Temakveld høst 2022

Date: 30. November, 2022

Time: 17:00, the talk itself will start a it later.

Food and beverages: Sushi, Pizza, soda.

Format: Hybrid

Place: Abels utsikt (12th floor, Niels Henrik Abels hus - Universitetet i Oslo) and Zoom https://nmbu.zoom.us/j/68359830850?pwd=R1pXcTZ5WnNIOC9rRmNvOFNPYmRjQT09

Speaker: Ørnulf Borgan

Title: The Brier score for evaluating time-to-event predictions for administratively censored data: problems and a solution

Abstract:

The Brier score is commonly used for evaluating probability predictions. For time-to-event predictions based on right-censored observations of the event times, the score can be weighted by the inverse probability of censoring (IPCW) to retain its original interpretation. In the talk I will consider situations where individuals are recruited to a study population at different calendar times, and then followed up to the occurrence of an event of interest or to the closure of the study at a given date. For such administratively censored data, there may be problems with the IPCW weighting scheme when the distribution of the covariates varies with calendar time. I will discuss the reason for these problems, and also suggest an alternative version of the Brier score that does not suffer from the same problems. The talk is based on a joint paper with Håvard Kvamme that will soon appear in the Journal of Machine Learning Research.