Professor of Economics and Data Science at University of Cambridge
Director of Master's in Economics and Data Science at Faculty of Economics
Fellow at Trinity College Cambridge
External Research Professor at PRIO
Associate Editor at Economic Journal
CEPR, IZA and HCEO Affiliate
Research fields: Political Economy, Labor Economics, Data Science, Conflict
I am Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge and an External Research Professor at PRIO. I am also a Fellow of Trinity College Cambridge, and a Research Affiliate at CEPR, HCEO, and IZA. I work with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling. I am a co-founder of conflictforecast.org and have conducted multiple projects with the FCDO, German Foreign Office, and IMF. I have published in top Economics and Political Science journals, such as American Political Science Review, Journal of European Economic Association, and Journal of Public Economics. My work has been featured widely across the media including The Guardian, Washington Post, the Economist, the BBC, FAZ, and Der Spiegel. I am listed amongst the top 1% of Economists in terms of research output in the last ten years.
We have developed a method that forecasts fatalities from outbreaks of armed political violence up to a year in advance. We use a combination of unsupervised and supervised machine learning to analyze more than 5 million news articles. The webpage illustrates how we do this visually. Using out method we have recently won the ViEWS conflict prediction competition.
We will update our page https://conflictforecast.org/ on a monthly basis to provide policymakers and researchers with quantitative armed conflict risk benchmarks. Our goal is to predict subtle outbreak risks in countries that don't have a recent conflict history which should, so we hope, help preventive efforts that don't rely on armed interventions.
The Peace Dividend of Power Sharing: Quantitative Evidence on the Reduction of Political Violence through Negotiation
with Hannes Mueller
For German Foreign Office
Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model
with Hannes Mueller and Alessandro Ruggieri
For Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office
Predicted conflict risk over the next 12 months
Covid Inequality Project
We have collected data using multiple survey waves across countries and are finding that the outbreak of COVID-19 is having a large and unequal impact on workers. Please find details about our work here: covidinequalityproject.com
Presentations for a broader audience: Mainz (in German)