17 April 2014: a scenario

In the last couple of days the possibility that Qamdo Air Base (30°33′13″N 97°6′31″E) could have been the destination of MH370 was highlighted again. This possibility was briefly discussed here as well, among locations reachable along the general flight path that follows the border between India and Myanmar (Burma).

While Qamdo Air Base remains only an abstract possibility, we offer here a (speculative) explanation that attempts to bring different pieces of this mystery together.

1. The flight MH370 is hijacked by a group which is trying to arrange a release of terrorists, possibly related to Kunming massacre. Kunming, the place of the terrorist attack on 1 March 2014, is located very close to the reconstructed 8:11 ping ring (0:11 UTC ping ring). The captives may be held at one of Chinese military air bases in the vicinity of Kunming, for example, Qamdo Air Base, Xining Air Base, or Kunming Air Base, and so on (see the image below showing several bases in/around Tibet).

2. The hijacked plane attempts to evade radar detection by flying to its destination (e.g., Qamdo Air Base) along the border between India and Myanmar (Burma).

3. On approaching the destination, the hijackers communicate their demands, and request landing at the air base, e.g. Qamdo. The request is granted by the air base, given that there are passengers (hostages).

4. The plane lands on the airbase between 8:11 and 8:19 (that is, between 0:11 and 0:19 UTC). Negotiations between the hijackers and military begin. A plausible demand would be to swap the captives held at the base for some of the passengers, for example, the Freescale Semiconductor engineers, while keeping the rest of the passengers as hostages on the plane. Another plausible demand is to re-fuel the plane for a subsequent flight.

5. The negotiations may still be ongoing, and so, for safety of the passengers, this is kept secret, with a major SAR effort directed away. There may be other complications in the negotiations that warrant the secrecy.

This scenario explains the lack of seismic data from a possible crash impact, the scarcity of radar detection during the ill-fated flight, the denial of Inmarsat to release the detailed data, and the apparent lack of progress in the search in the Indian Ocean.