人口問題
Schedule:
1. イントロダクション
2. 人口学の基本的なコンセプト
3. 人口代謝の理論
4. 人口転換の理論
5. 人口配当の理論
6. 将来人口の推計
7.人間の寿命とその決定要因
8. 少子化対策と置換水準の呪い
9. 結婚と離婚
10. ビジネスと人口学
11. 貧困の計測
12. 都市化・国内移住
13. 国際移住の人口学
14. 人権と人口学
15. まとめ
Textbook:
Lutz, W. (2021) "Advanced Introduction to Demography", Edward Elgar Publishing
Optional Readings:
マッシモ・リヴィ-バッチ著(2014). 『人口の世界史』, 東洋経済新報社
鬼頭宏著(2015)『上智大学の学生たちの熱い関心を集めた 愛と希望の「人口学講義」』, ウェッジ
Wachter, K.W. (2014). "Essential Demographic Methods". Harvard University Press
Reading List:
1. イントロダクション
2. 人口学の基本的なコンセプト
-Wachter, K.W. (2014). Essential Demographic Methods. Harvard University Press. Chapters 1 and 2
-Preston, S., P. Heuveline, and M. Guillot. (2001). ”Demography: Measuring & Modeling Population Processes”
3．人口代謝の理論
-Lutz, W. (2021)
-Ryder, N. (1965) “The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change,” American Sociological. Review 30(6): 843–861
4. 人口転換の理論と歴史
-Lutz, W. (2021)
-Kirk, D. (1996) “Demographic Transition Theory.” Population Studies 50 (3): 361-
-Lee, R. (2003) The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 17:167-190
-Lee, R. (2015). Becker and the Demographic Transition. Journal of Demographic Economics, 81(1), 67-74. doi:10.1017/dem.2014.9
-Delventhal, M. J., Fernández-Villaverde, J., & Guner, N. (2021). Demographic transitions across time and space (No. w29480). National Bureau of Economic Research.
5．人口配当の理論と少子高齢化
-Kelley, A. (2001) “The Population Debate in Historical Perspective: Revisionism Revisited” Duke Economics Working Paper No. 99-09 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=182633
-Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). The Role of Population in Economic Growth. SAGE Open, 7(4).
-Boyer, G (1989) "Malthus Was Right After All: Poor Relief and Birth Rates in Southeastern England," Journal of Political Economy, 97: 93-114
-Fogel, R and D. Costa (1997) "A Theory of Technophysio Evolution, with some Implications for Forecasting Population, Health Care Costs, and Pension Costs," Demography, 34: 49-66
-Galor, O. (2005). “From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory.” Handbook of Economic Growth Volume 1. Section 4
6．
- Morgan, S. (2003) “Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?” Demography 40(4):589-603
-Günther I, Harttgen K. Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space. Demography. 2016 Feb;53(1):55-83. doi: 10.1007/s13524-015-0451-9. PMID: 26786205.
- Balbo, N., F. Billari, and M. Mills (2013) “Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research.” European Journal of Population 29: 1-38.
- Bloom, D, D. Canning and G. Fink, (2010) , “Implications of population aging for economic growth”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 26, Nnso, 4, pp 583-612. (Consider only pp 599-609)
‐ Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene. 2009. “The End of “Lowest-Low” Fertility?” Population and Development Review 35(4): 663 – 699 Consider only pp. 663-672)
8．将来人口の推計
-Lutz, W. (2021) Chapter 3.
-Wachter, K.W. (2014). Essential Demographic Methods. Harvard University Press. (Chapters 5 (Population Projection) and page 169-173(Lee-Carter Model))
-Myrskylä, M. and Goldstein, J. and Cheng, Y. (2013) New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world: rises, falls, and reversals Population and Development Review, 39 (1). 31-56.
-Fogel, R. (2003) “Forecasting the demand for health care in OECD nations and China,” Contemporary Economic Policy 21: 1–10
7．少子化対策
-Bergsvik, J., Fauske, A., & Hart, R. K. (2021). Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature. Population and Development Review, 47(4), 913-964.
-Doepke, M., Hannusch, A., Kindermann, F., & Tertilt, M. (2022). The economics of fertility: A new era (No. w29948). National Bureau of Economic Research.
-Gong, S. & Wang, S. (2021). Family policy awareness and marital intentions: A national survey experimental study. Demography, 59(1): 247-266.
-Präg P, Mills MC. Assisted reproductive technology in Europe: usage and regulation in the context of cross-border reproductive care. In: Kreyenfeld M, Konietzka D (eds). Childlessness in Europe: Contexts, Causes, and Consequences. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017a,289–309.
-国立社会保障・人口問題研究所（2022）「将来人口推計とその仕組み」 https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/12601000/000954798.pdf
9. 人間の寿命とその決定要因
-Mathers, C. D., & Loncar, D. (2006). Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Medicine, 3, e442.
-Crimmins, Eileen M. (2015) “Lifespan and Healthspan: Past, Present, and Promise.” The Gerontologist 55: 901–11.
-Ferrucci, L, Gonzalez-Freire, M, Fabbri, E, et al. (2020) Measuring biological aging in humans: A quest. Aging Cell
-Vaupel, J. W., Villavicencio, F., & Bergeron-Boucher, M.-P. (2021). Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(9)
10．結婚と離婚
-Chiappori, P.-A. (2020). The Theory and Empirics of the Marriage Market. Annual Review of Economics, 12(1), 547-578.
- Coontz, S. 2004. “The World Historical Transformation of Marriage.” Journal of Marriage and Family 66: 974-979.
- Cox, D. 2007. “Biological Basics and the Economics of the Family.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 21 (Spring): 91-108
-Sassler, S., & Lichter, D. T. (2020). Cohabitation and marriage: Complexity and diversity in union‐formation patterns. Journal of Marriage and Family, 82(1), 35-61.
- Stevenson, B. and J. Wolfers. 2007. Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 21(2): 27-52.
- 五十嵐、迫田（２０２３）不倫―実証分析が示す全貌.. 中央公論新社.
11. ビジネスと人口学
-Martins, J.M., Yusuf, F., Brooks, G., Swanson, D.A. (2017). Demographics and Market Segmentation: China and India. In: Swanson, D. (eds) The Frontiers of Applied Demography. Applied Demography Series, vol 9. Springer, Cham
-Pennington-Gray, L., J. Fridgen and D. Stynes, 'Cohort Segmentation: An Application to Tourism', Leisure Sciences, 25, 4 (2003) 341–62.
-Merrick, T and S.Tordella. (1988). “Demographics: People and Markets,” Population Bulletin, Vol.43, No. 1, Population Reference Bureau
-Berg M. (1980) "How AT&T Uses Demographics". American Demographics, March 1980
-Campanellia, M. (1991), "The Senior Markets: Rewriting the Demographics and Definitions", Sales and Marketing Management, vol. 143, no.2, p.63-69
-Wiesendanger, B. (1993). “Asian-Americans: The Three Biggest Myths.” Sales and Marketing Management. (September): 86-92.
-Crispell, D., (1989) "Women in Charge," American Demographics, September 1989
-Mankiw, G. and Weil, D., “The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market,” Regional Science and Urban Economics 19 (1989): 235-238.
12. 貧困の計測
-Deaton, A. (2001), "Counting the World's Poor: Problems and Possible Solutions," World Bank Research Observer 16, 125-148
-Anand, S. & Sen, A. (1997). "Concepts of Human Development and Poverty: A Multidimensional Perspective". Human Development Papers. New York: UNDP.
-Alkire, S. & Santos, M. E. (2010). "Multidimensional Poverty Index". OPHI Research Brief.
-Reddy, S. and T. Pogge (2002), "Unknown: The Extent, Distribution and Trend of Global Income Poverty", http://www.columbia.edu/~sr793/povpop.pdf
13. 都市化・国内移住
-Bloom, D. , D. Canning, and G. Fink. (2008). “Urbanization and the Wealth of Nations.” Science 319(5864):772–75.
-Acevedo-Garcia, D., K. Lochner, T. Osypuk and S.V. Subramanian. (2003). "Future Directions in Residential Segregation and Health Research: A Multi-level Approach. American Journal of Public Health 93(2):215-221.
-Montgomery, M. (2008). “The Urban Transformation of the Developing World.” Science 319:761-764. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1153012
-Gunther F, I. Gunther, and K. Hill. 2014. Slum Residence and Child Health in Developing Countries. Demography 51:1175-1197.
14. 国際移住
-Abel, G. and Sander, N. (2014). Quantifying Global International Migration Flows. Science 343:1520-1522.
-Massey, D., J. Arango, G Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino and J. Edward Taylor. 1993. “Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal.” Population and Development Review 19(3):431-466.
-Coleman, D. 2006. “Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: A third demographic transition.” Population and Development Review 32: 401-446.
-Fargues, P. 2011. “International Migration and the Demographic Transition: A Two Way Interaction.” International Migration Review 45(3): 588-614
15. 人権と人口学
-Cook, R. and MF Fathalla ‘(1996) Advancing Reproductive Rights beyond Cairo and Beijing’ International Family Planning Perspectives 115–21.
-Heisel, D. (2007) “Population and Human Rights” in “Population and Development: challenges and Opportunities – population and Human Rights”, Heisel, D. http://www.eolss.net/sample-chapters/c11/E1-13-02-07.pdf
-「憲法の健康権条文は人々の健康を改善するか？ 」週刊 東洋経済 (7088) 78-79 2022【人権・健康権】
16. まとめ