Research

Publications:

2024,  Economic Journal, Vol. 134, 295-321.

This paper traces the formation of politicians’ policy preferences to their early-life experiences. Using China’s Great Famine as an exogenous shock, we examine how the early-life experience of famine affects the fiscal decisions of China’s County Party Secretaries. Based on the biographical information of 2,806 CPS, we match the famine severity in their birth counties with the fiscal data in the 1,713 counties they governed during 1998–2007. We find that a one-percentage-point increase in the severity of famine experienced by the CPS in early-life leads to an increase in the fiscal expenditure on agriculture by 0.8% and an increase in social security subsidy by 1.1%. Consistently, agricultural tax is reduced significantly, leading to more grain production in the CPS’ work counties as a result. Our findings suggest that the CPS with early-life famine may develop the preferences for food sufficiency and the care for the people in hardships.


2024, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 90, 101681

3. Pay it Forward: An Experimental Study on Social Connections and Indirect Reciprocity (joint with Juanjuan MENG)

2023, Review of Economic Design, Vol. 27, 387-417.

4. Pray, Vote, and Money: The Double-edged Sword Effect of Religions on Rural Political Participation in China (joint with Shukang Xiao)

2022, China Economic Review, Vol. 71, 101726.

5. Homevalue Misestimation and Household Leverage: An Empirical Study of Chinese Urban Households (joint with Nan GAO)

2021, Cities, Vol. 109, 103043. 

6. Power Struggle and Pork-Barrel Politics in Authoritarian Countries: Evidence from China (joint with Nan GAO, Lixin Colin XU)

2021, Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, Vol. 29, 123-150.

7. In-group Bias in Prisons (joint with Shiqi GUO, Erte XIAO)

2020, Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 122, 328-340

We conducted a field experiment in a typical Chinese prison to examine the in-group bias of groups with a stigmatized identity. Inmates were given the opportunity to work for a charity. We found evidence of both pro-sociality and in-group favoritism among inmates. In particular, inmates increased their efforts when their output contributed to a charity and worked even harder when the beneficiary of their efforts have a prisoner identity. However, inmates who have been in prisons for a longer period put in relatively less effort in helping a beneficiary who is a prisoner. This negative correlation was not observed when the beneficiary was an outsider. These findings highlight the importance of social interaction in the formation of in-group bias. 

8.  Homevalue Misestimation and Household Behavior: Evidence from China (joint with Nan GAO)

2019, China Economic Review, Vol. 55, 168-180

9. Transfer of Authority within Hierarchies

2017, Review of Economic Design, Vol. 21, 273-290

10. Favor Transmission under Social Image Concerns: An Experimental Study  (joint with Juanjuan MENG)

2016, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Vol. 63, 14-21

11. Fresh Cadres, Fresh Air? Personnel Control, Institutions, and China's Water Pollution (joint with Nan GAO)

2016, Review of Development Economics, Vol.20, 48-61

12. Social Interactions, Internet Access, and Stock Market Participation: An Empirical Study in China (joint with Shiqi GUO)

2015, Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 43, 883-901

Social interaction plays an important role in transmitting relevant information to potential investors. However, the informational role of social interaction might be affected by other information channels, which is to a large extent ignored in previous studies. Using a new household finance survey data covering more than 8,000 Chinese households, we investigate the role of social interaction in individual stock market participation decisions. We find that a better access to Internet and high degree of social interaction both increase stock market participation, but they substitute for each other. In particular, for households with the access to Internet, having the degree of social interaction above the median level in effect is associated with a 6 percentage points decrease in the probability to participate stock market. This finding supports the informational effect of social interaction. Moreover, we also identify a social multiplier effect of social interaction: sociable households living in the communities with higher stock market participation are more likely to invest in stocks. 

13.Optimal Delegation via a Strategic Intermediary

2013, Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 82, 15-30.

I study the optimal design of delegation rule when a principal has to delegate to an informed agent via a strategic intermediary. I show that when the subordinates have opposing biases, the optimal delegation set will involve a "hole": some modest options are precluded. This may shed some new lights on policy threshold effects: small changes in the underlying state cause large policy responses.

14. Exit and Voice: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Customer Complaint Management

2013, Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 18, 177-207.

15. A Game of Thrones: Power Structure and the Stability of Regimes (with Ruixue JIA), 2014, in Karl Warneryd (Eds) The Economics of Conflict: Theory and Empirical Evidence:: Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 79-103.

16. Decentrlization and Military Coups (with Ruixue JIA), 2012, in Chen Bo, Manas Chatterji, Hou Na (Eds.) Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development: Cooperation for a Peaceful and Sustainable World, Part 1:: Vol. 20:: London: Emerald Publisher, pp 149-170.


Working Papers

Attentions Online, Abatement Offline: A Natural Experiment from the Social Media in China (joint with Wei ZOU, Xiaoxing QI), R&R in Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

This paper investigates the real responses of firms and governments in authoritarianism states to social media activities, by exploiting spatial variation in online public attention after the unexpected release of the documentary Under the Dome in China in 2015. We combine several novel datasets and find that a 10 percentage increase in public attention to the documentary induces a  significantly lower firm emission of SO2 and NO by 0.84 percentage and 0.47 percentage, respectively. IV estimation based on the filmmaker’s previous popularity supports the causal relationship. The event-study estimation suggests that the impact of public attention on air quality persists. Further analysis shows that after the release of the documentary, residents significantly raise environmental awareness, adjust energy consumption, and complain more about polluters to local governments. As a response, local governments also strengthen environmental regulation enforcement.


Stay Hungry, and Stay Calm in Upbeat Time: Local Officials’ Early-life Famine Experience and Housing Sector Development in China (joint with Linke HOU, Siyuan LV), R&R in Journal of Regional Science. 

China witnessed the booming housing sector in recent decades, which also entails substantial bubbles and risk to the financial system. This paper shows that local officials’ personal preferences formed through early-life experience play a role in housing sector development. We exploit a county-level panel between 2000 and 2007 and use the Great Famine in 1959-1961 as a natural experiment. Using a specification to exploit the variation of the famine exposure  over county and cross time, we show that local officials’ early-life exposure to more severe famine leads to significantly less development in the housing sector in the jurisdictions, measured by either the ratio of house sale to GDP or the ratio of housing investment to GDP. Our findings remain robust to alternative specifications, placebo tests, and competing hypotheses. Furthermore, we employ satellite nightlight data to show that the early-life famine experience of local officials is negatively correlated with the extent of statistical data manipulation, indicating changing risk attitudes due to early-life famine experiences.


Budgets Rolling and Year-End Spending in China (joint with Yucheng GUO), R&R in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.

Using the Budget Law reform in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the causal impact of Use-it-or-lose-it budget rules on local governments year-end spending spikes. We exploit over 2.8 million government procurement contracts during 2014-2021, and develop a novel method to measure the quality of contract. We show the substantial surges in procurement contracts in the end of the year, and these contracts are more likely of low quality. The difference-in-difference model indicates that after the reform, local governments award 25.8% more procurement contracts, and double spending on procurement in the last month of the year. The year-end spending surges concentrate on goods and construction projects procurement, contracts with high values, and favor local suppliers. We suggest the hierarchical allocation of fiscal funds as the reason underlying the distortion caused by the UILI rules.


Decollectivization and Child adoption in China  (joint with Shukang XIAO), R&R in Journal of Population Economics.

Why do people want to adopt children? In this study, we propose that households may adopt children as a response to an increasing labor demand. To show this, we exploit the county-by-county rollout of land reform in rural China since 1978. The difference-in-differences estimation demonstrates that more sterile households adopt children, mostly girls, after the reform. Further analysis shows that the cause is the rising labor demand induced by the reform. Alternative explanations such as income growth and increasing child abandonment cannot explain our results. The causal relationship holds after controlling for the implementation of the one-child policy. Moreover, the increasing labor demand in rural areas crowds out urban adoptions, and adopted girls have a lower educational attainment than their counterparts after the reform.


The Art of Not Being Chocked: Environmental Awareness, Vote with Feet, and Land Revenue in China (joint with Wei Zou).

This paper investigates the impact of environmental awareness on local fiscal revenue in China. We exploit the unexpected release of the environmental documentary Under the Dome in early 2015 as an exogenous shock on residents’ preferences. The generalized difference-in-difference estimation shows that on average, a one standard deviation increase in exposure to film reduces government land leasing revenue by 21.45 billion yuan. We employ the minimal distance from the city to the birthplace and first workplace of the filmmaker as the instrumental variable for exposure to the film. Consistent with the “vote with feet” mechanism, after the release of this film, residents increase their awareness of air pollution and express a higher intention to move to cleaner cities. Local governments also spend more on environmental protection as a response. This suggests the role of the property market in making authoritarian governments responsive to citizens’ preferences.


Mobile Payments and Crimes: Evidence from China (joint with Hongze JIANG, Leng LING).

This paper examines the effect of popularity of mobile payments on crime occurrence in China. Exploring a universe of criminal judgements issued by courts, we find that local theft crime rate drops by 0.15 standard deviation if an index measuring the extent of popularity of mobile payments increases by one standard deviation; this finding is robust to a series of robustness tests, including the fixed effects model, estimations with additional control variables, two-stage least squares regressions, and the difference in differences approach. There is no evidence of a relation between mobile payment popularity and violent crimes including rape, robbery, and homicide. We also find that the impact of mass adoption of mobile payment on theft crime rate is stronger in cities with more educated residents and higher demands for cash transactions.


Breaking the Drug Trafficking Chains: The Real Name Mailing Regulation and the Decline of Drug Use (joint with Wei ZOU).

Postal service becomes an important channel for drug-trafficking worldwide. This paper examines the impact of the real-name mailing regulation on drug use in a Chinese province. Based on the universe of drug arrest, the difference-in-differences analysis shows that after the implementation of this regulation, on average a town with 10 percent more courier services penetration exhibits a 0.78 percent reduction in drug arrest. This effect persists for at least a year. The early development of courier service industry suggests that in towns with early mulberry trees planting have more courier service penetration. We find no evidence that police activities change or drug users substitute with alternative substances. Further analysis show that the number of first-timers decreases, while the number of repeated users remain. We suggest that this regulation on courier service companies is likely to be a cost-effective method to decrease the supply of drugs.


Presidents' Heel: Hometown Biases and (Mis)allocation of Chinese Universities Fund (joint with Yucheng GUO, Qilin HUANG)

In a top-down bureaucracy, the allocation of university funds is influenced by power. This paper utilizes the public procurement contracts of all Chinese elite universities, and examines the impact of leaders turnover on university procurement. We find that after the appointment of a new president, this university procures significantly more from the suppliers in the president’s hometowns. These procurements tend to be of low quality. We suggest this is due to presidents’ hometown favoritism. Our results demonstrate the distortions of university funds and contribute to understanding the efficiency of R&D spending in China. 


Marx meets Weber: The Dissolution of Communes and the Rise of Religious Public Goods in China (joint with Shukang XIAO).

Cultural behaviors can be shaped and preserved by economic institutions. To investigate this, we examine the causal impact of the rural decollectivization reform in China that took place after 1978 on one cultural public goods supply- the building of religion sites. A staggered difference-in-differences model that analyzes the timing of reform implementation in 1,114 counties finds that the reform resulted in a doubling of the number of newly constructed religious sites. Further evidence suggests that counties with more severe exposure to the Great Famine (1958-61) and a larger income growth experienced a larger impact of the reform, and kinship organizations, which serve as a critical tool in mobilizing individuals, could increase the impact of that policy. We argue that in the commune system before the reform, the demand for religions was suppressed and the reform increased people’s power and resources in building religious sites. These findings demonstrate that economic institutions may shape cultural behaviors in the short term.


中文发表：

"传统宗族文化与商业纠纷治理”（与于文超，朱丽琴 ），《经济科学》，第6期，2023年. 

”地方政府建设智能视频监控系统的影响因素研究“（与郭宇辰，赵玉兰），《复旦公共行政评论》，第27辑，2023年. 

“一波三折” 何以发生: 竞技体育“体能测试” 政策执行的波动逻辑与调适机制 （与赵玉兰、章智琦），《公共管理与政策评论》，第5期，2023年。

“政务新媒体与地方政府信任：来自开通政务微博的证据”（与刘伯凡，赵玉兰，张军），《世界经济》，第5期，2023年。

“激励相容视角下亲清政商关系的全面构建：一个集体行动分析框架“（与赵玉兰），《广东财经大学学报》，第2期，2023年。

”从‘减量’到‘超额’：政策执行波动的过程与机制“（与赵玉兰、汪瑾），《社会发展研究》，第1期，2023年。

“中国政府采购公告数据的使用和潜在问题”（与郭宇辰），《产业经济评论》，第1期，2023年。

”数字金融发展与犯罪治理——来自盗窃罪刑事判决书的证据“（与江鸿泽），《数量经济技术经济研究》，第10期，2022年。

“基因距离、隐性知识与跨国知识流动 ”（与曹春方），《浙江工商大学学报》，第4期，2022年。

“公众关注与环境治理：来自Q纪录片的证据“（与邹伟），《北大政治学评论》，第12期，2022年。

“时间就是金钱：退税无纸化改革、行政负担与企业出口”（与邹伟、胡超），《世界经济》，第10期，2020年。

“嘘气成云：基础设施管理权限配置与区域经济发展”（与邹伟），《财经研究》，第10期，2020年。

“公开能带来效率吗？——政府信息公开影响企业投资效率的经验研究 ”（与于文超，高楠），《经济学》（季刊），第19卷，第3期，2020年。

“金融可得性与互联网金融风险防范——基于网络传销案件的实证分析” （与江鸿泽），《中国工业经济》，第4期，2020年。

“相对绩效考核、地方领导社会关系与地方政府行为”（与周润桦），《经济学报》，第1期 ，2020年。

“警惕政府治理中的“虚假流量””，《人民论坛》，2020年4月（中）。 

"以市场主体获得感为导向优化营商环境"，《中国社会科学报》，2020年4月8日 

“腾飞的翅膀：机场属地化改革与企业库存”（与邹伟），《统计研究》，第11期 ，2019年。

“不确定性，营商环境与民营企业经营活力”（与于文超），《中国工业经济》，第11期，2019年。 

“过度自信、风险偏好和资产配置：来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据 ”（与高楠，何青），《经济学》（季刊），第18卷，第3期，2019年。

“信息的逻辑：部门间关系与新经济动能”，《探索与争鸣》，第7期，2018年（《新华文摘》2018年第23期封面要目全文转载）。

“推动形成营商环境持续改善的体系机制”，《人民论坛》（国家治理周刊），2018年11月20日。 

“税收征管，财政压力与企业融资约束“（与于文超，殷华），《中国工业经济》，第1期，2018年。

“实际权力结构与地方政府行为：理论与实证研究”(与高楠），《经济研究》，第4期，2017年。

“市场、法制环境与区域创新活动”（与于文超，高楠），《科研管理》，第2期，2017年。

“要素禀赋变化与关键性技术创新：现代川菜味型何以形成”，《产业经济评论》，第3期，2016年。

"为什么政府机构越来越膨胀？——部门利益分化视角的分析"（与高楠），《经济研究》，第9期，2015年。

"社会互动、信息渠道与家庭股市参与：基于2011年中国家庭金融调查的实证研究"（与郭士祺），《经济研究》（消费金融专辑），2014年。

“中国烹饪创新背后的经济动力：以川菜发展历程为例”，《经济资料译丛》，第2期，2014年。

——————媒体报道：川人嗜辣非气候与地理原因？ （成都全搜索新闻网）。

“战争的代价”（与文强），《经济学家茶座》第64辑，山东人民出版社，2014年。

“人事变更、法制环境和地方环境污染”（与高楠），《管理世界》第6期，2014年，65——78页。

“晋升激励、市场化与中国政治预算周期”（与高楠），《世界经济文汇》第4期，2014年。

“青春无悔？：知青经历对社会信任的长期影响”（与李佳珈），《世界经济文汇》第2期，2014年，90——109页。

“经济学研究的‘重要性’与‘有趣性’”，《经济学家茶座》第63辑，山东人民出版社，2014年。

“人际关系、间接互惠与信任：一个实验研究”（与孟涓涓），《世界经济》第12期，2013年。

“知青更不信任社会吗？”（与李佳珈），《经济资料译丛》，第4期，2013年。

“制度与国运？——西班牙历史的沉思”，《经济学家茶座》第60辑，山东人民出版社，2013年。

“文艺创作与经济学建模”，《经济学家茶座》第59辑，山东人民出版社，2013年。

“多层科层中的最优序贯授权与‘一刀切’政策”，《经济学》（季刊），第12卷，第1期，2012年。

“中国经济学教育的一块‘飞地’”，《经济学家茶座》第57辑，山东人民出版社，2012年。