2011 Playoffs – Moline Secures Championship
The Moline Greens, answering concerns that their ballclub wasn’t battle-tested because they weren’t challenged during their run to the regular season divisional title, proved the skeptics wrong. But the victory came hard. The Greens opened a 3-1 lead in their best-of-seven opening series against the St. Louis Sprockets, lost a one-run decision in game five, and then put the Sprockets away in game six. In the championship series against the defending champion Aldwych Thanes, who needed all seven games to oust the Durham Knights in their opening series, the decision remained in doubt into the ninth inning of the seventh game, but the Greens held on for the championship.
Opening Series - Moline Greens versus St. Louis Sprockets: Moline ace Tim Lincecum pitched well in the opening game, but lost. He yielded only three runs on seven hits in eight innings, but Jamie Shields outdueled him for a 3-2 Sprockets win. Shields threw a complete game.
Moline reversed the result in game two, with Dan Haren claiming a 4-2 win to give the Greens a home split of the opening games.
Resuming in St. Louis, Moline plated a pair in the top of the tenth to take a 5-3 win and a 2-1 series advantage.
In game four, the Sprockets rallied with solo runs in the bottoms of the ninth and tenth to keep the game alive, but couldn’t respond when the Greens’ David Wright hit a solo homerun in the 13th. With the 7-6 win, the Greens took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series and threatened to close out the series in St. Louis.
But the Sprockets kept the series alive, and gave the local fans a final thrill, when a David Freese ninth inning single score scored Johnny Damon for a 3-2 victory. Moline ace Lincecum, who started the game, again failed to chalk up a playoff win.
Moline put the series away on the first game back in the Moline ballpark, but needed an assist from the Sprockets. With the score tied in the bottom of the seventh, the Greens had the bases empty and two outs. Back-to-back singles created a threat, but the danger to the Sprockets seemed to end with a soft flyball to center by Justin Upton. Instead, centerfielder Gerardo Parra inexplicably dropped the ball and the tie-breaking run scored. A following single by Asdrubal Cabrera plated another couple of runs for a 6-3 Greens advantage and the ballgame was effectively over. St. Louis was unable to mount a response and Moline was headed to the championship series with a six-game series victory.
Opening Series – Durham Knights versus Aldwych Thanes: The opening game of the other first round series offered a matchup between mentor and acolyte. Jeremy Hellickson was on the mound for Durham, opposing Aldwych hurler Clayton Kershaw. Until his July trade from the Thanes to the Knights, Hellickson had often sat on the bench next to Kershaw, picking his brain about pitching in the Shoeless Joe League. Today, the master and the follower matched up well, with both pitchers still in the game when the game entered the ninth inning tied at two. An error by Durham’s Evan Longoria allowed the tie-breaking run to score, Francisco Cordero closed out the game for the Thanes, and Kershaw had barely edged his shadow Hellickson.
An eighth inning four-run rally the following night gave the Knights a 6-3 win and a split of the games in their home park.
Longoria atoned for his crucial opening game error with a ninth inning single to give the Knights a 4-3 win in game three. Durham now led the series 2-1.
Aldwych tied the series, barely, the following night. A ninth inning sacrifice fly knotted the score and a Joey Votto single in the eleventh gave the Thanes 6-5 win.
Going into extra innings again in game five, Durham scored a pair in the top of the eleventh for a 3-1 win. To continue the defense of their 2010 championship, the Thanes would need to take two in Durham.
The first of those must-win games fell to Aldwych easily, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey throwing eight inning of scoreless, five-hit ball for a 5-0 Aldwych victory.
The seventh and decisive game was more suspenseful. Four times Aldwych took a one-run lead. Four times Durham scored a single tally to tie the score. In the bottom of the eighth, Knight pinch-hitter Jose Lopez hit a homerun to give Durham its first lead of the night. Jonny Venters came on to try for the three-out save. Wilson Betemit opened the top of the ninth with a single, but the next two batters were retired. Down to their last out, the Thanes’ Matt Kemp scratched out a single, followed by a Votto walk. With bases jammed, burly catcher Victor Martinez cracked a single, Betemit and Kemp scored, and the Thanes had a 6-5 lead. Cordero came on, recorded three easy outs and clinched the Thanes’ return to the championship series.
Championship Series – Moline Greens versus Aldwych Thanes: Behind a strong effort by Clayton Kershaw, Aldwych grabbed the first game of the championship series, 4-2. The Greens’ Tim Lincecum continued winless in the playoffs.
Moline evened the series and secured a homefield split with a 5-4 second game win in ten innings. Justin Upton drove in Ryan Braun with the winning run.
Moline scored three runs in the top of the seventh inning of game three to ruin the Thanes’ return to Regency Park. Braun, Adrian Gonzalez, and Upton all had RBIs during the key rally. The final score was 4-2.
Moline moved to within a game of the championship with a 4-3 victory in game four. The key inning for the Greens was the top of the sixth when homeruns by Braun and Upton, both of who had now played key roles in all three Green victories, both homered. The twin blasts gave Moline a 4-2 lead. A Matt Kemp homerun for the Thanes halved the deficit, but Aldwych could get no closer.
With the champagne on ice in the visiting locker room, Aldwych rewarded the loyalty of the Regency Park fans with a ninth inning 4-3 win in game five. The Aldwych skipper made the unusual call of allowing closer Cordero to hit with a man on first and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, apparently assuming that the game was going to extra frames and wanting Cordero to continue on the mound. Cordero surprised with a single. After a Brandon Phillips’ single loaded the bases, Carlos Gonzalez singled home the winning run. The series would return to Moline, with Aldwych needing to win both games to defend their crown.
Game six was Kemp’s time to shine. With the score knotted at three in the bottom of the ninth, two on and two out, Braun hit a long drive to centerfield that seemed likely to end the series. Kemp tracked it down and made a sterling play to keep the series alive. In the top of the tenth, Kemp singled in the tie-breaking run, stole second, advanced to third on a throwing error, and scored on a Martinez single to give the Thanes a 5-3 lead. In the bottom of the tenth, Cordero allowed a run, but then stopped the bleeding to secure the win. The series would go the full seven games.
Game seven remained in doubt until the final out. The Greens built a 4-1 lead through four innings, the biggest blow being a two-run single by Moline starter Matt Cain. Going into the bottom of the eighth, the Greens still held a 4-3 lead. The Thanes were within an out of going into the top of the ninth with a one-run deficit to tackle, but shortstop Rafael Furcal made an error to give the Greens an insurance run. When Alex Rodriquez homered to lead off the top of the ninth, the Furcal error was doubly painful. With two outs, Jed Lowrie doubled and Brandon Phillips walked to give Furcal a chance at redemption. But it wasn’t to be a fairy tale finish. Furcal made out and the Moline Greens were the 2011 Shoeless Joe League champions.
Postseason Planning: Key dates for the 2011-12 Shoeless Joe offseason are:
Sunday, October 15, 2011 - Annual player purge will be completed.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011, midnight EST - Contractual decisions are due.
Monday, January 2, 2012 - Free-agent auction will begin. Auction will continue until approximately March 1.
Thursday, March 8, 11, 11:00am EST – Rosters are frozen in preparation for the entry draft
Saturday, March 10, 11:00am EST – Entry draft
Wednesday, April 4 – Opening Day
The order for the March 10 entry draft follows.
1. Newark Five Spot
2. Savannah Carpetbaggers
3. Kansas City Whirlwind
4. Chicago Cockroaches
5. Kanab Hotties
6. Florida Panthers
7. Ft. Lauderdale Clementes
8. Hagerstown Hobgoblins
9. Mudville Slugs
10. Harrisburg Heroes
11. Baltimore Hons
12. Dutchess County Robber Barons
13. St. Louis Sprockets
14. Casablanca Usual Suspects
15. Aldwych Thanes
16. Moline Greens
All ties were broken in accordance with the procedures in the SJL constitution.
Northern_Standings,_Pitching___W___L___pct.__GB___ERA__CG_ShO__RS__Sv___IP_____R___ER___H___BA___BB___K__WP
9 Moline Greens 100 62 .617 - 3.61 10 17 4.8 52 1457.1 645 585 1358 .244 554 1259 56
15 Aldwych Thanes 94 68 .580 6 3.72 10 11 4.9 41 1483.1 671 613 1366 .241 565 1196 61
3 Robber Barons 91 71 .562 9 3.25 14 20 4.4 41 1460 564 527 1272 .232 549 1322 43
1 Baltimore Hons 86 76 .531 14 3.48 2 18 4.4 46 1479.2 635 572 1370 .244 601 1243 47
7 Harrisburg Heroes 85 77 .525 15 3.91 16 12 4.5 40 1452.2 693 631 1381 .247 573 1340 55
13 Hagerstown Hobgoblins 79 83 .488 21 3.93 14 12 4.4 42 1455 684 636 1465 .260 537 1358 37
5 Chicago Cockroaches 74 88 .457 26 4.25 5 12 3.7 50 1460.2 761 689 1437 .254 665 1351 55
11 Newark FiveSpot 64 98 .395 36 4.83 4 5 4.1 41 1442.2 843 774 1556 .272 627 1133 51
Southern_Standings,_Pitching___W___L___pct.__GB___ERA__CG_ShO__RS__Sv___IP_____R___ER___H___BA___BB___K__WP
8 Durham Knights 85 77 .525 - 3.70 7 9 4.6 46 1458.1 662 600 1437 .256 538 1240 64
12 St. Louis Sprockets 82 80 .506 3 3.79 19 16 4.0 43 1452.2 679 611 1398 .249 519 1238 44
16 Mudville Slugs 80 82 .494 5 3.72 5 11 4.5 46 1477.2 666 611 1396 .246 529 1280 56
14 Fort Lauderdale Clementes 78 84 .481 7 3.96 4 13 3.7 52 1465.2 710 645 1468 .258 631 1110 71
4 Florida Panthers 78 84 .481 7 3.79 18 19 4.4 29 1460.1 663 615 1375 .247 646 1295 52
2 Kanab Hotties 75 87 .463 10 4.21 9 11 4.2 41 1440 750 674 1507 .266 533 1134 47
6 Kansas City Whirlsind 74 88 .457 11 4.64 7 11 4.4 39 1461 816 753 1530 .268 603 1134 53
10 Savannah Carpetbaggers 71 91 .438 14 4.29 2 8 4.2 44 1446.2 744 689 1467 .264 654 978 50
____AB____R____H___D___T__HR__RBI__BB___K___BA__OBA__SlgA__SH__F_SF_GDP__SB__CS__LOB__OP__DP__E__OSB_OCS_PB
9 5668 782 1530 310 34 209 769 634 1276 .270 .341 .447 87 35 43 103 96 26 1322 163 103 103 73 25 6
15 5796 788 1546 311 23 189 775 636 1261 .267 .337 .426 62 19 46 106 65 21 1344 174 86 104 69 20 14
3 5605 709 1457 279 29 143 692 545 1158 .260 .323 .397 104 35 46 104 105 27 1235 151 98 85 55 19 10
1 5669 720 1399 310 48 171 710 663 1320 .247 .324 .409 60 22 31 108 69 20 1278 174 119 94 72 23 15
7 5616 724 1443 280 42 156 710 587 1341 .257 .325 .405 88 29 43 99 122 35 1263 153 96 111 79 26 10
13 5606 707 1379 248 27 208 696 570 1184 .246 .314 .411 80 30 35 89 65 19 1217 137 115 99 77 28 13
5 5623 595 1420 278 28 137 588 428 1199 .253 .303 .385 85 31 48 106 56 27 1181 133 102 108 92 38 5
11 5623 660 1369 297 25 196 651 545 1385 .243 .309 .410 52 19 30 89 43 17 1215 90 104 145 82 33 16
8 5600 752 1428 293 24 199 734 647 1198 .255 .330 .423 94 34 36 121 73 25 1262 177 117 105 69 25 14
12 5559 642 1430 258 23 132 627 595 1100 .257 .327 .383 98 33 41 125 68 22 1299 136 112 117 67 25 12
16 5665 721 1408 272 30 223 709 545 1206 .249 .313 .425 86 31 39 104 47 21 1186 182 93 98 88 25 9
14 5519 597 1305 245 22 126 592 579 1182 .236 .307 .357 83 30 41 117 70 27 1218 142 102 116 71 28 9
4 5609 707 1438 298 28 154 698 594 1229 .256 .325 .402 88 31 40 112 90 49 1239 162 103 99 72 32 11
2 5525 685 1371 248 23 143 668 642 1146 .248 .324 .379 91 34 40 97 112 36 1277 154 121 101 63 21 17
6 5668 714 1440 298 26 153 698 552 1167 .254 .318 .397 75 25 42 108 99 33 1215 172 111 102 92 27 6
10 5636 683 1420 294 26 183 673 562 1259 .252 .317 .411 49 16 45 128 39 21 1241 186 134 79 98 31 6
____________________After_7_-_Ahead__Tied_Behind__1-Run_Ex.In.__v.RHP_v.LHP
9 Moline Greens 85- 6 8- 7 7-49 30-20 7- 6 63-45 37-17
15 Aldwych Thanes 75- 9 11-11 8-48 29-28 11- 9 61-42 33-26
3 Robber Barons 79- 2 5- 8 7-61 28-21 6- 5 63-46 28-25
1 Baltimore Hons 73- 1 10- 7 3-68 18-17 10- 7 56-55 30-21
7 Harrisburg Heroes 73- 5 6- 8 6-64 23-19 6- 7 58-51 27-26
13 Hagerstown Hobgoblins 67- 3 5-18 7-62 14-30 3-10 52-61 27-22
5 Chicago Cockroaches 55- 8 11- 8 8-72 31-22 9- 4 48-61 26-27
11 Newark FiveSpot 49- 9 10- 8 5-81 18-31 7- 6 43-66 21-32
8 Durham Knights 71- 8 9-14 5-55 19-23 10- 8 50-53 35-24
12 St. Louis Sprockets 67- 6 9-12 6-62 32-23 9- 9 55-52 27-28
16 Mudville Slugs 62- 7 11-10 7-65 25-30 12-10 55-57 25-25
14 Fort Lauderdale Clementes 53-11 14- 1 11-72 31-16 10- 7 49-53 29-31
4 Florida Panthers 66-10 10- 8 2-66 14-23 6- 9 54-62 24-22
2 Kanab Hotties 57- 8 12- 5 6-74 24-23 6- 6 49-56 26-31
6 Kansas City Whirlsind 55- 6 8-15 11-67 22-29 7-11 49-60 25-28
10 Savannah Carpetbaggers 53- 8 10- 9 8-74 21-24 3- 8 45-65 26-26
______________________________vs9_v15_vs3_vs1_vs7_v13_vs5_v11__vs8_v12_v16_v14_vs4_vs2_vs6_v10
9 Moline Greens - 6-6 7-5 8-4 8-4 8-4 5-7 9-3 5-4 7-3 4-6 5-5 6-4 8-2 8-2 6-3
15 Aldwych Thanes 6-6 - 7-5 7-5 8-4 5-7 8-410-2 5-5 5-5 7-2 5-4 3-7 4-6 7-3 7-3
3 Robber Barons 5-7 5-7 - 6-6 6-6 7-5 5-710-2 4-6 4-6 8-2 6-4 6-3 5-4 6-4 8-2
1 Baltimore Hons 4-8 5-7 6-6 - 4-8 4-8 8-4 9-3 4-6 8-2 5-4 4-6 5-5 7-2 7-3 6-4
7 Harrisburg Heroes 4-8 4-8 6-6 8-4 - 7-5 7-5 7-5 2-7 5-5 1-9 8-2 6-4 5-5 7-2 8-2
13 Hagerstown Hobgoblins 4-8 7-5 5-7 8-4 5-7 - 6-6 5-7 5-5 2-7 6-4 6-3 7-3 4-6 4-6 5-5
5 Chicago Cockroaches 7-5 4-8 7-5 4-8 5-7 6-6 - 9-3 3-7 7-3 2-8 6-4 3-6 4-6 5-4 2-8
11 Newark FiveSpot 3-92-102-10 3-9 5-7 7-5 3-9 - 7-3 7-2 5-5 5-5 3-7 2-8 4-6 6-3
8 Durham Knights 4-5 5-5 6-4 6-4 7-2 5-5 7-3 3-7 - 4-8 6-6 7-5 6-6 8-4 5-7 6-6
12 St. Louis Sprockets 3-7 5-5 6-4 2-8 5-5 7-2 3-7 2-7 8-4 - 9-3 5-7 5-7 9-3 6-6 7-5
16 Mudville Slugs 6-4 2-7 2-8 4-5 9-1 4-6 8-2 5-5 6-6 3-9 - 7-5 7-5 5-7 5-7 7-5
14 Fort Lauderdale Clementes 5-5 4-5 4-6 6-4 2-8 3-6 4-6 5-5 5-7 7-5 5-7 - 8-4 6-6 7-5 7-5
4 Florida Panthers 4-6 7-3 3-6 5-5 4-6 3-7 6-3 7-3 6-6 7-5 5-7 4-8 - 8-4 5-7 4-8
2 Kanab Hotties 2-8 6-4 4-5 2-7 5-5 6-4 6-4 8-2 4-8 3-9 7-5 6-6 4-8 - 5-7 7-5
6 Kansas City Whirlsind 2-8 3-7 4-6 3-7 2-7 6-4 4-5 6-4 7-5 6-6 7-5 5-7 7-5 7-5 - 5-7
10 Savannah Carpetbaggers 3-6 3-7 2-8 4-6 2-8 5-5 8-2 3-6 6-6 5-7 5-7 5-7 8-4 5-7 7-5 -
Week 26 – St. Louis and Aldwych Hold On
The St. Louis Sprockets couldn’t close out their race until Friday evening and the Aldwych required one further day, but both teams held onto the leads they had when the week began and will join the Moline Green and Durham Knights in the 2011 Shoeless Joe League playoffs. The first round will feature Moline against St. Louis, with the Greens having the home field advantage, and Durham against Aldwych, with the Knights having the homefield edge.
Everyone else can begin plotting their offseason strategy in their efforts to join the party in 2012.
Northern Division: Aldwych began their week with a two-game edge over Dutchess. The Thanes were scheduled for a three-game set against fourth-place Baltimore. The Hons remained mathematically alive, but their first loss to the Thanes would end their season. The Hons overcame Aldwych ace Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday evening to remain alive, but then lost the last two games of the series. Meanwhile, Dutchess County, playing Chicago, also lost the first game of their series, but rebounded with a pair of wins to remain two games back.
The season for Aldwych and Dutchess County would come down to a season-ending series in Aldwych’s Regency Park. If the Robber Barons could sweep, they’d be in the playoffs. If the Thanes won even a single game, they’d eliminate the Robber Barons. Dutchess County jumped all over Aldwych in the first game, winning 8-2. But the Thanes rallied for a 5-2 win on Saturday night, clinching their second straight playoff appearance. Aldwych then won the meaningless Sunday game 6-2 to finish with a three-game edge.
With the division title and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs already secured, Moline coasted through the week, compiling a 3-3 record against also-rans Harrisburg and Chicago.
Southern Division: As the week began, first-place Durham had still to clinch a playoff spot. A win on Tuesday evening, coupled with a loss by Mudville, put the Knights into the playoffs, but it wasn’t until Saturday that Durham finally clinched the division title with a win over second-place St. Louis.
The race for the other playoff was more complicated. The division began the week with four teams still mathematically alive for the latter playoff spot. St. Louis held a two-game edge over Mudville, with Florida another game out and Ft. Lauderdale two games further back. When the Sprockets and Slugs lost on Tuesday, while the Panthers and Clementes won, the race became tighter. But the reverse occurred the following evening, with the Sprockets and Slugs winning and the Panthers and Clementes losing, which eliminated the latter. The three remaining teams all lost on Thursday, which pushed Florida to the edge of elimination. St. Louis’ win over Durham Friday night eliminated the Panthers. When Mudville lost to Florida a few minutes later, the Sprockets clinched a playoff spot. However the champagne remained on ice because the Sprockets still had a chance to catch Durham for the divisional title. A Knights win the following night ended that hope.
Game of the Week: St. Louis kept their divisional hopes alive until the ninth inning Saturday night, despite a threadbare roster. Trailing hometeam Durham 3-2 going into the ninth, the Sprockets got a leadoff single from Albert Callaspo. Two successive Triple-A call-ups made out before Bobby Abreu worked a walk to bring Gerardo Parra to the plate. Parra popped out, giving Durham the game and divisional crown, leaving St. Louis with the desirable consolation prize of a playoff berth.
Needing wins on the last two days of the season to slip past Aldwych into the second playoff spot in the North, Dutchess County sent Joe Saunders to the hill against the Thanes’ Brandon Morrow. The two hurlers locked up in a tight contest, with the Thanes leading 1-0 from the first inning until a two-out, two-run single by the Robber Barons’ Michael Cuddyer gave Dutchess County a 2-1 lead. With the score the same in the bottom of the seventh, the Aldwych skipper gambled by letting Morrow hit for himself to lead off the inning. The gamble worked as Morrow secured a walk. With one out, successive hits by Geovany Soto, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, and Alex Rodriguez plated four runs. The Robber Barons could get only a single runner on base in their last two chances, and the Thanes had a playoff spot.
Stats of the Week: With the playoff field set, it’s prediction time. To aid in the effort, I’ve summarized some key data below.
Most of the data should look familiar. Pythag is the Pythagorean Theorem as developed by Bill James. PythPat is PythagenPat, an independently developed alternative to the James theorem in which the power to which run scored and runs allowed are raised is adjusted depending on the league run environment. For the 2011 Shoeless Joe League, in which the average runs per game was 8.63, the factor is 1.87, compared to the James theorem which uses 2. (To be fair, in his initial work, James acknowledged that he found better fits with factors a little below 2, but the improved accuracy wasn’t enough to justify discarding the convenient square function.) The results from PythagenPat aren’t significantly different from Pythagoras.
The analysis of the final four weeks yields several insights. Moline and Durham drifted rather indolently toward their divisional crowns. Aldwych truly struggled in their final weeks and was perhaps lucky to still make the playoffs. And St. Louis, after running a season-long negative run differential, erased a part of the deficit in a rush to claim their playoff spot.
What are your thoughts? Who will be the 2011 SJL Champion? Your emails will be appreciated.
Week 25 – St. Louis Continues Miracle Run
The St. Louis Sprockets continue their surprise run toward the second playoff spot in the South, an unexpected result for a team competing under their third ownership group in three years. With only six games to play, the Sprockets hold a two-game edge over the Mudville Slugs, who are trying to reprise their 2010 appearance in the championship series. The Sprockets’ unforeseen bid has been abetted by two favorable turns. First, 2011 has been a down season for the South, allowing the Sprockets’ otherwise uninspiring 79-77 record to reside in second place. Second, the Sprockets have succeeded beyond their run production, currently holding onto second despite a run differential of -34, which is worse than the run differentials of the third-place Mudville Slugs and fourth-place Florida Panthers. If the race remains in doubt over the final weekend, the Sprockets will have to win on the road against first-place Durham to clinch their playoff spot. The Knights will likely have clinched their own playoff spot by the time they face St. Louis, but will likely still be playing their regulars to remain sharp for the playoffs.
Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League. The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.
Northern Division: Their clinching didn’t come easy, but the perennial playoff qualifier Moline Greens will return to the playoffs in 2011. The deciding victory hung tantalizingly out of reach as they began the week being swept at Aldwych in a trio of one-run games. But upon returning home on Friday, they beat the Baltimore Hons 5-0 to claim the first playoff spot to be clinched in the 2011 SJL. Concluding a three-game sweep of Baltimore, the Greens also clinched their division title on Sunday and secured homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Buoyed by the three tight victories over Moline to begin the week, Aldwych concluded with a 5-1 week to add another game to their lead over the Dutchess County Robber Barons, who went 4-2. But if the Robber Barons can take their week-opening series against Baltimore, the concluded three-game set at Regency Park in Aldwych could be tension-filled. Meanwhile, the Hons stumbled to a 1-5 week, moving to the edge of elimination.
Southern Division: Durham, with a four-game lead over St. Louis, has clinched a tie for a playoff spot. The Knights will be trying to clinch both their playoff spot and the divisional championship during a week-opening set against last-place Savannah.
Game of the Week: Moline, trying to clinch the North, and Aldwych, trying to secure the second playoff spot in the North, put on a show for the Regency Park fans Wednesday evening. Aldwych opened the scoring on a Matt Kemp solo homerun in the bottom of the first. Moline evened the score when Wilson Ramos drove in Adrian Gonzalez in the second. The Greens appeared to break the game open with four in the top of the third, the big blow being a three-run blast by Gonzalez, but the Thanes came right back with three runs on a pair of homeruns by Kemp and Victor Martinez. 5-4 Moline. The Greens again lengthened their lead with a pair of runs in the fifth on a Ryan Braun solo homerun and another RBI single by Ramos. And again the Thanes got off the deck, this time with a four-spot in the bottom of the frame. Wilson Betemit tripled for three of the RBIs. A two-run Rafael Furcal double gave the Thanes a 10-7 lead in the sixth, and then the bullpens finally gained some control over the game. The score remained 10-7 into the top of the ninth. Braun opened the frame with a single, finally chasing Kyle Kendrick after three scoreless innings. Francisco Cordero came on in the save situation and quickly allowed the inherited baserunner to score, allowing Gonzalez’s fifth hit of the game and an RBI single to Justin Upton. A sacrifice bunt and a sacrifice fly put the tying run at third with two out. Ramos, trying for his third RBI hit of the game, bounced out to finally end the game. The locals, still savoring the 10-9 Thane victory, streamed out of Regency Park enroute to the nearby pubs.
Stats of the Week: With only a single start remaining, Justin Verlander’s quest for the SJL pitching Triple Crown still hangs in the balance. The Dutchess County hurler has a likely safe lead in strikeouts, with an edge of 13 over Harrisburg’s CC Sabathia. But Verlander is tied with Clayton Kershaw and Matt Cain at 20 wins and trails Kershaw by 0.04 in ERA. A Triple Crown remains possible, but Verlander will need a good final start, while hoping for Kershaw and perhaps Cain to falter.
There will be no SJL hitting Triple Crown in 2011. Adrian Gonzalez has sizable leads in both batting average and RBIs, but isn’t on the leader board in homeruns, trailing Dutchess County’s Jose Batista by 15. However, Aldwych’s Matt Kemp still has a chance at a 40-40 season, needing four stolen bases and two homeruns in his last six games.
Weeks 23 & 24 – Durham Opens a Gap while St. Louis makes its Own Move
As the game remaining counter moved downward inexorably, Durham posted a 5-1 week to finish the week four games ahead of the pack. With only twelve games remaining, Durham is a prohibitive favorite to claim a playoff spot. But the real story in the South may be the battle for second. St. Louis, still fighting hard despite a second-half slide, put up a 4-2 week to move past Mudville and Florida. The Slugs and Panthers are knotted one game behind the Sprockets, so a great finish may be in the offing.
Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League. The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.
Northern Division: Aldwych, beginning a season-ending 18-game homestand and facing Northern Division also-rans Chicago and Newark, was hopeful of opening a gap on Baltimore and Dutchess County. But mediocre starting pitching held the Thanes to a 3-3 week, leaving them with only a one-game margin over third place. Meanwhile, Dutchess County and Baltimore swapped places, with Dutchess County finishing the week in third and Baltimore one game further back.
Aldwych’s inability to put their pursuers away is setting up a great final week at Regency Park. Both the Hons and Robber Barons will visit for three-game sets that will likely settle the second playoff berth from the North. After the successful 2010 playoff run, the London fans are fully cognizant of the pennant races and looking desperately for final week ducats. The government of Greece is rumoured to be speculating in Aldwych tickets, in hopes of avoiding a default.
Moline, of course, remains well in front and will likely clinch both the division title and a playoff berth early in Week 25.
Southern Division: While Durham, St. Louis, Mudville, and Florida are the main story in the South, Ft. Lauderdale remains just close enough, two games behind Mudville and Florida, that a miracle finish could yet grace the waning days of the current Clemente ownership.
Game of the Week: Anibal Sanchez of the Harrisburg Heroes threw 8-1/3 innings of no-hit ball against the Hagerstown Hobgoblins on Tuesday night. With a no-hitter looming only two outs away, Hero 3B Pablo Sandoval rapped a single to center. Sanchez secured the last two outs to gain the 1-0 victory. Cliff Lee took the hard luck loss, yielding the only run of the game on a Jeff Baker homer in the sixth.
Stats of the Week: With eight teams still contesting for three playoff opening, perhaps Pythagoras can provide some insight into what might be expected over the final weeks.
In the North, Dutchess County and Baltimore can both make strong arguments that either would be a more worthy playoff team than Aldwych. The Thanes must see if they can parley homefield advantage into a narrow victory over the Robber Barons, Hons, and Pythagoras.
In the South, it is St. Louis and Ft. Lauderdale who are the pretenders, with Mudville and the Panthers having almost identical credentials for the second playoff berth with Durham. However, two weeks is much too short a period for Pythagorean equity to be reached. The games must still be played on the field.
Weeks 21 & 22 – Aldwych Moves Past Dutchess County and Baltimore
With only four weeks remaining in the 2011 regular season, the Aldwych Thanes began a sprint to the finish line. With a 5-2 week, the Thanes pulled past the Baltimore Hons and Dutchess County Robber Barons, both of whom had 2-5 weeks. Aldwych now has a two-game edge in the battle for the second playoff spot from the North, although 25 games remain for Baltimore and Dutchess County to begin their own pole runs.
In the South, the Durham Bulls pulled another game in front of the Mudville Slugs, but the big news may be that the St. Louis Sprockets, despite a run differential of -58, continue to hang tough. The Sprockets are only two games behind the Slugs with four weeks remaining.
Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League. The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.
Northern Division: Despite the continuing turbulence in the second place standings, the Moline Greens remain unaffected, holding onto their nine-game edge with the season ticking toward a conclusion. Behind the Aldwych/Baltimore/Dutchess County battle for second, Harrisburg and Hagerstown, despite having records that would place them among the leaders in the South, continue to drift toward irrelevance in the hypercompetitive North.
Southern Division: While Durham, Mudville, and St. Louis are the strong favorites to divide the two Southern playoff spots between themselves, the Ft. Lauderdale Clementes and Florida Panthers remain in close enough proximity that a late season surge could be possible. The Clementes are two games behind the Sprockets and the Panthers a game further back.
Game of the Week: The Kansas City Whirlwind may not be a factor in the waning days of the pennant race, but nonetheless thrilled the hometown fans with an unexpected show of power Wednesday evening. Trailing the Florida Panthers 3-0 in the bottom of the ninth, Whirlwind catcher Tyler Flowers blasted a three-run homer to knot the score. After Florida retook the lead 4-3 in the top of the eleventh on an infield hit, Whirlwind first baseman James Loney retied the score at 4-4 with a homerun. Loney then ended the game with a two-out, two-run homer in the thirteenth. Power from Flowers and Loney may not have filled much of the role for Kansas City through the 2011 season, but for one night it was a winning combination.
Stats of the Week: Winning baseball puts fans in the seats. But exciting baseball helps also. One measure of exciting baseball is games that remain interesting into the final innings. Ties and lead reversals after the seventh inning can be totaled and provide the following results:
Aldwych Thanes 37
Ft. Lauderdale Clementes 32
Chicago Cockroaches 31
Kansas City Whirlwind 31
Hagerstown Hobgoblins 30
Mudville Slugs 30
St. Louis Sprockets 29
Durham Bulls 28
Newark FiveSpot 27
Savannah Carpetbaggers 27
Kanab Hotties 26
Florida Panthers 25
Moline Greens 24
Harrisburg Heroes 22
Dutchess County Robber Barons 19
Baltimore Hons 18
One would expect that a ballclub with a strong offense and weak bullpen would lead the list. Aldwych certainly meets that description, although Ft. Lauderdale somewhat less so.
The Clementes tally is bolstered a league-leading ten games lost after taking a lead into the eighth inning. However, the Clementes found a way to counteract the blown leads by going a league-leading 10-1 in games that were tied after seven. It’s been an interesting year in Ft. Lauderdale.
It’s also puzzling that the three clubs battling for the second playoff spot in the North bracket this list, occupying the top spot and the bottom two places.
Weeks 19 & 20 –Dutchess County and Baltimore Swap Places while Durham Pulls Even
There was a lot of movement near the top of both divisions this week. In the South, the empty suit of armor that is the Durham Knights found their way to a 5-2 week to make up three games on the Mudville Slugs and pull into a tie with six weeks to place. In the North, the Dutchess County Robber Barons made tracks with a 5-2 week to blow past the Baltimore Hons into second place.
Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League. The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.
Northern Division: Moline continues to hold onto a likely invulnerable lead, with a nine-game edge over the new second place team, the Robber Barons. The Hons are two games further back in third with Aldwych another game out. Harrisburg and Hagerstown are fifth and sixth, but may be fading.
Southern Division: Behind the two-way knot at the top is another tie. Ft. Lauderdale and Florida are tied for third, three games back and jostling for position in case either of the frontrunners stumbles.
Game of the Week: Aldwych, trying to hang close in the Northern Division, had to work extra hard to defend their homepark in a Friday evening contest against Kanab. Despite taking early 3-0 and 4-3 leads, the Thanes trailed 7-4 going into the bottom of the ninth. With only two hits, the Hotties had scored four runs in the seventh to take the lead. A pair of walks by the Thanes’ pitchers and an error by the Thanes’ defense set the stage for a pair of two-out hits to plate the four tallies for Kanab. In the bottom of the ninth, the Thanes loaded the bases on a double, hit-by-pitch, and base-on-balls, the latter two yielded by Hottie closer Brian Wilson. A sacrifice fly pulled Aldwych to within two runs. Matt Kemp then unloaded a three-run blast off Wilson to give the Thanes an 8-7 comeback victory.
Stats of the Week: With only six weeks to go, Dutchess County’s Justin Verlander continues to chase the pitching Triple Crown with good success. Verlander is tied for first in wins, even with Baltimore’s Justin Masterson at 16. In ERA, Verlander has pulled ahead and now leads Florida’s Roy Halladay by .02. In strikeouts, Verlander leads Halladay by the large margin of 26.
Weeks 17 & 18 –Moline Rides Serene Above the Fray
There are nine teams which are no further than two games away from one of three highly-contested playoff spots. Moline is not one of those teams. With an eight-game lead over second place Dutchess County and Baltimore, the Greens are the closest thing to a lock that the Shoeless Joe League will see this year. Moline’s heavy reliance on player development is again showing to be a winning strategy.
Reminder: The Wild Card standings on the Scoresheet page do not apply to the Shoeless Joe League. The second place team in each division will be in the playoffs.
Northern Division: Behind runaway Moline is a great race for second place and a playoff berth. Harrisburg, who began the week with a two-game edge, stumbled to a 3-4 record to allow Dutchess County, Baltimore, and Aldwych, with a combined record of 17-4, to all make up great ground. When the week ended, the Robber Barons and Hons were tied for second, with the Thanes and Heroes only a game back.
Southern Division: Weeks 17 and 18 were Mudville’s turn to hold the top spot in the race. Despite a 3-4 week, the Slugs extended their lead to two games when their nearest pursuer, Ft. Lauderdale, went 2-5. Rudderless Durham was the only team in the South to have a winning record, providing a data point that astute weekly management may be overrated. The Knights’ 4-3 record pulled them into third place, leapfrogging St. Louis and Florida which are now tied for fourth, four games out.
Game of the Week: Moline and Kansas City provided both fine pitching and extra baseball on Monday night at the Whirlwind homepark. Moline scored solo runs in to the second and seventh while Tim Lincecum threw hitless ball for them. Kansas City finally broke through in the bottom of the seventh, first with a chopper by Jason Bartlett to end the no-hitter and then with a double off the wall by John Mayberry, Jr. to plate two and to tie the score. The game remained knotted until the top of the twelfth when Kansas City pitcher Aaron Crow opened the door with a pair of walks to the Greens. Two basehits later, Moline had a 5-2 lead and was able to hold on to win 5-3.
Stats of the Week: With eight weeks to go, there may be a Triple Crown winner in the Shoeless Joe League this year, but it’ll be on the mound, not at the plate. On offensive side, Jose Bautista, recently traded to Dutchess County, has a six homer lead in the homerun race, but trails Moline’s Adrian Gonzalez in both the RBIs and batting average, the latter by a likely insurmountable 40 points.
On the pitching side, Dutchess County’s Justin Verlander leads the league in strikeouts and wins, while trailing Josh Beckett, recently traded to Baltimore, in the ERA race by less than a hundredth of a run. Lots can happen in eight weeks, but Verlander has a real chance to secure a pitching Triple Crown in 2011.
Letters to the Editor: Mudville, confirming that it is the two second-place teams who advance to the playoffs, “I thought I'd note that in 2009 third place Kanab had a better record than 2nd place Moline, but Moline went to the playoffs. I'm sure we'd all remember if we had voted to change since then.”
Weeks 14, 15 & 16 –Northern Division Looking to Claim Three Playoff Spots
Under the Shoeless Joe League constitution, the last two playoff spots go, not to the teams with the two next best records, but to the second place teams in the two divisions. Most years, the distinction makes no difference. The current season is shaping up to be different than most years.
If the regular season ended today, Moline and Ft. Lauderdale would win their two divisions. Joining them in the playoffs would be Harrisburg and Ft. Lauderdale. The Clementes would make the playoffs despite having a worse record than the Northern Division clubs Baltimore, arrHa
Dutchess County, and Aldwych.
With ten weeks to play, there can be reversals, but right now 2011 looks like a fine year for the Northern Division, but one that may leave some good clubs on the outside looking in at playoff time.
Northern Division: Over the past three weeks, Moline played a superb 13-4 to stretch their lead from two games to six games. Harrisburg, with a 9-8 record held onto second place, but with a six-game deficit may be thinking more about holding onto a wild card spot instead of trying to catch Moline.
Southern Division: The top three ballclubs. Ft. Lauderdale, St. Louis, and Mudville continue to swap positions on a nearly weekly basis. After Week 16, Ft. Lauderdale has a one-game edge, with St. Louis and Mudville tied a single game behind. With the possibility that only one of these clubs may make the playoffs, this race has the potential to be captivating all the way to the last weekend.
Game of the Week: The Newark FiveSpot have had a tough season, but on Tuesday night they played a role in the pennant race. Ft. Lauderdale, two games behind St. Louis when the game began and playing at home, seemed likely to gain ground on the Sprockets when they took a 5-0 lead after two innings and 7-3 lead after seven. But the FiveSpot got off the canvas, scoring six runs in the top of the eighth on a pair of three-run homers by Daniel Murphy and Mike Stanton. Scott Downs threw a pair of scoreless innings to get the save as Newark held on for a 9-7 victory. With St. Louis losing to Moline, Ft. Lauderdale missed a great opportunity to gain a game.
Stats of the Week: One of the sabermetric insights covered in “Moneyball” was that, although Bill James found that on-base average (OBA) plus slugging percentage (SP) correlated well to runs scored (RS), there was a strong intuitive argument that OBA should be more highly weighted in the analysis. For the past couple of SJL seasons, we checked this insight and found that weighting OBA at several times SP did result in a better correlation, although the difference in correlation wasn’t huge. We also found that SP could be completely eliminated from consideration without a big drop in correlation. We rechecked those findings with 2011 SJL statistics through Week 16.
First, we made a small adjustment compared to past years. With a difference of almost four percent in innings pitched (IP) over the 16 SJL teams, 901 versus 867.2, runs scored is a rather blunt statistic. Using IP as a reasonable proxy for offensive innings, we used RS/IP in place of RS.
First, we looked the correlations of RS/IP to OBA, SP, and an equal weighting of the two.
RS/IP vs OBA
RS/IP vs OBA+SP
RS/IP vs SP
0.815
0.902
0.832
Well, that’s a surprise. Not only does the equal weighting have a significantly better correlation than either OBA or SP alone, but SP has a better correlation than OBA. “Moneyball” doesn’t work in SJL 2011.
A more fine-grained analysis was clearly justified. We did the correlations at 10 percent increments of OBA, e.g., 20% OBA = 0.2xOBA + 0.8xSP. The results follow:
In recent weeks, the Newark FiveSpot have personified volatility. In Week 10, the FiveSpot gave hope to their hometown fans with a 6-0 record in the FiveSpot ballyard. They swept Durham and Savannah and secured three one-run wins. Despite continuing an extended homestand, the FiveSpot compiled an 0-6 record in Week 11, being swept by Dutchess County and Chicago while losing three one-run games. Newark management is looking for solutions to the streakiness.
Northern Division: Aldwych was barely more stable than Newark, riding a 5-1 Week 10 record into a first-place tie and then falling to a 1-5 record in Week 11 which dropped the Thanes to third place. Moline posted back-to-back 4-2 weeks to remain atop the division, holding a two-game lead at the end of Week 11. Meanwhile, Harrisburg went 10-2 over the two weeks to vault into second place. Baltimore, Dutchess County, and Hagerstown join Aldwych in remaining within striking distance.
Southern Division: Despite the announcement that their long-term owner would soon leave the club, Ft. Lauderdale assembled a 5-1 record in Week 11, including a three-game road sweep of Florida whose owner will also soon depart. The strong week gave the Clementes a two-game lead in the division. St. Louis, who had held the top spot for much of the season dropped into a second-place tie with Mudville. Florida lurks another pair back.
Game of the Week: Dutchess County matched zeroes with Hagerstown for much of a Tuesday evening tussle played at Dutchess County. Through seven-and-a-half frames, the starting pitchers, Justin Verlander for the Robber Barons and Cliff Lee for the Hobgoblins, had combined to allow only three hits. In the bottom of the eighth, the Robber Baron’s Nate Schierholtz led off with a double to right. Showing faith in his starter, the Robber Barons’ manager allowed Verlander to bat. The hurler rewarded his skipper with a successful sacrifice bunt, moving Schierholtz to third. Michael Bourn followed with a flyball to medium-deep right. The Barons’ third-base coach gambled, Schierholtz slid around the tag and the Robber Barons had a 1-0 lead. Verlander threw a 1-2-3 ninth to close out his one-hit victory. His mastery for the evening included fourteen strikeouts against only an infield single by Todd Hundley and one walk. Lee took the tough loss on a three-hitter.
Stats of the Week: In an early check of triple-crown candidates, Hagerstown’s Jose Bautista is the early leader among the hitters. Bautista is tied for first in homeruns, third in RBIs, and third in batting average. Two other hitters are also among the top ten in all three categories, Aldwych’s Matt Kemp (tied for first, tied for fourth, and fifth) and Moline’s Ryan Braun (tied for seventh, tied for fourth, and seventh).
On the mound, Florida’s Roy Halladay is the leading triple-crown contender. Halladay is tied for first in wins, fourth in ERA, and first in strikeouts. However, Hagerstown’s Justin Verlander is only a tick behind (tied for first, ninth, and second). St. Louis' Jamie Shields is also in the conversation (tied for third, seventh, and fifth).
Weeks 8 & 9 – At the Third Point, the Races Tighten Up
With fifty-seven games in the books, the races in both divisions have tightened up, with eleven of the sixteen SJL ballclubs within three games of a divisional lead.
The pennant race constriction is most noticeable in the Southern Division. The Kansas City Whirlwind, despite occupying seventh place, are only three games behind the division-leading and tied St. Louis Sprockets and Ft. Lauderdale Clementes. One game behind the leaders, the Florida Panthers are making the pending retirement of their long-time owner more exciting. Fourth place is three-way tie of Mudville, Durham, and Savannah, two games out.
The overall standings in the North aren’t as tight, but the race also features a first place tie. The Moline Greens and Baltimore Hons are tied with 32-25 records, the best marks in the league. Trailing by a single game is Aldwych, with Hagerstown one more game out in fourth. The only SJL team to trail by double digits is the Newark Five Spot which struggled early and trail the pack in the North, eleven games out.
Game of the Week: St. Louis and Harrisburg began the week with a Monday evening extra-inning barnburner at the Heroes’ homepark. Harrisburg strung together a series of basehits in the bottom of the first to fashion an early three-run lead. The Sprockets came right back with a pair of runs on a Bobby Abreu double. The Heroes re-extended the lead to 5-2 on a two-run blast by Miguel Montero in the third. St. Louis responded immediately with four runs, with the big blow being a three-run dinger by the struggling Albert Pujols.
With the Sprockets leading 6-5, both offenses took breathers until the bottom of the sixth when the Heroes knotted the score at 6-all on a Prince Fielder single. St. Louis again replied immediately, with RBIs from Abreu and Pujols to take an 8-6 lead in the seventh.
The Sprockets still led by the same score in the ninth when they brought on Carlos Marmol to try for the save. With one out, Colby Rasmus and Montero hit back-to-back homers for the Heroes to again tie the score and push the game into extra innings
Harrisburg’s bullpen was wearing thin by the time the game entered extra frames. A new minor league call-up had managed to keep the Sprockets off the scoreboard in the ninth and then succeeded again in the tenth. But when another new call-up entered the game for the eleventh, Harrisburg’s good fortune wore out. An Abreu double, sacrifice bunt by pitcher Joey Devine, and a scratch single by Pujols gave the Sprockets a 9-8 lead. Devine allowed a walk in the bottom of the eleventh, but then secured the third out to nail down the win for St. Louis.
Stats of the Week: With the tight races, a check of luck, using our old friend the Pythagorean Theorem, seemed a good way to spot which teams might have the horses to pull away from the ties. The results are below, ordered with the unluckiest clubs on top.
Weeks 10 &11 – Despite Last Place Standing, Newark Offers Hints of Hope, Then Despair
As in past years, the best correlation results when OBA has a greater weighting than SP. However, the unexpected result that correlation plummets when SP is excluded persists. To check for anomalies, we added a 95% OBA correlation. The result still seems to fall on a smooth curve. For some reason, SP has a greater influence on RS than in past SJL years. It remains less significant that OBA, but its exclusion badly undermines the correlation.
This is probably just a part-season anomaly, but we’ll add it to the list of topics worthy of additional study when time permits.
Having gone this far, we asked one final question. Using the RS/IP equation that results at the peak correlation, which teams that have most dramatically out-performed or under-performed relative to their predicted performance? Checking the slope and intercept for the correlation and computing predicted RS/IP, we find that St. Louis has out-performed their OBA and SP by almost 30 runs. Other teams that have out-performed by 20 or more runs are Chicago, Moline, and Savannah.
On the under-perform side, there are more teams but with less amounts of under-performance. The under-performance leader is Kansas City at 23 runs below predicted. Harrisburg is the only other team to have under-performed by at least 20 runs.
It’s reasonable to assume that out-performance and under-performance are the result of luck, although it would be the final assumption on top of a teetering stack of assumptions. If luck is the correct assumption, then St. Louis, Chicago, Moline, and Savannah are due for reduced offensive efficiency, while Kansas City and Harrisburg may take a step up in the final weeks of the season.
Weeks 12 &13 –Southern Division in a Three-Way Knot
With 7-5 records over weeks 12 & 13, St. Louis and Mudville caught Ft. Lauderdale and created a flat-footed tie at the top of the Southern Division standings. Florida also made a move toward the top, with an 8-4 two-week record leaving the Panthers only a game back.
Northern Division: Moline had a 7-5 record over weeks 12 & 13, but no one close behind made a move, so the Greens continue to hold a two-game lead. Harrisburg remains in second, but Dutchess County went 8-4 to catch Baltimore in a tie for third, with Aldwych sagging to fifth.
Southern Division: The race for the top spot in the second division is nearly as tight as in the first division. Savannah is hanging onto fifth place, but Kansas City and Kanab are only a game back, with Durham only two back.
Game of the Week: Chicago took a 5-3 lead into the top of the ninth on Wednesday against visiting Harrisburg. The Heroes’ Colby Rasmus hit a routine grounder to Cockroach second baseman Daniel Descalso. The grounder went right through Descalso’s legs, bringing the tying run to the plate in the person of Adam Jones. Moments later, Jones had tied the game with a long homerun to center. When Jose Reyes drove in another run with a two-out infield single, the Heroes had a 6-5 lead to protect.
Andrew Bailey came on to try for the save. He yielded a one-out walk, but retired Grady Sizemore on a line drive to short for the final out. The Heroes had stolen a game from the Cockroaches, thanks to a grounder misplayed by Descalso.
Stats of the Week: Presumably this has happened before, but the author didn’t notice it until this week. The Shoeless Joe League has a player on the leader board who is shown as a member of Team 0, a synonym for the SJL waiver wire. Jonathon Broxton collected eight early saves, but was then released when an elbow problem threatened to end his season. Despite his unemployed status, he remains 12th in the league in saves.
We’ve reached the thirty game mark of the 2011 season. Perhaps the biggest early season surprise is the Durham Knights. With a 4-8 record over the last two weeks, the Knights, perennial contenders in the Southern Division, have fallen to 15-15, five games off the pace and in sole possession of fifth place. The Knights’ pitching remains strong with a 3.32 ERA, but the offense has been struggling. Durham’s 106 runs are in 12th place among the sixteen SJL clubs and are only three runs ahead of 15th place. The Knights’ lineup has been wracked with injuries, losing Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and Josh Hamilton to extended absences. With 132 games still to place, the Knights can yet get back in the race, but need to get healthy first.
Northern Division: Moline continues to hang onto the top spot, but is now sharing first with Aldwych. Hagerstown has climbed past Baltimore into third, with Harrisburg holding steady in fifth.
Southern Division: St. Louis continues to be the early surprise, with an 8-4 record over weeks 4 and 5 pushing them to a four-game edge. Savannah, Ft. Lauderdale, and Kansas City are all claiming a part of second place.
Games of the Week: As first reported by Savannah, the Florida Panthers’ Francisco Liriano pitched the first no-hitter of the 2011 SJL when he shut down Savannah Saturday afternoon at the Panthers’ homepark. After early season struggles, Liriano pitched efficiently and effectively. It wasn’t a dominant effort, with five walks against only four strikeouts, but Liriano got the outs he needed, including a strikeout of Peter Bourjos with two outs in the second after the bases were loaded by an error and a pair of free passes. Except for the possible no-hitter, the Panthers offense quickly removed all suspense from the game, with a 7-0 lead after three enroute to a 15-0 final tally. With the Panthers’ fans on their feet, Liriano retired Mike Napoli, Alex Rios, and Jhonny Peralta in order in the ninth to conclude his afternoon and to let the celebration begin.
The Saturday no-hitter was the second exceptional game of the weekend, with Aldwych and Chicago playing one of the longest games in SJL history Friday evening. The Thanes took a 4-3 lead into the top of the ninth in front of the Regency Park fans. For the second time in three games, Jon Broxton lost the save, this one slipping away on a walk, sac bunt, and single. With score knotted, the long bullpen-burning march to midnight began. The Thanes loaded the bases with one out in the bottom of the 14th, but neither ARod nor Aaron Rowand could bring the game-winning run across. Finally, in the top of the 18th, Kila Ka’aihue misplayed a Vladimir Guerrero grounder, giving the Cockroaches a 5-4 lead. Jason Heyward then put the game out of reach with a three-run blast to make the score 8-4. Bud Norris, with three innings of scoreless relief claimed the win, with Aneury Rodriguez, as the seventh Roach pitcher of the night, got the save.
Stats of the Week: St. Louis continuing early-season dominance of the Southern Division is being driven by success on the mound. Over weeks 4 and 5, the Sprockets accumulated an ERA of 1.54, to drop their season ERA to 2.13. The key to the St. Louis pitching success is staying around the plate. Their 211 strikeouts in only tied for tenth in the league, but their 80 walks lead the league by almost twenty.
Another St. Louis key is late inning success. The Cockroaches have rallied for four late-game come-from-behind victories, while not blowing any of 16 late game leads.
Lastly, perhaps sometimes it’s better to stop at second base. Kanab has accumulated the odd combination of placing 15th in the league in doubles while leading the league in triples. With this mystifying combination, the Hotties have stumbled to a 10-20 record and the basement of the Southern Division.
In the North, the analysis only muddies the water further. Moline and Baltimore are close to neutral luck, but next four clubs in the standings, Aldwych, Hagerstown, Harrisburg, and Dutchess County, have all been unlucky by approximately the amount of their games behind. Dutchess County has been the unluckiest club in all of the Shoeless Joe League. This division could be a season-long donnybrook.
In the South, the front-runners, St. Louis and Ft. Lauderdale both looked primed for a return to earth, with Florida and Mudville both having the potential to jump into the top spots.
Pythagoras is not destiny, but the analysis is always interesting.
Weeks 6-7 – Steaming Toward Summer
As the baseball season moves toward Memorial Day and the beginning of summer, only small changes are occurring in the Shoeless Joe divisional races. In the South, St. Louis, despite trailing all of the Shoeless Joe League in runs scored, continues to lead the division. Durham, shaking off a slow start, went 8-4 over the past two weeks to pull into second. Florida, perhaps motivated by the impending departure of their long-term owner, also moved up, joining Kansas City in a tie for third.
In the North, Moline assumed sole ownership of first place, but Aldwych stayed close in second. Behind the Thanes, Baltimore and Hagerstown swapped positions, with the Hons now holding third.
Game of the Week: Tuesday evening in Florida, the Hobgoblins and Panthers had quick offensive starts, with the teams knotted at 3-3 after 2-1/2 innings. The offenses then stalled as the game remained 3-3 into the eleventh inning. Chris Young opened the bottom of the eleventh with a double. After Carlos Pena failed in a sacrifice attempt, Melky Cabrera came on as a pinch-hitter against Darren Oliver. A line drive double over the head of centerfielder Julio Borbon allowed Young to easily plate the winning run. Sergio Santos claimed the win with two scoreless innings of relief.
Stats of the Week: The anomaly of St. Louis leading the South while trailing all SJL in runs scored caused us to take a look at won-loss records versus runs scored and runs allowed. Oddly, the North standings seemed aligned with runs scored, while the South seemed aligned with runs allowed.
To check this impression, we did a simple correlation, by division, of wins scored versus runs scored, runs allowed, and run differential. (For clarity, the sign of the runs allowed correlation, which is expected to an inverse relationship, is reversed.)
Division Corr vs. RS Corr vs. RA Corr vs. RDif
North 88% 44% 80%
South -38% 83% 39%
Our initial observation is largely confirmed. Runs scored govern in the North. In the South, a similarly high correlation is with runs allowed. But the real surprise is the negative correlation between runs scored and wins in the South. Scoring more runs, at least through the first seven weeks, had resulted in fewer wins. It is certainly anticipated that the result will return to normal as the season progresses, but it was also anticipated that such an unusual correlation wouldn’t survive through seven weeks.
In large part because of the runs scored anomaly in the South, even the correlation with run differential in the South is far less than expected. And in the North, the relatively low correlation with runs allowed resulted in the run differential correlation being below the runs scored correlation. Odd, odd results.
Weeks 4-5 – Pennant Races Taking Shape
Northern Division: Moline has parlayed strong pitching to a 14-4 record and a position in first place. Aldwych has rode hitting to second, a game out. Baltimore is two games further back, with Hagerstown and Harrisburg holding onto fourth and fifth.
Southern Division: St. Louis is the early surprise, with a 12-6 record claiming a one-game lead over Durham. Behind the Knights, Florida is two games out and Savannah three, with Ft. Lauderdale and Kansas City tied for fifth four games back.
Game of the Week: Aldwych and Chicago played a wild one on Friday. The spring wind must have been blowing out of the Chicago ballpark. Jed Lowrie, as a part of his fast start, hit solo homeruns in the first, third, and fifth innings to stake the Thanes to a 3-1 lead. Victor Martinez expanded the Aldwych lead to 6-1 with a three-run blast also in the top of the fifth. But the Cockroaches had a rally in them. They scored four times in the seventh with six basehits and a sac fly. The Thanes came right back with four of their own on a long skein of basehits, including a Lowrie single for his fourth RBI of the night. Chicago tightened up game again with a two-run homerun from Grady Sizemore in the bottom of the eighth, but the scoring was finally over and Aldwych had a 10-7 victory. Jonathon Broxton secured the final out for the save and the long-departed starter Jeremy Hellickson got the win.
Stats of the Week: In the early season, the individual statistical leaders are often surprising and soon to be forgotten. But in 2011, it is the team statistics that provide the greater surprising. The Moline Greens have built their early divisional lead on extraordinarily strong pitching. After 18 games, the team ERA is only 2.06. Only 42 runs have been scored against them. Second place is St. Louis with 56 runs against, almost a full run per game more.
Right behind the Greens are their offensive equivalents, the Aldwych Thanes. The Thanes, leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, have scored 123 runs, 1.4 runs per game more than runner-up Moline.
Also, full marks go to Scoresheet for the early season batting crown standings. Matt Kemp is in first at .469, with Jed Lowrie in second at .533. If those standings look anomalous, it is because Scoresheet has implemented the rule about hitters who have fewer than the minimum number of plate appearances required to qualify for the batting crown. Nicely done.
The first three weeks of the 2011 Shoeless Joe League season are in the books. With 18 games played by all teams, the standings show much similarity to the final 2010 standings. In the North, Moline and Aldwych are first and second, exactly as they finished last year. In the South, the 2010 division champion Durham Knights are in second and would be in the playoffs if the season ended now. The only 2010 playoff team off to a slow start is Mudville, which has slipped to seventh place with an early 7-11 record. The newcomer near the top of the standings is the St. Louis Sprockets, which, despite playing under their third owner in three years, has staked an early claim on the top spot in the South.
Weeks 1-3 - The New Season is Underway