Important Links
20% unemployment
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
SPY
$SPX with 10 SMA and 20 SMA crosses
UVXY
SVXY
VIX
Leading indicators:
SPX peaks when dollar stops falling
DOW Utilities as a forward indicator
Coppock momentum curve shows when the momentum is weakening
Watch oil for signs of War and not just talk
Intermediate term indicator is the NYMO simple moving average crossover
Over the past three yeas the 50 has crossed the 200 about 10 times, if you don't count the time it crossed over for only a few days or less. When it crosses down there's an 80% success rate of calling some sort of top and when it crosses up the signal called for the trend to be up correctly every time for the past three years
Global Income Fund as a forward indicator (watch for fail 20ema)
XIV negative ROC is a forward indicator for market divergence and correction
$USHL5 when to be long and when to be short indicator
XIV:$VIX an indicator for when to buy SPX/UPRO
TSI True Strength Indicator an excellent leading indicator
Look for high volume in TLT marking selling climax
IYT DJ transoports as an indicator
XLF financials as an indicator
S&P500 first support is the 10 day ma and then the 20 day ma
Primary sell indicator is when MACD of RSP:$CPCE crosses zero <================= SELL
$BPSPX <================= SELL
Long term BPSPX sell indicator
$BPSPX Long Term Sell Indicator
Good long term swing chart with StochRSI and $NYDNV and $NYUPV
If VIX RSI(2) > 90 and SPY RSI(2) <10, then buy SPY on close, if SPY is greater than > 200 day MA. Sell when SPY RSI(2) >65
The DOW is now a leading indicator with a very bearish engulfing candle
$NYMO oversold with area indicator
$NYDEC oversold link needs to hold 2000 for bearish outlook
The DAX as a sell indicator - often leads the S$P by a few days
RSP when down bears have a chance
Faster VIX sell indicator (look for crossover of 17 and 34 emas. If slower sell indicators do not confirm then buy back)
SKEW as a top indicator - Watch for SKEW at the top of the bollinger band and RSI reaching 70. Bottom is when RSI reaches 40.
$NYSI Primary buy indicator crosses 20ema <================= SELL
SH:HDGE Proshares Short S&P500 / Advisor Shares Active Bear
SPY needs to touch the bottom of the bollinger band before possible correction can happen
Long term SPX 10 and 50 ema buy sell indicators
Best Indicator ever for timing the market
$OEXA200R sell when crosses 65 line
NYSE McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
Financials as a leading or lagging indicator
Inverse TRIN relationship to SPY
$TED as a leading indicator -sell stocks when TED crosses above 200ma
DAX confirms a lower high on Feb20th
I am not aware of any indicator that can reliably predict MT or LT market direction in this manipulated market.
For now, they are all bullish but have still room to move up.
On a daily basis, look at a number of "Breath Indicators"' charts and most have been "near" a short-term top for a while.
However, these indicators can stay extended for a longer time than expected.
so it is hard to guess when they will start turning down, and even if that happens when the market will follow them.
Some are at extremes but what is definition of extreme?
Here is one of them at 100% for many days and is not showing any sign of a drop:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDXHILO&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p46487761387
First, market is considered bullish based on making higher lows.
Perhaps EMA's are good tools for trading this market untill a turning point is clearly developed.
All gurus are bullish and they say "buy the dips" because bond money is flowing into stocks (rate is moving up) and asset inflation is the goal, so being in cash is a losing proposition and being in bonds is very dangerous. So, they recommend buying stocks, real estate, Precious Metals, and anything that has "intrinsic value" because the dollar will lose its value over time due to countless printing of money all over the planet, even though the dollar is one of the strongest currencies.
Second, the economic news is better than expected. The Weekly Leading Indicator is showing improvement over the past few weeks.
Third, look at market reaction to earning reports by AMZN, NFLX, and many others that reported awful numbers but were rewarded greatly. It seems market is very forgiving and ignores the bad news or looks at bad news as good, a sign of bullishness. I agree we are very overbought (sentiment (55%) is also at a turning point) and at some point there will be a correction, but with Ben at helm, I think we will move higher.
Fourth, I am watching one indicator that in the past (not last year) has shown some consistency in detecting a top:
$NASI usually peaks around 625 (+/- 25) and I guess it will peak this time around that number.
Watch the SLOPE as it crosses the ZERO line. That can be considered the peak.
Apparently there is no correlation between the indicator value at extremes and the number of dyas it stays on at ~100%. Look at the same chart and note that in 2012 it stayed around 100% for a long time while $SPX continued its upside move:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDXHILO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84631246008