Africa's Potential

A Profile of African Countries

Author: Godfrey Mwakikagile

Paperback: 218 pages

Publisher: New Africa Press (17 November 2009)

ISBN-10: 9987160166

ISBN-13: 9789987160167

Africa's Potential

IN terms of natural resources, Africa is known for its minerals – gold and diamonds – probably more than anything else besides wild life especially in countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Botswana and South Africa which have some of the largest game parks in the world attracting hundreds of thousands of tourists to each of those countries every year.

And they are all good investment opportunities but by no means the only ones on this vast land mass endowed with an abundance of natural resources more than any other continent. There is no question that minerals have put Africa on the world map as a prime destination for investors. So has tourism.

However, there are other areas which also provide great investment opportunities in Africa.

One such area in which there is an urgent need for foreign investment in almost all the countries on the continent with the possible exception of South Africa is infrastructural development: transport network, communications facilities, electricity, storage facilities, and factories, without which industrialization is impossible.

Vast amounts of Africa's natural resources remain untapped because of lack of technology and skills, roads and railways, and even bridges. And a lot of it, especially perishable goods, goes to waste because of lack of storage facilities.

Agriculture is another major area of major investment on this continent where tens of millions of people are undernourished and survive on one meal a day in spite of the fact that there are vast areas of arable land which are still not used to produce enough food.

It is ironic that on this agricultural continent with plenty of arable land, millions of people go hungry and cannot feed themselves in spite of the fact that on average every African has four acres of fertile land more than enough to produce food for an entire family. And countries such as Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have enough arable land to feed the entire the continent. Congo (DRC) alone also has enough hydroelectric potential to provide electricity for the entire continent.

Yet all this potential – from minerals to farm land - has not been fully exploited because of lack of technology, skills and investment. In fact, logistical problems are a nightmare almost in every African country except South Africa, hampering exploitation of the continent's resources, and wasting labour, thus impeding progress.

Africa's lack of progress or inability to develop can be looked at from another perspective. And we can't say Africa is developed unless it is industrialised.

Some of the major obstacles which impede industrialisation in Africa are the very same ones which retard economic growth: lack of investments; a weak infrastructure; shortage of energy supplies in spite of the fact that Africa alone has 40 per cent of the world's hydroelectric potential, the largest of any continent, which unfortunately is under-utilised; low levels of technical skills; and the limited scope of domestic markets.

And history is instructive in this context, especially regarding domestic markets. In 1968, in terms of market potential, there were 30 African countries each of which had a population of less than 5 million. That is in a continent of 53 countries.

Compounding the problem was the fact that these small populations were spread over vast expanses of territory, called countries, whose per capita and aggregate purchasing power was almost negligible in terms of sustaining a large domestic market for agricultural and industrial products.

But even if all those problems – besides small population – were solved overnight, most of the African countries simply did not have large domestic markets to justify large-scale investment in industrialisation without coordinating their activities to pursue industrial projects on regional basis. Today, they have large populations but still not large enough individually to achieve rapid economic growth and industrialisation. It is only through regional integration that they can do that.

A regional grouping is in a much stronger position to attract larger investment, especially from foreign investors who have the largest amount of capital, because of its large size for a domestic market and its ability to provide raw materials.

An integrated region is also in a much stronger position to create common services and taxation systems and build a solid infrastructure at the regional level, all of which are vital for rapid economic growth.

In the absence of massive foreign aid, such growth is possible only when the private sector is allowed to flourish and operate as the main engine of progress; something which did not happen in most of the countries across the continent because of massive state intervention in economic activities. State planning was the dominant feature of economic policy in almost every African country, and it impeded progress.

But it is possible to achieve progress on a continental scale because of Africa's enormous potential wealth, unequalled anywhere else in the world. That is something even outsiders who have great interest in our continent readily acknowledge. As Chedly Ayari, president and director-general of the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), stated in his article, “What Strategy for Africa's Development?,” in Africa Report:

"Let us not forget that by helping Africa to develop, we also help ourselves, our children, and grandchildren.

Africa is the poor rich man. There are huge potential resources to be developed for the benefit of Africa as well as mankind as a whole. Hydroelectric potential is one such resource...which accounts for some 40 percent of the world's total....

But the continent also contains 97 percent of the world's chrome, 85 percent of the platinum, 64 percent of the manganese, 25 percent of the uranium, and 13 percent of copper, not to mention bauxite and lead, 20 percent (more since then) of the oil traded in the world – excluding the United States and the Soviet Union, 70 percent of the world's cocoa production, 33 percent of its coffee output, and 50 percent of its palm oil production. And the list is far from complete ." -Chedly Ayari, Africa Report, September-October 1983, pp. 11 and 9).

The list is indeed far from complete. Africa also has most of the world's reserves of gold and diamonds and other minerals including strategic minerals vital to the defence industry of the United States and other Western countries especially the other nuclear powers, Britain and France, as well as non-nuclear Germany which is also the most powerful country in Europe. As Antonio-Gabriel M. Cunha and Joanne Donnelly stated in the early eighties:

"Africa's importance to the industrialized world has for the most part been understated. In addition to being a key supplier of industrial raw materials and soft commodities like coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton, Africa is a primary supplier of strategic and precious metals – cobalt, chromium, tantalum, vanadium, manganese, platinum, and gold – for which the only real alternate source is the Soviet Union." - Antonio-Gabriel M. Cunha and Joanne Donnelly, “Defusing Africa's Debt,” in Africa Report, September-October 1983, pp. 17 – 18).

Yet, there is no question that Africa has a lot of problems in spite of her resources. In fact, her enormous resources have also been a curse, making her a prime target for exploitation by outsiders.

But in spite of all the problems the continent faces, it can still develop just like other regions of the world have. And if there is a model for development African countries can emulate, it is the Asian tigers.

They are not endowed with an abundance of natural resources like many African countries are; and they are Third World countries just like African countries are. They are also relatively young as independent nations, virtually in the same league with African countries in that context. Yet they have outstripped Africa in terms of development in telescoped time as if we live on different planets!

During the past 20 years, all regions of the developing world have forged ahead except Africa. Africa is the only continent that has registered negative or retarded growth when even some of the most remote parts of Asia and Latin America have achieved some progress. In July 2004, the United Nations issued a report stating that Africa was the only continent where poverty had increased in the past 20 years.

Yet it is not “The Lost Continent” as some people, including a number of Africans themselves, have described it. It is not lost because it has the potential to develop; and it is not lost because it can attract investors whose investments can help fuel economic growth.

Again, we may have to look at the Asian tigers to see what they did and emulate them, as fellow Third Worlders, if we are to make quantum leaps in our quest for development on our continent of Africa which is also acclaimed as the origin of mankind.

Besides political instability, civil wars and other forms of strife which have discouraged investors from investing in African counties, corruption has also been one of the major obstacles to investment compounded by bad economic policies.

But southeast Asian countries, the Asian tigers, also have corrupt leaders and corruption is not just a minor problem in those countries even if it is not endemic in some of them as it is in most African countries.

So how have southeast Asian countries which are also corrupt been able to develop and surpass Africa in every conceivable way within a generation since independence?

The colonial experience does not explain the difference. Both regions were colonized. Both emerged from colonial rule around the same time. And both suffered or benefited from colonial rule. If colonial suffering accounts for the disparity, then we Africans need to be reminded that southeast Asian countries suffered even longer, in fact much longer, than we did; and were devastated during World War II in a way our countries were not. Yet they were able to recover and zoomed right past us.

And some amongst us have found clever ways to explain or justify our failure to develop. As the mayor of Eastern Congo's largest city Kisangani, Alauwa Lobela, stated in an interview with Nicholas D. Kristof of The New York Times, 25 May 1997:

"In Africa the climate is such that there's always fruit around, in the back of the house, and you just reach up and pick it when you're hungry. But in Europe and Asia, the climate forced people to get food, to protect themselves from the cold in the winter, to develop a spirit of battle."

Yet we cannot explain why millions of our people are undernourished and starving on this continent of abundance. If we are satisfied with our condition simply eating fruit, while napping under the tropical sun, then we will be sleeping for a long time while others sleep with their eyes wide open, busy working. They include southeast Asians whom we have failed or simply refuse to emulate. And the contrast is glaring.

Since 1965, the per capita incomes of southeast Asia grew 11 times faster than those of sub-Saharan Africa. The question is why such a huge gap in economic performance between the two regions, both of which emerged from colonial rule roughly around the same time during the post-World War II era.

There are several reasons. Economists point to a combination of factors associated with rapid economic growth in East Asia during the post-war period.

Countries like Japan, China, Taiwan and South Korea underwent land redistribution after World War II and became relatively egalitarian nations. That is one prime factor in the acceleration of their economic growth.

The other factors, besides land redistribution which helped transform these countries into egalitarian societies, cited by economists to explain Asian economic success include a well-educated and healthy population; a dramatic decline in birth rates; and open free-market policies emphasizing exports which East Asian nations adopted relatively early, contrasted with Africa.

A combination of all those factors proved to be a potent dose which helped fuel spectacular economic growth in those Asian countries.

They also emphasized fiscal responsibility, contained inflation, vigorously promoted export trade, and kept their currencies undervalued. And they are still following the same combined strategy.

African countries did exactly the opposite. They did nothing to reduce or contain skyrocketing inflation. They squandered money. They discouraged production of export commodities by controlling the economy and imposing very high taxes. And they did not devalue their currencies, a critical step towards rejuvenating weak economies.

Failure to do all that paralyzed African economies and made it impossible for their exports to compete on the world market.

Then there was socialism. Almost all African countries adopted socialist policies in one way or another. And a number of them - for example Ghana under Nkrumah, Guinea under Sekou Toure, Mali under Modibo Keita, and Tanzania under Nyerere - were virulently anti-capitalist.

Capitalism was, and for good reason, identified with colonialism and the colonial powers, all of them capitalist, from whom they had just won independence, and was therefore seen as a system of exploitation whose continuation by the new African nations would only perpetuate their colonial bondage in a new form: neo-colonialism.

In fact, the term neo-colonialism was coined by Nkrumah, and Nkrumah himself together with Nyerere became some of the most vociferous and articulate exponents of the theory of neo-colonialism.

And they were vindicated by history, despite the failure of their socialist policies to develop their countries. Neo-colonialism is a fact of life even today.

By remarkable contrast, East Asian nations, especially the most successful ones, avoided socialism. They were also vindicated by history. Through the decades, socialism proved to be a disastrous failure round the globe, and African countries were among those which suffered the most.

Savings is another factor which has played a vital role in the rapid economic growth of East Asian nations.

Savings are needed to finance new factories and provide capital for investments that stimulate economic growth. Partly because of market incentives and government initiatives, national savings rates have been much higher in Asia, averaging more than 30 per cent of the gross domestic product, than in Africa whose savings rate on average is about only 12 per cent. For example from 1981 to 1990 according to the World Bank, sub-Saharan Africa's savings rate was 12.6 per cent contrasted with 33.2 per cent for South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan; and 31.9 per cent for Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.

And many Africans are well aware of the problem. As Professor Samuel Ndomba at the University of Kisangani in Congo stated: "Our problem is that we don't save. When people get a bit of money, they just spend it to buy a beer."He was quoted by Nicholas Kristof, a reporter of The New York Times, who reported from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in May 1997.

Congo became one of the poorest countries in the world under the kleptocratic regime of Mobutu. Yet it is potentially one of the world's richest even without a national culture of saving. As Nicholas Kristof reported from the diamond-rich city of Kisangani, in The New York Times:

"The area around this river port city in eastern Congo (on the Congo River), is dilapidated and impoverished yet (fertile and) studded with diamonds, like a billionaire on Skid Row.

Back in the 1950's, when this country and several others in Africa were at the same income level as South Korea and while blessed with far more natural resources, it might have seemed reasonable that Africa would soon leave Asia in the dust. Now (resource-poor) South Korea has a per capita income of about $10,000 a year (1997 statistics), and (mineral-rich) Congo stands at $150 per person."

Rotten leadership combined with Western greed ruined the Congo. And failure to save only made things worse through the years.

But besides the profligacy of some individuals, one of the main reasons why many Africans don't save is inflation and political instability compounded by corruption. Money saved ends up being stolen or simply confiscated in many cases in many countries.

There is no one to take to court because government officials and the courts themselves are corrupt, and they work together. The judges are appointed by corrupt politicians, and politicians cannot be locked up by the judges they appointed. And the police who are supposed to be making the arrests are just as corrupt. Therefore they are not going to arrest the culprits who bribe them on regular basis. It is a vicious cycle.

If a lot of money was saved, it would help fuel Africa's economic growth. And it can be done. Southeast nations, the Asian Tigers, have done it. And they continue to do it.

Japan also has done it, as have many other countries. And they continue to do it, except us. For example during the nineteenth century, Japan had very low savings rates. But they went up dramatically because of sustained government campaigns encouraging the people to save.

The savings also increased because of the establishment of savings institutions in different parts of the country where the people could save their money. Eventually, the large national savings were used to finance Japan's industrialization, one of the most successful in history.

Japan also invested heavily in education to train a large number of people who then went on to play a critical role in the country's industrialization and rapid economic growth.

Without a strong educational foundation, and a large educated work force, no country can develop regardless of how much foreign investment is poured into it.

Before anything else, even natural resources, a country needs manpower. It comes first. Look at Singapore, a city state without natural resources. It is one of the most developed countries in the world. It relied on brain power to develop.

Its people are some of the most highly educated in the world, with a large number of scientists who have played a critical role in the country's spectacular economic and industrial growth - without minerals and other natural resources besides its people, the most important natural resource every country has.

Once a country has enough manpower including highly trained and skilled workers, it can then plan the next move, which includes absorbing technical information from the industrialised nations because it already has a critical mass of highly trained people and professionals who constitute the scientific community needed to digest and use that information for national development.

Many developing countries, including ours in Africa, demand technology transfer from the industrialised world without knowing exactly what they are going to do with it. Where are the people who are going to apply the technology? Do we have the scientists needed? And where are the people who are going to read and understand the scientific journals?

There aren't even enough people in African countries who understand the technical journals coming from Europe, North America and other parts of the developed world, let alone those who are going to apply the knowledge after they digest the information contained in those journals and which can also be obtained from other sources including conferences which some African scientists may be able to attend – that's if our governments are willing to pay the air fare for them and give them travelling allowance! As Michael J. Moravcsik and J. Ziman, professors of physics at the University of Oregon and the University of Bristol, respectively, stated in their article, "Paradisia and Dominatia: Science and the Developing World," in the July 1975 edition of Foreign Affairs:

"There are still those who seem unconvinced of the urgency of the need for an indigenous scientific community in a country such as Paradisia. With scientific knowledge and technological know-how available for all on the world market, would it not be easier to import and use whatever is needed, without building "local production facilities" in these commodities?

This commercial metaphor is appropriate, since the essence of this argument is an appeal to the principles of classical liberal economics - the open market, free trade, economies of scale, and the division of labor. Let the great knowledge factories of the advanced countries export their great surpluses of information, fact and theory, in exchange for industrial products manufactured in the newly developed nations.

At the most elementary level, this analogy is entirely fallacious. Scientific knowledge lacks many of the necessary attributes of a commercial commodity, and cannot be fairly bartered for material goods and services. It is not possible simply to "import" science and technology in the absence of an indigenous scientific and technical community....

(In) Japan, the large-scale importation of scientific techniques in recent times was preceded by decades of development of an indigenous scientific and technological community....

Japan's industrial power is now matched by the intellectual resources of a first-class scientific community."

In addition to Japan, each of the other East Asian nations also has a scientific community which is bigger and better trained than any found in black African countries, with the exception of South Africa which inherited a lily-white first-class establishment built by the apartheid regime to perpetuate white supremacy.

But East Asia also has had another big advantage over Africa in terms of manpower in general, besides the large number of scientists and technicians. And that is something African countries cannot achieve within a relatively few years, not even in a generation, as demonstrated by Africa's slow progress through the decades since independence in the sixties; although things could be better, in fact much better.

Countries like South Korea started out on the road towards economic development with citizens who were already more educated, also more healthy and free of debilitating diseases and other health problems such as worm infestation, than those in Africa and other developing regions of the world. And they continued to improve their educational and health services through the decades when African countries were taking their first step on a parallel path towards the same destination.

Health problems are much more serious in Africa than they are in the Asian countries which have achieved rapid economic growth. Parasites, and microbes unheard of in other parts of the world, destroy people and the economy. And Africa is afflicted with all that. As Nicholas Kristof stated in his report from Congo published in The New York Times:

"Health problems have also been a greater economic burden on Africa than is often realized. Most Africans, for example, have stomach worms, and as a result millions of people cannot study or work energetically, and some children have their intelligence permanently impaired because of anemia caused by parasites.

"From the age of two, most people here have worms," shrugged Bakondagama Barandala, a 24-year-old nurse at a shabby clinic in Mambasa, in northeastern Congo.

The clinic is a metaphor for public health in Congo: it is the only clinic in the region, yet it has no doctor, no electricity, no drinking water, no instruments and no medicines."

The government under Mobutu for 32 years did nothing to help the people. And it is the same complaint across Africa. In fact, Africa has suffered a massive brain drain through the years because of such neglect by our governments.

That is why at this writing there are more than 30,000 Nigerian doctors living and working in the United States alone; more than 600 Ghanaian doctors in New York City; and more Sierra Leonean doctors in Chicago than there are in Sierra Leone. And as one member of the European Parliament said in 2006: “There are more nurses from Malawi in Manchester than in Malawi and more Ethiopian doctors in Chicago than Ethiopia.” The list goes on and on.

Harsh working conditions, low salaries hardly enough to live on, bureaucratic interference, political repression – these are some of the reasons highly educated and trained professionals flee our countries in search of better life elsewhere, especially in Western countries. Already, more than 7 million Africans live outside Africa. The vast majority have been forced to flee their home countries, or are afraid to return home, because of harsh living conditions.

The challenge is to create conditions and a climate conducive to retention of professionals and other highly educated people who constitute a critical mass without which Africa cannot develop.

But our countries have not done that. Governments do nothing to help the people, prompting some to recall with nostalgia the "good old days" of colonial rule when things were much better than they are now.

And it is to the same former colonial masters that we have now turned for solutions to our economic problems in terms of adopting capitalism as the best way to achieve our goals.

Foreign aid is not going to develop Africa. In fact, it has not worked. And nothing is going to work as long as corruption remains a major problem. And nothing is going to work if African countries don't integrate their economies at the regional level and attract direct foreign investment on a large scale and on sustained basis.

Even the money given to implement free-market reforms has not always worked, mainly because of rampant corruption and waste. As Michael Chege, a Kenyan professor in the United States, stated in the 3 January 1997 edition of The Times Literary Supplement:

"In the ostensible effort to kick-start self-sustaining and "open" - as opposed to protectionist - capitalist economies in Africa, no region in the world has received as much external aid over the past two decades: $36 per capita in 1993, compared to $8 in Latin America and just $4 in South Asia.

On average, some 16 per cent of that gradually disappearing global share of the African gross domestic product was made up of concessional financial infusions from Western governments and multilateral organisations like the World Bank and the European Commission.

In equally poor Asia, economic recovery is already under way, even though foreign donations as a share of GDP were running at about a third of those of Africa up until the early 1990s."

While Africa continues to lag behind other regions of the world, the continent's economic and political condition continues to deteriorate because of corruption and political instability. Where there has been some improvement, such improvement is either temporary or insignificant considering the enormous problems African countries face in all areas.

Yet they expect foreigners to come and invest in those countries, knowing full well that our leaders have not done enough to create a climate conducive to investment.

First, conditions must be suitable for investment in Africa, and must be constantly improved. And foreigners must have confidence in Africa's economic prospects before risking their investments.

But the primary emphasis by African countries must be on capital accumulation from national savings and domestic investments which is the only way they can fuel and guarantee sustained economic growth for decades to come.

Foreign investments do help, when they are available, and in amounts African countries deem necessary to finance economic development. But that is not always the case. And they are no substitute for locally created wealth as the best source of capital for long-term economic growth.

Dependence on foreign investment to develop a country is suicidal. It should not be the primary source of capital for financing economic projects.

Foreigners invest to help themselves, not to help develop a country in which they invest. If it goes down the drain, they simply pull out and go elsewhere to invest. It is only the citizens of that country who can develop it, with or without foreign investment.

That is one lesson we have not learnt well in Africa as we continue to count on foreigners to develop our countries. And it partly explains why we are so marginalized in the global arena where we should be playing a significant role like other people in other parts of the Third World do.

Although Africa is on the periphery of the mainstream in the global economy, it still is an integral part of the international system run along capitalist lines on terms dictated by the West where our conquerors came from.

Capitalism itself is cruel by nature because it thrives on greed. Paradoxically, it is this very same vice, greed, which is its greatest "virtue" as an incentive to production many African governments failed to achieve under socialism with its re-distributive ethic.

Other governments which did not pursue socialism also failed to develop their economies because of heavy-handed interference in the economy by the state just like their socialist counterparts did. As Tanzania's President Benjamin Mkapa said after the country adopted free-market policies in the nineties: "The Rubicon of reform has been crossed. Government has no business doing business."

He was quoted by Robert S. Greenberger, a reporter of The Wall Street Journal who visited Tanzania and talked to the president and other Tanzanians. The story was published in the 10 December 1996 edition of The Wall Street Journal.

What President Mkapa said is true. No government has any business doing business. Yet it is the responsibility, hence the business, of the government - any government - to protect the weakest members of society from cruel market forces and other predators. Otherwise it cannot justify its existence.

It is this failure by African governments to help and protect their people which has prompted many of them to seek relief elsewhere, especially from the West, including an appeal - out of desperation - by some Africans to our former colonial masters to come back and rule us again.

Globalisation itself, which is a form of penetration of Africa and other developing regions of the world on terms stipulated by the West, has caused a lot of misery and suffering in countries implementing structural adjustment programmes as a mandatory requirement for aid from the World Bank, the IMF and donor nations.

But it has at the same also benefited many people adept at playing the capitalist game in the open field of market forces where the rules of the game are profit making and self-aggrandizement, hoping for a ripple effect to spread the benefits of capitalism to the poor across society.

Whether or not globalisation will help Africa to develop in the long run is one of the most contentious issues of our time. But there are those who feel that, with or without globalisation, Africa may be headed in another direction, and in fact should, because of the failure of African leaders to put our countries on the right track.

It is an idea that is terrifying and infuriating to many, if not the majority. But it is also a prospect whose compelling logic is derived from Africa's terrible experience since independence. However, one thing is certain. We are headed somewhere.

The dreadful prospect some Africans see our countries are facing is re-colonization.

But it does not have to be that way. Foreign investment itself can be a tool for re-colonizing our continent. But if managed carefully, and on terms stipulated by us as well and not just by foreign investors especially multi-national corporations, it can benefit Africa.

There are also other things which we must do to achieve our goals of economic growth and development. With the Asian tigers as Africa's role models, it is critical to always remember what they did in order to develop.

They pursued free-market policies and encouraged entrepreneurship. They promoted local and foreign investment. They also promoted and expanded international trade. But that's not the end of it.

They diversified their economies. They emphasized fiscal responsibility. They encouraged saving and domestic capital accumulation. They trained skilled workers. They invested heavily in health and education, creating a large reservoir of healthy and educated people to develop their economies.

And they emphasized discipline, making southeast Asian countries some of the most productive in modern times; sometimes far more productive than the level of their technological development contrasted with the far more advanced nations of the industrial West.

African countries did none of that, or very little of it, through the years since independence.

And if we still can't do it, forget it. There's no hope for Africa. But there is hope.

Africa's hope includes her ability to attract foreign investment to help harness her enormous potential of natural resources in order to develop the continent, the world's richest, yet the poorest only because she has not been able to use her resources for her own benefit for obvious reasons: technological backwardness and exploitation of her immense wealth by outsiders for their own benefit with Africans getting very little in return.

Yet Africa has the ability to redress this imbalance if she works in partnership with foreign investors, not as a subordinate but as an equal partner in pursuit of her own interests, on her own soil, as the rightful owner of all the resources on this magnificent continent that is so well-endowed more than any other on planet Earth.

And in spite of its infrastructural and institutional decay, one of its biggest incentives for investment is mineral wealth. Most of the world's diamonds come from Africa. It is also synonymous with gold. Johannesburg, Africa's symbol of wealth, is appropriately called the City of Gold.

Africa also has 99 per cent of the world's chromium, 85 per cent of its platinum, 70 per cent of its tantalite, 68 per cent of its gold, and 54 of its gold. And the list goes on and on as the world's treasure trove.

Africa also large deposits of petroleum and gas. Nigeria, Libya and Angola are some of the world's biggest producers of oil. Other major oil producers include Gabon, the Congo Republic also known as Congo Brazzaville, Cameroon, Chad, Sudan, and Equatorial Guinea whose reserves of oil which were discovered only in the mid-1990s made this tiny African country one of the largest producers in the world.

Petroleum, and its derivatives, is destined to play a major role in shaping the destiny of the continent probably more than any other natural resource because of its importance to the world economy and to the survival of the industrial nations. And there are other African countries, such as Egypt, the Democratic of Congo (DRC) and the Ivory Coast, which have significant petroleum deposits. Others also have the potential to be oil producers in the future.

Others include Ghana, and Zambia whose oil deposits were discovered only in 2006. Then in June 2007, a major oil discovery was made in Ghana. According to BBC Africa in its report, “Huge Oilfield Discovered in Ghana,” 18 June 2007:

"UK firm Tullow Oil has announced the discovery of 600 million barrels of light oil offshore from Ghana.

Reserves in the Mahogany exploration well were far greater than the 250 million barrels the firm had earlier forecast, it said.

Tullow...jointly owns the West Cape block...with Anadarko Petroleum. The firms share rights to the adjacent Tano basin which could yield more oil.

'Based on evidence to date, ultimate reserves are likely to be materially in excess of previous estimates, with some high potential zones still to be drilled,' said Tullow executive Aidan Heavey.

He said it was one of the biggest oil discoveries in Africa in recent times, but warned it could be up to seven years before the oil started to flow.

Ghana's President John Kufuor told the BBC that the discovery would give a major boost to Ghana's economy....

The move comes as foreign firms are increasingly tapping into Africa for oil."

There are also bright prospects that the coastal areas of Tanzania including the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba, especially Pemba, may have petroleum deposits in large quantities. Already, large quantities of natural gas have been discovered in the southern coastal area of Tanzania enough to last about 100 years according to recent projections.

In July 2007, it was announced that significant amounts of oil deposits had been found in Tanzania.

But such a blessing could also be a curse because of intrigues by the big powers to secure and promote their interests at our expense. According to a report by Ernest Mpinganjira, “Tanzania: Local Oil Invites Americans,” in the East African Standard, Nairobi, Kenya, 8 July 2007:

"Last week, Tanzania announced that it had hit commercially viable oil deposits along its coast. This comes just over one year after Uganda struck its own black gold in the west.

And suddenly rumours of Americans calling on the region are rife.

There are speculations that the United States is planning increased presence in the region by creating a military command to be based in either East Africa or South Africa.

The Tanzanian oil find stoked further debate over the mandate of the recently created US Africa Command (Africom), an American military frontier outpost in Africa set to come into effect in September next year.

The mandate of the command is expected to be much more than "to kill or capture al Qaeda fighters," according to a story published last Monday by defence writers Thomas P.M. Barnett and Bryan Christie based at the Pentagon, the US defence headquarters.

The story provided fresh insights into why the US is moving in earnest to put in place Africom to check China's growing economic and military clout in East Africa.

Political antennae in the West have pricked oil prospectors' hopes in the past two years that before 2020, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia and chaotic Somalia would have had a clear picture of their 'oil status.'

Traditional oil producers in the Middle East and Latin America are tightening grip on their resource. Which is why East Africa is believed to be the next oil frontier the West appears determined to hold onto.

"With its vast natural and mineral resources, Africa remains strategically important to the West, as it has been for hundreds of years, and its geo-strategic significance is likely to rise in the 21st century," an American security expert John CK Daly wrote in an online story in ISN Security Watch magazine published in Zurich, Switzerland, last week.

United States will take charge of the region

Daly said the remit of Africom, which comes into effect next year, is still largely ambiguous, although "African nations remain cool to the idea amid fears of mission creep and unclear US intentions".

"From next year, the United States will take charge of security in the region to counter the growing spectre of international terrorism, but according defence and economic experts, the US is positioning itself to neutralise Chinese influence in East Africa, which has been receiving attention from the world's fastest growing economy," Daly, a consultant and an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, said.

The US military involvement in Africa is shared among the US European Command, the US Central Command and the US Pacific Command.

Defence Secretary Robert Gates called this divided responsibility "an outdated arrangement left over from the Cold War."

Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee four months ago that creating Africom would "enable us to have a more effective and integrated approach than the current arrangement of dividing Africa between different regional commands".

President George W Bush has ordered that Africom be created by September 2008. A top-ranking, four-star military officer who will serve on equal footing with other regional US commanders around the globe will head it.

Bush announced on February 2, that the US planned to consult African leaders "to seek their thoughts on how Africa Command can respond to security challenges".

He also said the US would "work closely with our African partners to determine an appropriate location for the new command in Africa".

It expected that East Africa or South Africa would host the command given their proximity to the volatile Middle East.

Another US defence expert, James Jay Carafano, added, "The US is facing increasing international pressure to play a more prominent role on the world's most troubled continent. The continuing civil wars in Liberia and the Congo, the spectre of tyranny and man-made famine in Zimbabwe, the global spread of infectious diseases and the rising threat of international terrorism in East Africa are all issues of mounting concern."

Carafano, a defence scholar, said, "A dedicated command could also more efficiently oversee US anti-terrorism efforts in East Africa and provide American political leaders with more thoughtful, informed military advice based on an in-depth knowledge of the region and continuous planning and intelligence assessments."

Carafano pulled the veil off the Africom project, observing, "With its vast natural and mineral resources, Africa remains strategically important to the West, as it has been for hundreds of years, and its geostrategic significance is likely to rise in the 21st century. According to the National Intelligence Council, the United States is likely to draw 25 per cent of its oil from West Africa by 2015, surpassing the volume imported from the Persian Gulf."

In addition, he added, "Africa has the world's fastest rate of population growth. The continent's population has doubled since 1970 to nearly 900 million and is expected to rise to 1.2 billion by 2020. This will be greater than the populations of North America and Europe combined."

President Bush has demonstrated a willingness to commit more resources in support of a US overall Africa strategy. Washington has significantly increased assistance to Africa to deal with the HIV/Aids scourge. The proposed Millennium Challenge Account is another initiative designed to address the failures of traditional aid programmes.

The recently unveiled $100 million US counter-terrorism package for East Africa was also a welcome step in the right direction. The Central Command (Centcom) countries in or near the Horn of Africa area are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan.

Africom may be pushed beyond its objectives

Against this backdrop, the analysts pointed out, economic and energy resources concerns are the core of US interest in East Africa. Anti-terrorism, they said, is just a smokescreen to lure governments for sustained commercial ties with the West.

Daly remarked, "Many Africans fear that the nexus of energy, poverty and terrorism may swiftly push Africom beyond its stated humanitarian objectives. The rising violence in Nigeria's Delta region may well be the rock upon which Africom's humanitarian focus flounders."

He said the region borders the critical sea lines of communication through the Red Sea. Famine, drought, and disease ravage the region, and civil wars in most of these countries have further exacerbated the problems.

Writing last week on US involvement in the Somali turmoil, two American defence experts, Thomas P.M. Barnett and Bryan Christie, put the perceived ulterior motives in perspective using early this year's Ethiopian intervention in the Somali imbroglio.

Quoting military intelligence, the two reported, "When the invading Ethiopians quickly enjoyed unexpected success, Centcom's plan became elegantly simple: Let the blitzkrieging Ethiopian army drive the UIC (Union of Islamic Courts) along with its foreign fighters and al Qaeda operatives, south out of Mogadishu and toward the Kenyan border, where Kenyan troops would help trap them on the coast."

In a similar manner, the region could be pushed into a box after Chinese influence fades."

For some inexplicable reason, the oil “discovery” was not reported in any of the Tanzanian newspapers during that time. But the report of the “discovery” in the Kenyan East African Standard was carried by other media as well, including allafrica.com, even though there may have been speculation in some quarters that the reporter may have been overzealous in his report, especially since he did not cite any official or credible source or sources in Tanzania confirming the discovery.

However, there have been reports in recent years stating that East Africa may have substantial oil deposits which have not yet been discovered. According to a report by Kevin J. Kelly, “New Survey Shows East Africa May Have Huge Oil Deposits,” in The East African, Nairobi, Kenya, 10 May 2004:

"Experts are expecting big oil discoveries in East Africa that could significantly alter the region's economic fortunes.

Results of recent geological surveys suggest that East Africa may soon become one of the world’s hottest oil exploration zones, with data analysed last year by Jebco Seismic, a UK-based geophysical contractor, showing major oil deposits off the coasts of Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar.

In addition, the same rock formations now yielding large quantities of oil in Sudan are known to stretch into Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, says Jebco marketing director Chris Machette-Downs.

"It is an unusual system, both geologically and in terms of the quality of some of the oil. Some sites in Sudan have generated oil you could pour straight into your Jeep," said Mr Machette-Downs.

Kenya, for instance, has been agog with talks of oil prospects leading to a series of exploration expeditions, especially at the coastal strip.

An official at Kenya's Ministry of Energy, Wangari Githii, last week told The EastAfrican that the data obtained from the Kenyan offshore by Woodside Energy company is being interpreted in Australia with the hope that "we will strike oil."

Earlier surveys done by the US Department of the Interior found that the Kenyan coastal strip has the potential of producing about 100 million barrels of crude oil and over 600 million cubic feet of natural gas.

The same sentiments are held in Tanzania, where the Commissioner for Energy, Petroleum and Gas in the Ministry of Minerals and Energy, Basil Mrindoko last week told The EastAfrican, "The search for oil continues–We have yet to confirm that we have oil, but the presence of natural gas as a hydrocarbon was an early sign that there is hope," he said.

Tanzania, for instance, will from next month be pumping natural gas from Songo Songo island in the southern Tanzanian waters of the Indian Ocean to Dar es Salaam, 232 km away. The island is said to have huge gas reserves, enough to last about 40 years.

Mr Mrindoko said two companies were already actively searching for oil: Ndovu Resources at Nyuni and Panafrica Energy at Songo Songo area. The government is in the process of finalising arrangements with another two or three companies that have also shown interest in oil exploration.

n Uganda, three international oil companies have so far invested more than $20 million in prospecting for oil, a senior official at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development said last week.

An Assistant Commissioner with the Petroleum Exploration and Production Department, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, Ernest N.T. Rubondo, said that oil exploration in Uganda had resulted in the sinking of three exploration oil wells.

The exploration is taking place in the Albertine Graben, the northernmost part of the western arm of the East African Rift Valley system along Lake Albert in northwestern Uganda.

The companies include Heritage Oil and Gas Ltd, which was in 1997 licensed to prospect Area Three in the Semiliki Basin. Hardman Resources and Energy Africa were licensed in 2001 for exploration of Area Two in the Northern Lake Albert Basin, which borders the Democratic Republic of Congo.

If expected discoveries are made in the next year or two, East Africa could begin producing significant amounts of oil early in the next decade, Mr Machette-Downs calculates. He cautions, however, that not all suspected "sweet spots" will fulfil their promise.

"We’re not going to get the masses of petroleum we have had in Nigeria," said Mr Machette-Downs, who, however, added that he does expect the East Africa finds to be larger than those of secondary sources in West Africa, such as Gabon.

Much of the oil pumped from wells in East Africa would likely be exported to the emerging industrial giants of Asia, Mr Machette-Downs suggests. Just as most of West Africa’s oil makes its way to ports in the US, East African oil could be most efficiently shipped to energy-hungry customers in India and China.

The prospect of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda emerging as significant oil suppliers may account for China’s growing diplomatic and economic involvement in East Africa, Mr Machette-Downs says.

At the same time, East African countries would benefit directly from major oil discoveries within their borders. Abundant domestic supplies would eliminate the need for oil imports, thus producing considerable savings for businesses as well as generating ample tax revenues for governments, besides ecological gains.

In a separate interview with a US State Department publication, Mr Machette-Downs cited the example of Tanzania, of which he says "Just a little oil there would solve so many problems; Tanzanians would not have to chop down the rest of their trees just to produce energy."

Until recently, East Africa’s potential oil fields remained underexplored for a variety of reasons. Petroleum prospectors point to the instability that has plagued parts of the sub-region, the remoteness of some sites, and the challenges posed by geological factors.

It now seems clear to Mr Machette-Downs and other specialists that most of these obstacles will be overcome or circumvented

Some of the most encouraging sites in Kenya and Tanzania lie offshore – which would allow shipments to be made much more easily than from fields far upcountry, such as in western Uganda. In addition, technological advances in recent years have prompted experts to take a second look at test results that appeared unpromising a decade or two ago.

The source of all these potential deposits is the East African Rift and adjoining formations. While the interior sections of the rift zone consist mainly of volcanic rock, the system has been found to contain several sedimentary basins as well. It is from those onshore and offshore basins that oil would be extracted.

This could be welcome news for Kenya, where oil explorations have been going on since 1950s without tangible results.

Compared with Sudan, which has sunk about 80 wells, Kenya has only sunk about 30 test wells despite the fact that Sudanese oil fields are more or less geologically the same as Kenya's Northern Rift Valley. Experts, however, explain that the exorbitant cost has been a major constraint. A single well could cost as much as Ksh400 million ($5 million).

As a result, explorations can only be done by companies who sign production sharing agreements, with the hope of recovering their money once they strike oil.

The Kenya government gives the National Oil Corporation of Kenya – the government agency that licenses and markets explorations – Ksh100 million ($1.28 million) annually to undertake preliminary surveys, from which the data is sold to various companies that might be interested in explorations.

Despite lack of serious explorations in Tanzania, records show that oil presence had been noted on Pemba Island as far back as 1977."

Fred Oluoch in Nairobi (Kenya), Faustine Rwambali in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and David Musoke in Kampala (Uganda) contributed to the report.

There was also a report in a Tanzanian newspaper about three years later implying that there were significant amounts of petroleum deposits in East Africa. According to the report by Adam Ihucha, “Huge Oil, Gas Deposits Wait for Investors,” in The Guardian, Dar es Salaam, 8 March 2007:

"President Jakaya Kikwete yesterday called on investors to make full utilization of huge but untapped oil and gas potentials in the East African region.

Addressing the third East African Petroleum Conference here (in Arusha, northern Tanzania), President Kikwete advised them to invest in the petroleum services sector in order to seize the existing vast potentials.

“The East Africa region is rich in oil and gas resources, which are under-explored,” he said as he opened the meeting that deliberated on the region`s petroleum potential and investment opportunities.

“I call upon investors represented here to seriously look at these potentials then establish petroleum service companies. The region is very keen to see investment in both oil and gas exploitation,” he added.

The three-day conference, dubbed EAPC '07, Kikwete`s brainchild, has been organized under the main theme: “Together Unveiling the Untapped Oil and Gas Potential.”

He said East Africa was not only a source of gas and oil resources, but also provided potential markets for petroleum and related products.

Oil consumption in East Africa stands at over 32 million barrels per year, while demand for petroleum in the world market is above 82.5 million barrels per day, which is growing at the rate of 1.3 percent.

“Increased demand and prices in the world market provide an opportunity for East Africa to benefit from its potentials,” President Kikwete said.

He appealed to investors to be innovative by charting out cost-effective strategies in the utilization of oil resources.

“It is high time that companies that have signed agreements with our governments, which are licensed to explore these resources, became serious and fulfilled their commitments,” said Kikwete.

The President said partnership between investors and government should also benefit local communities surrounding the investments.

“This is the biggest challenge. We have to ensure that exploitation of these resources benefits our people and investors, and contributes to our countries' growth,” he added.

For his part, East African Community (EAC) Secretary General Juma Mwapachu said the meeting, which attracted about 300 delegates, had been convened at a time when the energy sector globally faces unprecedented change and uncertainty.

“Increased demand for energy, especially in developing economies, the shifting of supplies of oil and natural gas to the remote and often geopolitically unstable areas and environmental impacts, are some of the factors behind the mess,” Mwapachu said.

“These unprecedented challenges demand complex and urgent responses cutting across strategic, organizational, operational, and technological and investment decisions,” he said.

The EAPC '07 comes against a backdrop of the recent discovery of commercial oil and gas deposits in the region.

In collaboration with experts, the East African (EA) partner states - Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda- are currently drawing up policies and strategies to facilitate effective exploration of these resources.

An official from the Petroleum Exploration and Production Department of Uganda`s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, Fred Kabanda, said Uganda had licensed six companies to undertake petroleum exploration.

“We are currently considering another five applications. In fact, the region is becoming famous in terms of petroleum development. More companies are coming for petroleum exploration in the Rift Valley base in Kenya, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo. There are also offshore sites in Tanzania that are being explored,” he said.

Reports say two companies, Hardman Resources Ltd and Tullow Oil, discovered a significant amount of oil deposits at the Waraga-1, Mputa-1 and Mputa-2 wells in the west Uganda.

Tanzania is producing natural gas from its Songo Songo field, while another field, the Mnazi Bay Gas, is being developed for a gas-to-electricity project.

In Kenya, Woodside Energy Ltd has acquired more than 11,000 line kilometres of additional 2D seismic data in offshore areas.

China National Oil Company has also signed Production Sharing Contracts with the government of Kenya for six onshore blocks in the areas of Lamu, Anza and Mandera Sedimentary Basins.

According to information available at the EAC secretariat, a number of oil companies have shown interest in both offshore and onshore blocks in Kenya."

So, while we hope for the best in our search for oil and other natural resources, and in our interactions with the major powers and others, we should also be prepared for the worst, knowing full well that those who come to invest in Africa - regardless of where they come from - are not necessarily our friends.

Besides oil and minerals such as gold and diamonds, Africa's forests also have been a major attraction and source of investment because of the timber available. Some of the biggest investors in this field have come from southeast Asia – Malaysia and other countries in that region.

Another major competitor – from Asia – for Africa's resources and investment opportunities in the continent is India, besides China and the Asian tigers. They all compete for minerals and for other resources as well. And they are now locked in competition with the West for Africa's oil and other minerals.

Bauxite and uranium are some of the minerals which are also found in Africa in large quantities. For example, Guinea has some of the largest deposits of bauxite in the world which are largely untapped; and Niger has some of the world's largest deposits of uranium, also largely untapped.

Large deposits of coal in countries such as South Africa and Tanzania, and of iron ore and manganese in other countries, have made Africa a potential producer of steel vital to the industrialization of the continent, making it self-sufficient in the production of this essential commodity without which it cannot develop let alone industrialize.

The fundamental question is whether or not all this wealth is going to benefit Africa, especially the masses who constitute the bulk of the population in every country on the continent, or just the elite and the foreigners who invest in the continent. So far it has not.

The biggest beneficiaries have been foreign investors, especially Westerners who have always had the upper hand in Africa, and the local elite who work in collusion with foreign interests to exploit the continent, ignoring the masses and Africa's well-being.

Instead of being a blessing, Africa's enormous wealth in terms of natural resources has been a curse, fuelling corruption, civil wars and environmental degradation, thus perpetuating poverty. Even Africa's enormous agricultural potential in a continent where farming constitutes the backbone of the economy has not alleviated the plight.

But if the investments are managed properly by African governments, they can help to redress this imbalance provided there is genuine commitment on the part of the leaders to help their people instead of just helping themselves. And there is no question that with the right environment conducive to investment, Africa will continue to attract investors as never before in this era of globalisation.

The oil sector alone attracts more than 50 per cent of all the foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into Africa. In 2006, annual foreign direct investment in Africa reached $38.8 billion. That was an increase of 78 per cent from 2004. According to the UN World Investment Report, FDI was concentrated in only a few areas, mostly oil, gas, and mining. And only six countries, all of them oil producers, attracted 48 per cent of that. They were Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Algeria, Chad, Egypt, and Sudan.

About two-thirds of the foreign direct investment going to Africa comes from Europe. More than half of that comes from the United Kingdom and France, two powers which had the largest number of colonies in Africa, and their investments go to countries with which they have historic ties as former colonies. For example, Shell British Petroleum (BP) has invested heavily in the Niger Delta in Nigeria; and French oil companies have invested heavily in Gabon, Cameroon, Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, and even in the Ivory Coast in spite of the country's political turmoil since 2000 which virtually split the country into two: north and south.

The United States is another major player on the scene, flexing its muscles as well - including threats to use military force - to protect its interests on the continent. American oil companies - for example ExxonMobil and Chevron - are the biggest investors in Angola and Equatorial Guinea, some of the most oil-rich countries in the world.

The West African countries - Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon on the coast of central West Africa, together with Angola in the southwestern part of the continent - already supply about 12 per cent of the oil consumed by the United States. And American authorities predict this will rise to 25 per cent by 2015.

And to ensure a steady supply of oil for its needs and obtain other natural resources vital to its survival, the United States set up an African military command in February 2007 known as Africom in order to establish bases and forge military ties with governments in Ghana, Gabon, Mali, Senegal, and Namibia which does not have oil - at least not known at the moment - but whose minerals are critical to the industrial survival and progress of Western countries, not just the United States.

The United States has also aggressively intervened in Africa as a counterweight to Chinese penetration of the continent which China considers to be a vital source of oil and other resources it needs to fuel its rapid industrial growth.

Some of the countries which rank high on China's list as a source of vital resources include Nigeria, the Democratic of Congo (DRC), South Africa, Angola, Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, Sudan (almost exclusively for oil since the country doesn't have much else in terms of resources), and Equatorial Guinea also for oil more than anything else. Zambia is also on the list as a source of copper and cobalt like the DRC which also has many other minerals China needs.

In fact, China is now the second-largest consumer of oil after the United States in the entire world and was responsible for 40 per cent of the global increase in demand for oil between 2001 and 2005. At least 25 per cent of its oil comes from Africa.

China's influence is now global in scope, its growth fuelled by the economic giant's insatiable appetite for raw materials and markets for its products which its huge and robust economy is producing in massive quantities everyday. According to a report from Karratha, Australia, by William Foreman of the Associated Press (AP), 1 September 2007:

"For nearly three decades, Chinese peasants have left their villages for crowded dormitories and sweaty assembly lines, churning out goods for world markets. Now, China is turning the tables.

Here in the Australian Outback, Shane Padley toils in the scorching heat, 2,000 miles from his home, to build an extension to a liquefied natural gas plant that feeds China's ravenous hunger for energy.

At night, the 34-year-old carpenter sleeps in a tin dwelling known as a "donga," the size of a shipping container and divided into four rooms, each barely big enough for a bed. There are few other places for Padley to live in this boomtown.

Duct-taped to the wall is a snapshot of the blonde girlfriend he left behind and worries he may lose. But, he says, "I can make nearly double what I'd be making back home in the Sydney area."

The reason: China.

For years, China's booming economy touched daily life in the West most visibly through the "made-in-China" label on everything from clothes to computers. But now, economic growth is giving rise to something more that can't be measured just by widgets and gadgets — a shift in China's balance of power with the rest of the world.

China's reach now extends from the Australian desert through the Sahara to the Amazonian jungle — and it's those regions supplying goods for China, not just the other way around. China has stepped up its political and diplomatic presence, most notably in Africa, where it is funneling billions of dollars in aid. And it is increasingly shaping the lifestyle of people around the world, as the United States did before it, right down to the Mandarin-language courses being taught in schools from Argentina to Virginia.

China, like the United States, is also learning that global power cuts both ways. The backlash over tainted toothpaste and toxic pet food has been severe, as has the criticism over China's support for regimes such Sudan's.

To understand why China's influence is increasingly pushing past its borders, just do the math.

When 1.3 billion people want something, the world feels it. And when those people in ever increasing numbers are joining a swelling middle class eager for a richer lifestyle, the world feels it even more.

If China's growth continues, its consumer market will be the world's second largest by 2015. The Chinese already eat 32 percent of the world's rice, build with 47 percent of its cement and smoke one out of every three cigarettes.

China's desire for expensive hardwood to turn into top-quality floorboards for its luxury skyscrapers has penetrated deep into the Amazon jungle. For example, in the isolated community of Novo Progresso, or New Progress in Portuguese, one of the biggest sawmills was started by the mayor with financing from Chinese investors.

China accounts for 30 percent of the wood exported from logging operations in remote towns across Brazil's rain forest, where trucks carry the finished product hundreds of miles along muddy roads to river ports, said Luiz Carlos Tremonte, who heads an influential wood industry association. Many Chinese purchasers now travel to Brazil to clinch deals, and are almost always accompanied at business meetings by friends or relatives of Chinese descent who live there.

"Ten years ago no one knew about China in Brazil; then the demand just exploded and they're buying a lot," Tremonte said. "This wood is great for floors, and they love it there."

The Bovespa stock index in Brazil has climbed more than 300 percent since 2002, riding the China wave.

China is buying coal mining equipment from Poland and drilling for oil and gas in Ethiopia and Nigeria. It has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Zambia's copper industry. It is the world's biggest market for mobile phones, headed for 520 million handsets this year. The list goes on.

Along with looking to other countries for goods for its people, China is also going far and wide in search of markets for its products.

In war-torn Liberia, where electricity is hard to come by, Chinese-made Tiger generators keep the local economy humming. Costlier Western brands, favored by aid agencies and diplomats, are beyond the reach of small business owners such as Mohammed Kiawu, 30, who runs a phone stall in the capital, Monrovia.

Along with looking to other countries for goods for its people, China is also going far and wide in search of markets for its products.

A used Tiger generator costs around $50, he said over the steady beat of his generator. "But even $250 is not enough to buy a used American or European generator. They are not meant for people like myself."

Along with looking to other countries for goods for its people, China is also going far and wide in search of markets for its products.

The Chinese generators are more prone to break down, Kiawu said. When the starter cable snapped on one, he replaced it with twine. But by making items for ordinary people, he predicted, China "will take control of the heart of the common people of Africa soon."

China is having to make up for decades of economic stagnation after the communist takeover in 1949.

When Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping began dabbling in economic reforms in 1978, farmers were scraping by. By 2005, income had increased sixfold after adjusting for inflation to $400 a year for those in the countryside and $1,275 for urban Chinese, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics.

"The Chinese don't want war — the Chinese just want to trade their way to power," said David Zweig, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. "In the past, if a state wanted to expand, it had to take territory. You don't need to grab colonies any more. You just need to have competitive goods to trade."

If China stays on the same economic track, it would become the world's largest economy in 2027, surpassing the United States, according to projections by Goldman, Sachs & Co., a Wall Street investment bank. And unlike Japan, which rose in the 1980s only to fade again, China still has a huge pool of workers to tap and an emerging middle class that is just starting to reach critical mass. Many development economists believe China still has 20 years of fairly high growth ahead.

But the transition to a larger presence on the global stage comes with growing pains, for China and the rest of the world.

As Beijing plays an ever bigger role in the developing world, some Western countries fear it could undermine efforts to promote democracy. In its attempt to secure markets and win allies, China is stepping up development aid to Africa and Asia.

Chinese President Hu Jintao pledged last year to double Chinese aid to Africa between 2006 and 2009, promising $3 billion in loans, $2 billion in export credits and a $5 billion fund to encourage Chinese investment in Africa. China has also promised Cambodia a $600 million aid package and agreed to loan $500 million to the Philippines for a rail project.

But China also extends aid to states such as Myanmar, Zimbabwe and Sudan whose human rights records have lost them the support of the West. Actress Mia Farrow has labeled next year's Beijing Olympics — a point of pride for China — the "genocide Olympics" because of China's support for Sudan, at a time when the West seeks to punish it for its military actions in Darfur. China buys two-thirds of Sudan's oil output

"In some ways, it will be integrating us into a new international order in which democracy as we've known it or the right to open organized political activity is no longer considered the norm," said James Mann, author of "The China Fantasy," a book about China and the West

"In some ways, it will be integrating us into a new international order in which democracy as we've known it or the right to open organized political activity is no longer considered the norm," said James Mann, author of The China Fantasy, a book about China and the West.

China is also facing some of the unease that powers before it have encountered.

In Africa and Asia, some complain that massive China-funded infrastructure projects involve mostly Chinese workers and companies, rather than create jobs and wealth for the local population. And Moeletsi Mbeki, a political commentator and brother of South African President Thabo Mbeki, likens the trade of African resources for Chinese manufactured goods to former colonial arrangements.

"This equation is not sustainable," Mbeki said at a recent meeting of the African Development Bank in Shanghai. "Africa needs to preserve its natural resources to use in the future for its own industrialization."

The backlash is also coming on the consumer front, with Chinese goods earning a dubious reputation for quality. In the United States, there is a furor over the standard of Chinese imports. In Bolivia, vendors peel off or paint over any indication that their wares were "Hecho en China," Spanish for "Made in China."

A woman selling bicycles in El Alto, a poor city outside the capital, La Paz, insisted they were made in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan or even India. With some prodding, she acknowledged the truth. "They're all Chinese," she said, declining to give her name lest it hurt her business. "But if I say they're Chinese, they don't sell."

Even those who benefit from China's growth express some wariness. Aerospace giant Boeing expects China to be the largest market for commercial air travel outside the United States in the next 20 years, buying more than $100 billion worth of commercial aircraft, U.S. trade envoy Karan Bhatia said in a recent speech.

"Right now, we're hiring every week," noted Connie Kelliher, a union leader. "Things couldn't be better."

Yet Boeing workers remain wary of China's ambitions to build its own planes. next year China plans to test-fly a locally made midsize jet seating 78 to 85 passengers. It also has announced plans to roll out a 150-seat plane by 2020.

"It's kind of a double-edged sword," Kelliher said. "You want the business and we want to get the airplane sales to them, but there's the real concern of giving away so much technology that they start building their own."

That's what happened to Western and Japanese automakers, which made inroads in the Chinese market only to see their designs copied and technologies stolen. Already, China's vehicle manufacturers are venturing overseas, exporting 325,000 units last year — mostly low-priced trucks and buses to Asia, Africa and Latin America.

"We're taking a bigger piece of the pie," said Yamilet Guevara, a sales manager for Cinascar Automotriz, which has opened 20 showrooms in Venezuela in the past 18 months, offering cars from six Chinese makers. "They ask by name now. It's no longer just the Chinese car. It's the Tiggo, the QQ."

China's biggest car company, Chery Automobile Co., just announced a deal with the Chrysler Group to jointly produce and export cars to Western Europe and the United States within 2 1/2 years.

Given the speed of China's ascent, it's perhaps not surprising that China itself is trying to calm some of the fears. Its slogan for the Beijing Olympics: "Peacefully Rising China."

Jonathan Paye-Layleh, a Liberian journalist based in Monrovia, Liberia, who also works for “BBC Africa” was among those who contributed to this report by William Foreman on China's increasing global influence.

It is something we Africans have to seriously think about in terms of the future of our continent. What are its implications? Is it good for us? Or is it bad for us? Are we going to run out of resources – if we keep on selling them to outsiders – which we ourselves need to industrialise?

Is China a threat to Africa's well-being as much as the West has been since Western powers conquered us and which, together with the United States, continue to exploit us?

While this emerging super power was not a participant in the first scramble for Africa, it is now, together with the United States and other Western countries, one of the most active players on the African geopolitical scene in the second scramble which, if unchecked, could prove to be more dangerous than the first.

A Profile of African Countries

Author: Godfrey Mwakikagile

Paperback: 218 pages

Publisher: New Africa Press (17 November 2009)

ISBN-10: 9987160166

ISBN-13: 9789987160167