Several waypoints have been recently mentioned in relation to a possible path of MH370.
For example, in our previous update, the air route M641, connecting Cocos Island to Perth, was traced along CCVOR - IKASA - UXORA - MERIB waypoints. As mentioned by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) document's "Considerations on defining the search area", "The air route crosses the area where the four acoustic signals were detected." However, this assumption begins to look less and less justifiable, and the current search area is unlikely to be "the final resting place of a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner".
In an attempt to find some logic behind the flight's path (rather than second-guess the logic behind the current search area near IKASA), while reconciling the constraints imposed by Inmarsat ping rings and other communication data (BFO and BTO), the following simple route is suggested from the location of the last primary radar contact by Malaysian military, 200 miles (320 km) NW of Penang, 6°49′38″N 97°43′15″E:
crossing 19:40 ping ring near waypoint POVUS between north-western tip of Indonesia and Nicobar Islands;
taking the heading towards Cocos Islands (CCVOR, 12.20057 S, 96.83863 E);
crossing 20:40 ping ring, after approximately 730 km travel during the last hour;
crossing 21:40 ping ring, after approximately 870 km travel during the last hour;
reaching CCVOR between 21:40 and 22:40, after approximately 465 km travel since 21:40;
taking the heading towards RAAF Learmonth (the closest point on Australian continent), via waypoint AGSEL (19.92502 S, 109.68335 E);
crossing 22:40 ping ring, after approximately 235 km travel since CCVOR, i.e., after 700 km travel during the last hour;
crossing 00:11 ping ring, after approximately 755 km travel during the last hour and a half;
crossing 00:19 ping ring, at the location with the approximate coordinates (17.47°S, 105.39° E).
The following Google Earth snapshot shows several ping rings (KML files for the rings are produced by Duncan Steel). These rings include the 00:11 ping ring produced by Duncan Steel, as well as the green arc taken from the Hishammuddin Hussein 00:11 ping ring (ideally, these two should be the same). The wider white arc approximates the 00:19 extrapolated ring. The path suggested above (1) - (9) is shown with red line.
The blue circle, centred at Christmas Island, is not relevant for this analysis.
A detailed look at the turn near CCVOR, see (4) - (6) steps above:
The following snapshot zooms into the area near the intersection of the Cocos Islands (CCVOR) - AGSEL - RAAF Learmonth route and the extrapolated 00:19 ping ring. The intersection point has the approximate coordinates (17.47°S, 105.39° E).
The suggested path is fairly simple: after the turn around the north-western tip of Indonesia, it follows one fixed heading towards Cocos Islands (with an airport), and then turns towards RAAF Learmonth, the closest point on Australian continent, continuing on this second fixed heading till the end. It however, assumes varying speeds over the route.
The intersection point (17.47°S, 105.39° E) is about 400 km north from the current/last search area.