Who: I am an associate professor of economics interested in health and human capital formation.

What: My research fields are health economics, social science genomics, and applied micro.

Where: University of Bologna, department of economics.

Why: I don't really know why. For more info, you can contact me at pietro.biroli [at] unibo.it

My CV, google scholar profile, ORCid, and github

My bluesky @pietrobiroli

Publications

Working Papers

Current Projects

Bio

I am an associate professor of economics at the University of Bologna. I obtained my PhD in economics from the University of Chicago, and then was UBS Foundation Assistant Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Zurich. I am a research affiliate at the Jacobs Center for Productive Youth Development at UZH, IZA, fRDB, HCEO, CHILD, CAGE, CEPR, and CESifo.

My research focuses on the early origins and life cycle evolution of health and human capital. I explore the importance of genetics, family investment, and early childhood interventions in explaining health and economic inequality. With my work, I aim to understand the mechanisms through which effective policy interventions and optimal choices of investment can help mitigate innate inequalities and promote health and human capital development.

More broadly, I am interested in Health Economics, Applied Econometrics, and Social Science Genetics.

Publications

Biroli, Galama, von Hinke, van Kippersluis, Rietveld, & Thom

Economics and Econometrics of Gene-Environment Interplay

The Review of Economic Studies; (2025)

(arxiv working paper, code)

Malanchini, Allegrini, Nivard, Biroli, Rimfeld, Cheesman, Stumm, Demange, van Bergen, Grotzinger, Raffington, De la Fuente, Pingault, Tucker-Drob, Harden, Plomin.

Genetic associations between non-cognitive skills and academic achievement over development.

Nature Human Behavior; 8, pages2034–2046 (2024)

(bioRxiv working paper, media: Altmetric, youtube summary, youtube findings)

Baker, Biroli, van Kippersluis, & von Hinke,

Advantageous early-life environments cushion the genetic risk for ischemic heart disease.

In PNAS, Vol. 121, No. 27, e2314056121; (2024)

(bioRxiv working paper, code)

Escobar Carias, Baranov, Maselko, Biroli, & Bhalotra

Maternal Mental Health Responses to COVID-19 Shocks and Uncertainty in Rural Pakistan

in AEA Papers and Proceedings, VOL. 114, pp. 407–11, (2024)

(Replication package)

Sevim, Baranov, Bhalotra, Maselko, & Biroli,

Trajectories of Early Childhood Skill Development and Maternal Mental Health

in Journal of Human Resources, 1222-12693R3; (2023)

(IZA working paper)

Koellinger, Okbay, Kweon, Schweinert, Karlsson Linnér, Goebel, Richte, Reiber, Zweck, Belsky, Biroli, Mata, Tucker-Drob, Harden, Wagner, & Hetwig,

Cohort profile: Genetic data in the German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-G)

in Plos one, 18(11), p.e0294896. (2023)

(bioRxiv working paper)

van Kippersluis, Biroli, Dias Pereira, Galama, von Hinke, Meddens, Muslimova, Slob, de Vlaming, & Rietveld,

Overcoming attenuation bias in regressions using polygenic indices.

In Nature Communications (2023)

(bioRxiv working paper, code)

Bierut, Biroli, Galama, & Thom,

Challenges in studying the interplay of genes and environment. A study of childhood financial distress moderating genetic predisposition for peak smoking.

In Journal of Economic Psychology. (2023)

(bioRxiv working paper)

Dias Pereira, Biroli, Galama, von Hinke, van Kippersluis, Rietveld, & Thom,

Gene–Environment Interplay in the Social Sciences.

In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. Oxford University Press. (2022)

(arXiv working paper)

Baranov, Frost, Hagaman, Simmons, Manzoor, Biroli, Bhalotra, Rahman, Sikander, Maselko,

Effects of a maternal psychosocial intervention on hair derived biomarkers of HPA axis function in mothers and children in rural Pakistan.

SSM - Mental Health, 100082. (2022)

Biroli, Bosworth, Della Giusta, Di Girolamo, Jaworska, & Vollen,

Family Life in Lockdown.

Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 3259 (2021)

(HCEO working paper, data and code, slides, media: Altmetric)

Demange, Malanchini, Mallard, Biroli, Cox, Grotzinger, Tucker-Drob, Abdellaoui, Arseneault, Caspi, Corcoran, Domingue, Mitchell, van Bergen, Boomsma, Harris, Moffitt, Poulton, Prinz, Sugden, Wertz, Williams, de Zeeuw, Belsky, Harden, Nivard,

Investigating the Genetic Architecture of Non-Cognitive Skills Using GWAS-by-Subtraction.

Nature Genetics. 53, 35–44 (2021)

(FAQ, factsheet, bioRxiv working paper, code, tutoria for GWAS by subtraction , noncog and cog sumstats, media: Altmetric)

Biroli, Boneva, Raja, Rauh,

Parental Beliefs about Returns to Child Health Investments.

Journal of Econometrics, ISSN 0304-4076. (2020).

(IZA working paper, data and code)

Maselko, Sikander, Turner, Bates, Ahmad, Atif, Baranov, Bhalotra, Bibi, Bibi, Bilal, Biroli, Chung, Gallis, Hagaman, Jamil, Lemasters, & Donnell,

Effectiveness of a peer-delivered , psychosocial intervention on maternal depression and child development at 3 years postnatal : a cluster randomised trial in Pakistan.

The Lancet Psychiatry, 7(9), 775–787. (2020).

(preprint, media: PlumX)

Baranov, Bhalotra, Biroli, & Maselko,

Maternal Depression, Women’s Empowerment, and Parental Investment: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial.

American Economic Review, 110 (3): 824-59. (2020).

(IZA working paper, data and code, slides, econimate video, Media: The Guardian, The Economist, AER Highlights)

Maselko, Hagaman, Bates, Bhalotra, Biroli, Gallis, O'Donnel, Sikander, Rahman,

Father involvement in the first year of life: Associations with maternal mental health and child development outcomes in rural Pakistan.

Social Science & Medicine, 112421, ISSN 0277-9536. (2019).

(media: Altmetric)

Karlsson Linnér, Biroli, Kong, Meddens, Wedow, Fontana, … , Beauchamp,

Genome-wide association analyses of risk tolerance and risky behaviors in over 1 million individuals identify hundreds of loci and shared genetic influences.

Nature Genetics, 51: 245–257. (2019).

(FAQ, bioRxiv working paper, sumstats, media: Altmetric, 3sat documentary)

Biroli, Del Boca, Heckman, J. J., Pettler-Heckman, L., Koh, Kuperman, Mokdan, Pronzazo, Ziff,

Evaluation of the Reggio Approach to Early Childhood Education.

Research in Economics, 72(1): 1–32. (2018).

(IZA working paper, appendix, code. media: PlumX)

Biroli, Mourre, & Turrini, "The adjustment mechanism in the Euro Area." Intereconomics, 48(3), 159–166. (2013).

Buti, Turrini, van den Noord, & Biroli, "Reforms and Re-elections in OECD Countries." Economic Policy, 25(61), 61–116. (2010)

Buti, Turrini, van den Noord, & Biroli, "Defying the ‘Juncker Curse’: Can Reformist Governments Be Re-elected?" Empirica, 36(1), 65–100. (2009).

Working Papers

Seeing Stereotypes (arXiv preprint)

with Elisa Baldazzi, Marina Della Giusta, Florent Dubois

Abstract: Reliance on stereotypes is a persistent feature of human decision-making and has been extensively documented in educational settings, where it can shape students' confidence, performance, and long-term human capital accumulation. While effective techniques exist to mitigate these negative effects, a crucial first step is to establish whether teachers can recognize stereotypes in their professional environment. We introduce the Stereotype Identification Test (SIT), a novel survey tool that asks teachers to evaluate and comment on the presence of stereotypes in images randomly drawn from school textbooks. Their responses are systematically linked to established measures of implicit bias (Implicit Association Test, IAT) and explicit bias (survey scales on teaching stereotypes and social values). Our findings demonstrate that the SIT is a valid and reliable measure of stereotype recognition. Teachers' ability to recognize stereotypes is linked to trainable traits such as implicit bias awareness and inclusive teaching practices. Moreover, providing personalized feedback on implicit bias improves SIT scores by 0.25 standard deviations, reinforcing the idea that stereotype recognition is malleable and can be enhanced through targeted interventions.

Beyond Time: Unveiling the Invisible Burden of Mental Load (arXiv preprint)

with Francesca Barigozzi, Chiara Monfardini, Natalia Montinari, Elena Pisanelli, Sveva Vitellozzi

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel, scalable methodology to measure individual perceptions of gaps in mental load -- the cognitive and emotional burden associated with organizing household and childcare tasks -- within heterosexual couples. Using original data from the TIMES Observatory in Italy, the study combines time-use diaries with new survey indicators to quantify cognitive labor, emotional fatigue, and the spillover of mental load into the workplace. Results reveal systematic gender asymmetries: women are significantly more likely than men to bear organizational responsibility for domestic tasks, report lower satisfaction with this division, and experience higher emotional fatigue. These burdens are underestimated by their partners. The effects are particularly pronounced among college-educated and employed women, who also report greater spillovers of family responsibilities than men during paid work hours. The perceived responsibility for managing family activities is more strongly associated with within-couple gaps in time use than with the absolute time spent on their execution, underscoring the relational and conflictual nature of mental load.

Talent is Everywhere, Opportunity is Not: Online Role Model Mentoring and Students’ Aspirations (recent version)

with Amalia Di Girolamo, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Maddalena Totarelli.

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of ORME, a cost-effective and easily scalable online mentoring program for middle school students. By connecting students with successful role models who share similar socio-economic backgrounds, ORME aims to enhance students’ aspirations, beliefs about the returns to education, and ultimately, their educational outcomes. Through a randomized controlled trial involving five middle schools and over 600 students in Campania, Italy, we find that participation in ORME significantly improves students’ perceptions of effort-related success, increases the alignment between their aspirations and expectations, and enhances school effort. Additionally, students in the treatment group are more likely to prefer and enroll in the academically-oriented school tracks and perform better on standardized tests, particularly in language.

Moral Hazard Heterogeneity: Genes and Insurance Influence Smoking after a Health Shock (recent version, bioRxiv, code, slides, podcast)

with Laura Zwyssig

Abstract: Decision-making in the realm of health behaviors, such as smoking or drinking, is influenced both by biological factors, such as genetic predispositions, as well as environmental factors, such as financial liquidity and health insurance status. We show how the choice of smoking after a cardio-vascular health shock is jointly determined by the interaction between these biological and environmental constraints. Individuals who suffer a health shock when uninsured are 25.6 percentage points more likely to reduce smoking, but this is true only for those who have a low index of genetic predisposition to smoking. Individuals with a low index of genetic predisposition are more strategic and flexible in their behavioral response to an external shock. This differential elasticity of response depending on your genetic variants is evidence of individual-level heterogeneity in moral hazard. These results suggest that genetic heterogeneity is a factor that should be considered when evaluating the importance and fairness of health insurance policies.

Genes, Pubs, and Drinks: Gene-environment interplay and alcohol licensing policy in the United Kingdom.

with Christian Zünd

Abstract: Are we genetically destined to behave poorly, or can a well-designed policy and a nurturing environment prevail over our instincts? This paper analyzes the interplay of public policy and individuals' genetic endowments, demonstrating how people's genetic propensity to drink moderates their consumption behavior in response to changes in alcohol availability and licensing policy. We combine data from the UK Biobank with geo-coded data on pubs and retailers, as well as data on alcohol licensing from local authorities in England and Wales. This allows us to construct a fine-grained measure of local alcohol availability for each one of the approximately 500,000 participants in the UK Biobank. Our results show that individuals with a high genetic propensity to drink select into environments with easier access to alcohol, react less to changes in the availability of alcohol, and respond less to restrictive licensing. Thus, we show that a supply-focused licensing policy to mitigate alcohol abuse can clash with individual predispositions and might exacerbate genetic inequality, suggesting the need for a more targeted approach.

Psychological Interventions Provide Resilience to Negative Shocks.

with Michelle Escobar Carias, Victoria Baranov, Sonia Bhalotra, and Joanna (Asia) Maselko,

Abstract: We investigate the efficacy of a mental health intervention in fostering resilience, leveraging data from follow-up of a trial implemented on women suffering depression in pregnancy. We examine resilience in terms of the robustness of mental health and relationship quality in the face of negative shocks. Using two different shocks, pandemic restrictions and temperature, we find that women who received psychotherapy exhibit significantly reduced symptoms of anxiety and depression, improved spousal relationships, and a markedly lower likelihood of experiencing marital problems compared to women who did not receive the intervention. Further results suggest that these improvements are attributable to an enhanced ability to manage stress and worry, and through improved locus of control and problem-solving orientation.

Long-term Reductions in Depression and Intimate Partner Violence Over 8 Years: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial.

with Michelle Escobar Carias, Victoria Baranov, Lisa Bates, Sonia Bhalotra, and Joanna (Asia) Maselko,

Abstract: This study evaluates the log-term impacts of treating perinatal depression on women’s mental health and intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization by leveraging a randomized controlled trial that started in 2014, and eight years of follow-up surveys. Our findings show that treating perinatal depression using cognitive behavioral-informed psychotherapy not only leads to lasting reductions in depression severity, but also has complementary effects on IPV. Eight years after the start of the intervention, depression severity was lower by 8.7 percent among the treatment group. The effects of psychotherapy on intimate partner violence become significant in year 3, and peak in years 6 and 7 of follow-up. On average, CBT reduces the severity of physical violence by 56.4% and sexual violence by 50.2%. Next, we explore the role of the peer volunteers who delivered the intervention, in maximizing the effectiveness of CBT. We show that the types of peers who are most effective at improving mental health are different from the ones who obtain the largest reductions in IPV. The former are younger and unmarried women, whereas the latter are older, married with a larger number of children. For both sets of outcomes, peers with college education are signficantly more effective.

Cognition, personality, and in-group favouritism among children

with Amalia Di Girolamo, Michalis Drouvelis, Matteo Pinna

Abstract: Understanding the forces determining social preferences is a central topic in the behavioural and the social sciences. In this paper, we focus on how IQ and Big-5 personality traits relate to the development of children’s cooperative behaviour, either in-group (class peers) or out-group (school peers). In a lab-in-the-field prisoner dilemma experiment with elementary school children aged 7-11, we find that the average cooperation rate is 9.7 percentage points higher for in-group vs out-group. Children with high IQ are 42 percentage points less likely to cooperate with outsiders. Conscientious, extrovert, and open to experience children are also 14 to 20 percentage points less likely to cooperate with outsiders. In-group favouritism is not constant over the ages but develops in children starting from about age 10, suggesting that social preferences and group identity are acquired over time and not necessarily an innate behaviour.

Genetic and Economic Interaction in Health Formation: The Case of Obesity. (working paper)

Abstract: Small genetic differences at birth confer a comparative advantage in health and human capital formation, and can lead to substantial inequality in long term social and economic outcomes. I develop a structural model of health and human capital formation illustrating the dynamic interaction between genetic inheritance and investments in health over the life cycle. Genetic heterogeneity across individuals can change the utility cost of investment and the production function of health, shifting the incentives to invest in healthy habits. Focusing on Body-Mass-Index (BMI) as a measure of poor health, I consider physical activity and food intake as investments in health, and I evaluate their interaction with specific variants in FTO and other genes associated with BMI in Genome-Wide Association Studies. Applying this model in two different datasets, one of British adolescents and one of US adults, I find that Gene-Environment interaction plays a pivotal role in the evolution of BMI. Food intake has a stronger impact on BMI for those individuals with a particular genetic makeup, and yet they tend to display a higher demand for food. The association of variants in the FTO gene with the hypothalamic regulation of food intake gives a biological foundation to the observed differences in healthy investments. This analysis provides an economic framework of health and human capital formation that integrates recent findings in genetics and molecular biology and sheds light on the interdependence between genes and economic choices of investment.

Health and Skill Formation in Early Childhood (UBS wp)

Abstract:This paper analyzes the developmental origins and the evolution of health, cognitive, and noncognitive skills during early childhood, from age 0 to 5. We explicitly model the dynamic interactions of health with the child's behavior and cognitive skills, as well as the role of parental investment. A dynamic factor model corrects for the presence of measurement error in the proxy for the latent traits. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we find that children's capabilities strongly interact and build on each other: health is an important determinant of early noncognitive development; in turn noncognitive skills have a positive impact on the evolution of both health and cognitive functions; on the other side, the effect of cognitive abilities on health is negligible. Furthermore, all facets of human capital display a high degree of persistence. Finally, mother's investments are an important determinant of the child's health, cognitive, and noncognitive development early in life.