12 April 2014

In the absence of data on seismic events (which are generally expected from impacts), one may assume that the flight either ended its southerly path in the Indian Ocean with water absorbing the energy of the impact, or landed along a northerly path, without a major crash. And so the brief notes below offer some consideration of different landing strips near the 8:11 ping ring.

The considered possibilities are still aligned with the main theory which suggested that the flight path followed the border between India and Myanmar (Burma).

There is a list of airbases used by the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), grouped by military region. The following image places some of these airbases on the map, in some proximity to the India and Myanmar (Burma)'s border. Importantly, some of these airbases are very close to the ping ring, corresponding to the last complete handshake with Inmarsat at 8:11. A segment of this ping ring is marked by the solid red line.

1. One of these airbases, Xining Air Base (26°32′27″N 101°48′0″E), is just outside the ping ring, being located less than 15 km from it. The next image shows a possible flight path which diverges from the border between India and Myanmar (Burma), in the easterly direction, reaching Xining Air Base.

No theory or explanation is offered here for the final part of such a flight path. It is an abstract possibility, consistent with the complete ping signal at 8:11, as well as the incomplete ping signal at 8:19. The location of Xining Air Base in the immediate proximity of these ping rings (8:11 and 8:19) is likely to be coincidental. Not much information is publicly available on Xining Air Base. The wikipedia article only adds that this airbase is new. It is unclear whether the airbase has an underground hangar like some of the other airbases. An aerial photo of the base from Google Maps is below:

2. Another abstract possibility is the Bandga Chudra / Qamdo Air Base (30°33′13″N 97°6′31″E), also reachable along the general flight path that follows the border between India and Myanmar (Burma).

This location, however, is some 120 km from the 8:11 ping ring. The ring itself is reconstructed from Inmarsat data, and so its placement is approximate. Assuming some reconstruction error, the distance of about 120 km between Qamdo Air Base and the ring may still be possible. Nevertheless, most likely it is too far from the ring and can be ruled out.

3. Disclaimer. No logical connections are proposed here, and so Xining Air Base remains only an abstract possibility.

12 April 2014