Trading Tools
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May 23rd 2021
Current S&P 500 PE ratio 44.15. ie earnings rate 2.27%.
Current 10 Year Treasury Rate 1.63%.
Kiplinger's current inflation rate 4.4%.
To combat inflation, the 10 year has to rise to 4.4% and the S&P earnings have to rise to 6.12%.
Which means the S&P500 has to drop from 4156 to 1541.
S&P Very Long Term Monthly chart:
The Bullish range for 2021 is 3400 to 4050.
"Triple Witching" is an event that occurs when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire on the same day. Triple witching days happen four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. The final trading hour for that Friday is the hour known as triple witching. The markets are quite volatile in this final hour, as traders quickly offset their option/futures orders before the closing bell.
MEGAPHONE CHART PATTERNS:
AAL Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions (tipranks.com)
The 10-year Treasury Note yield is below 1%.
If there is a confirmed move above 1% in the 10-year, that would be the perfect catalyst to get a pullback in
equity markets that would take out some of this froth and complacency.
When TLT takes off stock markets will crash
Rule of thumb: 1. on Daily buy above 10 DMA
Rule of thumb: 2. start counter trend when Hourly trades below its 20 DMA. for now bullish on both, stay on the trend made simple.
Bitcoin is the new liquidity indicator, watch it like a hawk.
If I was bullish, this below is when I would be buying next (Nasdaq 8,600 ish) and I would hold it until 10,200 for a bounce, and then reassess.
I am currently in a 3x bear fund and will hold it until I lose it all, or print below 10,000.
Bears think it is time for a collapse like in 2001 which took 13 years to recover. It is all on this one chart below.
It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the S&P 500 futures.
Volume surged, maybe bulls will try the rebound again the next Monday. You people always like to try twice, if both are failed then will try the opposite direction and this is why we often see double bottom, double top. Bears tried twice Wednesday and Thursday, both were failed, so now it's bulls' turn. Bulls tried this morning but failed in the afternoon so probably will try again the next Monday.
If anything is going to be a top, it is this:
Megaphone pattern, very bearish:
“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price" -Warren Buffet
This site provides free information, research, and tools for making informed investment decisions, and has been specifically designed with predefined links to allow users to take decisive action in time critical fast markets. For example, users can read the latest news and fundamentals analysis, quickly verify stock technicals with the very best predefined technical charts and then link directly to their online brokerage accounts. Do not trade for real if you do not understand technical and fundermental analysis, if you do so you are just throwing darts blindly at a dart board.
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If there is one thing you should take away from this site, it is to Stop Loss by selling if a trade is going against you, even if the company or security seems sound. Always limit your loses to not more than 10%, there will always be other great opportunities in the future, provided you didnt hold on to a losing trade and lose your capital. It took me 10 years to learn this lesson, that averaging down on an initial loss can quickly become catastrophic. Remember in this zero sum game, 95% of traders and investors lose money to the other 5%.
Benjamin Graham said in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price). Of course the same applies to individual stocks also.
If you are just starting in investing I strongly recommend you start with a hypothetical portfolio rather than the real thing with real money.
Daytrading? Well, I guess that is about the fastest way to die of a heart attack I know of.
A trigger point for a market correction could be the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman after Ben Bernanke's term expires in January. Twice in my investment lifetime, we have changed the Fed chairman. We changed it when (Paul) Volcker changed to (Alan) Greenspan (in 1987) and when Greenspan changed to Bernanke (in 2006). Both times were followed by a serious correction in the market.
Regarding site navigation, the Navigation bar on the right may have hidden pages, click the arrows to bring them up. Also scattered around the site are a few ads and by just clicking a few you will be helping out with our expenses. Some of them are funny, a few might even be useful!
Automatic budget cuts — known as sequestration — had been scheduled for January 2, but the so-called “fiscal cliff” budget deal postponed them until March 1. The clock is ticking. Update: The date came and went and sequestration and automatic budget cuts are now in place and will now start dragging on economic growth. The stock market prices in events 3 to 6 months into the future so we can expect it start pricing in this situation quickly..
Regarding Insider selling the historical average is 2.2 sells to buys LONG term. In february 2013 it is 9:1
TRUST NO ONE. There is such lies and manipulation going on in financial markets, at all levels from the FED down to the message board hustlers.
10 things they told me in 2009:
1. Great depression is coming back
2. market will crashing for years to come
3. every rally should be shorted
4. buy and hold is dead
5. equities are the worst investments
6. will be run on banks
7. unemployment will be high off the charts
8. bankruptcies will be high off the charts
9. there will be civil unrest
10. this is THE END
The Trend is your friend until it ends. In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king. The stock market is the credit markets stupid little brother.
Klarman: Investing today may well be harder than it has been at any time in our three decades of existence," writes Seth Klarman in his year-end letter. The Fed's "relentless interventions and manipulations" have left few purchase targets for Baupost, he laments. "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors.
FOMC meeting: Several Fed officials warned of reducing or ending QE too soon, but several on the FOMC said the Fed should be prepared to vary the pace of QE, because tapering the pace of the asset purchase program may become necessary.
Roubini: We will have a huge credit bubble, worse than 2007. Money will leave gold due to lack of fear and inflation and move into other asset classes, especially property.
If you are rich you set the trendline on the monthly chart, if you are semi-rich on the weekly, if you are dirt-poor on the hourly ..
The Bull Bear checklist:
1.Is the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy?
2.Are stock price valuations stretched?
3.Is investor euphoria present?
4.Are bond spreads widening?
5.Is there a recession looming?
6.Are transportation stocks, small caps and bank stocks retreating?
"Right now we are 0-for-6 in the bear market checklist," Darst said.
The 7 year cycle low has been very good. Previous Lows were in 2002 and 2009 with the next low in 2016.
Here are some very useful tools for turning trading losses into gains:
Chart of the DECADE:
Tom Demark 13 waves up until exhaustion and then the markets are tired. Sell Europe already and sell the S&P after a blow off top to 1492. (WRONG!)
Building a 6% income portfolio
Markets can remain up longer than you can remain solvent...
One of the prerequisites for a market top: relative weakness in financials.
The Big Picture:
The 4 Year Cycle
On Jan 1st JP Morgan's Lee top strategist calls for rise to 1500 followed by 1350 low and 1580 high for end of 2013
JPM Tom Lee prediction for 2013
Tom Lee JPMs bull warning about first half of year
A long term bullish market call
Stock Traders Almanac very long term projecions:
Feb 2013, the stock market is now valued at $14 trillion, give or take..
The basis of a sector rotation strategy is this: some sectors perform best heading into market peaks, other sectors perform best heading into market troughs.
After the stock market peaks, the consumer staples (XLP), health care (XLV) and utilities (XLU) sectors typically outperform the market. Once the market has bottomed, typically it’s the technology (XLK), financial (XLF) and consumer discretionary (XLY) sectors that lead the recovery. Likewise, in a strong bull market the industrial (XLI), materials (XLB) and energy (XLE) sectors are usually the strongest performers.
Knowing just two things – where we are in the current cycle, and which sectors perform best during that stage – can give you a significant edge in the market.
