the full seven games.

Game seven remained in doubt until the final out.  The Greens built a 4-1 lead through four innings, the biggest blow being a two-run single by Moline starter Matt Cain.  Going into the bottom of the eighth, the Greens still held a 4-3 lead.  The Thanes were within an out of going into the top of the ninth with a one-run deficit to tackle, but shortstop Rafael Furcal made an error to give the Greens an insurance run.  When Alex Rodriquez homered to lead off the top of the ninth, the Furcal error was doubly painful.  With two outs, Jed Lowrie doubled and Brandon Phillips walked to give Furcal a chance at redemption.  But it wasn’t to be a fairy tale finish.  Furcal made out and the Moline Greens were the 2011 Shoeless Joe League champions.

Postseason Planning: Key dates for the 2011-12 Shoeless Joe offseason are:

Sunday, October 15, 2011 - Annual player purge will be completed.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011, midnight EST - Contractual decisions are due.

Monday, January 2, 2012 - Free-agent auction will begin.  Auction will continue until approximately March 1.

Thursday, March 8, 11, 11:00am EST – Rosters are frozen in preparation for the entry draft

Saturday, March 10, 11:00am EST – Entry draft

Wednesday, April 4 – Opening Day

The order for the March 10 entry draft follows.

1.       Newark Five Spot

2.       Savannah Carpetbaggers

3.       Kansas City Whirlwind

4.       Chicago Cockroaches

5.       Kanab Hotties

6.       Florida Panthers

7.       Ft. Lauderdale Clementes

8.       Hagerstown Hobgoblins

9.       Mudville Slugs

10.   Harrisburg Heroes

11.   Baltimore Hons

12.   Dutchess County Robber Barons

13.   St. Louis Sprockets

14.   Casablanca Usual Suspects

15.   Aldwych Thanes

16.   Moline Greens

All ties were broken in accordance with the procedures in the SJL constitution.

Northern_Standings,_Pitching___W___L___pct.__GB___ERA__CG_ShO__RS__Sv___IP_____R___ER___H___BA___BB___K__WP

 9  Moline Greens             100  62  .617  -    3.61 10  17  4.8 52 1457.1  645 585 1358 .244 554 1259 56

15  Aldwych Thanes             94  68  .580  6    3.72 10  11  4.9 41 1483.1  671 613 1366 .241 565 1196 61

 3  Robber Barons              91  71  .562  9    3.25 14  20  4.4 41 1460    564 527 1272 .232 549 1322 43

 1  Baltimore Hons             86  76  .531 14    3.48  2  18  4.4 46 1479.2  635 572 1370 .244 601 1243 47

 7  Harrisburg Heroes          85  77  .525 15    3.91 16  12  4.5 40 1452.2  693 631 1381 .247 573 1340 55

13  Hagerstown Hobgoblins      79  83  .488 21    3.93 14  12  4.4 42 1455    684 636 1465 .260 537 1358 37

 5  Chicago Cockroaches        74  88  .457 26    4.25  5  12  3.7 50 1460.2  761 689 1437 .254 665 1351 55

11  Newark FiveSpot            64  98  .395 36    4.83  4   5  4.1 41 1442.2  843 774 1556 .272 627 1133 51

Southern_Standings,_Pitching___W___L___pct.__GB___ERA__CG_ShO__RS__Sv___IP_____R___ER___H___BA___BB___K__WP

 8  Durham Knights             85  77  .525  -    3.70  7   9  4.6 46 1458.1  662 600 1437 .256 538 1240 64

12  St. Louis Sprockets        82  80  .506  3    3.79 19  16  4.0 43 1452.2  679 611 1398 .249 519 1238 44

16  Mudville Slugs             80  82  .494  5    3.72  5  11  4.5 46 1477.2  666 611 1396 .246 529 1280 56

14  Fort Lauderdale Clementes  78  84  .481  7    3.96  4  13  3.7 52 1465.2  710 645 1468 .258 631 1110 71

 4  Florida Panthers           78  84  .481  7    3.79 18  19  4.4 29 1460.1  663 615 1375 .247 646 1295 52

 2  Kanab Hotties              75  87  .463 10    4.21  9  11  4.2 41 1440    750 674 1507 .266 533 1134 47

 6  Kansas City Whirlsind      74  88  .457 11    4.64  7  11  4.4 39 1461    816 753 1530 .268 603 1134 53

10  Savannah Carpetbaggers     71  91  .438 14    4.29  2   8  4.2 44 1446.2  744 689 1467 .264 654  978 50

____AB____R____H___D___T__HR__RBI__BB___K___BA__OBA__SlgA__SH__F_SF_GDP__SB__CS__LOB__OP__DP__E__OSB_OCS_PB

 9 5668  782 1530 310 34 209  769 634 1276 .270 .341 .447  87 35 43 103  96  26 1322 163 103 103  73  25  6

15 5796  788 1546 311 23 189  775 636 1261 .267 .337 .426  62 19 46 106  65  21 1344 174  86 104  69  20 14

 3 5605  709 1457 279 29 143  692 545 1158 .260 .323 .397 104 35 46 104 105  27 1235 151  98  85  55  19 10

 1 5669  720 1399 310 48 171  710 663 1320 .247 .324 .409  60 22 31 108  69  20 1278 174 119  94  72  23 15

 7 5616  724 1443 280 42 156  710 587 1341 .257 .325 .405  88 29 43  99 122  35 1263 153  96 111  79  26 10

13 5606  707 1379 248 27 208  696 570 1184 .246 .314 .411  80 30 35  89  65  19 1217 137 115  99  77  28 13

 5 5623  595 1420 278 28 137  588 428 1199 .253 .303 .385  85 31 48 106  56  27 1181 133 102 108  92  38  5

11 5623  660 1369 297 25 196  651 545 1385 .243 .309 .410  52 19 30  89  43  17 1215  90 104 145  82  33 16

 8 5600  752 1428 293 24 199  734 647 1198 .255 .330 .423  94 34 36 121  73  25 1262 177 117 105  69  25 14

12 5559  642 1430 258 23 132  627 595 1100 .257 .327 .383  98 33 41 125  68  22 1299 136 112 117  67  25 12

16 5665  721 1408 272 30 223  709 545 1206 .249 .313 .425  86 31 39 104  47  21 1186 182  93  98  88  25  9

14 5519  597 1305 245 22 126  592 579 1182 .236 .307 .357  83 30 41 117  70  27 1218 142 102 116  71  28  9

 4 5609  707 1438 298 28 154  698 594 1229 .256 .325 .402  88 31 40 112  90  49 1239 162 103  99  72  32 11

 2 5525  685 1371 248 23 143  668 642 1146 .248 .324 .379  91 34 40  97 112  36 1277 154 121 101  63  21 17

 6 5668  714 1440 298 26 153  698 552 1167 .254 .318 .397  75 25 42 108  99  33 1215 172 111 102  92  27  6

10 5636  683 1420 294 26 183  673 562 1259 .252 .317 .411  49 16 45 128  39  21 1241 186 134  79  98  31  6

____________________After_7_-_Ahead__Tied_Behind__1-Run_Ex.In.__v.RHP_v.LHP

 9  Moline Greens             85- 6  8- 7  7-49   30-20  7- 6   63-45 37-17

15  Aldwych Thanes            75- 9 11-11  8-48   29-28 11- 9   61-42 33-26

 3  Robber Barons             79- 2  5- 8  7-61   28-21  6- 5   63-46 28-25

 1  Baltimore Hons            73- 1 10- 7  3-68   18-17 10- 7   56-55 30-21

 7  Harrisburg Heroes         73- 5  6- 8  6-64   23-19  6- 7   58-51 27-26

13  Hagerstown Hobgoblins     67- 3  5-18  7-62   14-30  3-10   52-61 27-22

 5  Chicago Cockroaches       55- 8 11- 8  8-72   31-22  9- 4   48-61 26-27

11  Newark FiveSpot           49- 9 10- 8  5-81   18-31  7- 6   43-66 21-32

 8  Durham Knights            71- 8  9-14  5-55   19-23 10- 8   50-53 35-24

12  St. Louis Sprockets       67- 6  9-12  6-62   32-23  9- 9   55-52 27-28

16  Mudville Slugs            62- 7 11-10  7-65   25-30 12-10   55-57 25-25

14  Fort Lauderdale Clementes 53-11 14- 1 11-72   31-16 10- 7   49-53 29-31

 4  Florida Panthers          66-10 10- 8  2-66   14-23  6- 9   54-62 24-22

 2  Kanab Hotties             57- 8 12- 5  6-74   24-23  6- 6   49-56 26-31

 6  Kansas City Whirlsind     55- 6  8-15 11-67   22-29  7-11   49-60 25-28

10  Savannah Carpetbaggers    53- 8 10- 9  8-74   21-24  3- 8   45-65 26-26

______________________________vs9_v15_vs3_vs1_vs7_v13_vs5_v11__vs8_v12_v16_v14_vs4_vs2_vs6_v10

 9  Moline Greens              -  6-6 7-5 8-4 8-4 8-4 5-7 9-3  5-4 7-3 4-6 5-5 6-4 8-2 8-2 6-3

15  Aldwych Thanes            6-6  -  7-5 7-5 8-4 5-7 8-410-2  5-5 5-5 7-2 5-4 3-7 4-6 7-3 7-3

 3  Robber Barons             5-7 5-7  -  6-6 6-6 7-5 5-710-2  4-6 4-6 8-2 6-4 6-3 5-4 6-4 8-2

 1  Baltimore Hons            4-8 5-7 6-6  -  4-8 4-8 8-4 9-3  4-6 8-2 5-4 4-6 5-5 7-2 7-3 6-4

 7  Harrisburg Heroes         4-8 4-8 6-6 8-4  -  7-5 7-5 7-5  2-7 5-5 1-9 8-2 6-4 5-5 7-2 8-2

13  Hagerstown Hobgoblins     4-8 7-5 5-7 8-4 5-7  -  6-6 5-7  5-5 2-7 6-4 6-3 7-3 4-6 4-6 5-5

 5  Chicago Cockroaches       7-5 4-8 7-5 4-8 5-7 6-6  -  9-3  3-7 7-3 2-8 6-4 3-6 4-6 5-4 2-8

11  Newark FiveSpot           3-92-102-10 3-9 5-7 7-5 3-9  -   7-3 7-2 5-5 5-5 3-7 2-8 4-6 6-3

 8  Durham Knights            4-5 5-5 6-4 6-4 7-2 5-5 7-3 3-7   -  4-8 6-6 7-5 6-6 8-4 5-7 6-6

12  St. Louis Sprockets       3-7 5-5 6-4 2-8 5-5 7-2 3-7 2-7  8-4  -  9-3 5-7 5-7 9-3 6-6 7-5

16  Mudville Slugs            6-4 2-7 2-8 4-5 9-1 4-6 8-2 5-5  6-6 3-9  -  7-5 7-5 5-7 5-7 7-5

14  Fort Lauderdale Clementes 5-5 4-5 4-6 6-4 2-8 3-6 4-6 5-5  5-7 7-5 5-7  -  8-4 6-6 7-5 7-5

 4  Florida Panthers          4-6 7-3 3-6 5-5 4-6 3-7 6-3 7-3  6-6 7-5 5-7 4-8  -  8-4 5-7 4-8

 2  Kanab Hotties             2-8 6-4 4-5 2-7 5-5 6-4 6-4 8-2  4-8 3-9 7-5 6-6 4-8  -  5-7 7-5

 6  Kansas City Whirlsind     2-8 3-7 4-6 3-7 2-7 6-4 4-5 6-4  7-5 6-6 7-5 5-7 7-5 7-5  -  5-7

10  Savannah Carpetbaggers    3-6 3-7 2-8 4-6 2-8 5-5 8-2 3-6  6-6 5-7 5-7 5-7 8-4 5-7 7-5  -

Week 26 – St. Louis and Aldwych Hold On

The St. Louis Sprockets couldn’t close out their race until Friday evening and the Aldwych required one further day, but both teams held onto the leads they had when the week began and will join the Moline Green and Durham Knights in the 2011 Shoeless Joe League playoffs.   The first round will feature Moline against St. Louis, with the Greens having the home field advantage, and Durham against Aldwych, with the Knights having the homefield edge.

Everyone else can begin plotting their offseason strategy in their efforts to join the party in 2012.

Northern Division: Aldwych began their week with a two-game edge over Dutchess.  The Thanes were scheduled for a three-game set against fourth-place Baltimore.  The Hons remained mathematically alive, but their first loss to the Thanes would end their season.  The Hons overcame Aldwych ace Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday evening to remain alive, but then lost the last two games of the series.  Meanwhile, Dutchess County, playing Chicago, also lost the first game of their series, but rebounded with a pair of wins to remain two games back.

The season for Aldwych and Dutchess County would come down to a season-ending series in Aldwych’s Regency Park.  If the Robber Barons could sweep, they’d be in the playoffs.  If the Thanes won even a single game, they’d eliminate the Robber Barons.  Dutchess County jumped all over Aldwych in the first game, winning 8-2.  But the Thanes rallied for a 5-2 win on Saturday night, clinching their second straight playoff appearance.  Aldwych then won the meaningless Sunday game 6-2 to finish with a three-game edge.

With the division title and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs already secured, Moline coasted through the week, compiling a 3-3 record against also-rans Harrisburg and Chicago.

Southern Division: As the week began, first-place Durham had still to clinch a playoff spot.  A win on Tuesday evening, coupled with a loss by Mudville, put the Knights into the playoffs, but it wasn’t until Saturday that Durham finally clinched the division title with a win over second-place St. Louis.

The race for the other playoff was more complicated.  The division began the week with four teams still mathematically alive for the latter playoff spot.  St. Louis held a two-game edge over Mudville, with Florida another game out and Ft. Lauderdale two games further back.  When the Sprockets and Slugs lost on Tuesday, while the Panthers and Clementes won, the race became tighter. But the reverse occurred the following evening, with the Sprockets and Slugs winning and the Panthers and Clementes losing, which eliminated the latter.   The three remaining teams all lost on Thursday, which pushed Florida to the edge of elimination.  St. Louis’ win over Durham Friday night eliminated the Panthers.  When Mudville lost to Florida a few minutes later, the Sprockets clinched a playoff spot.  However the champagne remained on ice because the Sprockets still had a chance to catch Durham for the divisional title.  A Knights win the following night ended that hope.

Game of the Week:  St. Louis kept their divisional hopes alive until the ninth inning Saturday night, despite a threadbare roster.  Trailing hometeam Durham 3-2 going into the ninth, the Sprockets got a leadoff single from Albert Callaspo.  Two successive Triple-A call-ups made out before Bobby Abreu worked a walk to bring Gerardo Parra to the plate.  Parra popped out, giving Durham the game and divisional crown, leaving St. Louis with the desirable consolation prize of a playoff berth.

Needing wins on the last two days of the season to slip past Aldwych into the second playoff spot in the North, Dutchess County sent Joe Saunders to the hill against the Thanes’ Brandon Morrow. The two hurlers locked up in a tight contest, with the Thanes leading 1-0 from the first inning until a two-out, two-run single by the Robber Barons’ Michael Cuddyer gave Dutchess County a 2-1 lead. With the score the same in the bottom of the seventh, the Aldwych skipper gambled by letting Morrow hit for himself to lead off the inning.  The gamble worked as Morrow secured a walk.  With one out, successive hits by Geovany Soto, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, and Alex Rodriguez plated four runs.   The Robber Barons could get only a single runner on base in their last two chances, and the Thanes had a playoff spot.

Stats of the Week: With the playoff field set, it’s prediction time.   To aid in the effort, I’ve summarized some key data below. 

Most of the data should look familiar.  Pythag is the Pythagorean Theorem as developed by Bill James.  PythPat is PythagenPat, an independently developed alternative to the James theorem in which the power to which run scored and runs allowed are raised is adjusted depending on the league run environment.  For the 2011 Shoeless Joe League, in which the average runs per game was 8.63, the factor is 1.87, compared to the James theorem which uses 2.  (To be fair, in his initial work, James acknowledged that he found better fits with factors a little below 2, but the improved accuracy wasn’t enough to justify discarding the convenient square function.)  The results from PythagenPat aren’t significantly different from Pythagoras.

The analysis of the final four weeks yields several insights.  Moline and Durham drifted rather indolently toward their divisional crowns.  Aldwych truly struggled in their final weeks and was perhaps lucky to still make the playoffs.  And St. Louis, after running a season-long negative run differential, erased a part of the deficit in a rush to claim their playoff spot.

What are your thoughts?  Who will be the 2011 SJL Champion?  Your emails will be appreciated.

Week 25 – St. Louis Continues Miracle Run

The St. Louis Sprockets continue their surprise run toward the second playoff spot in the South, an unexpected result for a team competing under their third ownership group in three years.  With only six games to play, the Sprockets hold a two-game edge over the Mudville Slugs, who are trying to reprise their 2010 appearance in the championship series.  The Sprockets’ unforeseen bid has been abetted by two favorable turns.  First, 2011 has been a down season for the South, allowing the Sprockets’ otherwise uninspiring 79-77 record to reside in second place.  Second, the Sprockets have succeeded beyond their run production, currently holding onto second despite a run differential of -34, which is worse than the run differentials of the third-place Mudville Slugs and fourth-place Florida Panthers.  If the race remains in doubt over the final weekend, the Sprockets will have to win on the road against first-place Durham to clinch their playoff spot.  The Knights will likely have clinched their own playoff spot by the time they face St. Louis, but will likely still be playing their regulars to remain sharp for the playoffs.

Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League.  The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.

Northern Division: Their clinching didn’t come easy, but the perennial playoff qualifier Moline Greens will return to the playoffs in 2011.  The deciding victory hung tantalizingly out of reach as they began the week being swept at Aldwych in a trio of one-run games.   But upon returning home on Friday, they beat the Baltimore Hons 5-0 to claim the first playoff spot to be clinched in the 2011 SJL.  Concluding a three-game sweep of Baltimore, the Greens also clinched their division title on Sunday and secured homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Buoyed by the three tight victories over Moline to begin the week, Aldwych concluded with a 5-1 week to add another game to their lead over the Dutchess County Robber Barons, who went 4-2. But if the Robber Barons can take their week-opening series against Baltimore, the concluded three-game set at Regency Park in Aldwych could be tension-filled.  Meanwhile, the Hons stumbled to a 1-5 week, moving to the edge of elimination.

Southern Division: Durham, with a four-game lead over St. Louis, has clinched a tie for a playoff spot.  The Knights will be trying to clinch both their playoff spot and the divisional championship during a week-opening set against last-place Savannah.

Game of the Week:  Moline, trying to clinch the North, and Aldwych, trying to secure the second playoff spot in the North, put on a show for the Regency Park fans Wednesday evening.  Aldwych opened the scoring on a Matt Kemp solo homerun in the bottom of the first.  Moline evened the score when Wilson Ramos drove in Adrian Gonzalez in the second.  The Greens appeared to break the game open with four in the top of the third, the big blow being a three-run blast by Gonzalez, but the Thanes came right back with three runs on a pair of homeruns by Kemp and Victor Martinez.  5-4 Moline.  The Greens again lengthened their lead with a pair of runs in the fifth on a Ryan Braun solo homerun and another RBI single by Ramos.  And again the Thanes got off the deck, this time with a four-spot in the bottom of the frame.  Wilson Betemit tripled for three of the RBIs.  A two-run Rafael Furcal double gave the Thanes a 10-7 lead in the sixth, and then the bullpens finally gained some control over the game.  The score remained 10-7 into the top of the ninth.  Braun opened the frame with a single, finally chasing Kyle Kendrick after three scoreless innings.  Francisco Cordero came on in the save situation and quickly allowed the inherited baserunner to score, allowing Gonzalez’s fifth hit of the game and an RBI single to Justin Upton.  A sacrifice bunt and a sacrifice fly put the tying run at third with two out.  Ramos, trying for his third RBI hit of the game, bounced out to finally end the game.  The locals, still savoring the 10-9 Thane victory, streamed out of Regency Park enroute to the nearby pubs.

Stats of the Week: With only a single start remaining, Justin Verlander’s quest for the SJL pitching Triple Crown still hangs in the balance.  The Dutchess County hurler has a likely safe lead in strikeouts, with an edge of 13 over Harrisburg’s CC Sabathia.  But Verlander is tied with Clayton Kershaw and Matt Cain at 20 wins and trails Kershaw by 0.04 in ERA.  A Triple Crown remains possible, but Verlander will need a good final start, while hoping for Kershaw and perhaps Cain to falter.

There will be no SJL hitting Triple Crown in 2011.  Adrian Gonzalez has sizable leads in both batting average and RBIs, but isn’t on the leader board in homeruns, trailing Dutchess County’s Jose Batista by 15.  However, Aldwych’s Matt Kemp still has a chance at a 40-40 season, needing four stolen bases and two homeruns in his last six games.

Weeks 23 & 24 – Durham Opens a Gap while St. Louis makes its Own Move

As the game remaining counter moved downward inexorably, Durham posted a 5-1 week to finish the week four games ahead of the pack.  With only twelve games remaining, Durham is a prohibitive favorite to claim a playoff spot.  But the real story in the South may be the battle for second.  St. Louis, still fighting hard despite a second-half slide, put up a 4-2 week to move past Mudville and Florida.  The Slugs and Panthers are knotted one game behind the Sprockets, so a great finish may be in the offing.

Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League.  The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.

Northern Division: Aldwych, beginning a season-ending 18-game homestand and facing Northern Division also-rans Chicago and Newark, was hopeful of opening a gap on Baltimore and Dutchess County.  But mediocre starting pitching held the Thanes to a 3-3 week, leaving them with only a one-game margin over third place.  Meanwhile, Dutchess County and Baltimore swapped places, with Dutchess County finishing the week in third and Baltimore one game further back.

Aldwych’s inability to put their pursuers away is setting up a great final week at Regency Park.  Both the Hons and Robber Barons will visit for three-game sets that will likely settle the second playoff berth from the North.  After the successful 2010 playoff run, the London fans are fully cognizant of the pennant races and looking desperately for final week ducats.   The government of Greece is rumoured to be speculating in Aldwych tickets, in hopes of avoiding a default.

Moline, of course, remains well in front and will likely clinch both the division title and a playoff berth early in Week 25.

Southern Division: While Durham, St. Louis, Mudville, and Florida are the main story in the South, Ft. Lauderdale remains just close enough, two games behind Mudville and Florida, that a miracle finish could yet grace the waning days of the current Clemente ownership.

Game of the Week:  Anibal Sanchez of the Harrisburg Heroes threw 8-1/3 innings of no-hit ball against the Hagerstown Hobgoblins on Tuesday night.  With a no-hitter looming only two outs away, Hero 3B Pablo Sandoval rapped a single to center.  Sanchez secured the last two outs to gain the 1-0 victory.  Cliff Lee took the hard luck loss, yielding the only run of the game on a Jeff Baker homer in the sixth.

Stats of the Week: With eight teams still contesting for three playoff opening, perhaps Pythagoras can provide some insight into what might be expected over the final weeks.

In the North, Dutchess County and Baltimore can both make strong arguments that either would be a more worthy playoff team than Aldwych.  The Thanes must see if they can parley homefield advantage into a narrow victory over the Robber Barons, Hons, and Pythagoras.

In the South, it is St. Louis and Ft. Lauderdale who are the pretenders, with Mudville and the Panthers having almost identical credentials for the second playoff berth with Durham.  However, two weeks is much too short a period for Pythagorean equity to be reached.  The games must still be played on the field.

Weeks 21 & 22 – Aldwych Moves Past Dutchess County and Baltimore

With only four weeks remaining in the 2011 regular season, the Aldwych Thanes began a sprint to the finish line.  With a 5-2 week, the Thanes pulled past the Baltimore Hons and Dutchess County Robber Barons, both of whom had 2-5 weeks.  Aldwych now has a two-game edge in the battle for the second playoff spot from the North, although 25 games remain for Baltimore and Dutchess County to begin their own pole runs.

In the South, the Durham Bulls pulled another game in front of the Mudville Slugs, but the big news may be that the St. Louis Sprockets, despite a run differential of -58, continue to hang tough.  The Sprockets are only two games behind the Slugs with four weeks remaining.

Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League.  The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.

Northern Division: Despite the continuing turbulence in the second place standings, the Moline Greens remain unaffected, holding onto their nine-game edge with the season ticking toward a conclusion.  Behind the Aldwych/Baltimore/Dutchess County battle for second, Harrisburg and Hagerstown, despite having records that would place them among the leaders in the South, continue to drift toward irrelevance in the hypercompetitive North.

Southern Division: While Durham, Mudville, and St. Louis are the strong favorites to divide the two Southern playoff spots between themselves, the Ft. Lauderdale Clementes and Florida Panthers remain in close enough proximity that a late season surge could be possible.   The Clementes are two games behind the Sprockets and the Panthers a game further back.

Game of the Week:  The Kansas City Whirlwind may not be a factor in the waning days of the pennant race, but nonetheless thrilled the hometown fans with an unexpected show of power Wednesday evening.  Trailing the Florida Panthers 3-0 in the bottom of the ninth, Whirlwind catcher Tyler Flowers blasted a three-run homer to knot the score.  After Florida retook the lead 4-3 in the top of the eleventh on an infield hit, Whirlwind first baseman James Loney retied the score at 4-4 with a homerun.  Loney then ended the game with a two-out, two-run homer in the thirteenth. Power from Flowers and Loney may not have filled much of the role for Kansas City through the 2011 season, but for one night it was a winning combination.

Stats of the Week: Winning baseball puts fans in the seats.  But exciting baseball helps also.  One measure of exciting baseball is games that remain interesting into the final innings.  Ties and lead reversals after the seventh inning can be totaled and provide the following results:

Aldwych Thanes                                           37

Ft. Lauderdale Clementes                        32

Chicago Cockroaches                                  31

Kansas City Whirlwind                                31

Hagerstown Hobgoblins                            30

Mudville Slugs                                               30

St. Louis Sprockets                                      29

Durham Bulls                                                 28

Newark FiveSpot                                         27

Savannah Carpetbaggers                          27

Kanab Hotties                                                26

Florida Panthers                                           25

Moline Greens                                              24

Harrisburg Heroes                                       22

Dutchess County Robber Barons           19

Baltimore Hons                                             18

One would expect that a ballclub with a strong offense and weak bullpen would lead the list.  Aldwych certainly meets that description, although Ft. Lauderdale somewhat less so.

The Clementes tally is bolstered a league-leading ten games lost after taking a lead into the eighth inning.   However, the Clementes found a way to counteract the blown leads by going a league-leading 10-1 in games that were tied after seven.  It’s been an interesting year in Ft. Lauderdale.

It’s also puzzling that the three clubs battling for the second playoff spot in the North bracket this list, occupying the top spot and the bottom two places.

Weeks 19 & 20 –Dutchess County and Baltimore Swap Places while Durham Pulls Even

There was a lot of movement near the top of both divisions this week.  In the South, the empty suit of armor that is the Durham Knights found their way to a 5-2 week to make up three games on the Mudville Slugs and pull into a tie with six weeks to place.  In the North, the Dutchess County Robber Barons made tracks with a 5-2 week to blow past the Baltimore Hons into second place.

Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League.  The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.

Northern Division: Moline continues to hold onto a likely invulnerable lead,  with a nine-game edge over the new second place team, the Robber Barons.  The Hons are two games further back in third with Aldwych another game out.  Harrisburg and Hagerstown are fifth and sixth, but may be fading.

Southern Division: Behind the two-way knot at the top is another tie.  Ft. Lauderdale and Florida are tied for third, three games back and jostling for position in case either of the frontrunners stumbles.

Game of the Week:  Aldwych, trying to hang close in the Northern Division, had to work extra hard to defend their homepark in a Friday evening contest against Kanab.  Despite taking early 3-0 and 4-3 leads, the Thanes trailed 7-4 going into the bottom of the ninth.  With only two hits, the Hotties had scored four runs in the seventh to take the lead.   A pair of walks by the Thanes’ pitchers and an error by the Thanes’ defense set the stage for a pair of two-out hits to plate the four tallies for Kanab.  In the bottom of the ninth, the Thanes loaded the bases on a double, hit-by-pitch, and base-on-balls, the latter two yielded by Hottie closer Brian Wilson.  A sacrifice fly pulled Aldwych to within two runs.  Matt Kemp then unloaded a three-run blast off Wilson to give the Thanes an 8-7 comeback victory.

Stats of the Week: With only six weeks to go, Dutchess County’s Justin Verlander continues to chase the pitching Triple Crown with good success.  Verlander is tied for first in wins, even with Baltimore’s Justin Masterson at 16.  In ERA, Verlander has pulled ahead and now leads Florida’s Roy Halladay by .02.  In strikeouts, Verlander leads Halladay by the large margin of 26.

Weeks 17 & 18 –Moline Rides Serene Above the Fray

There are nine teams which are no further than two games away from one of three highly-contested playoff spots.  Moline is not one of those teams.  With an eight-game lead over second place Dutchess County and Baltimore, the Greens are the closest thing to a lock that the Shoeless Joe League will see this year.  Moline’s heavy reliance on player development is again showing to be a winning strategy.

Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League.  The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.

Northern Division: Behind runaway Moline is a great race for second place and a playoff berth.  Harrisburg, who began the week with a two-game edge, stumbled to a 3-4 record to allow Dutchess County, Baltimore, and Aldwych, with a combined record of 17-4, to all make up great ground.  When the week ended, the Robber Barons and Hons were tied for second, with the Thanes and Heroes only a game back.

Southern Division: Weeks 17 and 18 were Mudville’s turn to hold the top spot in the race.   Despite a 3-4 week, the Slugs extended their lead to two games when their nearest pursuer, Ft. Lauderdale, went 2-5.  Rudderless Durham was the only team in the South to have a winning record, providing a data point that astute weekly management may be overrated.  The Knights’ 4-3 record pulled them into third place, leapfrogging St. Louis and Florida which are now tied for fourth, four games out.

Game of the Week:  Moline and Kansas City provided both fine pitching and extra baseball on Monday night at the Whirlwind homepark.  Moline scored solo runs in to the second and seventh while Tim Lincecum threw hitless ball for them.  Kansas City finally broke through in the bottom of the seventh, first with a chopper by Jason Bartlett to end the no-hitter and then with a double off the wall by John Mayberry, Jr. to plate two and to tie the score.  The game remained knotted until the top of the twelfth when Kansas City pitcher Aaron Crow opened the door with a pair of walks to the Greens.  Two basehits later, Moline had a 5-2 lead and was able to hold on to win 5-3.

Stats of the Week: With eight weeks to go, there may be a Triple Crown winner in the Shoeless Joe League this year, but it’ll be on the mound, not at the plate.  On offensive side, Jose Bautista, recently traded to Dutchess County, has a six homer lead in the homerun race, but trails Moline’s Adrian Gonzalez in both the RBIs and batting average, the latter by a likely insurmountable 40 points.

On the pitching side, Dutchess County’s Justin Verlander leads the league in strikeouts and wins, while trailing Josh Beckett, recently traded to Baltimore, in the ERA race by less than a hundredth of a run.  Lots can happen in eight weeks, but Verlander has a real chance to secure a pitching Triple Crown in 2011.

Letters to the Editor:  Mudville, confirming that it is the two second-place teams who advance to the playoffs, “I thought I'd note that in 2009 third place Kanab had a better record than 2nd place Moline, but Moline went to the playoffs. I'm sure we'd all remember if we had voted to change since then.”

Weeks 14, 15 & 16 –Northern  Division Looking to Claim Three Playoff Spots

Under the Shoeless Joe League constitution, the last two playoff spots go, not to the teams with the two next best records, but to the second place teams in the two divisions.  Most years, the distinction makes no difference.  The current season is shaping up to be different than most years.

If the regular season ended today, Moline and Ft. Lauderdale would win their two divisions.  Joining them in the playoffs would be Harrisburg and Ft. Lauderdale.  The Clementes would make the playoffs despite having a worse record than the Northern Division clubs Baltimore, arrHa

Dutchess County, and Aldwych.

With ten weeks to play, there can be reversals, but right now 2011 looks like a fine year for the Northern Division, but one that may leave some good clubs on the outside looking in at playoff time.

Northern Division: Over the past three weeks, Moline played a superb 13-4 to stretch their lead from two games to six games.  Harrisburg, with a 9-8 record held onto second place, but with a six-game deficit may be thinking more about holding onto a wild card spot instead of trying to catch Moline.

Southern Division: The top three ballclubs. Ft. Lauderdale, St. Louis, and Mudville continue to swap positions on a nearly weekly basis.  After Week 16, Ft. Lauderdale has a one-game edge, with St. Louis and Mudville tied a single game behind.  With the possibility that only one of these clubs may make the playoffs, this race has the potential to be captivating all the way to the last weekend.

Game of the Week: The Newark FiveSpot have had a tough season, but on Tuesday night they played a role in the pennant race.  Ft. Lauderdale, two games behind St. Louis when the game began and playing at home, seemed likely to gain ground on the Sprockets when they took a 5-0 lead after two innings and 7-3 lead after seven.  But the FiveSpot got off the canvas, scoring six runs in the top of the eighth on a pair of three-run homers by Daniel Murphy and Mike Stanton.  Scott Downs threw a pair of scoreless innings to get the save as Newark held on for a 9-7 victory.  With St. Louis losing to Moline, Ft. Lauderdale missed a great opportunity to gain a game.

Stats of the Week: One of the sabermetric insights covered in “Moneyball” was that, although Bill James found that on-base average (OBA) plus slugging percentage (SP) correlated well to runs scored (RS), there was a strong intuitive argument that OBA should be more highly weighted in the analysis.  For the past couple of SJL seasons, we checked this insight and found that weighting OBA at several times SP did result in a better correlation, although the difference in correlation wasn’t huge.  We also found that SP could be completely eliminated from consideration without a big drop in correlation.  We rechecked those findings with 2011 SJL statistics through Week 16.

First, we made a small adjustment compared to past years.  With a difference of almost four percent in innings pitched (IP) over the 16 SJL teams, 901 versus 867.2, runs scored is a rather blunt statistic.  Using IP as a reasonable proxy for offensive innings, we used RS/IP in place of RS.

First, we looked the correlations of RS/IP to OBA, SP, and an equal weighting of the two.

Well, that’s a surprise.  Not only does the equal weighting have a significantly better correlation than either OBA or SP alone, but SP has a better correlation than OBA.  “Moneyball” doesn’t work in SJL 2011.

A more fine-grained analysis was clearly justified.  We did the correlations at 10 percent increments of OBA, e.g., 20% OBA = 0.2xOBA + 0.8xSP.  The results follow: