Statistics
Bayesian modeling & probabilistic study of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) System for Indian scenario
Project Guide: Prof. M. Small
This project was a continuation of Modeling of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) System for Indian scenario. This work focused on the Bayesian modeling coupled with PRT system modeling for the proposed Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) connecting it to important places surrounding it.
A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) as shown below (right) was created using the known actual modal splits for NMIA travellers and assumed probabilities of modal shift (of travellers) to PRT at each node of the Primary PRT Loop as shown below (left). This gave a holistic probability of modal shift (of travellers) to PRT instead of assuming a fixed probability of modal shift at each node as was done in Modeling of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) System for Indian scenario. The resulting capacity utilization (i.e. Demand/Capacity of a transport system) for the proposed Primary Loop alone increased to about 62% subject to a further increase due to the proposed feeder loops. This result fulfilled one of the major requirements of technical feasibility.
ATS/CityMobil developed by ULTra PRT was used for PRT modeling and the free version of software Norsys Netica was used for Bayesian modeling.
Proposed PRT network
Sample Bayesian Belief Network
Statistical model of fracture in pressure vessel steel
Project Guide: Prof. A. Rollett
Fracture mechanics is quite a young science and till date, not understood completely. This project gave a brief overview of the existing approaches for determining linear elastic fracture toughness. Fracture toughness of nuclear reactor’s pressure vessel steel decreases due to irradiation damage. This adds to the complexity involved in predicting the life of nuclear pressure vessel based on fracture considerations. The central idea of the project was to convey the practical need to develop a sound statistical model for fracture. A possible extreme value theory model to predict the life of a nuclear pressure vessel was also proposed in this project.