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The most important chart is the bond market, it dwarfs the stock market.
In a falling stock market people initially put their money into the bond market for safety.
Then when they perceive that the stock market has bottomed they take the money out of the bond market and put it back on risk in the stock market.
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Thought of the day - GREED KILLS !!!!!
Watch the first 15 opening range. I mark the High and Low and Midline for this first 15 min. You can visibly see how the Institutional Algos harness and control that Midline price. If they support it, price heads higher for 45min. If they reject that Midline price, price heads lower for 45 min. Simple. Repeatable on a daily basis. Check it out.
QQQ Long Channel - Possible QQQ buy at 281
BIG QQQ CHANNEL <---------------
support resistance
on a short term swing setup, we are under 5 DMA, so rips will be sold until we can regain price above 5DMA. Internals were mixed, Friday's LOD is key level to watch. selling to continue if that level fails to hold.
SPY 5 day simple ma select 5day chart and zoom all the way out.
SPY Weekly with 20ema
The galaxy brain reveal is that VIX really measures dealer risk appetite. They are the OOM option writers. When they are selling volatility (Risk on), VIX gets bled out. When they are buying volatility (Risk off), VIX moves up.
nce 1990, the VIX has risen an average of 2.9% on the Monday after options expiration. Looking at all five days of the week, the VIX has posted a mean daily increase of 0.16% since 1990.If you back out those Mondays following options expiration, however, the remaining increase is a mere 0.02% per day, meaning that these post-expiration Mondays have accounted for almost all of the cumulative upside movement in the VIX over the past 17 years. One statistic that I found particularly interesting is that 80% of the VIX gains on typical post-expiration Mondays and 90% of the gains following quadruple witching expirations are, on average, reversed in the course of the next three days. So the next time you see a post-expiration bump in the VIX, expect that by the following Thursday almost all of the move will have evaporated.
Cobra said, "If you're still thinking of BTFD (buying the F dip), better wait for a higher low (2nd test of the previous low) first."
New Rule: Buy UVXY on the 15th to 19th of the month, a few days before expiry, and sell UVXY after 2-4 days. VIX will start to rise first and UVXY may still fall a little. Buy the close. And don't buy UVXY when all the intra day and daily emas are still heading down!
My short term swing will buy next dip along with intraday as long as the dip is above 5 DMA.
First break of the 50ma bounces off the 100ma so buy the 100ma. If it breaks through the 50ma hold, otherwise if it fails sell there.
First break of the 100ma bounces off the 200ma so buy the 200ma. If it breaks through the 100ma hold, otherwise if it fails sell there.
Predicted: Actual:
BUY SELL RULES with BB
BUY SELL RULES with BB and MACD
Put call ratio - everyones a bull!
SPX Analysis:
Never short a dull market - 20 SPX points = 1 SPXU
BEST SPY DAILY 50SMA 200SMA death cross and target line <********** USE THIS
Above the Green Line and Money wave chart
Best $SPX Weekly 12SMA 41SMA 200SMA ************ Death Cross
Simple long term buy sell strategy
$SPX BOLLINGER BOTTOM THEN MIDDLE
Ichimoku with support and resistance
$SPX 15MIN ************************ USE THIS!!!!
$SPX 1HOUR with 3 lines *****
SH 1Hour with 3 lines 30.8 TARGET
VIX MOST USEFUL EMAs and CHANNEL
VXX 20EMA 170EMA < ************************ USE THIS!!!!
Best Daily VXX chart < ************************ USE THIS!!!!
Cobras 10ema and 20ema best for day trading!
SPX sold off when the 3sma crossed the 29sma (Joanne Klien 60min intra day chart)
SPX 5ma 10ma and 20ma Market sold off when the 5ma and the 20ma crossed
SPX Correction Targets 10ma 50ema 50ma Buy the small dips when MACD is green. Sell the small rips when MACD is red. watch the MAs.
SPX Correction Targets 10ma 50ema 250ema Buy when S&P crosses the 10ma
$SPX 50sma and 20ema Daily Chart
$SPX 4ema to cut through the trading noise
$SPX 5 day support and resistance
Stockcharts $SPX 13 20 34 ema support - the 34 is the main TREND ema
Market support resistance and pivots
Tony Caldero - Best SPY E-Wave chart
VXX UVXY and VIX Analysis:
Most useful VIX daily EMAs with 35day channel
$NASI near a peak where it has pulled back in the past tries
Very best VIX medium term buy sell chart with 3 channels <===== look for stochastic rising and crossing 20 line
VIX with 20 50 200ma and Stochastic
VIX with TWO price channels and 15ema VIX Needs to break ema to start uptrend
VIX ema crosses and one channel VIX can stop at 13 and 34ema
Joanne Klein Money Wave - best charts for medium term market direction <====== Check S&P money wave every day for direction
Stockcharts UVXY gallery view (look at CMF for when to buy and sell)
VIX 2 year chart with 20ema and 50ma 200ma <========
If SPXU does not make a new high sell. MAYBE Buy again when oversold. Wait for UPRO buy signal. It is possible to make 170% returns per year if you follow rules.
UVXY medium term with BB Width and %B breakouts in either direction
VIX with DPO <=========== The DPO indicator is very reliable
Medium Term VXX chart with zig zag indicator
VIX Long term buy sell indicators:
Medium Term VIX chart with ema and MACD
Never go long anything unless the 10 and 20 ema cross
VXX - Where wealth goes to die
Buy VIX at best possible entry point when the 20ema and 50ema cross.
Buy VIX at best possible entry point when the 50ema and 200sma cross. Do not attempt to buy XIV here!
Sell VIX and buy XIV when the VIX is overbought, or produces a hammer reversal candle, or when the VIX crosses the 20ema, 50ema and 200sma lines. If there is a bounce instead then buy VIX.
The VIX finds best support and resistance at the 50ema
Note that if the VIX remained constant, then due to contango VXX would fall by 0.28% per trading day, and UVXY by 0.56% per trading day.
SVXY on the other hand for the same VIX and SPY numbers does not appear to suffer from contango, but appears to increase in value by about 3% over 37 trading days.
These numbers can change depending on the VIX futures term structure:
http://www.cboe.com/data/volatilityindexes/volatilityindexes.aspx
In december 2012 the VIX went from 15 to 23 a 53% gain. UVXY went from $17.5 to $29, a 65% gain, and SVXY went from $79 to $59 a 26% loss.
The VIX then went from 23 to 11, a 50% loss. UVXY went from $29 to $10, a 66% loss, and SVXY went from $58 to $87 a 50% gain.
VIX 14.7 to 19.5 33% UVXY $25 to $33 33%
VIX 11 to 16 45% UVXY $9 to $13 45%
UVXY decay rate:
Between 18th Oct and 29th Nov the VIX opened and closed at 15.
UVXY fell from $26 to $19, losing 27% in 27 trading days. ie. the decay rate is 0.9% on average every day.
SVXY went from $72.5 to $77.5, gaining 7% in 27 trading days. ie. the anti-decay rate is 0.25% on average every day.
Since the beginning of 2013, the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) (the VIX) has fallen over 30 percent, and is now at lows not seen since 2007. But one trader believes that this could soon change. On Thursday, someone bought 100,000 VIX February 16-strike calls for $0.55 each. This is a $5.5 million bet that the VIX will settle above 16.55 (30 percent higher) 13 trading days from now. The trade occurred just before the VIX spiked from about 12.60 to a high of 13.50, before reversing again to close at 12.75.
The VIX is a mean-reverting product, and this is a bet that it will revert off of its current, exceptionally low level, and back towards its long term average, which is roughly the 15-20 range. However, there is no guarantee that the VIX will move back to these levels anytime soon. For instance, during 2005 and 2006, the VIX rarely popped above 15, preferring to stay between 10 and 15, since the market was bullish and realized volatility was low. Not until there was major underpinning credit risk in the market during the financial crisis did the VIX take off, and it has since spent much of its time above 20. As the ramifications of the U.S. financial crisis fade and European debt crisis is resolved, the VIX could settle into its pre-crisis range of 10-15. That said, the trade seen on Thursday was likely a portfolio hedge, rather than an instance of pure speculation on the VIX. Why use the VIX as a portfolio hedge?
Well, it has a lot of attractive qualities. First, the VIX typically moves up 4 percent for every 1 percent down move in the S&P 500 (^GSPC). When the VIX is at current low levels, however, it can become even more volatile. For instance, the S&P 500 was down 0.20 percent yesterday, and the VIX was up over 5 percent.
Another reason it is an attractive hedge is that the implied volatility in VIX options is near all-time lows. If the VIX spikes, traders rush to buy VIX calls as portfolio protection. A long VIX call will profit from both a rise in the VIX, and from increase in the implied volatility of the VIX itself-making this hedge a good bang for your buck.
The McClellan Oscillator offers many types of structures for interpretation, but there are two main ones. First, when the Oscillator is positive, it generally portrays money coming into the market; conversely, when it is negative, it reflects money leaving the market. Second, when the Oscillator reaches extreme readings, it can reflect an overbought or oversold condition.
NYMO tends to go back to zero after oversold, before resuming down....
NYMO chart buy sell the extremes and watch the direction of the fast ema
XIV Backwardation fear :
2013 VIX range may be a repeat of 2006
The VIX can stay low for several years. Pattern ends when the VIX 200dma reaches 12:
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An unusual "coupling" of the CBOE Volatility Index occurred from April 2007 until October 2007. Instead of the normal inverse relationship, both stocks and the VIX moved higher during this time frame. The S&P 500 recorded its high in October 2007 as the VIX traded above 16 and well above its lows around 10. Something it not right when the VIX and S&P 500 rise together. This abnormal coupling served as a warning sign that foreshadowed an extended decline from October 2007 until February 2009.
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